Comments
Transcript
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MJI enjoyed the final 10 minutes the most - Mike was a gracious host and concluded with their common ground and an emphasis on how their shared views can bring about a better future.
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JYThis is probably the best thing I've seen to date on Real Vision. Grantham bringing the truth and not mincing a single word, illusions of rugged individualism and American exceptionalism be damned.
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KRI'd respectfully disagree with Jeremy Grantham's world view. Jeremy Grantham seems to be apart of a globalist elite who'd rather deal away with individualism and the 'mess', as Mike referred to it. Coupled with Raoul's interview with Chamath the other day, it seems the elite would rather a conformist, passisivit, Confucian, 'do what you're told' society. I don't think we can give China too much credit. After all they released this virus onto the world. And how conformist do you want to get with their 1m people in concentration camps. But according to Chamath anyone that wants to at least question things or have a civil discussion on these matters is a 'dip shit' like all these philosophical questions are a given. I find people at the top of the pyramid making radical changes to society with such broad brushes and doing it with such arrogance with such an air of expertise and know all to be the scariest thing of all through this whole thing. As Hugh Henry would say (and I parapgrase) 'never believe the 'experts''. I'm with Mike. I'm with the mess. The mess is beautiful, allows for individual flair, creativity and ingenuity and allows humanity to express itself. The mess is what advanced us to this point and is what built the greatest civilisation on earth - America. And no, I'm not American. Collectivism and conformity leads us down a dangerous path and don't believe the squeaky clean facade that is China.
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pta very challenging interview for our American friends many of whom are triggered by an honest appraisal of their nation and their national trajectory.
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phHe just has to be one of the most balanced and grounded people I have listened to. What a magnificent person
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DRThe currency of a nation is in fact its stock and worth. USD crashing to multiyear lows against all significant currencies speaks volumes about how bad and weak the US truly is.
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PBThank you RV for getting an interview with Mr. Grantham. I haven't checked the comments to see why so many down votes. Sound quality was decent. So, it can't be that. Picture quality was fine, too. So, can't be that. I would surmise that many of the down votes then must be because he encourages the young generation of upstarts, now, and in the future, to be sure, to get into fields that generate new ideas, solve problems, that create new companies, that create wealth. He's encouraging risk taking among the young in the interest of future economic and social dynamism. This obviously must account for the vast majority of down votes. Fantastic interview. We need more late career, successful people who are wise, and who want to make the world a better place for those who come after their generation.
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FWGreat interview, but I wish Mike could have shortened his speeches and let Jeremy do more talking.
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LB"ok, I'll think about that" = "forgetaboutit"
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HTMr. Grantham seems to have concluded that the leading predictive variable to COVID rates is the strength of the social contract and willingness and efficiency of a collective response. Given the huge swaths of land with lower cases and death rate in central Asia, China, SE Asia, Eastern Russia - while seeing many varying degrees of population density, strength of social contract, and central planning - I'm not convinced in the slightest that this is indeed the leading predictive variable for COVID. Look at Austria, Switzerland, and all over Europe. You have varying degrees of social contract, heavy central planning, and collectivism. Austrian taxation is 50% and they are extremely efficient people who put the collective first. Switzerland, while not through government decree, is known for VERY precise rule following by the community, efficiency, and a world class medical system. France, while known less for efficiency, probably instituted the largest lockdown globally and look at the rates. Are you saying with the population density of Tokyo, Jakarta, Hong Kong, Shanghai, etc that these cities, by being more robust in social responsibility and collective response than say Belgium or Austria have lower case rates? There are clearly many variables at work here in a very complex system. I'm stunned at the lack of discourse of why the difference in these geographical regions. I don't think Mr. Grantham's single variable explanation is very useful or likely to be correct.
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dmMr. Green is such a gracious host and his interviewing skills are so awesome. Thank you RealVision for bringing together an amazing interview!
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AKGetting an original thinker and certified legend like Grantham on RV is a coup, but Mike Green uncharacteristically detracted from the quality of the interview on this occasion. He interrupted Grantham on too many occasions and had a plethora of long-winded statements that masqueraded as questions, and didn't allow Grantham to build upon his train of thought. I'd have much preferred to have Ed or Raoul run this one.
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KPSummary of video: China is amazing and perfect. US is lucky. I appreciated Mike trying to disagree respectfully. Was the only saving grace.
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SSHandled with grace.
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DMGreat discussion by two sharp minds. Rugged individualism, on its own, won't solve public health (covid) or environmental health problems (climate change; environmental toxins). I sensed and agree with Grantham's preference for pragmatism over ideology.
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MBThe Japanese obedience to authority lead them to WWII and a disastrous conflict with the US. You can't talk about the pluses without acknowledging the negatives. Sounds like JG want's a centrally planned economy with everyone doing what those in charge say in an attempt to 'optimize' the economy. The more 'optimized' a system becomes, the more fragile it is, just look what's happened to the 'just in time' economy we've built up over the last few decades when something like Covid comes along. You can have fragile and optimized or less than perfect and resilient. Pick one.
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DJDoes anyone else find it interesting that no vaccines came out of China? According to his thesis of social incentives, number of educated people etc, one would think they would have been the first..
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TPYou're only as good as your last trade. Mr Grantham's last trade was decades ago, by his own admission. Frankly, it shows in his analysis. China - His admiration for China stems from their ability to "move fast, break things", or more accurately if you are a chinese citizen - "Move fast, or be broken". Look into the history of the Three Gorges Dam, the corruption and displacement of poor farmers, the destruction of their lands with zero compensation. They were "lucky" if they got relocated. China is rife with abuse towards their citizenry because they simply don't care. EM - Emerging Markets is another interesting view. While he correctly states the replacement rates have been lower globally, he also understates how upside-down China's demographics are, notably due to their regressive policy (since rescinded, but too late) of the "One Child" initiative for families. This induced all kinds of behavior that will no doubt go down in the annals of human atrocities as one of the biggest forced-culling of humans that has ever been recorded. Climate - Mr Green correctly brought the argument to Mr Grantham's rose-colored view regarding mining and materials that are needed for "Green" initiatives. While only expressing regret, he didn't bother to follow up with the true cost of these initiatives, nor the massive displacement that would occur in the population if sectors of the economy are suddenly phased out to "save the planet". Wuhan Flu - This was especially ridiculous, as Mr Grantham compares not "doing as your told" to the same level as "driving drunk". Sir, the virus has a survival rate of 99.7% for anyone under 65. There is a reason Germans are rioting against restrictive lockdowns, there's a reason most sane people understand trashing the economy for months on ends isn't a viable answer. He may be speaking from a place of insecurity or fear, but even with advanced age the lethality isn't anywhere near what would necessitate what we've seen. After that lovely little analogy, I wasn't willing to waste any more time on Mr Grantham, as it was obvious he's a case study in what happens when you lose touch with the fundamental issues of day-to-day living. I'm sure he's well compensated and doesn't have to sweat another months-long lockdown to his personal income, but the majority around the world aren't as coddled or insulated. I respect Mr Green, but Mr Grantham needs to open his window now and then and smell the winds of change.
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TESo much material to digest. JG does a good job bringing a different prospective that challenges many ideas people have. Mike Green awesome as always. 1.) Climate change is not a settled science even though mainstream media wants you to believe it. If find it interesting that the solution is to pollute more in order to obtain the metals we need for "green energy." After factoring in the pollution generated to make wind turbines or solar panels the outcome is about the same amount of pollution using fossil fuels. I do agree that we need alternate forms of energy but I think nuclear is the answer not wind or solar. 2.) China is not the next global power. Their population peaked 3 years ago and there's not enough young adults to stop the decline. I agree the portion of China's population that is educated are better in math and science. However, China lacks in creativity. Creativity is frowned upon in China's society. Innovation comes from creativity. The rise of China is mostly due to the help of the U.S. and stealing intellectual property with impunity. This is changing fast. The U.S. has caught on to China's scheme. 3.) You can't have freedom and safety/security. Both are at odds with each other. Just like you can't have freedom and equality. We people are free outcomes will be unequal. Everyone focuses on a normal distribution. In nature almost nothing is normally distributed. Nature follows a Pareto distribution. Perhaps if individuals would make better choices in life perhaps there would be less inequality. Stop blaming the system and start blaming the components. However, I will agree that the US is operating in a crony capitalist system. This is hurting our economy an innovation. 4.) It's unfair to compare death rates in the US to other countries. No other country has the demographic make up of the US. Also, no other country is as "sick" as the US. The higher death rate is due to how unhealthy our country is compared to Europe and Asia. You can say these are environmental factors but again no one if forcing anyone to eat McDonalds or smoke a pack a day. Again, individual choices not the society. 5.) Education and Healthcare aren't a human "right." The Bill of Rights and the Constitution are based on negative rights. Rights you have as an individual. The freedom of speech requires nothing from society other than society not infringing upon your right to speak. Same with the right to bears arms. It requires nothing from society except that society doesn't infringe on your right to have a gun. It doesn't require society to provide you with a gun. The "right" to education or healthcare are positive rights. These rights require society to provide something to you. Positive rights don't exist in nature. The French Revolution made positive rights popular. The right to healthcare (someone has to provide it to you) the right to housing (some one has to provide it to you) the right to a job (again, someone has to provide it to you). If someone/society has to provide it for/to you then it's not a right - it's an obligation.
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MHI'm not an expert on this, but our murder rate is concentrated in very few counties. All of these places are notoriously poorly run or have notorious other issues.
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MRAs an European who lived in the US, I am not shocked about the many negative comments. The man mentioned a ton of examples to support his thesis and yet all those arguments are pushed away with comments like communism, socialism, China lover, etc. Everyone with an open mind, must admit, that this was a good interview with different perspective, examples and thoughts. Period
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JRHe's had a little too much of the leftist cool aide. China good... US bad. We're all gonna die from climate change... Blah, blah, blah...
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JKComing in to this interview I was surprised by the dislike ratio on this video. After watching I now understand. Lol people don’t like being called out for their bullshit. Thank you Jermey for calling out the nonsense that happened during this pandemic. Also for the very honest take on climate change.
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RKMike has Zoom background issues that lead me to go into audio-only mode.
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JLyet another supposedly smart person brainwashed by the climate change cult
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arMike did a great job managing this exchange, but what a train wreck overall. A long-winded, leftist-talking-points rant from what I hoped would be an interesting thinker, given his street cred. Disappointing.
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NDReally good interview with a few prickly moments lol These actually make the interview. Mike can be challenging and not immune from a few off the cuff comments himself. So, going toe-to-toe with JG and taking a few shots is good too. Thanks RV
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BKGreat interview, But the Sinophilia is a bit tiring.
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ptany trump cult bros who think they are smarter than JG want to hit me up with some climate denying alternative 'facts'?
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bsJapan has fewer deaths for the simple fact that they're diet is high in vitamin D, masks have nothing to do with it
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DRHoly smokes, what an enthralling discussion. Thank you!
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MJ10/10
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LS"Dark Ages" - "Save us from ourselves"? The societal advancement section is breathtakingly brainless. This is why people don't trust people in such positions who pretend to know what's going on, but don't. Japan didn't do anything and didn't get a bad result, and they don't have obesity or longevity issues, yet that's why they did "better" than the US? This guy doesn't even know what he doesn't know. As if most of the country had a problem with Covid, lol, no. Has JG been streaming in Clown Cuomo (either one) daily? My word, so much of this bloviation is an embarrassment it is scary.
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MHThis guy does no research. Masks actually increase your risk. They are a political feel good measure. The research has been done. He has bought into all the fear. Typical of his generation.
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DHi respectfully disagree with Jeremy's view on China. Tell me exactly what new technologies China invented last 50 years? Other than Covid-19 virus, they invented None. All the Chinese big tech companies are actually built on US technology just at bigger scale due to the huge population in China. Huawei cannot even produce its own chips. Jeremy sounded like a globalist/elite from Davo's crowd. He seems to be a true believer of World Econ Forum's agenda, and his investment strategy is based on his believe. I understand his point of view, doesn't mean our future will go that direction. I like every interview Mike has done on RV including this one!
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JCThoughts: The global system is already becoming unstable and it's not because of climate change. I found myself agreeing with a lot of the things Grantham said, but disagreed with either why he was saying them or where he was going with them. Didn't expect a discussion on sperm count, but it was very interesting. I started using this app called Think Dirty (also HealthyLiving is supposed to be good) that helps filter out hormone disrupting products but these chemicals should just be banned to begin with. Interesting point about its affect on the chemical industry in the future and I hope he's right. I expect these fertility issues are more as a result of our food and lack of exercise than our shampoo though. Completely agree that our corporations are sociopathic. They are almost like autonomous non-human entities, perhaps similar to AI. Hope he's right about VC - seems like the industry has been very focused on BS like WeWork instead of actual science which is much more expensive to fund.
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MH***Masks don't change the coefficient of spread***. If they want to come up with a different reason to force everybody to do that, then so be it. The anti-mask people are loaded for bear and the government knows it. Supposedly, it's being litigated in federal courts right now.
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MMMr. Grantham makes a good point about our desperate need for change but overall is pretty much the opposite of everything I love about real vision
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NSmischaracterization of Milton Friedman's central point on why a business should concern itself only with making a profit. If you come after gods, at least be respectful enough to steel-man the argument.
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WGI thought almost all of the points made by Mr. G were at least worth careful consideration. Which is not to say that I think I would find myself in agreement with them, or leaning hard against either. Only that he covered some important ground and that long or short, the themes discussed were important.
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PPThis is all you need to know about this wacko https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/granthams-short-call-cost-his-hedge-fund-over-2-billion
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TMJeremy, please explain how Co2 is a pollutant? Climate change nut job!
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RSThis is the reason I subscribe to RV.
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WPNice interview Mike. I respect Mr G opinions, but he is just wrong on many levels. That we are "lucky" to have vaccines is a bit too much As if innovation had nothing to do with it. Mr G can pontificate about lock downs, while the rest of us have to earn a living God Bless all.
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LS"This is life and death" LOL! ... for 0.5% of the population. You can't make this fear mongering stuff up, OMG
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TLGreat interview. I just wish Grantham would quit holding back and tell us what he really thinks.
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SBAt any time in history, you could always argue the view that society would be better if the State controlled more. Unfortunately, when it has been tried, rarely has State control of anything works productively. Just as Grantham argues individuals are self-serving, we should also point out that politicians and bureaucrats are also self-serving but usually power hungry too. It just comes down to which environment you want to live in. IMHO I enjoy freedom and liberty, especially when it allows me to do good things for my fellow human, rather than being forced to at the barrel of a gun. As usual, great interview from Mike Green.
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DWMy god, Grantham's rebuttals to Green's arguments were just awful. Full of straw-mans. I would say it was one of the worst interviews I have seen on RV but Mike Green as always was great.
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SGReal vision releases it's daily briefing on zh so real vision must be racist and white supremacists by proxy too eh?
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BDHearing Jeremy talk about his thoughts changed my view on him and allows for a deeper insight of someone who has a long and storied career. Very glad I watched this interview and learned from someone else's perspective on where the world is heading. It would be a gift if Jeremy could get anyone from the businesses and technology he's backed to do an interview on RV. Josh Wolfe would also make a great interviewer for these topics too if compliance allows. I never thought I would hear Jeremy or mike green talk about sperm counts though. Both funny in its oddity and something you would only get from a RV interview.
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GAThe case for technocratic fascism (and/or for neofeudal oligarchy, which are my two ways of describing this thing). This is likely the most probable base case for the future socioeconomic model.** **This is not an endorsement.
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ptLove JG, check out his interviews on Charlie Rose,https://charlierose.com/videos/30816 although like all serious intelligent Europeans he takes climate seriously, which may trigger some of the flat earth trump finance bros.
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CJFor those who have a positive reaction to Jeremy how do you reconcile that with his clear obfuscations? He claims China is going to overtake the developed world. Mike asks him how he reconciles that with their demographics. Instead of answering that, he basically says South Korea is worse and they are similar to the developed world. So basically he can't reconcile it.... When asked about China's willingness to ignore the environmental impacts of mining, he basically says well we used to be bad too. When asked about whether switching energy sources is productivity enhancing... He says productivity has been declining for years and then goes on a diatribe about luck and covid 19. I'm guessing he just didn't want to answer the question because there isn't actually a good answer to it. When questioned about his we got lucky narrative, Mike makes the point that it isn't so much luck as a benefit of the experimentation aspects of a less collectivist society... His counter seems to be that because it's the product of small entrants and creative destruction it somehow invalidates Mike's point. Come on, Jeremy... You're literally using his point for him and pretending it somehow invalidates it. In your analogy state sponsored monopolies would be the Merck's of the world. There may be other examples, but I've already gone on far too long. I get that Jeremy has an incredible track record as an investor and he should be commended for that, but I just can't understand how people can listen to this interview and think based on the content of this interview that he's some incredible original thinker who's giving people the hard truth.
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JCI've been waiting for this interview in RV for ever! And it happened with Mike Green, Thanks!
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JYPM Angela Merkel forestalled BRD's demographic denouement by a generation in permitting emergency "Einwanderung" of 1M immigrants. France is on track to eclipse BRD GDP in a generation via population growth. Jeremy articulates a "Pascal's wager" viewpoint of climate change.
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DAI don’t think this was Grantham’s finest moment but he still presented some powerful arguments about the direction of change even if he was sometimes less compelling on the degree of change. Mike provided just the right amount of challenge, exposing possible weaknesses whilst keeping the interview on track.
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MGLoved Mike in this interview. He did a stellar job of challenging Jeremy's points instead of backing down and accepting Jeremy's views because well he is Jeremy Grantham. Well done Mike.
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DYThis guy sounds like a shill for the CCP. What he has forgotten to tell us about his beloved China, is that they have stolen all of our science, engineering and computer technology that the west has spent the last 500 years discovering and inventing. If he has ever read a science history book, which by his knowledge he hasn't, he would now that just about all the great discoveries in the last 500 years is from the western intellect. Look at cars, radios, tv, computers, telephones, planes, combustion engines, telescopes, microscopes and the list just goes on and on, and let's not forget our exquisite art and music that the western mind has produced. The only reason we are even watching this is by the discovery of electricity and the invention of the computer and internet, which wasn't done by China. The only thing that China is really good at is lying, cheating and stealing. Even he said that the best universities for research are in the US and UK, but he still has to go on about how great a totalitarian dictator government is, that does live organ harvesting on it's people. If China was so great in technology like he is saying, then why aren't western student flocking to Chinese universities wanting to study and work there, and to get access to all this great knowledge that China has? The truth is it's the opposite, Chinese students are flocking to the western university and wanting to live and work in the west because even they know that China is a dirty, polluted corrupt hole. The sad thing is Jeremy actually believes the numbers and propaganda that comes out of China, how naive can one get? Mike did a great job in the interview by trying to open Jeremy myopic and really naive vision. I had to stop watching as I'm really getting sick and tired of hearing people like Jeremy bashing the west, and telling us how great China is. I've been to China and I would prefer to live in the US any day, and I'm sure Jeremy wouldn't like to spend the rest of his life living in his beloved China either. If it wasn't for the west then China would be still reading by candle light and their mode of transport would still be a donkey.
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JJGreat job by Mike Green as always but w/ all due respect fuck this old POS, would’ve been great to seen Kyle Bass take this one
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PPHow could this old geezer be so radical... Go back to Britain or move to China .... soon!
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DHOr, you know, the sea level will go up a bit, temperature belts will move north and south and humans will adapt the same as they have adapted to everything in the past. I don’t think climate change is fake I just think a) wind and solar cant power the global economy and b) if you compare the costs of action on climate change to its benefits, politically it will never happen. On another note, its an interesting divide between older people (for whom china/globalisation made them richer) and gen X/ millennials (for whom it made them poorer) and I just think you cant remove these incentives from people’s view. Boomers have this wierd guilt/self hatred thing that they want to project on everyone else. Like sure pal we will just consume less than you did, buy less than you did, own less than you did to assuage your guilt. I am left wing by the way!
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PRMike tried his best to have a discussion on the merits of the arguments that JG was making, whereas JG was continuing to trot out the same example over and over again. It’s not that I don’t agree to some extent with his points, but overall the interview was pretty light on substance.
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SAMike Green just put on a master class in verbal jiu jitsu. I pretty much tuned out the moment Mr. Grantham turned on his PLA propaganda bullhorn. RV, the only knock is where was the Star Wars background music to support young Hans Solo's battle for the Republic's future against the Empire's Sith Lord.
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VBSuperb! I wish Mike had annoyed him a bit more so that we could have heard the next level of thoughts. I think there is still a level of conversation on why the next wave of collective human endeavours will be better managed by China's systems (if that's what Jeremy believes) than an improved Western/liberal system, in a sustainable way?
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MGThank you RV for another great interview. And thank you Mike Green for letting Mr. Grantham respond without interruption. The interview was extremely enlightening.
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FMHard truths.
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PAMP Materials will be the REE investment for the future. Thank you Chamath Palihapitiya.
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MMSo Trump said we would have immunizations before end of the year...that's when we got them. Why should we believe grantham saying it was uncertain? Sounds a little radical/biased to me.
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STNot surprised to see many negative comments from the conservative crowd when hot topics like climate change, China, american mishandling of covid-19 and declining american exceptionalism are discussed. The truth hurts and is often unacceptable to the conservative. Case in point, conservatives dying of covid-19 still refused to believe they have the virus! The usual denials and righteous justifications only reinforce Grantham's point on the selfishness of Americans who "want to live free at the expense of others". Example is the comment on low mortality rate for covid-19. The reason why such drastic measures need to be implemented is not because of the mortality rate! It's because the entire healthcare system will collapse if many of the infected flood the hospital for treatment. How will the hospital be able to handle them and the usual sick/injured who need urgent care?
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MHWOW, Disappointed with the green dogma. Makes you wonder if he has done any serious digging on the matter. Regardless I think that the New Green Deal is coming, it is an new religion and it will be forced upon us no matter how senseless some of it is. CO2 grows plants people, it's not pollution!
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DGI thought it was an interesting video. Just curious if he is still net short stonks since June? Something tells me he will have the last laugh.
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LMQuick question, Jeremy: when China produces all of those electric buses and cars and solar panels and wind turbines, does it do so with green energy? A fortune will certainly be made in green energy--almost entirely by cronies of the political class. They'll disappear with the taxpayer subsidies (without which the entire industry is non-viable) and ordinary investors will get Solyndra'd. But bet the ranch gents, because, you know...if it doesn't work we're all dead anyway.
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CTGrantham clearly hasn't seen the Danish study on (3 layer surgical) masks... not the fabric everyone seems to wear and virtue signal from "The recommendation to wear surgical masks to supplement other public health measures did not reduce the SARS-CoV-2 infection rate among wearers "
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AMOutstanding interview. Admirable knowledge and a perspective rooted in experience and objectivity. Very clear on the direction of travel and the system failures that need to be addressed. This should be relayed to all political and large corporate actors in the US and UK. They have a lot to answer for
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NII often wonder why these America bashers don't pack their bags and move to the promised lands that do everything so much better.
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JNThis guys uneconomic greening policy is whackery...will require fascist control.
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JJThis guy talks about declining fertility, sperm count and life expectancy but many of these products and prescription drugs come from China just like “COVID 19” which he conveniently never mentioned once came from China
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tcAnother great Mike Green interview. He extracts the best from his interviewees. Hard to swallow JG's views on China and pollution. Wish he had been told how many coal fired power plants China is building, not to mention India. Most china solar panels are exported. The % of solar and thermal in China is a joke. And there many REs in Australia, So. American and in US. I lost big on one that just couldn't clear the hurdle of the govt environmental studies at current prices. Chemical industries another great example in China. No one else wants it. He should visit some of the towns in China where REs and chemical processing is done. I haven't but reports say very large numbers of dwarf and retarded deformed people. Comparing China to America 100 years ago is no excuse.
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VKSwarm-think was strong in this interview. Most lessons of individualism underlying all that works are lost. I don't believe that China reports their covid numbers truly. Also they don't have so many comorbidities. The green energy will bring impoverishment a ultimately ecological troubles. Uranium and fusion, perhaps could help. Waiting for new batteries, maybe.
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TWClearly JG has become a spokesman for the CCP, "Addressing their toxic air better than we did in 1900" It is such a ridiculously simple and stupid statement I almost had to turn it off there.
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dsAmazing Clarity of Jeremy Grantham his reputation has a reason for the same and Mike Green as always a great host, not getting pushed however soft enough with data and thoughts
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MHOK... I'm done waste of time.
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MPDon Quixote.. tilting at windmills.
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KCHe must have quit reading the science of climate change in 2010 - the latest research on solar forcing numbers absolve CO2 completely - the furnace had been running hot since the late 70s - if you do not use the new solar forcing adjustments for your climate change models you are more likely to predict the number of angels dancing on the head of a pin
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DII learned much from the interview and the comments, thanks for the great interview Jeremy and thanks to the real vision community.
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DZDoes anyone remember the days of climate cooling mania, that we were going to all freeze to death? How about the giant hole in our ozone in the early 2000s? Some how all that is forgotten...
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AHMike Green is a superb interviewer. Thx.
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MKI liked the interview..... but wow, that is one grumpy, authoritarian old man.
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VNclearly, all those comments calling Grantham CCP mouthpiece were not old enough over a decade ago when he was personally one of the largest critics of China. I wish Mike had asked him about that evolution. The speech Mike described hearing in 2000, I heard at the 2001 CFA annual conference. I remember thinking to myself, who the heck is this guy, asking a 1000 CFAs who here thinks the market will go down 30% from here, May'01, and watching half a dozen hands go up). I have invested in the GMO AA and then Benchmark-Free fund ever since, through thick and thin, It was not always easy, like Grantham said, when they are wrong, they are wrong, but not from the lack of trying. Having read his quarterly commentary over the years, I was glad to see the old man stick to his guns. value-oriented, fact-based, history informed perspective is not an easy road to follow in the age of narratives. my wife knows that if something happens to me, she must keep a 3rd of the life insurance proceeds in the GMO ARF. I also found it touching - the amount of respect Mike showed his mentor. Refreshing! Thank you!
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JGIf you want to be obedient to authority in all things, move your ass to China which you seem to worship. This chap isn't on my 'respect' list. He's an eco-religious fanatic.
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DTChinese will steal all those results of the research and development investments America will make.
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MJJeremy's assessments were spot on (IMO) and brutally honest. Great, really great!
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NSTerrific discussion, thank you for the perspectives.
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kRWell... that was the first RV video I decided not to finish on purpose.
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AKGreat discussion. Don’t forget about Vanadium!
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RMGrantham is so spot on about the opportunity in early-stage venture capital. Venture offers one of the last sectors to find growth in areas like technology, biotech, and clean technology. The lack of information and liquidity and long investment horizon sets up the dynamic for opportunistic returns. Amazing that Grantham has adapted after so many years outperforming in the equity capital markets. Great interview!
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JHAccording to Grantham, Mike "specialises in these compound and complicated questions." That's because Mike grasps complexity - based on this interview, I certainly can't say the same for you, Mr. Grantham.
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JHGreat job, Mike - I appreciate your deferent challenges to Grantham. So much of what he said reflects commonly held assumptions, held by the global elite, which in the light of evidence are simply not true. Some cases in point: 1. The "only way" to get to a greener world is to extract rare earth minerals and engage in a "Green New Deal" with significantly more restrictions on human choice. That's absolutely not true - as a former energy engineer, environmentalist, and farmer, I can tell you unequivocally that through better use of farmland and build-up of topsoil globally, we could sequester as much and possibly more of the GHGs in the atmosphere than necessary. See Project Drawdown for more information on this. 2. The magnitude of the COVID "crisis" in Japan is due to how *obedient* the population is (notice the language I'm using here - there's a reason, and you're going to see more of it in the months and years to come). Also probably not true - why? Because there are MANY reasons Japan may have had an easier time with COVID - e.g. the leanness and relative health of their elderly population; and they drink a huge amount of green tea and eat sea vegetables, both of which are high in Zinc Ionophores and polyphenols, respectively, that may reduce their susceptibility as well. We have no serious evidence I'm familiar with that shows to any extent that it has to do with mask use. 3. "The virus is everywhere" - perhaps, but the government restrictions and "lockdowns" do not square at all with the zero to negative curves of Excess Deaths in many countries. See the work of Ivor Cummins (@fatemperor on Twitter). Another curiosity is this: if COVID is so dangerous and scary, then why the hell is it that not one official website in any of the Western countries states clearly that, as proven out by recent and significant studies, Vitamin D3 cuts mortality risk from COVID-19 by 89%. Yes, you read that right - almost 90%. Respectfully, none of the above squares with Grantham's thinking on the state of our world.
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shWow Mike green has been working hard. Really like his interviews.
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RR