Jeremy Grantham’s Big Calls: Emerging Markets, Venture Capital, and the Green Revolution

Published on
November 23rd, 2020
Duration
82 minutes

Jeremy Grantham’s Big Calls: Emerging Markets, Venture Capital, and the Green Revolution

Mike Green in Conversation ·
Featuring Jeremy Grantham

Published on: November 23rd, 2020 • Duration: 82 minutes

Long-term investment strategist and co-founder of GMO Jeremy Grantham has made a name for himself as a bubble spotter. In this interview with Mike Green of Logica Capital Advisors, Grantham argues that although we are again in a market bubble, it has an entirely different make up than prior bubbles and is almost devoid of the opportunity that these periods of misallocation historically provide. As a result, he sees opportunities as few and far between in public markets. With the exception of emerging markets and the greening of the economy, an endeavor that he believes is a societal necessity, he encourages investors to look towards venture. Together, Grantham and Green also debate China's position in Grantham's emerging market thesis and the green revolution, the pollution paradoxes of greening the economy, and the merits of societies and forms government that incentivize cooperation among people and risk taking in the form of early stage venture capital. Filmed on November 18, 2020. Key Learnings: Emerging markets are the only place that Grantham sees clear opportunity in public markets. Using COVID response as a case study, Grantham worries about America’s potential to solve the problem of climate change. He also argues that if not for venture capital, American innovation would be non-existent.

Comments

Transcript

  • MJ
    Mark J.
    9 January 2021 @ 21:32
    I enjoyed the final 10 minutes the most - Mike was a gracious host and concluded with their common ground and an emphasis on how their shared views can bring about a better future.
  • JY
    Jason Y.
    26 November 2020 @ 07:48
    This is probably the best thing I've seen to date on Real Vision. Grantham bringing the truth and not mincing a single word, illusions of rugged individualism and American exceptionalism be damned.
    • LC
      Liliana C.
      8 January 2021 @ 04:13
      Sounds like jealousy to me 😎
  • KR
    Kieran R.
    27 November 2020 @ 09:34
    I'd respectfully disagree with Jeremy Grantham's world view. Jeremy Grantham seems to be apart of a globalist elite who'd rather deal away with individualism and the 'mess', as Mike referred to it. Coupled with Raoul's interview with Chamath the other day, it seems the elite would rather a conformist, passisivit, Confucian, 'do what you're told' society. I don't think we can give China too much credit. After all they released this virus onto the world. And how conformist do you want to get with their 1m people in concentration camps. But according to Chamath anyone that wants to at least question things or have a civil discussion on these matters is a 'dip shit' like all these philosophical questions are a given. I find people at the top of the pyramid making radical changes to society with such broad brushes and doing it with such arrogance with such an air of expertise and know all to be the scariest thing of all through this whole thing. As Hugh Henry would say (and I parapgrase) 'never believe the 'experts''. I'm with Mike. I'm with the mess. The mess is beautiful, allows for individual flair, creativity and ingenuity and allows humanity to express itself. The mess is what advanced us to this point and is what built the greatest civilisation on earth - America. And no, I'm not American. Collectivism and conformity leads us down a dangerous path and don't believe the squeaky clean facade that is China.
    • TE
      Thomas E.
      30 November 2020 @ 19:03
      People at the top of the pyramid rely on academics to justify their social engineering. The same Marxist academics that overwhelmingly populate our universities make policy recommendations to our political leaders. Yet, academics don't understand why more and more people are criticizing universities and the "research" they produce. Academics and "science" has been politicized and therefore, you'll never have buy-in from the public. Ideology is now more important than truth which is why mainstream media no longer gets both sides of an issue. Just the side they want to promote.
    • LC
      Liliana C.
      8 January 2021 @ 04:12
      You’re not alone. Also MG disagrees.😁😉
  • pt
    popejumpingjohnpaul t.
    28 November 2020 @ 13:30
    a very challenging interview for our American friends many of whom are triggered by an honest appraisal of their nation and their national trajectory.
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      29 November 2020 @ 19:29
      +100
    • TP
      Timothy P.
      12 December 2020 @ 17:00
      Funny how euro-based posters always trumpet their national allegiance like its some badge of honor. No one goes around saying "USA CITIZEN HERE", because we're not rabidly promoting ourselves. Your efforts smack of some kind of deficiency that you're trying to desperately prove doesn't exist. No worries, the ECB will take care of your prosperity with their garbage stewardship.
    • LC
      Liliana C.
      8 January 2021 @ 04:10
      GFY 😇
  • ph
    phil h.
    28 November 2020 @ 04:07
    He just has to be one of the most balanced and grounded people I have listened to. What a magnificent person
    • LC
      Liliana C.
      8 January 2021 @ 04:10
      😂
  • DR
    David R.
    4 December 2020 @ 00:08
    The currency of a nation is in fact its stock and worth. USD crashing to multiyear lows against all significant currencies speaks volumes about how bad and weak the US truly is.
    • BK
      Brian K.
      12 December 2020 @ 16:57
      Agree and you see great corps like Intel and Boeing in, arguably, decline.
  • PB
    PHILLIP B.
    29 November 2020 @ 18:54
    Thank you RV for getting an interview with Mr. Grantham. I haven't checked the comments to see why so many down votes. Sound quality was decent. So, it can't be that. Picture quality was fine, too. So, can't be that. I would surmise that many of the down votes then must be because he encourages the young generation of upstarts, now, and in the future, to be sure, to get into fields that generate new ideas, solve problems, that create new companies, that create wealth. He's encouraging risk taking among the young in the interest of future economic and social dynamism. This obviously must account for the vast majority of down votes. Fantastic interview. We need more late career, successful people who are wise, and who want to make the world a better place for those who come after their generation.
    • DR
      David R.
      4 December 2020 @ 00:06
      The downvotes are triggered yanks who can't accept they are a distant #2 economy and falling further behind massively with each passing year now. EU should overtake US this year. The largest real economy in the world today by far is in fact China and it approaches double the size of the US by year-end 2020. Read up from the current World Bank and even the IMF and to a lesser extent even the US CIA factbook. In addition. the largest trading partner for most countries in the world today is China, while only 10% of countries trade more with the US. China in 2020 is also the world's largest consumer market by both numbers and value. Even US allies like Germany sell more to China now than to the US. The game is over and China has won. Now they're just running up the score.
    • TP
      Timothy P.
      12 December 2020 @ 16:56
      @David - I gather you haven't kept track of what the ECB is doing. The Euro experiment will come to an ugly end under their "stewardship". How anyone thought that pile of sloppy economic arbitrage was going to survive needs their head examined. China stats are faked, like a lot of their product quality. The only real way to get an idea of what they're doing is tracking metrics that can't be cheated - satellite imagery of commuter flows, factories, electricity usage (though they cottoned on to that and now order factories to run even if they're not producing anything, cheeky bastards), etc.. If you've bought into the China rising story I feel very bad for the funds you've committed to such a flawed enterprise.
  • FW
    Fred W.
    10 December 2020 @ 19:57
    Great interview, but I wish Mike could have shortened his speeches and let Jeremy do more talking.
  • LB
    Lorenzo B.
    9 December 2020 @ 08:50
    "ok, I'll think about that" = "forgetaboutit"
  • HT
    Hunter T.
    7 December 2020 @ 10:52
    Mr. Grantham seems to have concluded that the leading predictive variable to COVID rates is the strength of the social contract and willingness and efficiency of a collective response. Given the huge swaths of land with lower cases and death rate in central Asia, China, SE Asia, Eastern Russia - while seeing many varying degrees of population density, strength of social contract, and central planning - I'm not convinced in the slightest that this is indeed the leading predictive variable for COVID. Look at Austria, Switzerland, and all over Europe. You have varying degrees of social contract, heavy central planning, and collectivism. Austrian taxation is 50% and they are extremely efficient people who put the collective first. Switzerland, while not through government decree, is known for VERY precise rule following by the community, efficiency, and a world class medical system. France, while known less for efficiency, probably instituted the largest lockdown globally and look at the rates. Are you saying with the population density of Tokyo, Jakarta, Hong Kong, Shanghai, etc that these cities, by being more robust in social responsibility and collective response than say Belgium or Austria have lower case rates? There are clearly many variables at work here in a very complex system. I'm stunned at the lack of discourse of why the difference in these geographical regions. I don't think Mr. Grantham's single variable explanation is very useful or likely to be correct.
  • dm
    dude m.
    5 December 2020 @ 23:03
    Mr. Green is such a gracious host and his interviewing skills are so awesome. Thank you RealVision for bringing together an amazing interview!
  • AK
    ANDY K.
    23 November 2020 @ 19:14
    Getting an original thinker and certified legend like Grantham on RV is a coup, but Mike Green uncharacteristically detracted from the quality of the interview on this occasion. He interrupted Grantham on too many occasions and had a plethora of long-winded statements that masqueraded as questions, and didn't allow Grantham to build upon his train of thought. I'd have much preferred to have Ed or Raoul run this one.
    • CJ
      Charles J.
      23 November 2020 @ 20:01
      Grantham may be an original thinker with respect to investing, but I found most of his narratives during this interview to be at just about the level of thinking that you might get on The View. Mike Green runs intellectual circles around this dude. If anything, he was having trouble keeping up.
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      5 December 2020 @ 07:35
      Disagree.
  • KP
    Kaushal P.
    23 November 2020 @ 15:12
    Summary of video: China is amazing and perfect. US is lucky. I appreciated Mike trying to disagree respectfully. Was the only saving grace.
    • PU
      Peter U.
      23 November 2020 @ 16:31
      Mike did a superb job with his questions and counter arguments. Brilliant
    • TW
      Thomas W.
      23 November 2020 @ 22:11
      JG has become an old bitter hack, his "work" on wind and solar appears elementary at best, zero discussion about geography, ability to store wind/solar etc...he is pushing a narrative as hard as he can. Mike did a good job but the old man is clearly on the mental decline. He should just lock his door and stay in his basement for another 3 years
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      5 December 2020 @ 07:31
      Agree. One wonders why he and Ray Dalio haven’t already moved there.
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    5 December 2020 @ 07:24
    Handled with grace.
  • DM
    David M.
    4 December 2020 @ 04:49
    Great discussion by two sharp minds. Rugged individualism, on its own, won't solve public health (covid) or environmental health problems (climate change; environmental toxins). I sensed and agree with Grantham's preference for pragmatism over ideology.
  • MB
    Mark B.
    3 December 2020 @ 19:28
    The Japanese obedience to authority lead them to WWII and a disastrous conflict with the US. You can't talk about the pluses without acknowledging the negatives. Sounds like JG want's a centrally planned economy with everyone doing what those in charge say in an attempt to 'optimize' the economy. The more 'optimized' a system becomes, the more fragile it is, just look what's happened to the 'just in time' economy we've built up over the last few decades when something like Covid comes along. You can have fragile and optimized or less than perfect and resilient. Pick one.
    • DR
      David R.
      4 December 2020 @ 00:47
      I didn't hear JG espousing a centrally planned economy. That sounds like the socialist US, where the government owns almost 50% of mortgages (soon to be 100%) and the US Central Bank nationalized the bond market in March. A country where almost everyone is endlessly crying out for more central "stimulus" (read free helicopter money) and their central authorities are on a path to print almost as much "money" as their whole economy. Where just their artificially suppressed interest nevertheless now exceeds their total tax receipts (can you say, "Hopelessly bankrupt"?).
  • DJ
    David J.
    28 November 2020 @ 19:45
    Does anyone else find it interesting that no vaccines came out of China? According to his thesis of social incentives, number of educated people etc, one would think they would have been the first..
    • DR
      David R.
      4 December 2020 @ 00:37
      That's easy. First, you obviously must have enough sick people in order to properly test a vaccine. But China and almost all of East Asia resolved most its Covid cases 6-8 months ago with relatively very few test cases since, so it became impossible to complete the testing & development of vaccine there (the same thing happened with SARS), in contrast to the Typhoid Mary state today of the hyper-infected USA and some other similarly unsanitary nations. Two, China has already successfully developed at least 3 vaccines, including the so-called Pfizer vaccine which in fact had no US development except marketing, but instead was actually a preexisting joint development of BioNTech of Germany and Fosun Pharma of Guangzhou China before Pfizer was engaged for international marketing and some routine testing, not that there's anything wrong with that - plenty of international cooperation and success for a change. Indeed, the world needs more of that international cooperation instead of US Trumpian xenophobic demagoguery.
  • TP
    Timothy P.
    23 November 2020 @ 18:25
    You're only as good as your last trade. Mr Grantham's last trade was decades ago, by his own admission. Frankly, it shows in his analysis. China - His admiration for China stems from their ability to "move fast, break things", or more accurately if you are a chinese citizen - "Move fast, or be broken". Look into the history of the Three Gorges Dam, the corruption and displacement of poor farmers, the destruction of their lands with zero compensation. They were "lucky" if they got relocated. China is rife with abuse towards their citizenry because they simply don't care. EM - Emerging Markets is another interesting view. While he correctly states the replacement rates have been lower globally, he also understates how upside-down China's demographics are, notably due to their regressive policy (since rescinded, but too late) of the "One Child" initiative for families. This induced all kinds of behavior that will no doubt go down in the annals of human atrocities as one of the biggest forced-culling of humans that has ever been recorded. Climate - Mr Green correctly brought the argument to Mr Grantham's rose-colored view regarding mining and materials that are needed for "Green" initiatives. While only expressing regret, he didn't bother to follow up with the true cost of these initiatives, nor the massive displacement that would occur in the population if sectors of the economy are suddenly phased out to "save the planet". Wuhan Flu - This was especially ridiculous, as Mr Grantham compares not "doing as your told" to the same level as "driving drunk". Sir, the virus has a survival rate of 99.7% for anyone under 65. There is a reason Germans are rioting against restrictive lockdowns, there's a reason most sane people understand trashing the economy for months on ends isn't a viable answer. He may be speaking from a place of insecurity or fear, but even with advanced age the lethality isn't anywhere near what would necessitate what we've seen. After that lovely little analogy, I wasn't willing to waste any more time on Mr Grantham, as it was obvious he's a case study in what happens when you lose touch with the fundamental issues of day-to-day living. I'm sure he's well compensated and doesn't have to sweat another months-long lockdown to his personal income, but the majority around the world aren't as coddled or insulated. I respect Mr Green, but Mr Grantham needs to open his window now and then and smell the winds of change.
    • AW
      Andrew W.
      23 November 2020 @ 19:58
      Oh but if you kept going, you missed the best part, where he basically describes that the USA is an empire on its way to collapse.
    • TP
      Timothy P.
      24 November 2020 @ 23:36
      I'll just leave this here: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/granthams-short-call-cost-his-hedge-fund-over-2-billion Only as good as your last trade, indeed.
    • DR
      David R.
      3 December 2020 @ 23:50
      @Andrew W. So does Ray Dalio, not a shabby HF manager. Just the most successful in the (western) world. And he's right!
  • TE
    Thomas E.
    30 November 2020 @ 20:15
    So much material to digest. JG does a good job bringing a different prospective that challenges many ideas people have. Mike Green awesome as always. 1.) Climate change is not a settled science even though mainstream media wants you to believe it. If find it interesting that the solution is to pollute more in order to obtain the metals we need for "green energy." After factoring in the pollution generated to make wind turbines or solar panels the outcome is about the same amount of pollution using fossil fuels. I do agree that we need alternate forms of energy but I think nuclear is the answer not wind or solar. 2.) China is not the next global power. Their population peaked 3 years ago and there's not enough young adults to stop the decline. I agree the portion of China's population that is educated are better in math and science. However, China lacks in creativity. Creativity is frowned upon in China's society. Innovation comes from creativity. The rise of China is mostly due to the help of the U.S. and stealing intellectual property with impunity. This is changing fast. The U.S. has caught on to China's scheme. 3.) You can't have freedom and safety/security. Both are at odds with each other. Just like you can't have freedom and equality. We people are free outcomes will be unequal. Everyone focuses on a normal distribution. In nature almost nothing is normally distributed. Nature follows a Pareto distribution. Perhaps if individuals would make better choices in life perhaps there would be less inequality. Stop blaming the system and start blaming the components. However, I will agree that the US is operating in a crony capitalist system. This is hurting our economy an innovation. 4.) It's unfair to compare death rates in the US to other countries. No other country has the demographic make up of the US. Also, no other country is as "sick" as the US. The higher death rate is due to how unhealthy our country is compared to Europe and Asia. You can say these are environmental factors but again no one if forcing anyone to eat McDonalds or smoke a pack a day. Again, individual choices not the society. 5.) Education and Healthcare aren't a human "right." The Bill of Rights and the Constitution are based on negative rights. Rights you have as an individual. The freedom of speech requires nothing from society other than society not infringing upon your right to speak. Same with the right to bears arms. It requires nothing from society except that society doesn't infringe on your right to have a gun. It doesn't require society to provide you with a gun. The "right" to education or healthcare are positive rights. These rights require society to provide something to you. Positive rights don't exist in nature. The French Revolution made positive rights popular. The right to healthcare (someone has to provide it to you) the right to housing (some one has to provide it to you) the right to a job (again, someone has to provide it to you). If someone/society has to provide it for/to you then it's not a right - it's an obligation.
    • KS
      Kurt S.
      3 December 2020 @ 17:15
      Excellent comment!
  • MH
    Mark H.
    28 November 2020 @ 22:18
    I'm not an expert on this, but our murder rate is concentrated in very few counties. All of these places are notoriously poorly run or have notorious other issues.
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      29 November 2020 @ 19:26
      "Notoriosly poorly run" is a trigger turn of speech popularized during the recent US campaign season. You show a lack of wisdom for selecting such a term of speech to make your point...unless your point was to make a political comment. I just spent five minutes Googling around and looking at charts and figures for homicide rates in the US. I looked at charts for both the counties with the highest homicide rates as well as the states with the highest homicide rates. It would appear that what many of the counties, and states, have in common are poverty (or, generally lower wages/income), low educational attainment, and other factors that would surely cause rancor on the board. Rather than places that have been stereotyped, that our beliefs molded to understand that "notoriously poorly run" means urban centers on the coasts, the data on counties with the highest homicide rates bears out a different story than your insinuation. Perhaps the data by zip code, or census tract, would be better to use to bear out any point on concentration of homicides. I suggest you spend a few more minutes gathering your thoughts and facts prior to using "notoriously poorly run" to mean urban centers, to mean high homicide rate.
    • MH
      Mark H.
      30 November 2020 @ 02:35
      I'm pretty sure bad governance has a lot to do with homicide rates in those counties.
    • MH
      Michael H.
      2 December 2020 @ 22:59
      Phillip, does 'poverty' not fall under 'notorious other issues' in your world, or were you latching onto 'poorly run' for your own political commentary? For someone chastising another commenter so strongly you should maybe reflect on your own biases first before saying someone has a lack of wisdom.
  • MR
    Marco R.
    24 November 2020 @ 15:10
    As an European who lived in the US, I am not shocked about the many negative comments. The man mentioned a ton of examples to support his thesis and yet all those arguments are pushed away with comments like communism, socialism, China lover, etc. Everyone with an open mind, must admit, that this was a good interview with different perspective, examples and thoughts. Period
    • TP
      Timothy P.
      24 November 2020 @ 17:27
      The same open minds that allowed Germany to invade all nearby countries? Yes, you Europeans have quite the lock on being complete pushovers when it comes down to hard decisions. Some of us use critical thinking instead of national-fealty oriented fallacies.
    • MR
      Marco R.
      24 November 2020 @ 19:13
      Timothy, I don’t mean this offensive, but that’s exactly the difference how we interpret the arguments in this interview. You: Have the military view, the dominance of US and the pushover Europe Me: I look at the healthcare system. I was shocked how expensive healthcare is in the US. If the citizens would really know, how outrageous expensive medical is in the US, they would go mad
    • pt
      popejumpingjohnpaul t.
      24 November 2020 @ 19:26
      have you see the lad 70m of them voted for?
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      25 November 2020 @ 16:54
      Marco, you are correct but also not honest about how the US has subsidized your ability to get all the treatments and pharma for years on the cheap. It is complicated, and it is a lobbying issue, but to act like other countries have better care than America is just stupid. For point of care health services, it is #1. I as a responsible, not fat, healthy American who exercises would love this backup system IF I needed it (mostly up to me) IF I weren't raped by politicians of the like you support so that other irresponsible people make me pay for their bad health choices and the Bernie Sanders of the world telling them they are owed something.
    • MR
      Marco R.
      25 November 2020 @ 21:36
      LS. What should I say? I argue about the US health care system, and right out of the gate comes the next US guys calling me stupid. Bravo. US health costs are rising for almost a decade between 8-10% and you are calling my argument stupid. Bravo 👍🏻
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      27 November 2020 @ 18:31
      Did you read my comment at all? I didn't say "stupid" anything I just gave you the real analysis.
    • GD
      Graham D.
      2 December 2020 @ 04:57
      LS: Re American healthcare. As a European holidaying in the US I once had to receive some basic healthcare and the point of care service was faultless. However the bill was nuts. It included being charged approx $100 for a square piece of canvas folded up to be used as a sling and $25 for a handful of ibuprofen tablets. And this was 15 years ago. No problems if you’re insured, as I was, but its fairly obvious that such a system will produce sub-optimal outcomes at a population level, which I assume was JG’s point.
  • JR
    John R.
    24 November 2020 @ 20:21
    He's had a little too much of the leftist cool aide. China good... US bad. We're all gonna die from climate change... Blah, blah, blah...
    • PS
      Peter S.
      25 November 2020 @ 07:25
      I really appreciated someone with a bit more nuanced view of the world than media, everything isn't black and white.
    • CG
      Christine G.
      25 November 2020 @ 07:34
      He said absolutely nothing about right and left. He had achieved reasoned conclusions based on data. If you have looked at different data and have reached different conclusions, offer it here.
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      25 November 2020 @ 16:47
      Where do you want us to start? The hoax known as climate change (climate always changing)? That the CCP is a disgusting mafia organization but makes the elites rich so they get a pass? That his generation had it all but now he wants to restrict others capacity to make a living? This is precisely why the world is turning into a technocrat dystopia. And you ask for "data".
    • MP
      Mitchell P.
      2 December 2020 @ 01:49
      I didn't hear him say China good - I heard it more as a warning and statement of what they are actually doing as opposed to a value judgement or an endorsement. Sometimes the truth of what our competitors are up to is very hard to hear - but we ignore it at our collective peril
  • JK
    John K.
    27 November 2020 @ 21:15
    Coming in to this interview I was surprised by the dislike ratio on this video. After watching I now understand. Lol people don’t like being called out for their bullshit. Thank you Jermey for calling out the nonsense that happened during this pandemic. Also for the very honest take on climate change.
    • MP
      Mitchell P.
      2 December 2020 @ 01:42
      Agree most people are more comfortable sticking to ideology and pre-existing beliefs even when overwhelming evidence is right under their noses.
  • RK
    Robert K.
    1 December 2020 @ 20:07
    Mike has Zoom background issues that lead me to go into audio-only mode.
  • JL
    James L.
    29 November 2020 @ 08:38
    yet another supposedly smart person brainwashed by the climate change cult
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      29 November 2020 @ 19:00
      Using the word "cult," as in associating that the guest is a member of a cult, is rude. This aside, if you are going to leave a comment, please use a complete sentence. In the future, please reserve for ZH any non-constructive comments you feel inclined to leave.
    • SB
      Stephen B.
      30 November 2020 @ 00:39
      But James does have a point. I wouldn't use his word "cult" but there is an abundance of evidence that the earth's climatic shift is primarily driven by changes in sun spot activity (so called "space weather") i.e. the same factor that has driven the earths climatic events for millenia. Not manmade CO2. As RV subscribers, we look for a deeper truth than offered by shallow Bloomberg/Yahoo/Jim Cramer analysis and that has to be equally true of the big macro events, such as climate change. Even the great investor, Felix Zulauf, was arguing the other day that he foresaw that a shortened growing season would impact soft agricultural/commodity prices. I don't care for politics but i do care for objectivity and the pursuit of truth, wherever it may lead.
    • DR
      Derrick R.
      1 December 2020 @ 15:56
      Stephen this was debunked at least a decade ago. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/sun-spots-and-climate-change/
  • ar
    andrew r.
    30 November 2020 @ 23:18
    Mike did a great job managing this exchange, but what a train wreck overall. A long-winded, leftist-talking-points rant from what I hoped would be an interesting thinker, given his street cred. Disappointing.
  • ND
    Nivtej D.
    30 November 2020 @ 19:16
    Really good interview with a few prickly moments lol These actually make the interview. Mike can be challenging and not immune from a few off the cuff comments himself. So, going toe-to-toe with JG and taking a few shots is good too. Thanks RV
  • BK
    Brett K.
    30 November 2020 @ 06:18
    Great interview, But the Sinophilia is a bit tiring.
  • pt
    popejumpingjohnpaul t.
    24 November 2020 @ 19:26
    any trump cult bros who think they are smarter than JG want to hit me up with some climate denying alternative 'facts'?
    • pt
      popejumpingjohnpaul t.
      24 November 2020 @ 19:28
      white american males are the only breed on the planet triggered by conclusive scientific conclusions, quite the anomaly, quite the phenomenon.
    • JC
      Jason C.
      24 November 2020 @ 21:02
      I don't know much about JG or what he understands about climate or even the scientific method, but based on this comment I can say with confidence that the both of us are smarter than you.
    • TS
      Thomas S.
      24 November 2020 @ 21:04
      Whew. Message from Antifa
    • MA
      Mateo A.
      24 November 2020 @ 22:02
      @Pope You're right - it is quite the anomaly... But based on my experience it's absolutely useless to insult people. Take a more humble approach, people will surprise you. <3
    • BF
      Bill F.
      24 November 2020 @ 22:04
      I'm not a "Trump bro", just a guy interested in data. Try reading "Unstoppable Global Warming Every 1500 Years" by Fred Singer.
    • KF
      Kenneth F.
      25 November 2020 @ 00:15
      They rip JG is this doc. How are biofuels cleaner than FF? buying wood is not clean but JG owns a lot of timber. https://planetofthehumans.com/
    • RM
      Robert M.
      25 November 2020 @ 01:13
      Climate scientists are very familiar with past hot/cold cycles and their possible causes. Unfortunately what caused past cycles, i.e. 1500 years, is not what is cause the cycle today. The best illustration of the human impact on global warning can be seen on this CO2 chart from NASA: https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/carbon-dioxide/
    • MH
      Martin H.
      25 November 2020 @ 01:56
      Science is never conclusive. If you believe that then you have no understanding of the scientific process. It is ALL open to challenge at ALL times. If not then it is politics not science. Are we doing trolls here @ RV now?
    • MH
      Martin H.
      25 November 2020 @ 01:59
      Climate Science isn't a scientific discipline it is more a political label with some of the worst modeling ever seen attached to it!
    • DH
      Darren H.
      25 November 2020 @ 07:10
      Plenty of left wingers debate what the correct response to climate change is. How does it help the working class to increase the cost of everything through more expensive energy (or taxes if they are subsidised), de-industrialise and outsource our carbon emissions to 3rd world countries, indirectly move jobs to other jurisdictions due to higher input costs, create a massive regulatory state filled with well-connected upper class people that make it impossible to start a small business or work for any other company other than massive global giants? I don’t think climate change is fake, I just think action on climate change disproportionately hurts the working class and benefits well connected rich people. But I guess the left despises the working class now so it figures.
    • VB
      Vikram B.
      25 November 2020 @ 15:02
      Your 'white american males ....' comment is one of your 'conclusive scientific conclusions'? Must be one fun research paper to read. - From a non-white non-American tree-hugger
    • SB
      Stephen B.
      30 November 2020 @ 01:18
      We don't need to personalize this. As custodians of our own and others money, we are only interested in getting to the facts, whatever they may be. What raised red flags for me, on the standard climate change narrative is: (i) our neighboring planets are also experiencing climate change (arguably even more that we are); (ii) Greenland and Antarctic ice core samples, dating back thousands of years, clearly demonstrate that the earths climate has been constantly changing, with some correlation to the earths eccentric orbit and sun spot cycles / activity ("space weather"); (iii) our magnetosphere has deteriorated by a 15% in the last one hundred years and that rate of decay is accelerating alarmingly. Science cannot explain why and certainly no scientist has argued that this is caused by man made CO2. Conversely, there are numerous studies that demonstrate a link between solar radiation and cloud formation; (iv) so called "consensus" climate change models do not factor in solar weather, seismic (including volcanic) activity and the collapsing magnetosphere, thereby effectively dismissing all but human activity. No one knows the full truth of all this but I, for one, know when i am being presented with a one sided story.
  • bs
    brian s.
    25 November 2020 @ 03:46
    Japan has fewer deaths for the simple fact that they're diet is high in vitamin D, masks have nothing to do with it
    • PS
      Peter S.
      25 November 2020 @ 07:31
      One reason for sure - Vitamin D is one of the few factors deciding if to survive or die. But don't forget, how many obese people is there in the US vs Japan...
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      25 November 2020 @ 16:45
      It helps they aren't fat asses too. This isn't a disease of healthy people. But this society isn't honest about health or image, so this is what we get. More lying.
    • SB
      Stephen B.
      30 November 2020 @ 00:55
      You are correct. See the attached British Medical Journal article. Vitamin D should be the first line of treatment but big money is frustrating studies in favor of expensive vaccines. https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3872/rr-5
  • DR
    Derrick R.
    29 November 2020 @ 21:32
    Holy smokes, what an enthralling discussion. Thank you!
  • MJ
    Marius J.
    29 November 2020 @ 20:13
    10/10
  • LS
    Lemony S.
    27 November 2020 @ 18:24
    "Dark Ages" - "Save us from ourselves"? The societal advancement section is breathtakingly brainless. This is why people don't trust people in such positions who pretend to know what's going on, but don't. Japan didn't do anything and didn't get a bad result, and they don't have obesity or longevity issues, yet that's why they did "better" than the US? This guy doesn't even know what he doesn't know. As if most of the country had a problem with Covid, lol, no. Has JG been streaming in Clown Cuomo (either one) daily? My word, so much of this bloviation is an embarrassment it is scary.
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      29 November 2020 @ 19:52
      Your comment is too emotional. Try stepping back a few seconds, or minutes, prior to commenting the next time. Take in a larger perspective. That the focus of your comment is so here and now, that you are yourself bloviating, that you not care that you are insulting a guest by referring to their contribution as "brainless," makes obvious different points that Mr. Grantham touched upon. There is no historical pre-determinism in the outcome of the Unities States. There is permanent thing that exists that is called "American exceptionalism." Americans now are living in a historical accident. We are lucky that we are living now. It won't be this nice forever. It is in our collective interest to do what we can to string out our dominance for as long as we can in as many fields as we can. But, staying on our current course will surely result in a speedy, relative decline. If you are taken aback by Mr. Grantham's views on societal advance, pick up either Turchin or Tainter.
  • MH
    Martin H.
    24 November 2020 @ 02:08
    This guy does no research. Masks actually increase your risk. They are a political feel good measure. The research has been done. He has bought into all the fear. Typical of his generation.
    • CW
      Claude W.
      24 November 2020 @ 02:17
      source please Mr. Research
    • AA
      Aymman A.
      24 November 2020 @ 05:01
      Mr. Martin H. What you are saying is complete garbage. I am a physician. I keep up with the medical literature. Please provide references from peer reviewed journals to back up you claim.
    • NI
      Nate I.
      24 November 2020 @ 06:00
      For Claude W and Aymman A, you might want to have a look at the 1918 pandemic history where we tried masks the first time. See: https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/pdf/10.2105/AJPH.10.1.34 Despite wide spread compliance, they made no difference to the epidemic curve according to the Executive Officer of the California Medical Board. The Danish have recently re-proven what we should have already known from the 1918 experience. see: https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-6817 Politicians don't want to admit that they're mostly impotent to control this virus. They should suggest that we keep our distance from others, optimize vitamin D levels, stay out of crowded facilities, maintain good hygiene and so on. Instead they're using the mask charade to delude voters into thinking they are taking steps to improve public health. In reality, people will mistakenly believe that their face talisman offers protection and they won't feel the need to do the other, more important, things. That could be neutral, but it likely makes things worse rather than better. If politicians really wanted better public health, they would focus on the other factors I mentioned. They might actually do some good not only for cv19 but other causes of mortality; however, the mask mandates offer highly visible optics so that's what they do.
    • TW
      Todd W.
      24 November 2020 @ 07:14
      Can I get your research notes? I'm doing my thesis on dumb people and their sourcing of information
    • BF
      Ben F.
      24 November 2020 @ 17:25
      @Nate I - looking at your recent reference it is not peer reviewed, which means you can't put much weight on it, and even the review itself says it's limitations are as follows: "Inconclusive results, missing data, variable adherence, patient-reported findings on home tests, no blinding, and no assessment of whether masks could decrease disease transmission from mask wearers to others."
    • MH
      Martin H.
      25 November 2020 @ 01:52
      You know that these days in many operating theatres only the staff directly over the patient wear masks AND they do it according to a strict protocol that the mask wearing public NEVER follow. When a shop assistant wears a mask for a shift it becomes saturated enough to aid virus transfer, on top of that the air inside the mask is way more humid and transfer viruses more efficiently, top of that people touch the masks thus increasing the risk of placing a virus nearer your respiratory system for a longer period. The net is that healthy people are better off not wearing masks! Oh and add to that no one changes the mask or washes the mask at anything like the needed intervals. They work in certain environments when used the correct way for the right reasons but for use with the general population they are more of a problem than solution! Face it they are a feel good measure. LOL.
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      25 November 2020 @ 17:03
      I'm a physician too Aymman, stop lying. N95 (and no one wears them) are only 65% effective when used by even trained PHYSICIANS. You aren't stopping anything. The virus is not lethal for healthy people = not lethal. Stop lying to people about life expectations and obesity, which so many who die from this are. No excess mortality anymore beyond INFLUENZA, for which we do little. Stop the lies people.
    • MH
      Martin H.
      29 November 2020 @ 06:45
      Mr Aymman A. It even says it right on the box! Learn to read. https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Mask-Box.jpg Prior to all this becoming politized the CDC had a reference on their website to 14 randomized trials that basically came to the same conclusion. Magically that disappeared after we all went mask crazy. They know that are only useful in certain environments when use according strict protocols. The public are in uncontrolledly environments and they have NO IDEA about using them correctly. Net/net healthy people are better off with out them in public. Read the pervious post, it is basic common sense.
    • MH
      Martin H.
      29 November 2020 @ 06:48
      Todd W. Do your own research and don't insult people you have no idea about you little fool. Play the ball, not the man.
    • MH
      Martin H.
      29 November 2020 @ 06:51
      Claude W. It was all refenced on the CDC website... https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article Article referring to it. https://needtoknow.news/2020/07/cdc-study-based-on-14-clinical-trials-shows-face-masks-do-not-work/
  • DH
    Dominick H.
    28 November 2020 @ 23:34
    i respectfully disagree with Jeremy's view on China. Tell me exactly what new technologies China invented last 50 years? Other than Covid-19 virus, they invented None. All the Chinese big tech companies are actually built on US technology just at bigger scale due to the huge population in China. Huawei cannot even produce its own chips. Jeremy sounded like a globalist/elite from Davo's crowd. He seems to be a true believer of World Econ Forum's agenda, and his investment strategy is based on his believe. I understand his point of view, doesn't mean our future will go that direction. I like every interview Mike has done on RV including this one!
  • JC
    Jason C.
    28 November 2020 @ 23:25
    Thoughts: The global system is already becoming unstable and it's not because of climate change. I found myself agreeing with a lot of the things Grantham said, but disagreed with either why he was saying them or where he was going with them. Didn't expect a discussion on sperm count, but it was very interesting. I started using this app called Think Dirty (also HealthyLiving is supposed to be good) that helps filter out hormone disrupting products but these chemicals should just be banned to begin with. Interesting point about its affect on the chemical industry in the future and I hope he's right. I expect these fertility issues are more as a result of our food and lack of exercise than our shampoo though. Completely agree that our corporations are sociopathic. They are almost like autonomous non-human entities, perhaps similar to AI. Hope he's right about VC - seems like the industry has been very focused on BS like WeWork instead of actual science which is much more expensive to fund.
  • MH
    Mark H.
    28 November 2020 @ 22:00
    ***Masks don't change the coefficient of spread***. If they want to come up with a different reason to force everybody to do that, then so be it. The anti-mask people are loaded for bear and the government knows it. Supposedly, it's being litigated in federal courts right now.
  • MM
    Michael M.
    28 November 2020 @ 19:34
    Mr. Grantham makes a good point about our desperate need for change but overall is pretty much the opposite of everything I love about real vision
  • NS
    Nick S.
    28 November 2020 @ 18:37
    mischaracterization of Milton Friedman's central point on why a business should concern itself only with making a profit. If you come after gods, at least be respectful enough to steel-man the argument.
  • WG
    Wade G.
    28 November 2020 @ 17:08
    I thought almost all of the points made by Mr. G were at least worth careful consideration. Which is not to say that I think I would find myself in agreement with them, or leaning hard against either. Only that he covered some important ground and that long or short, the themes discussed were important.
  • PP
    Patrick P.
    26 November 2020 @ 03:30
    This is all you need to know about this wacko https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/granthams-short-call-cost-his-hedge-fund-over-2-billion
    • MS
      Michael S.
      26 November 2020 @ 04:38
      Too bad ZH isn't a reliable financials blog anymore. It's a racist white-power right-wing Trump-uber-alles blog, now.
    • WG
      Wade G.
      28 November 2020 @ 16:30
      lol... so a bit of objective track record is the standard of judgment? Not an exploration of the process? Not even a comprehensive examination of the complete record of results (which are more than admirable)... This remark is asinine. This is a probabilistic business. I'm sure that whatever reason u dismiss the man has nothing to do with his recent short.
  • TM
    Timothy M.
    28 November 2020 @ 15:26
    Jeremy, please explain how Co2 is a pollutant? Climate change nut job!
  • RS
    Robert S.
    28 November 2020 @ 13:53
    This is the reason I subscribe to RV.
  • WP
    William P.
    27 November 2020 @ 23:13
    Nice interview Mike. I respect Mr G opinions, but he is just wrong on many levels. That we are "lucky" to have vaccines is a bit too much As if innovation had nothing to do with it. Mr G can pontificate about lock downs, while the rest of us have to earn a living God Bless all.
  • LS
    Lemony S.
    27 November 2020 @ 18:33
    "This is life and death" LOL! ... for 0.5% of the population. You can't make this fear mongering stuff up, OMG
  • TL
    Timothy L.
    25 November 2020 @ 14:47
    Great interview. I just wish Grantham would quit holding back and tell us what he really thinks.
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      27 November 2020 @ 18:29
      I agree, I suspect his deeper thoughts are even more disturbing, where they are even coherent.
  • SB
    Stewart B.
    27 November 2020 @ 16:54
    At any time in history, you could always argue the view that society would be better if the State controlled more. Unfortunately, when it has been tried, rarely has State control of anything works productively. Just as Grantham argues individuals are self-serving, we should also point out that politicians and bureaucrats are also self-serving but usually power hungry too. It just comes down to which environment you want to live in. IMHO I enjoy freedom and liberty, especially when it allows me to do good things for my fellow human, rather than being forced to at the barrel of a gun. As usual, great interview from Mike Green.
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      27 November 2020 @ 17:36
      Amen.
  • DW
    Denton W.
    26 November 2020 @ 14:36
    My god, Grantham's rebuttals to Green's arguments were just awful. Full of straw-mans. I would say it was one of the worst interviews I have seen on RV but Mike Green as always was great.
    • EW
      Evan W.
      27 November 2020 @ 17:03
      100%
  • SG
    Steve G.
    27 November 2020 @ 04:54
    Real vision releases it's daily briefing on zh so real vision must be racist and white supremacists by proxy too eh?
  • BD
    Ben D.
    26 November 2020 @ 19:52
    Hearing Jeremy talk about his thoughts changed my view on him and allows for a deeper insight of someone who has a long and storied career. Very glad I watched this interview and learned from someone else's perspective on where the world is heading. It would be a gift if Jeremy could get anyone from the businesses and technology he's backed to do an interview on RV. Josh Wolfe would also make a great interviewer for these topics too if compliance allows. I never thought I would hear Jeremy or mike green talk about sperm counts though. Both funny in its oddity and something you would only get from a RV interview.
  • GA
    Gerald A.
    23 November 2020 @ 08:14
    The case for technocratic fascism (and/or for neofeudal oligarchy, which are my two ways of describing this thing). This is likely the most probable base case for the future socioeconomic model.** **This is not an endorsement.
    • JB
      Joe B.
      23 November 2020 @ 15:45
      I was rereading Hayek and was thinking the same thing. Are we back full circle debating Liberalism vs. Collectivism? History does not repeat itself, but definitely does rhyme... China vs. US model the same discussion as the German/Italian/Russian collectivism of the 19th C vs. England/US Liberalism.
    • AC
      Alvaro C.
      26 November 2020 @ 18:33
      This guy (J. Grantham) sounds like my high school teachers touting the achievements of the USSR and central planning... only to see the USSR collapse a few years later. Disgusting!
  • pt
    popejumpingjohnpaul t.
    24 November 2020 @ 18:44
    Love JG, check out his interviews on Charlie Rose,https://charlierose.com/videos/30816 although like all serious intelligent Europeans he takes climate seriously, which may trigger some of the flat earth trump finance bros.
    • BF
      Bill F.
      26 November 2020 @ 02:39
      So basically anyone who disagrees with your assessment is by definition "a flat earth trump finance bro" .. A perfect example of resorting to slurs because you don't like someone's opinion, rather than actually debating the point. Most likely because you aren't capable of the latter.
  • CJ
    Charles J.
    25 November 2020 @ 15:10
    For those who have a positive reaction to Jeremy how do you reconcile that with his clear obfuscations? He claims China is going to overtake the developed world. Mike asks him how he reconciles that with their demographics. Instead of answering that, he basically says South Korea is worse and they are similar to the developed world. So basically he can't reconcile it.... When asked about China's willingness to ignore the environmental impacts of mining, he basically says well we used to be bad too. When asked about whether switching energy sources is productivity enhancing... He says productivity has been declining for years and then goes on a diatribe about luck and covid 19. I'm guessing he just didn't want to answer the question because there isn't actually a good answer to it. When questioned about his we got lucky narrative, Mike makes the point that it isn't so much luck as a benefit of the experimentation aspects of a less collectivist society... His counter seems to be that because it's the product of small entrants and creative destruction it somehow invalidates Mike's point. Come on, Jeremy... You're literally using his point for him and pretending it somehow invalidates it. In your analogy state sponsored monopolies would be the Merck's of the world. There may be other examples, but I've already gone on far too long. I get that Jeremy has an incredible track record as an investor and he should be commended for that, but I just can't understand how people can listen to this interview and think based on the content of this interview that he's some incredible original thinker who's giving people the hard truth.
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      25 November 2020 @ 16:42
      It seems more common in investing that people who have FORMERLY had great calls tend to be the most full of dung in the future. I like some of these guys (Schiff actually, but jeez how many more years can you be wrong not "early") but we have to suffer guys like Roubini all the time (recently said BTC sucks and it goes ballistic) who seem to be proving they were one trick ponies of the old, easy world of "If you have big money and push people around ..." - yeah JG, that world is over, time's up.
    • DW
      Denton W.
      26 November 2020 @ 01:02
      Very well said
  • JC
    Juan C.
    25 November 2020 @ 22:44
    I've been waiting for this interview in RV for ever! And it happened with Mike Green, Thanks!
  • JY
    John Y.
    25 November 2020 @ 21:57
    PM Angela Merkel forestalled BRD's demographic denouement by a generation in permitting emergency "Einwanderung" of 1M immigrants. France is on track to eclipse BRD GDP in a generation via population growth. Jeremy articulates a "Pascal's wager" viewpoint of climate change.
  • DA
    David A.
    25 November 2020 @ 20:36
    I don’t think this was Grantham’s finest moment but he still presented some powerful arguments about the direction of change even if he was sometimes less compelling on the degree of change. Mike provided just the right amount of challenge, exposing possible weaknesses whilst keeping the interview on track.
  • MG
    Miguel G.
    25 November 2020 @ 17:29
    Loved Mike in this interview. He did a stellar job of challenging Jeremy's points instead of backing down and accepting Jeremy's views because well he is Jeremy Grantham. Well done Mike.
  • DY
    Damian Y.
    24 November 2020 @ 05:37
    This guy sounds like a shill for the CCP. What he has forgotten to tell us about his beloved China, is that they have stolen all of our science, engineering and computer technology that the west has spent the last 500 years discovering and inventing. If he has ever read a science history book, which by his knowledge he hasn't, he would now that just about all the great discoveries in the last 500 years is from the western intellect. Look at cars, radios, tv, computers, telephones, planes, combustion engines, telescopes, microscopes and the list just goes on and on, and let's not forget our exquisite art and music that the western mind has produced. The only reason we are even watching this is by the discovery of electricity and the invention of the computer and internet, which wasn't done by China. The only thing that China is really good at is lying, cheating and stealing. Even he said that the best universities for research are in the US and UK, but he still has to go on about how great a totalitarian dictator government is, that does live organ harvesting on it's people. If China was so great in technology like he is saying, then why aren't western student flocking to Chinese universities wanting to study and work there, and to get access to all this great knowledge that China has? The truth is it's the opposite, Chinese students are flocking to the western university and wanting to live and work in the west because even they know that China is a dirty, polluted corrupt hole. The sad thing is Jeremy actually believes the numbers and propaganda that comes out of China, how naive can one get? Mike did a great job in the interview by trying to open Jeremy myopic and really naive vision. I had to stop watching as I'm really getting sick and tired of hearing people like Jeremy bashing the west, and telling us how great China is. I've been to China and I would prefer to live in the US any day, and I'm sure Jeremy wouldn't like to spend the rest of his life living in his beloved China either. If it wasn't for the west then China would be still reading by candle light and their mode of transport would still be a donkey.
    • MR
      Milton R. | Founder
      24 November 2020 @ 10:21
      Damian please don't forget that one single interview will not shine light on such a complex subject. Jeremy will present his ideas and his thinking and then we'll piece everything together with all the other interviews and even a documentary we did on China over the last few years.
    • MP
      Michael P.
      24 November 2020 @ 18:42
      Nicely done
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      25 November 2020 @ 17:02
      Great work Damian, the uncomfortable reality of the world is that no one wants to talk about the most advanced civilizations due to its "political incorrectness" and unreal fear of "racism." Meanwhile, people look the other way when they can take advantage of Chinese and other SE asians for slave wages, since it keeps the elite and chamber of commerce atop it all, and flying around without a care in the world for "Carbon Emissions." Throw a nice unmasked dinner on there for ME, but not for THEE. If you aren't a patriot or nationalist with the right allegiances, you'll just end up a pawn to the Great Reset set for by guys like JG.
  • JJ
    Jay J.
    24 November 2020 @ 13:06
    Great job by Mike Green as always but w/ all due respect fuck this old POS, would’ve been great to seen Kyle Bass take this one
    • CW
      Corey W.
      24 November 2020 @ 16:08
      I recommend anger management
    • JM
      John M.
      24 November 2020 @ 18:12
      His age is of course irrelevant (except that he has more experience than most).
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      25 November 2020 @ 16:56
      Age is frequently relevant. Without knowing him and seeing that he is, or ever was, virtuous ... by definition he has less skin in the game. Just like a child in diapers he wants what he wants at this stage of his life. I have to deal with his influence on MY next 40-50 years. Think about it.
  • PP
    Patrick P.
    24 November 2020 @ 15:41
    How could this old geezer be so radical... Go back to Britain or move to China .... soon!
    • pt
      popejumpingjohnpaul t.
      24 November 2020 @ 19:26
      hes not radical, youre just square.
    • RM
      Robert M.
      25 November 2020 @ 01:14
      Yes, let's leave American to the uneducated so we can be great again.
    • PP
      Patrick P.
      25 November 2020 @ 13:38
      This is all you need to know about this wacko https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/granthams-short-call-cost-his-hedge-fund-over-2-billion
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      25 November 2020 @ 16:51
      Exactly, who would you want managing your money currently, MG or JG? Haha, what a joke. That shows you which side you should be on, and who is "correct" about what. The boomers are used to the healthy society they forgot about and ruined for everyone else as they aged ...
  • DH
    Darren H.
    25 November 2020 @ 06:38
    Or, you know, the sea level will go up a bit, temperature belts will move north and south and humans will adapt the same as they have adapted to everything in the past. I don’t think climate change is fake I just think a) wind and solar cant power the global economy and b) if you compare the costs of action on climate change to its benefits, politically it will never happen. On another note, its an interesting divide between older people (for whom china/globalisation made them richer) and gen X/ millennials (for whom it made them poorer) and I just think you cant remove these incentives from people’s view. Boomers have this wierd guilt/self hatred thing that they want to project on everyone else. Like sure pal we will just consume less than you did, buy less than you did, own less than you did to assuage your guilt. I am left wing by the way!
    • DH
      Darren H.
      25 November 2020 @ 06:49
      And sorry i should clarify - this isn’t a ‘denier’ thing. I have to defer to scientific experts. But I can’t get behind any response to climate change that involves using inferior energy sources and the decline of the west. Like no. If greenies wanted to talk about gen IV nuclear etc. I’d be all for it, but energy consumption is fundamentally linked to human well being whether its burning wood, coal, gas or fissioning atoms. So get lost boomer, I’m not condemning my kids to living under energy poverty in a communist dictatorship. Europeans man... like if you hate humanity and the west so much then maybe start by offing yourself.
    • DH
      Darren H.
      25 November 2020 @ 06:53
      And boom there it is - if we had the population of the 1900’s! scratch long enough at any greenie and you get a genocidal maniac.
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      25 November 2020 @ 16:43
      Wow, if Darren truly is "left wing" that is honesty never seen among them. It's actually an argument against retarded thought, so I hope you change, Darren. But I'm happy you are realistic and truthful. Great post.
  • PR
    Peter R.
    25 November 2020 @ 15:36
    Mike tried his best to have a discussion on the merits of the arguments that JG was making, whereas JG was continuing to trot out the same example over and over again. It’s not that I don’t agree to some extent with his points, but overall the interview was pretty light on substance.
  • SA
    S A.
    25 November 2020 @ 15:06
    Mike Green just put on a master class in verbal jiu jitsu. I pretty much tuned out the moment Mr. Grantham turned on his PLA propaganda bullhorn. RV, the only knock is where was the Star Wars background music to support young Hans Solo's battle for the Republic's future against the Empire's Sith Lord.
  • VB
    Vikram B.
    25 November 2020 @ 14:59
    Superb! I wish Mike had annoyed him a bit more so that we could have heard the next level of thoughts. I think there is still a level of conversation on why the next wave of collective human endeavours will be better managed by China's systems (if that's what Jeremy believes) than an improved Western/liberal system, in a sustainable way?
  • MG
    Mark G.
    25 November 2020 @ 14:14
    Thank you RV for another great interview. And thank you Mike Green for letting Mr. Grantham respond without interruption. The interview was extremely enlightening.
  • FM
    Francisco M.
    25 November 2020 @ 06:37
    Hard truths.
  • PA
    Paul A.
    25 November 2020 @ 05:00
    MP Materials will be the REE investment for the future. Thank you Chamath Palihapitiya.
  • MM
    Michael M.
    24 November 2020 @ 01:33
    So Trump said we would have immunizations before end of the year...that's when we got them. Why should we believe grantham saying it was uncertain? Sounds a little radical/biased to me.
    • AA
      Aymman A.
      24 November 2020 @ 05:07
      No it is not radical or biased. It WAS very uncertain. Messenger RNA technology is completely new. No vaccine has ever been produced using this technology. No one could have predicted that the vaccine would have a 95% efficacy. ....Trump also said drinking antiseptics would kill the virus. Perhaps you believe him there also?
    • BF
      Ben F.
      24 November 2020 @ 17:27
      saying something is "uncertain" is radical??
    • MS
      Michael S.
      25 November 2020 @ 03:23
      When did you get your vaccination? I haven't gotten mine yet.
  • ST
    Steven T.
    24 November 2020 @ 08:56
    Not surprised to see many negative comments from the conservative crowd when hot topics like climate change, China, american mishandling of covid-19 and declining american exceptionalism are discussed. The truth hurts and is often unacceptable to the conservative. Case in point, conservatives dying of covid-19 still refused to believe they have the virus! The usual denials and righteous justifications only reinforce Grantham's point on the selfishness of Americans who "want to live free at the expense of others". Example is the comment on low mortality rate for covid-19. The reason why such drastic measures need to be implemented is not because of the mortality rate! It's because the entire healthcare system will collapse if many of the infected flood the hospital for treatment. How will the hospital be able to handle them and the usual sick/injured who need urgent care?
    • TP
      Timothy P.
      24 November 2020 @ 17:25
      Pro-tip: Wuhan Flu was released to the world as the CCP didn't bother to restrict flights. But sure, blame everyone else. Lets not forget the WHO and their glad-handling - "nothing to worry about" soon pivoted to sterner warnings as the coverup was failing in Wuhan. The CCP deftly deflected all blame, even blaming Europe for the origin. And you all ate it up with nary a critical comment. Ridiculous.
    • BF
      Ben F.
      24 November 2020 @ 17:45
      Timothy we all know covid came from China; the point is how it was dealt with once it got to the US. Grantham isn't trying to pass some moral or emotional judgement, just where he sees a country doing well for future growth, by whatever system it may using.
    • FS
      Fernando S.
      25 November 2020 @ 01:46
      kind of gross to talk about but considering healthcare is a business in the US how is having more customers than you can handle going to collapse the industry? Much like another business they would expand capacity where needed. they got practice doing that last year and some were so little used after expensive renovations that they shut them down to hold presidential debates...
  • MH
    Martin H.
    24 November 2020 @ 01:56
    WOW, Disappointed with the green dogma. Makes you wonder if he has done any serious digging on the matter. Regardless I think that the New Green Deal is coming, it is an new religion and it will be forced upon us no matter how senseless some of it is. CO2 grows plants people, it's not pollution!
    • CP
      Chamil P.
      24 November 2020 @ 03:59
      Too much of a good thing? We are killing the plants and forests and increasing the number of humans who don't find it as useful. It also traps heat which is a good thing at certain levels but can also be bad. https://climatekids.nasa.gov/carbon/#:~:text=The%20Short%20Answer%3A,ocean%20would%20be%20frozen%20solid.
    • MH
      Martin H.
      25 November 2020 @ 01:42
      Yup that is the dogma! Only NASA reports that the planet is getting greener etc, etc... Frankly I can't be bothered but do go listen to the largely silenced but dissenting scientific voices.
  • DG
    Dave G.
    24 November 2020 @ 23:45
    I thought it was an interesting video. Just curious if he is still net short stonks since June? Something tells me he will have the last laugh.
  • LM
    Lorin M.
    24 November 2020 @ 08:41
    Quick question, Jeremy: when China produces all of those electric buses and cars and solar panels and wind turbines, does it do so with green energy? A fortune will certainly be made in green energy--almost entirely by cronies of the political class. They'll disappear with the taxpayer subsidies (without which the entire industry is non-viable) and ordinary investors will get Solyndra'd. But bet the ranch gents, because, you know...if it doesn't work we're all dead anyway.
    • LM
      Lorin M.
      24 November 2020 @ 08:53
      ^^Posted before I got to the "Dirty Job of Greening the Economy" segment. Good on Mike for raising those issues.
    • JM
      John M.
      24 November 2020 @ 18:20
      The world needs green energy, we all agree, but we don't have it yet. I am not convinced solar panels & wind mills (turbines) are the solution. More likely fusion....
  • CT
    Chris T.
    23 November 2020 @ 14:58
    Grantham clearly hasn't seen the Danish study on (3 layer surgical) masks... not the fabric everyone seems to wear and virtue signal from "The recommendation to wear surgical masks to supplement other public health measures did not reduce the SARS-CoV-2 infection rate among wearers "
    • CC
      Casey C.
      23 November 2020 @ 17:00
      Seek out all the data Chris, including and probably most importantly, the empirical data, not just that which confirms your personal biases. Then, to sort it all out...a simple step. Apply common sense. It's a wonderfully liberating process.
    • LK
      L K.
      23 November 2020 @ 17:37
      Some pertinent results from the study: fewer than 40 people of intervention and control groups out of ~2400 each tested positive. ~30 had positive antibody tests. But with a quoted specificity of 99.2% ~20 false positives would be expected in both groups. This introduces a large systematic error into the efficacy calculations. With the more accurate PCR test, there were 0 positives in the mask group and 5 positive in the control group. Inerpretation: the study was statistically underpowered and therefore unlikely to show a statistically significant result (even if one truly exists). To be able to draw a reliable conclusion (either for or against masks), much larger number of positive PCR test would be required. Unfortunately the people pushing this study appear to either not understand or care about basic principles of statistical inference and experimental design.
    • CT
      Chris T.
      24 November 2020 @ 14:01
      Casey.. i referenced a study.. you know ones with empirical data. I'd suggest its your personal bias that glazed over that reference
    • BF
      Ben F.
      24 November 2020 @ 17:38
      Danish study is here: https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-6817 It is NOT peer reviewed, so not considered a quality, reliable study, at least at this stage. Even the review says it's limitations are the following: "Inconclusive results, missing data, variable adherence, patient-reported findings on home tests, no blinding, and no assessment of whether masks could decrease disease transmission from mask wearers to others."
  • AM
    Alastair M.
    24 November 2020 @ 17:34
    Outstanding interview. Admirable knowledge and a perspective rooted in experience and objectivity. Very clear on the direction of travel and the system failures that need to be addressed. This should be relayed to all political and large corporate actors in the US and UK. They have a lot to answer for
  • NI
    Nate I.
    24 November 2020 @ 05:20
    I often wonder why these America bashers don't pack their bags and move to the promised lands that do everything so much better.
    • CW
      Claude W.
      24 November 2020 @ 14:50
      There are things that are great in the U.S. system (which he well pointed out) and other things that are not so great. Always puzzles that people get so irritated when one dares to critique the U.S.
  • JN
    Jack N.
    24 November 2020 @ 14:47
    This guys uneconomic greening policy is whackery...will require fascist control.
  • JJ
    Jay J.
    24 November 2020 @ 13:23
    This guy talks about declining fertility, sperm count and life expectancy but many of these products and prescription drugs come from China just like “COVID 19” which he conveniently never mentioned once came from China
  • tc
    thomas c.
    24 November 2020 @ 09:59
    Another great Mike Green interview. He extracts the best from his interviewees. Hard to swallow JG's views on China and pollution. Wish he had been told how many coal fired power plants China is building, not to mention India. Most china solar panels are exported. The % of solar and thermal in China is a joke. And there many REs in Australia, So. American and in US. I lost big on one that just couldn't clear the hurdle of the govt environmental studies at current prices. Chemical industries another great example in China. No one else wants it. He should visit some of the towns in China where REs and chemical processing is done. I haven't but reports say very large numbers of dwarf and retarded deformed people. Comparing China to America 100 years ago is no excuse.
  • VK
    Vaclav K.
    24 November 2020 @ 07:25
    Swarm-think was strong in this interview. Most lessons of individualism underlying all that works are lost. I don't believe that China reports their covid numbers truly. Also they don't have so many comorbidities. The green energy will bring impoverishment a ultimately ecological troubles. Uranium and fusion, perhaps could help. Waiting for new batteries, maybe.
  • TW
    Thomas W.
    23 November 2020 @ 21:58
    Clearly JG has become a spokesman for the CCP, "Addressing their toxic air better than we did in 1900" It is such a ridiculously simple and stupid statement I almost had to turn it off there.
    • JH
      Jesse H.
      23 November 2020 @ 22:01
      It certainly seems that way, I'm afraid.
    • CW
      Charles W.
      23 November 2020 @ 23:33
      Thomas W. I normally don't bother commenting on RV interviews as they are mostly excellent but felt the need after listening to Mike Green's interview of Jeremy Grantham. I listened to this as I have a great deal of respect for MG. But, WOW!, after listening I find that I agree 100% with your succinct observation (above). It is unfortunate that JG didn't read Jonathan Ward's excellent book "China's Vision of Victory" or listen to MG's interview of Ward on 11/18/2020 before his own 11/23/2020 interview with MG. And if JG did read Ward's book or listen to the interview, he didn't absorb what's there. I visited China in 2009, was involved in industrial energy production (supplier side) for many years, and know what the real story is in China. Why didn't JG mention that China was starting up one new +1,000 MW coal fired power plant per week for years and years to provide the power for their burgeoning industrial and residential energy demands. That's 50 plus plants per year. Times 5 to 10 years... 250 to 500 new coal fired power plants. He's so well informed - in his opinion - that he surely must know this fact. They are still building new ones. And trust me their pollution controls are of secondary concern.... China's current Solar & EV does nothing to reduce their dependance on Coal Fired electrical energy production. Wake up JG. But he is correct that China plans to dominate this new industry - as well as any other industry that they can dominate. I also witnessed forced technology transfer (IP theft) first hand. So of course they can have a much higher growth rate when other countries and companies have to do it the old fashioned way and learn from their mistakes over time. And, my God, their system and culture is "safety last." Western countries would never allow what is SOP there. So, it is OK for China to 'pee in their soup' but is it is a mortal sin for Western countries to spit in theirs - relatively speaking. He mentioned the burning river (Cuyahoga, 1969) in the USA. That's where the EPA came from with the Clean Air and Clean Water Acts (both necessary). We've cleaned up our act in Western Countries - air, water, etc. They haven't scratched the surface in China and it sure isn't important to them as it is in Western Countries. So forgive me for laughing out loud while at the same time cursing JG's inane comments. JG did make a large number of stupid and overly simple statements. Am I mistaken in my observation that he is full of himself? Pompus? Arrogant? Wow. From what I just listened to - all of it - JG is likely 100% behind the "Great Reset" to fix America... Central Planning to the rescue in America with people like him standing behind the curtain controlling all the levers and knobs because they know better than the smelly Walmart shoppers. He also has no apparent understanding of the basic issues in this country - meaning what caused them - yet he knows how to solve them. I will touch on 2 big ones. US primary & secondary Education sucks - true. University education has deteriorated. Answer the question 'why?' honestly to get an understanding of how to address decline in this system - which he apparently has no interest in delving into. Free education if it is a poor education isn't a fix. Corporate Welfare is a huge issue - true. Why? Again, answer the 'why?' question honestly. Corporate welfare is, in significant part, a by product of lobbying.... How do we fix that? Complicated topic but for sure put all players on equal footing and don't just reward the folks who insure the reelection of politicians. Was JG's solution to issues in America to get more PhDs into government? He pointed out how the CCP was heavily staffed by them (US educated I bet, too). His comment implies that he has no idea what all of the WA DC think tanks and lobbying firms are full of besides the obligatory lawyers, yep - tons of PhDs... And don't they actually write the laws for the House and Senate to pass? Check it... they produce the documents - with all the goodies that their special interest needs to thrive - and the elected bodies pass them. Crazy, right? So more PhDs to the rescue. And I could go on and on and on but this isn't the platform...
    • PP
      Patrick P.
      24 November 2020 @ 05:07
      Charles W.... Outstanding comment! BRAVO !!
  • ds
    durgesh s.
    24 November 2020 @ 05:04
    Amazing Clarity of Jeremy Grantham his reputation has a reason for the same and Mike Green as always a great host, not getting pushed however soft enough with data and thoughts
  • MH
    Martin H.
    24 November 2020 @ 02:09
    OK... I'm done waste of time.
  • MP
    Michael P.
    24 November 2020 @ 02:06
    Don Quixote.. tilting at windmills.
  • KC
    Kirk C.
    24 November 2020 @ 01:28
    He must have quit reading the science of climate change in 2010 - the latest research on solar forcing numbers absolve CO2 completely - the furnace had been running hot since the late 70s - if you do not use the new solar forcing adjustments for your climate change models you are more likely to predict the number of angels dancing on the head of a pin
    • MH
      Martin H.
      24 November 2020 @ 01:57
      It's religion, people stop thinking once they swallow the lie.
  • DI
    Daniel I.
    24 November 2020 @ 01:42
    I learned much from the interview and the comments, thanks for the great interview Jeremy and thanks to the real vision community.
  • DZ
    Dan Z.
    23 November 2020 @ 15:56
    Does anyone remember the days of climate cooling mania, that we were going to all freeze to death? How about the giant hole in our ozone in the early 2000s? Some how all that is forgotten...
    • MS
      Michael S.
      24 November 2020 @ 01:06
      The ozone hole was in the 1980s, and it was fixed because we stopped using hydrofluorocarbons. And Communism did not take over. And the economy did not implode. Nixon also started the EPA, and millions of Americans are alive because of that. Look at all that leaded gas, suspended in the air: https://timeline.com/la-smog-pollution-4ca4bc0cc95d Maybe we should put lead back into gasoline?
  • AH
    Allan H.
    24 November 2020 @ 00:37
    Mike Green is a superb interviewer. Thx.
  • MK
    Mark K.
    23 November 2020 @ 21:23
    I liked the interview..... but wow, that is one grumpy, authoritarian old man.
    • CJ
      Charles J.
      24 November 2020 @ 00:07
      Is there anything more dangerous than a man who feels the moral justification to impose his will on other people? Jeremy Grantham honestly scares me.
  • VN
    Vitali N.
    23 November 2020 @ 23:44
    clearly, all those comments calling Grantham CCP mouthpiece were not old enough over a decade ago when he was personally one of the largest critics of China. I wish Mike had asked him about that evolution. The speech Mike described hearing in 2000, I heard at the 2001 CFA annual conference. I remember thinking to myself, who the heck is this guy, asking a 1000 CFAs who here thinks the market will go down 30% from here, May'01, and watching half a dozen hands go up). I have invested in the GMO AA and then Benchmark-Free fund ever since, through thick and thin, It was not always easy, like Grantham said, when they are wrong, they are wrong, but not from the lack of trying. Having read his quarterly commentary over the years, I was glad to see the old man stick to his guns. value-oriented, fact-based, history informed perspective is not an easy road to follow in the age of narratives. my wife knows that if something happens to me, she must keep a 3rd of the life insurance proceeds in the GMO ARF. I also found it touching - the amount of respect Mike showed his mentor. Refreshing! Thank you!
  • JG
    James G.
    23 November 2020 @ 23:31
    If you want to be obedient to authority in all things, move your ass to China which you seem to worship. This chap isn't on my 'respect' list. He's an eco-religious fanatic.
  • DT
    David T.
    23 November 2020 @ 22:07
    Chinese will steal all those results of the research and development investments America will make.
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      23 November 2020 @ 23:14
      Sounds like you will like Kyle Bass' interview tomorrow with Steve Clapham 😊
  • MJ
    Max J.
    23 November 2020 @ 23:04
    Jeremy's assessments were spot on (IMO) and brutally honest. Great, really great!
  • NS
    Nicolas S.
    23 November 2020 @ 22:33
    Terrific discussion, thank you for the perspectives.
  • kR
    kirk R.
    23 November 2020 @ 22:30
    Well... that was the first RV video I decided not to finish on purpose.
  • AK
    Andrew K.
    23 November 2020 @ 22:26
    Great discussion. Don’t forget about Vanadium!
  • RM
    Ron M.
    23 November 2020 @ 10:28
    Grantham is so spot on about the opportunity in early-stage venture capital. Venture offers one of the last sectors to find growth in areas like technology, biotech, and clean technology. The lack of information and liquidity and long investment horizon sets up the dynamic for opportunistic returns. Amazing that Grantham has adapted after so many years outperforming in the equity capital markets. Great interview!
    • GA
      Gerald A.
      23 November 2020 @ 15:55
      The public funds most of the basic and applied research in universities. The oligarchal class skims an outsized portion of the value created through venture capital. The public is left with the crappy public companies who overpay for these assets as VC sells them. And whose CEO's only create value for themselves by levering up at ZIRP, and buyback shares to juice the stock price, and their stock option compensation. Hide the pollution in developing or emerging markets, or in undemocratic countries. Not a sustainable economic model for liberal democracy. All you have to do is look around you.
    • RM
      Ron M.
      23 November 2020 @ 22:08
      Gerald, I agree you do need to be in the top ~10% of venture funds to achieve opportunistic returns. I don't disagree that it's a bit of a racket, but just talking about return potential.
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    23 November 2020 @ 22:00
    According to Grantham, Mike "specialises in these compound and complicated questions." That's because Mike grasps complexity - based on this interview, I certainly can't say the same for you, Mr. Grantham.
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    23 November 2020 @ 21:55
    Great job, Mike - I appreciate your deferent challenges to Grantham. So much of what he said reflects commonly held assumptions, held by the global elite, which in the light of evidence are simply not true. Some cases in point: 1. The "only way" to get to a greener world is to extract rare earth minerals and engage in a "Green New Deal" with significantly more restrictions on human choice. That's absolutely not true - as a former energy engineer, environmentalist, and farmer, I can tell you unequivocally that through better use of farmland and build-up of topsoil globally, we could sequester as much and possibly more of the GHGs in the atmosphere than necessary. See Project Drawdown for more information on this. 2. The magnitude of the COVID "crisis" in Japan is due to how *obedient* the population is (notice the language I'm using here - there's a reason, and you're going to see more of it in the months and years to come). Also probably not true - why? Because there are MANY reasons Japan may have had an easier time with COVID - e.g. the leanness and relative health of their elderly population; and they drink a huge amount of green tea and eat sea vegetables, both of which are high in Zinc Ionophores and polyphenols, respectively, that may reduce their susceptibility as well. We have no serious evidence I'm familiar with that shows to any extent that it has to do with mask use. 3. "The virus is everywhere" - perhaps, but the government restrictions and "lockdowns" do not square at all with the zero to negative curves of Excess Deaths in many countries. See the work of Ivor Cummins (@fatemperor on Twitter). Another curiosity is this: if COVID is so dangerous and scary, then why the hell is it that not one official website in any of the Western countries states clearly that, as proven out by recent and significant studies, Vitamin D3 cuts mortality risk from COVID-19 by 89%. Yes, you read that right - almost 90%. Respectfully, none of the above squares with Grantham's thinking on the state of our world.
  • sh
    steve h.
    23 November 2020 @ 20:18
    Wow Mike green has been working hard. Really like his interviews.
  • RR
    Ronald R.
    23 November 2020 @ 20:04