China’s Vision of Victory

Published on
November 19th, 2020
Duration
75 minutes

China’s Vision of Victory

Mike Green in Conversation ·
Featuring Jonathan Ward

Published on: November 19th, 2020 • Duration: 75 minutes

Dr. Jonathan Ward, founder of the Atlas Organization, is one of the foremost thought leaders on U.S.-China relations. His book, "China's Vision of Victory", has been lauded at the highest levels of government for its clear outline of not only China’s geopolitical ambitions and the potential effects on the western democracies, but for its policy prescriptions of economic containment as well as compelling arguments for the roles that businesses need to play in managing the growing threat posed by China. In this Interview with Mike Green of Logica Capital Advisors, Ward argues that the battle with China will be an economic one and that countries and corporations that do not plan accordingly may find themselves on the wrong foot as western attitudes rapidly shift. Although Ward and Green agree on the danger posed by China, Ward is much more optimistic about the current sense of urgency among western corporations and governments. Together, they debate whether western democratic allies can get organized without a push from unwanted catalysts like military aggression. Filmed on November 16, 2020. Key Learnings: Although Ward argues that the paradigm shift in views towards China predates COVID-19, this shift has been accelerated by the virus not only in the U.S. but also in other crucial geographies like Europe and India -- this trajectory should continue under a Biden administration. As this shift continues, countries that believe they can count on the U.S. for security while appeasing China as their main trade partner may soon find that this option is no longer on the table.

Comments

Transcript

  • ND
    Nivtej D.
    2 December 2020 @ 21:07
    A good interview. The tone is feels defeatist to me at times. Great powers behave in some of the ways mentioned. And really no one country is morally superior to another. In the scope of history self interest his the commonality. Morality tends to follow economic hegemony. Thx
  • DW
    Denton W.
    1 December 2020 @ 05:12
    Mike has by far the clearest thinking on China by anyone I have heard or read yet.
  • WC
    Wilson C.
    19 November 2020 @ 14:13
    Let me share a different perspective for the international RV subs to consider, IMHO most americans have already made up their mind re: China ("the enemy is at the gate") from comments on prior video's. When smart people like Mike Green, Kyle Bass have such conviction in their belief (which doesn't align with my feet on the streets view in HK/China/Asia) I pay attention re: how does this affect the investment landscape and where should I invest. TLDR: - This interview and others, if reflective of US future policy direction, supports Louis Gave view that there will be 3 eco-zones in the future, Asia/China, Europe, US/Americas. What reinforces this view, is throughout the interview, it's "containment", maintain our influence, etc, etc which just justifies China policy in pursuing self-reliance. Not about co-existence, or welcome to the big boys league, it's containment = how do we maintain our superpower position. which other country can provide alternative GPS system, swift, etc? Europe has to get agreement with too many countries, realistically only USA and China (maybe in the future, Russia again, or India). - I don't think western countries understand China's relationships in Asia. Chinese mercantilists are in every asian country, and have been trading for longer than US has been a country. What we call the "wa qui'", the chinese that have become indonesian, malaysian, filipino, thai with local names, etc dominate the businesses there. IE, good luck painting China/chinese people as the enemy. This is important because it means Asia will continue to trade with China (both because it's a big market, and because of cultural ties). OBOR will have some success. - Asian countries want a strong China to counter-balance USA. Not sure why americans would think asian countries view USA as the better option, in general there's been no choice. It's only been ~70 years re: Japan and ~ 50 re: Vietnam wars, asians tend to have long memories. - There's been a shift in perception from "USA is the world protector" to a wariness of USA motives. Trump's MAGA approach just ripped the blindfold off, but it's been eroding since Iraq/WMD, Snowden/NSA eavesdropping, US disregard for world organizations rulings/held to accountability (WTO, WHO, etc), weaponizing what was perceived to be global systems, ie SWIFT with Iraq, or with the Asian crisis forcing asian countries to suffer through currency devaluations but print like crazy for their own crisis, etc. Loss of credibility. - The chinese are students of history, you can bet they've studied how misguided the USA policy was towards Japan in the 80's, with a group of Japan hands (not unlike Dr. Ward's being a china hand) driving policy decisions. R.Taggart Murphy's book "Japan and the shackles of the past" gives insight to this. Or the south american campaigns, or the middle east conflicts, etc. or "The American Trap" by Frederic Pierucci (Alstom), eerily similar to the current Huawei / Meng Wanzhou issue. - You can view China's actions as wanting to dethrone USA, or you can take George Friedman's geo-political analysis that China understands it needs to secure it's access (sea and land) to avoid being contained in war scenarios. Not sure if americans understand how locals perceive US warships in close waters would be like seeing russian subs/ships in the waters off Cuba. - Judging by the flow of money flowing into HK for chinese company IPO's, so much that HKMA is intervening to sell HKD to prevent it from getting too strong, and no exodus of companies leaving China, it seems the risk (from being an outsider in HK) is USA trying to create a flashpoint (per Mike Green comment to rally other countries) and unintentionally starting a more serious conflict, not just with China, but in Asia. I would be very interested to see RV interview people like Kishore Mahbubani ("Has China Won?" and "Has the West Lost it?") of Singapore, or Kai-Fu Lee ("AI Superpowers"), whom will provide IMHO a different perspective. If China continues to execute and OBOR moves ahead, then all asian countries economies will do well, ie, good investment opps vs the wild casino that is the us markets today. RV seems to be much less international and more US-centric (no doubt due to the majority of viewers), I would like to get more of the old RV, when you had Raoul do a piece on India/Monsoon, or Grant Williams interviews, or investing in Africa/emerging markets... oh well.
    • PV
      P V.
      19 November 2020 @ 14:47
      Excellent comment & suggestions!
    • sh
      steve h.
      19 November 2020 @ 16:22
      alot of stupid words
    • JL
      J L.
      19 November 2020 @ 17:11
      I would say your comments and suggestions are by and large fair -- and yet they do not challenge the containment notion. The United States and China will square off, and see each other as dangerous, because they are rival superpowers. That is simply the game theory reality of the situation. You wind up with containment scenarios even with the best of intentions. With that said, there is no doubt that China-based commentators could do their own version of Real Vision interviews talking about the dangers and hypocrises and threats of the United States. Regarding all Asian countries doing well, it is interesting that Michael Pettis (noted China expert, teaaching in China) thinks very little of RCEP (the big Asia-Pacific free trade agreement). Pettis is skeptical because most Asian nations are surplus countries determined to run a positive export balance. That doesn't work in terms of local trade though. You can't have a bunch of surplus countries with mercantilist trade policies function coherently as a group unless you find a trading partner willing to absorb deficits (traditionally the role of the USA).
    • TR
      Theodore R.
      19 November 2020 @ 17:41
      @steve h... if this is all that you can offer, better be silent
    • MG
      Michael G. | Contributor
      19 November 2020 @ 18:05
      Great comment and very good suggestions. We will reach out to both authors you recommend. Definitely open to other conversations as well if you have other suggestions.
    • LF
      Liam F.
      19 November 2020 @ 21:32
      Hey @realVision: Can you guys please warn this Steve H character? It's nothing but insulting, ad hominem attacks and Trump-like responses. OK to have a counter argument / narrative. Just express it politely and without name calling please!
    • TP
      Timothy P.
      20 November 2020 @ 05:31
      Keep thinking they're just fine until they expand their colonization efforts to your borders. I hope the US pulls all military assistance, it might make Europeans have to rethink their simple-simon view of this totalitarian empire.
    • MP
      Mitchell P.
      30 November 2020 @ 02:21
      Asian countries want a strong China to counterbalance the US? On what do you base that? I think that's patently wrong. The prosperity of SE Asia post war has been built of the back of the stability and spread of democracy enabled by US regional security. Does Japan want a stronger China? What about India - you think they want a stronger China? Vietnam ? China invaded them in the late 70's, Philippines - trying to deal with Chinese patrol boats accompanying fishing fleets into contested waters ? You think the citizens of Hong Kong are enjoying a stronger China? And Taiwan etc etc And I'm an Aussie we live in this part of the world and I can assure you a stronger China isn't high on our Christmas wish list as a country.
  • SM
    S M.
    23 November 2020 @ 08:58
    Is the average RV subscriber really that interested in listening to a talking head with no skin in the game? It might have been interesting if there were some discussion about ramifications of RCEP but I guess that would have burst the beltway bubble so was off limits for this talk. I've read the book and while it does collect interesting pieces of information about China's espionage capabilities, any claims that the US has moral high ground are deeply hypocritical considering that even more intrusive capabilities have been deployed against friend and foe alike since the beginning of the Cold War. The scale of China's human rights abuses are comparable to the abuses suffered by Native Americans, African-Americans and other minorities throughout American history. I'd really like to see less of this pointless China bashing content.
    • SM
      S M.
      25 November 2020 @ 18:48
      Not comparable
    • MP
      Mitchell P.
      30 November 2020 @ 00:19
      what aboutism
  • AW
    Abigail W.
    19 November 2020 @ 11:18
    The number one always considers the number two a the biggest threat.
    • MP
      Mitchell P.
      29 November 2020 @ 22:00
      As the interview points out this isn't a matter of conjecture it's all on the public record from the Chinese. They are saying it openly !
  • MR
    Marco R.
    19 November 2020 @ 18:13
    From an Europe perspective: US has bullied us around big time the last four years (tariffs, Nord Stream2, TTIP, etc). Many people are very disappointed about the US and the tone from Washington. It is so obvious, that China already is to strong to be stopped. US has so many problems internally, that there is no way, that the US can stop the rise of China. And Europe won’t jump on the US side. They will try to stay as neutral as possible.
    • MG
      Michael G. | Contributor
      19 November 2020 @ 18:47
      Marco, appreciate your thoughts. If China is "too strong to be stopped", what do you think will happen to Europeans who share a continent with them?
    • JA
      John A.
      19 November 2020 @ 19:22
      If Europe wants to remain neutral, they are going to want to start building up their defense spending. As it stands, Europe has enjoyed a period of being able to rely on US guarantees in exchange for living within the US administered world order. If Europe expects to decouple, they are going to have to be strong enough to not have to pick a side. A Russia allied with China in opposition to the United States would be a big problem for Europe to deal with if they choose to play hardball and force countries like Italy or Greece to accept bases on their soil in exchange for help. I actually don't think Europe is going to enjoy the idea of being under China's influence if the choice is between the United States and China at the end of the day. Especially if they complain about the deal they get with the US now. And I really don't see the EU being able to agree on a massive defense spending package when they have a hard time agreeing on the problems they face now. Europe needs to decide if they want to be a strong unified nation-state or a bunch of weaker states that live inside their own bubbles and under the protection of a stronger ally who can force project and defend them from abroad. Right now, they are kind of trying to have their cake and eat it too. Trump and the US are a convenient scapegoat, but in many cases, we are all in the same boat we created together collectively. As for China being "too strong to stop", I think we disagree here. China is an exporter who has demographics that resemble Japan in the 90's, and they have benefited greatly from the IP transfer from foreign corporations in exchange for jumpstarting their growth. They have yet to prove that they can lead. They still do not allow open capital accounts so that money can travel freely abroad. They still control their population and do not allow disagreement to be aired publically. They do not respect the rule of law or property rights. If you disagree with any of that, just look at the ANT IPO as an example of how they are willing to bite their own nose to spite their face when someone objects with the party.
    • MR
      Marco R.
      19 November 2020 @ 19:40
      Michael, nothing will change for us. We are neighbors with Russia and we have found a way to life together. Some times it is better, some times it is not so close, but at the end, they we will always share the continent. The same is valid for China. They are so much bigger, stronger and more powerful than we are. The Chinese are going to continue by our companies and dominate certain sectors (some sectors are dominated by the US). I don't believe, that Europe will be a second Tibet.
    • LS
      L S.
      19 November 2020 @ 19:42
      The idea that the US "bullied" with tariffs is laughable, and short sighted to boot. If one is honest, the US just decided to do what Europe and others had already been doing = not be a sap or stupid anymore. That being understood as bullying is laughable, just clown world stuff of political emotion or insecurity.
    • MR
      Marco R.
      19 November 2020 @ 21:20
      L S. I only want to share how the majority in Europe thinks. We were not thrilled about the last 4 years. I lived in the US for two years. I know both sides. But sorry, 20 years ago we have glorified United States for everything they have. This perspective has definitely changed. I am also not saying, that we will jump into China's arms. I am saying, that EU is most likely trying to stay neutral as long as possible and don't pick any side.
    • RS
      Roger S.
      20 November 2020 @ 03:41
      to marco R yes stay neutral as long as you have the US protection
    • MR
      Marco R.
      20 November 2020 @ 06:46
      @ Roger: Could be, yes. This sounds like EU. The states only decide something, if they have to.
    • CS
      Christopher S.
      24 November 2020 @ 03:28
      @Marco Where is your military bro? You're welcome for the Marshall Plan.
    • MR
      Marco R.
      27 November 2020 @ 18:37
      We don’t have a great military. We are not a super power. US is the super power. China is the rising super power and Europe is/was the alliance of US. After the last six years many people are doubting, if US is really our friend. Look at NordStream2: We are not allowed to build a pipeline. US puts sanctions on all people and companies involved in. China doesn’t 🤔. The majority of Europe doesn’t want to pick a side between US or China
  • EP
    Erewhon888 P.
    26 November 2020 @ 14:32
    Interview suggestion: Admiral Owens Admiral William A. Owens is the Executive chairman of Red Bison Advisory Group, a company which identifies opportunities with proven enterprises in China, the Middle East, and the United States, and Red Bison Technology Group which installs and operates high speed networks in large office complexes. He was the long-time Chairman of CenturyLink Telecom, the third largest telecommunications company in the United States. Owens serves on the board of directors at Wipro Technologies and is a director of several private companies. He serves on the non profit boards of EastWest Institute, Seattle University, the Center for Excellence in Education, and several others. He is a member of the Council of Foreign Relations. Until 2015, Owens was the Chairman and Senior Partner of AEA Investors Asia, in Hong Kong, and Vice Chairman of the NYSE for Asia. Owens served as the Chairman of Eastern Airlines as well as 23 public boards including Daimler, British American Tobacco, Telstra, Nortel Networks, and Polycom. Owens was the CEO of Nortel, a Fortune 500 Telecoms company, CEO/Chairman of Teledesic LLC, a Bill Gates/Craig McCaw company, was the President of Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC). And served on the boards of the non-for-profit organizations; Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Carnegie Corporation of New York, Brookings Institution, and RAND Corporation. Owens is a four-star US Navy veteran. He was Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the second-ranking United States military officer. He is widely recognized for bringing commercial high-grade technology into the Department of Defense for military applications. Owens was the architect of the Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA), an advanced systems technology approach to military operations, the most significant change in the system of requirements, budgets and technology for the four armed forces since World War II. He served as Commander of the U.S. Sixth Fleet from 1990 to 1992, which included Operation Desert Storm. Owens also served as the deputy chief of Naval Operations for Resources. Owens was senior military assistant to two Secretaries of Defense (Cheney and Carlucci). He was a nuclear submariner. Including tours as Commanding Officer aboard the USS Sam Houston, USS Michigan, and USS City of Corpus Christi. Owens is a 1962 honor graduate of the United States Naval Academy, has a BA/MA from Oxford University, and an MBA from George Washington University. He has written more than 50 articles on national security and authored the book “High Seas.” His book, “Lifting the Fog of War,” was published in April 2000 with a revision published in Mandarin in 2009. Owens has received numerous recognitions and awards: the “Légiond’Honneur” by France, and the highest awards given to foreigners by the countries of Indonesia and Sweden. He was named as one of The 50 Most Powerful People in Networking by Network World, one of the 100 Best Board Members in the United States for 2011 and again in 2016 awarded by NACD, and the Intrepid Salute Award in recognition of his business achievements and support of important philanthropic activities. Owens is active in philanthropy to foster Chinese-American relations including over 10 years of dialogues between the most senior retired officers in the United States and Chinese militaries.
  • SM
    S M.
    25 November 2020 @ 18:55
    Great Interview. China is more dangerous threat to Uyghur Nation and the world than Nazi did To Jews and the world about 100 years ago. I guess every hundred year or so a totalitarian super power emerges but ultimately world waken to it after a period of denial.
  • DR
    Dick R.
    25 November 2020 @ 06:36
    Mike, yammering about personal freedoms means nothing if you're dead. As long as the word "contagion" is a meaningful threat, our political hobbyhorses are meaningless, if not outright counter-productive. Moving two years down the line, once this pandemic is past us, it should be obvious that the United States is about the least hospitable ground for collectivism on Earth. The U.S. has repeatedly flirted with fascism - Sinclair Lewis saw it, Trump has articulated it. Every attempt to adapt government to the needs of the 99% has been greeted with reactionary cries of "socialism." If there is a menace to American electoral democracy, it comes from the right, not the left. Since opposition to China is bi-partisan, I don't see any reason to doubt Biden's resolve to confront the problem, even if his remedies do not echo Trump's brain-dead tariffs. Industry understands the need to reconfigure supply chains, and they tend to dictate to government, not the other way round. This is a golden opportunity to suspend judgment.
  • EP
    Erewhon888 P.
    24 November 2020 @ 22:12
    I lived in Hong Kong for 16 years working in areas of strategy both with private sector and regional governments. For a useful corrective to this type of academic American policy activism, look to the range of videos available from the Foreign Correspondents Club in Hong Kong. The FCC has a Youtube channel with many relevant videos from much less biased and better qualified people. A good start would be with the recent interview of Admiral Bill Owens: "Are China and the United States destined for conflict or cooperation? No other geopolitical question is perhaps more pressing in our time. Join us for a conversation with Bill Owens, whose new book US-China 2039: The Endgame? looks at the next two decades of foreign policy between the superpowers and gives a view of “what it will be like then.” Admiral Bill Owens provides 12 policy recommendations in that time to avoid future conflict and confrontation, with the hope that a constructive relationship could be developed between the world’s two largest economies. Moderated by FCC president, Jodi Schneider." https://youtu.be/cN6S1KOtmOM
  • ds
    durgesh s.
    24 November 2020 @ 05:06
    Very Good Conversations enough of agreements and disagreements between the two Experts on China for a viewer to get a fair idea of what is going on nice choice of Guest and Host
  • PG
    Pavel G.
    23 November 2020 @ 20:39
    The entire conversation is quite biased and it's starting to look like a conspiracy theory throughout the video. As a citizen of Europe (Russia), I can see US invading multiple countries without a legal ground by UN, killing officials from other countries at it's own will, incarcerating millions of it's own citizens (leading the world with that number), demonstrating shocking examples of police brutality, secretly spying on it's own citizens and the rest of the world, etc. I can also see China performing multiple human rights violations as well. I don't see much difference from my perspective. Selling the idea that Chinese are "the baddies" compared to the US needs to come with some better arguments.
  • BP
    Brian P.
    21 November 2020 @ 16:34
    Fascinating conversation. They do have a demographic time bomb about to go off. Thanks to their one child policy.
    • DS
      David S.
      23 November 2020 @ 03:12
      Maybe they are looking at GDP per capita. DLS
  • AP
    Andrew P.
    23 November 2020 @ 02:32
    Great message from Chamath in his interview with Raoul: "There is always a vocal minority who basically needs to have a view to sound smart. Most of the time, they are pretty fucking stupid. To be honest with you. The loudest people are never the smartest people. They are just the ones that want to be heard because they want attention for some other set of reasons that come from their own psychology and insecurity. Anybody who spends the time to learn about anything always comes off as pretty moderate and boring because they tend to just come to a balanced perspective. The more you learn, the more confusing things are, so that the more almost conservative in the presentation of the facts one is. It is when you are just starting to learn about something and you think that you can be heard that you start to just spout off and frankly, to the people that know more, you just sound like a dumbass."
  • GA
    Gerald A.
    23 November 2020 @ 02:22
    The "Inside-the-Beltway-bubble" thinking (represented by Ward) seems totally at odds with the "Davos-crowd-Big-Reset" thinking. The Laurentian elites (our Deep State) in Canada (and our prime minister) have pretty much already been captured and compromised by Chinese money. China is facing a Western "Maginot Line" built of "Swiss cheese". They won't even have to go around it. They may already have an invitation to the Oval Office from Hunter Biden.
  • CX
    Cindy X.
    21 November 2020 @ 01:14
    This guy Ward is a war hawk himself, he can't possibly understand the world in any other way. Too bad RV has someone like him spreading false narrative. The Chinese just starting to have a good life, what incentives do they have to get in a war and ruin their future?
    • MF
      Michael F.
      21 November 2020 @ 16:08
      China will use war to subjugate Asia. It starts with Hong Kong then goes to Taiwan. The Chinese Government is a malevolent force in the world and cannot exist for long without war.
    • Dd
      Daniel d.
      22 November 2020 @ 03:17
      communists will gladly subjugate whoever they can, if you disagree with them off to the gulag.
    • CC
      Cornelius C.
      22 November 2020 @ 13:01
      Are you in/from China/asia ? are you chinese/asian? theyre both more right than wrong unfortunately
  • TS
    Tom S.
    21 November 2020 @ 13:18
    Completely agree with this esp Mike Green. I work with Chinese- extremely xenophobic - China first, family second, self third. All married to expansion and subordination of democratic institutions. I find them very racist. Frankly they just laugh at us.
    • CC
      Cornelius C.
      22 November 2020 @ 12:58
      Coming from an asian in asia, hes right, most of us think the west really screwed up the coronavirus response because theyre bungling idiots. the election was another episode of prime time comedy
  • AG
    Alan G.
    22 November 2020 @ 12:09
    I think of you read history for a very long time, the idea of unified approach, Calais system, all your basic discussions have been part of the dynastic culture for time immemorial. They have never adopted the western ways.
  • ND
    Nicole D.
    20 November 2020 @ 21:22
    I'm confused as to why Real Vision, a global financial analysis platform, keeps allowing itself to be used for anti-China / pro U.S. hegemony propaganda. Here Mike Green is suggesting we do not invest in Chinese stocks despite their good performance so the U.S. does not have to worry about competition from China. Does anyone else think that is wrong? Mike, how about a world including China and Russia instead of a world of just U.S. hegemony? Have you considered that?
    • pt
      popejumpingjohnpaul t.
      21 November 2020 @ 20:59
      i notice you dont dispute any of the information on a factual basis. unsurprisingly.
    • Dd
      Daniel d.
      22 November 2020 @ 03:18
      the US is not perfect but they do not use concentration camps as spare organ farms
  • DG
    Dave G.
    19 November 2020 @ 20:44
    Mike the Keto diet is making your eyes super blue lol.
    • GA
      Gerald A.
      22 November 2020 @ 02:43
      I thought perhaps he had just been spending some time on Arrakis.
  • NJ
    Nicolas J.
    21 November 2020 @ 21:43
    Why is he whispering?
  • MJ
    Marcus J.
    20 November 2020 @ 04:14
    Mike, have a chat to Peter Zeihan for a different perspective on China's future and the geopolitical/geographic realities it faces. You've raised many valid points here, particularly regarding China's human rights abuses but I don't believe that the world is in any danger of being dominated by China. The greatest barrier to confronting the CCP over it's human rights violations is our own greed, it is certainly not their military might or strategic position both of which are wildly overblown. One has to wonder if that greed is not at least subconsciously influencing the latter misconception.
    • JC
      Jason C.
      20 November 2020 @ 05:27
      I agree with this take, but it is worth noting that China's military and strategic positions are not insignificant - they're just not enough for right now. As for how long they remains the case, I have no clue.
    • DA
      David A.
      21 November 2020 @ 10:30
      "The greatest barrier to confronting the CCP over it's human rights violations is our own greed". Yes, exactly.
    • MG
      Michael G. | Contributor
      21 November 2020 @ 21:41
      Marcus, appreciate the thoughtful comments. I actually agree that China is unlikely to represent a sustained threat UNLESS they succeed in a breakout play. Aggressive containment is likely adequate, but part of the reason I focus in this area is to make people aware of the need to contain. Two years ago, this was less clear to many (see earlier interviews with Josh Wolfe). My hope is that China has been forced to move early and probability of failure is higher. My fear is that a tired America is not up for the sustained effort.
  • DW
    David W.
    20 November 2020 @ 16:16
    I've traveled regularly to China, > 4x per year for the past decade. I speak Mandarin and can understand fluently. Jonathan's understanding of "talk of war" is not quite nuanced enough. When Chinese speak of war, it often starts with commentary on America's wars and shifts to what happens if America turns its military industrial complex (the Chinese have a mature understanding of this dynamic) to China. Very few Chinese citizens speak of war as a positive goal, even against Taiwan. My understanding is unprovoked, proactive, colonial style war is simply not in the Chinese DNA, CCP or otherwise.
    • AW
      Abigail W.
      21 November 2020 @ 10:08
      I second this. If you don't understand the history and culture, you should be cautious making any assumption about China. However two American talking about China, I didn't expect anything else. RV should let someone more neutral interview the geopolitical experts from the rest of the world, to see how the rest of the world thinks about USA and China. In Europe there are not many USA fans left, and at the same time China is gaining influence by supporting and investing the economically weaker countries in the south. Disclaimer: I am Chinese neutralized in Germany.
  • MB
    Mike B.
    21 November 2020 @ 05:08
    Wow. The fight is coming.
  • AK
    Arthur K.
    21 November 2020 @ 02:45
    Reading "The Hundred-Year Marathon". some similarities , but this book is now on my to read list. 👍
  • MC
    Mike C.
    19 November 2020 @ 22:47
    Thanks Mike ..... you are doing an awesome job. Another great book is "Hidden Hand" by Clive Hamilton and Mareike Ohlberg. Clive is professor of public ethics at Charles Sturt University in Canberra, Australia. His Twitter handle is @CliveCHamilton. His website is www.clivehamilton.com. Would be great to have Clive on RV. 🙏🙏🙏
    • tc
      thomas c.
      21 November 2020 @ 00:20
      Michael Pillsbury maybe the most experienced voice on China. I forgot the name of his book I think the 100 year march or something like that . No one understand them better.
  • PG
    Philippe G.
    20 November 2020 @ 16:42
    Fantastic deep-dive!
  • WD
    William D.
    19 November 2020 @ 14:22
    Second the comment below.. I’m pro American and democracratic institutions, but... It’s easily arguable that the Communist Party is the greatest thing to happen to the Chinese nation since the Tang Dynasty. This is not a political statement. It’s humanitarian. Highlighting Xinjiang, Tibet etc. ignores the fact that hundreds of millions of Chinese, in one generation, have been lifted from agrarian poverty into the advanced, comfortable modern world - all while manufacturing your Air Jordans and iPhones for you. It also ignores the humanitarian record of the United States (i.e. Black Lives Matter - slavery is still the elephant in the room). All great powers do bad things. It’s also worth noting that India’s democracy has been far less effective than China’s Communist governance since WW2. Where’s the discussion of the enormous challenge of uniting 1.3bn people in a cohesive society? There are uncomfortable strategies that need to be used, similar to those used in the US - militaristic, patriotic language is fundamental to certain national identities. The simple comment that China ‘is dangerous’ overlooks its long history. China’s historical periods of meek, disengaged foreign policy led to poor outcomes - this is an inconvenient fact for observers of China when fearful of its current, aggressive stance. It never benefited from the colonisation of an enormous, virgin, resource-rich, continent, like the US, which swept native people under the rug, used race-based slavery to build its economy and usurped proven British governance institutions for the sole benefit of its landed gentry. Realvision is a wonderful resource, but obnoxious hypocrisy in an interview that intends to be an intellectual discussion is not ideal.
    • sh
      steve h.
      19 November 2020 @ 16:16
      sorry its not a simple comment . they are a pure evil Govt. You may sound so intellectual but NOT. The world needs to put a wall around them and strangle them
    • JL
      J L.
      19 November 2020 @ 16:59
      The Uyghurs see things differently...
    • BS
      Boris S.
      19 November 2020 @ 17:45
      Well, I liked your first comment up above, but man, " Communist Party is the greatest thing to happen to the Chinese nation, and its humanitarian statement"... I am not expert in Chinese history before 1930, so maybe if it was a huge country of hell, you could say that, but things that happened from the reign of Mao ce Tung and his policies, to nowadays Uyghur & HK policy is a bundle of communist pathological cancer. As a fellow democrat from Europe it is unacceptable.
    • TP
      Timothy P.
      20 November 2020 @ 05:29
      You are a complete simpleton if you think that the communist party is benevolent in any measure. Let me guess, you're holding bags of Chinese stocks you hope will perform well. This attitude of money over ethics sickens me.
    • WD
      William D.
      20 November 2020 @ 13:35
      To comments above: If you look at the world through an idealistic lens, then you’ll find horror in almost every corner. A pragmatic view of what is possible given a set of of circumstances, rather than what an ideal is, paints things in a different light. Regardless, visit the corners of the globe and see what you think.
  • LH
    Luke H.
    19 November 2020 @ 13:58
    Objective non-US observers are aware that both the US & China are violent and repressive empires in the global sense. The US arguably far more violent than China. The framework for this interview seems very much US interest-focused. Non-US viewers may be more circumspect about which empire is more of a net negative for the world.
    • sh
      steve h.
      19 November 2020 @ 16:23
      You are a dumb dumb
    • LF
      Liam F.
      19 November 2020 @ 21:28
      @steve h: another ad hominem?!? Can't formulate an argument?
    • TP
      Timothy P.
      20 November 2020 @ 05:36
      Please point me to the part where the US is live-organ harvesting its citizens. Please point me to the part where the US is issuing "National Security Laws" and arresting lawmakers who support democratic representation. Please point me to the part where the US is using high-energy weapons on contested borders with India. Your whole "objectivity" is really you talking your book -- the people I've found who defend China the most are the ones who are deepest in their pockets.
    • LH
      Luke H.
      20 November 2020 @ 11:55
      Timothy P. My book is all over the place, and really my perspective predates having a book - my background is as a student of history. Internally and externally, the US is a brutal regime. Particularly as an occupying and murderous force in the developing world. I won't bore you with the obscene numbers of people murdered in the middle east, Latin America, Asia, 20% of the North Korean population wiped out - look it up if you don't believe me. At home the US has the biggest per capita prison population on earth, and that population is monetised to produce goods for slave wages. I'm not saying China is any better. An empire is an empire, and once you reach a certain scale, power must be maintained by any means necessary.
  • MR
    Marco R.
    19 November 2020 @ 11:24
    As a European it is pretty amusing listening to number one complaining about number two. The US is not even allowing Germany to build North Stream2 or has apologised for spying with NSA in their allies. To interview an European Expert about the rising power of China is much more neutral and objective.
    • TP
      Timothy P.
      20 November 2020 @ 05:37
      It'll be less amusing when China's aims cross your borders or buy your country's assets in extortion-by-economic deals. Now I see why Europe was blind to Germany's ambition pre-war, they were all to used to having peace with no price to pay for it.
    • MR
      Marco R.
      20 November 2020 @ 06:50
      Timothy: I agree. A matter of fact, Chinese companies are already buying on a big scale companies, ports, properties, etc in EU. (btw: like they have done in US, AUD, CAD)
  • DF
    Daniel F.
    19 November 2020 @ 17:40
    It would be interesting to get an alternative view on this topic from people such as Chinese or other east asian nationals who don't have too much skin in the game.
    • pt
      popejumpingjohnpaul t.
      19 November 2020 @ 18:08
      "who dont have skin in the game?!"
    • RS
      Roger S.
      20 November 2020 @ 03:40
      to marco R yes stay neutral as long as you have the Us protection
  • NI
    Nate I.
    20 November 2020 @ 02:58
    That was a great interview Mike. I'm grateful that you are educating the RV audience and others about the CCP. I hope the RV audience takes your concerns to heart and allocates capital accordingly. In my view, this topic is far more important than making money.
  • DM
    Darrell M.
    19 November 2020 @ 16:23
    "The Thucydides trap is not going to age well," says 30-ish yeah old man about 2500-year-old observations.
    • LS
      L S.
      19 November 2020 @ 19:46
      That should be a drinking game term for most China/US discussions by so called experts.
    • DS
      David S.
      20 November 2020 @ 00:44
      It did work much better in ancient times. War was win/lose; kill all the men; keep some women and/or children; sell everyone else as slaves. Times were simpler then. No nation building. DLS
  • GB
    Gordon B.
    19 November 2020 @ 16:29
    The Biden family are business partners with China. Rotating my investment portfolio to the Middle Kingdom. When in Rome, do as the Romans do.
    • JL
      J L.
      19 November 2020 @ 16:57
      And Trump isn't? Trump literally had a secret Chinese bank account. Trump paid more taxes to China than federal income tax in the United States, by orders of magnitude, and Forbes estimates China has paid Trump at least $5.4 million under the table since he took office -- which is more than half Biden's reported net worth.
    • sh
      steve h.
      19 November 2020 @ 17:57
      J,L You are a stupid man please cancel your membership
    • LS
      L S.
      19 November 2020 @ 19:45
      The Biden family crime syndicate sold access all over the world to multiple countries, the foremost China, and you have JLs talk about Trump as a response to that. Just laughable, clown world, and what's worst is that it is anti american stuff to the extreme, self suicide because of thoughtless political tribalism.
    • GB
      Gordon B.
      19 November 2020 @ 20:09
      Referencing a lease signed in 2008 for space in Trump Tower to the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China?
    • LF
      Liam F.
      19 November 2020 @ 21:36
      @realVision: Are you going to let this Steve H. guy call everyone he doesn't agree with stupid?
    • JL
      J L.
      19 November 2020 @ 23:23
      All I did was point out some documented facts to counterbalance a one-sided accusation, and someone using the term "family crime syndicate" in conjunction with more hand-waving conspiracy theory accusations is ranting about clownish tribalism? Y'all seriously need a mirror and some reflection.
    • DS
      David S.
      20 November 2020 @ 00:36
      Steven h. - Remember what Mark Twain said. DLS
  • DS
    David S.
    19 November 2020 @ 23:06
    We would not have had to give up our economy and/or freedom during COVID Times if we would have acted quickly and followed the science like Taiwan - never locked down, seven deaths, 25 million population. Both Europe and the US choose to ignore science on national and personal basis. Superspreader events like vacation are not except by science. We are paying the price for disregarding Mother Nature. Not our finest hour. We will get through it. We will fight the next pandemic better. DLS
  • DS
    David S.
    19 November 2020 @ 22:53
    The best wild card in the deck is the US will now be able to construct longer-term policies with our European allies. They are worried about China as well. It is going to take a lot of strategic and practical planning in the West to peacefully balance China's current plan. We abandoned our long-term allies and befriended possible enemies in the last four years. The wars that Mr. Green is talking about are already happening like China vs. India. The tide is turning. Southeast Asia needs and wants to trade with China, but they are worried about Chinese dominance. If all goes well, China may realize that governing 1.5 billion people may be a big enough job. China has already built the second largest economy in the world. DLS
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    19 November 2020 @ 21:51
    This discussion was interesting and enjoyable, but I think the discussion of containment is a moot point: the genie is already out of the bottle, and there will be "an event" or a series of them. Dr. Ward clearly has deep knowledge and understanding of this whole area, but his recommendations, I feel, are likely "too little, too late." Cheers.
  • DS
    David S.
    19 November 2020 @ 21:14
    I would like to compliment all the staff who write the lead-in summaries. They are always helpful and keep my attention focused on the issue at hand. I read them before and after listening to each presentation. Well done! DLS
  • LL
    Ludovico L.
    19 November 2020 @ 20:30
    A useful reminder on the topic of containment strategy during the Cold War era, are the writings of Gaddis and the Long Peace - i.e. effectively how the Cold War stand-off and containment policy arguable led to a longer period of peace then during any other time prior to WW2. Arguable because of course there were "hot" proxy wars (Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, not to mention subversion of split countries and governments towards communism and capitalism, South American countries) but avoided nuclear warfare and MAD (mutually assured destruction). Mike Green is awesome, never ceases to amaze me how he can handle any topic from geopolitical affairs, economic history and complex derivatives strategy! Great job sir! Interesting insight on his former employer - would be interesting to hear more about his background and role at Thiel Capital
  • TP
    Timothy P.
    19 November 2020 @ 18:43
    Appeasing China is a recipe for disaster. Mr. Ward's thesis is more cogently articulated here -- https://www.the-american-interest.com/2018/03/26/end-losing-game-china/ In short, American businesses are blinded by greed and rationalize pumping funds into China in hopes of capturing a small fraction of their massive population. Its all about money flows, and has zero to do with ethics. Unfortunately, this supplicating strategy only allows China to advance -- and critically replenish their capital reserves of dollars -- to continue their oppressive rule at home and beyond. I don't see anyone in the US Financial industry save a few, that are willing to stand up and state the obvious - that any dollars flowing into China enables a repressive regime that has numerous human rights violations and is currently in the process of stamping out democratic rule in Hong Kong, violating the agreement signed with the UK regarding the "One Country, Two Systems" provisions. The idea that containment and appeasement can be proffered as a controlling effort overlooks the true crisis, that millions of Chinese have been subjugated and denied their basic human rights. Any corporation that turns a blind eye to this avalanche of human cruelty certainly deserves to reap the results of such ethical lapse - utter obliteration, economically and literally. The CCP has proven time and time again that they will say anything to gain agreements and compromises, while stabbing their trading partner in the back and stealing whatever isn't nailed down in the process. It would benefit the world if the CCP were defeated, so the Chinese people could finally live in freedom and peace.
    • LS
      L S.
      19 November 2020 @ 19:40
      Thta's why the compromised Joe Biden & family is so dangerous.
  • AR
    Alexander R.
    19 November 2020 @ 19:29
    The one point I would like to make is : Chinese nationalism and empire building mentality is by far more important than communism ideology. Russians adopted Greek Orthodox religion to be different from the West Catholic religion, and so was communism adopted to be different from the West by Chinese. Just a historical example. What drives them is strategic desire of world dominance Communism was tactical adaptation to express the long ng strategical view
  • rs
    richard s.
    19 November 2020 @ 12:16
    He seems to have no knowledge of anything about China.... I am aware that this question is rude... but ... can he even speak either Cantonese or Mandarin? I am VERY curious about where he distilled his thought...
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      19 November 2020 @ 19:19
      Dr. Jonathan Ward is the founder of Atlas Organization, a Washington D.C. and New York based consultancy focused on Chinese and Indian national strategy. He completed his PhD at Oxford, specializing in China-India relations. Initially admitted to Oxford to study Russian and Chinese nationalism, he spent five years studying with the University's master historians, including Rana Mitter, John Darwin, Sir Hew Strachan, Robert Service, and Robert Johnson. Dr. Ward studied Philosophy, Russian, and Chinese language at Columbia University as an undergraduate, and then spent five years living and traveling extensively throughout Russia, China, India, Latin America, and the Middle East. He speaks Russian, Chinese, Spanish, and Arabic. His travels include hitchhiking with truck drivers throughout Tibet and Xinjiang, traveling by cargo ship across the South China Sea, traveling in remote regions of the Russia-China border areas, and living in Damascus, Syria at the start of the Arab Spring.
  • MC
    Mathew C.
    19 November 2020 @ 16:24
    Drinking game is back on, every time Mike says “dynamic” or “function” it’s a shot.
    • DF
      Daniel F.
      19 November 2020 @ 17:34
      also "component"
    • MG
      Michael G. | Contributor
      19 November 2020 @ 18:49
      "Fantastic", etc. Drink!
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      19 November 2020 @ 19:15
      "Ergodic" is my favorite variant of the Mike Green catch phrase game.
  • sh
    steve h.
    19 November 2020 @ 16:21
    China Govt. is a corrupt murderous country. They don’t care about the people. They harvest live organs. Wonder why Israel is the only country will not let there citizens travel there for transplants.
  • MG
    Mohit G.
    19 November 2020 @ 15:58
    The US would do good to develop a deeper economic relationship with India. Can only see this as the counterbalance to China.
  • OT
    Omar T.
    19 November 2020 @ 14:03
    "Becoming China?" Don’t we have significant elements of our national political parties that have lost faith in the two-party system and openly aspire to achieve one party rule through policies like Court packing, immigration and citizenship policy and jerrymandering? Where we create universal reliance on the ruling party through universal basic handouts; Where the population is trained to vote and act based on dictated group identities reinforced by national propaganda machines acting in the service of the party, and morals and values are centralized with competing and independent value structures (Religion and history) systematically undermined, or co-opted for the national one-party project? How can we confront China for global leadership when our house is so divided?
    • WC
      Wilson C.
      19 November 2020 @ 14:19
      totally agree, and really sad to see, for so many years US has lead the way as the "gold standard". The loss of credibility makes for a more unstable global environment. and similar to North Korea/dictatorships, the easy route to distract people is to find an external enemy. For North Koreans, it's the US. for US, it's China.
    • JM
      John M.
      19 November 2020 @ 15:58
      Hard to argue otherwise
  • KD
    Kelley D.
    19 November 2020 @ 14:11
    As we see from below comments..very conflicting views on China's historical perspective..My prescription is a pay per view "Triple Threat Steel Cage Match" with Ray Dalio..
  • PV
    P V.
    19 November 2020 @ 13:48
    China suffered centuries of exploitation and humiliation at the hands of westerners. Primarily the UK and USA who, in order to pursue their interests, got millions of people, quite literally, addicted to drugs. "What's Past is Prologue". Should China not want to make positively sure that the past does not repeat itself? It is preposterous that a basic measure of historical perspective is missing from this pseudo "analysis". Frankly it should have been far more useful and informative if a more balanced counterpart was to interview, and challenge, Mr Ward. I hope RV can do better than this when it comes to the very important topic of China.
  • LH
    Lik H.
    19 November 2020 @ 12:59
    For someone from Asia - I've a very different perspective than the guests. Instead - I'll put forth a very different question. If we put US in the shoe of China - how will it manage the country and establish its mid-term plan? I'll be interested to hear from an American strategist on how US should evolve the country if it is in China's shoe - then we can take some of these suggestions toward the current / past conditions and limitations, and we can then objectively validate whether these are workable.
  • AP
    AJ P.
    19 November 2020 @ 10:36
    I am sure Dr Ward is an expert but there was little depth in this interview. Don't disagree with the expert at a high level, but detailed nuance of the topic was missing.
    • HS
      Hubert S.
      19 November 2020 @ 12:07
      Exactly. The questions, as always with Mike Green, were very good - the answers though, while not wrong, mostly academic and on things we mostly agree. It is much to ask, but as the relationship US-China is the most important thing for the next years and probably decades - can we have even more Mike Green here with more outgoing guests/analysis? To name a few crucial questions: Semiconductors? Oil trade/blockade? How deep is China-Russia alliance? A potential change in US policy towards Russia? Where does China-Japan go from here? How much say may have the Taiwanese in their future? Nuclear deterrence? Personally, I do not think the US can "win" a cold war at this stage against China any longer. So how could a more peaceful coexistence with China as an equal power to the US / West look like?
  • MS
    Marius S.
    19 November 2020 @ 11:47
    Thank you for this interview on a very important and pressing topic.
  • DX
    Dominus X.
    19 November 2020 @ 11:45
    Look into Mike's eyes
  • JF
    Josh F.
    19 November 2020 @ 08:25
    Can we get Peter Zeihan back on to talk about his views on the region? I think he'd have some very interesting thoughts.
    • AA
      Andrew A.
      19 November 2020 @ 10:09
      I'd recommend reading his books (the accidental superpower etc). They're v insightful.
  • GH
    Gregory H.
    19 November 2020 @ 06:50
    Fantastic policy expert. More interviews from policy experts like him is appreciated.
    • MS
      Mike S.
      19 November 2020 @ 08:44
      I second that motion, Greg! Perhaps a China series that integrates both economic and geo-strat experts. Well done to both Messrs Green and Ward for their work.