A Year in Review: Recession Watch

Published on
December 31st, 2019
Duration
12 minutes


A Year in Review: Recession Watch

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Published on: December 31st, 2019 • Duration: 12 minutes

There is only one sure bet in finance: the certainty of another crisis. We are not in the business of being alarmists, but when experts across the board begin to worry, we consider it our duty to listen and bring it to the attention of members of the Real Vision family. Tune in as we recap the most telling interviews on the timing, magnitude, catalysts, probabilities and expectations for the next recession.

Comments

Transcript

  • SM
    Stephen M.
    3 January 2020 @ 23:32
    Too many 'Raoul got it wong' comments. I disagree. He never actually made a recession call, did he?. If I'm wrong about that, I'll change my mind quick. As far as I'm aware, he was saying that the probability for a recession, given all that was happening had increased. He was right. Second. He should be judged on process not outcome. We can do absolutely everything right and still not have a good outcome. Show me one person who predicted the repo bailout. Everything Raoul was saying was well reasoned, logical and based on experience. The decision to go along with this narrative was not unreasonable. The process here was sound. Third. It's too early to say. Dont we typically have up to 18 months from YC inversion for recession to show up. And finally. Raoul still done well here from his thesis. If I remember correctly he killed it with bonds and EU$. No problems from me here on this. I want RV to provide me with info, data and insights that are honest and well thought out. I'm of the opinion that they are telling me what to do with my money.
    • SM
      Stephen M.
      3 January 2020 @ 23:34
      * NOT of the opinion....
    • GK
      George K.
      16 January 2020 @ 20:09
      He got it wrong dude. It is ok.
  • GZ
    Garick Z.
    1 January 2020 @ 22:22
    In this recession prediction discussion, I am not seeing much appreciation and accounting for the very real dynamic impacts on the US economy related to the tax cuts, regulatory reform, and energy price reductions for manufacturers. Size of economy is just about back on track from the very low growth following 08/09. I chalk up the long expansion to the extended time it has taken to revert to mean.
    • DS
      David S.
      14 January 2020 @ 02:57
      Or just injecting massive QE and lowering corporate taxes for buybacks. US revenues low, deficits through the roof. DLS
  • CT
    Christopher T.
    2 January 2020 @ 18:10
    S&P up 30% while RV was calling for a recession.
    • WM
      Will M.
      5 January 2020 @ 18:55
      You are not looking at the bigger picture here if your implication is RVT has it all wrong. I absolutely don't disagree that the S&P could go much higher yet. Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
    • mw
      michael w.
      7 January 2020 @ 20:51
      S&P is no longer a reflection of the real economy.
    • JC
      John C.
      8 January 2020 @ 04:06
      not up much from Dec 2018 melt down, but I hear you. Fed's complete pivot and move to QE4 is what is propping up markets now. Could definitely go on awhile longer. Let's see what this Iran situation brings but feels like we will continue to see 'buy the dip' opportunities for the time being.
  • JM
    Jim M.
    2 January 2020 @ 21:28
    When I first joined years ago I remember the litany of Bears seen on RV. Somebody said: "Hey, you guys need to get some Bulls on here!" Grant replied: "We're not necessarily looking for Bears, we're looking for 'smart' and we're finding it with the bearish camp." Somebody once told me to watch out and try not to fall prey to the bearish spin. The point is, he told me, is that bearish view always sounds so very intelligent and well-thought out.
    • WM
      Will M.
      5 January 2020 @ 18:57
      You might want to try Martin Armstrong Jim. His model shows the potential for big market gains. But ultimately its not necessarily good news......
    • JM
      Jim M.
      6 January 2020 @ 15:03
      Thanks Will.
  • DS
    David S.
    1 January 2020 @ 23:08
    When banks started expropriating bank deposit in Spain, Greece, Cypress, etc., it was a desperate move to save themselves – don’t worry your money is safe in my bank. This was followed by the ECB loaning countries billions of Euro so they could pay off the safe sovereign Greek loans to German, British, French etc. banks – someone save our county’s banks. This saddled all the populations of Greece, Spain, Cypress etc. with enormous national debts while spinning them into recessions and grief. Since banks can now confiscate deposits, this opened the door to negative interest rates for sovereign bonds which is an easily collected tax. I expect Ms Lagarde to lower all interest rates especially at the short end. Of course, this will just drive more money to the US Dollar. Central Bankers are trying every trick in the book to recover from the 2008 train wreck caused by Wall Street. Ms Lagarde’s job is much more difficult than the Fed because of the structure of the ECB and the Euro. Good luck with your health and investments in 2020. DLS
    • WM
      Will M.
      5 January 2020 @ 18:53
      Great comment David. We must never forget how we got here, who paid the price and WHY this is simply not over by a long shot......
  • UJ
    Ulf J.
    3 January 2020 @ 07:50
    It is great to listen to Raoul to get your mind around the problem in the economy.
  • CB
    C B.
    31 December 2019 @ 22:34
    I'm not sure what to make of this video other than a lot of RV interviewees got it wrong. That includes Raoul on his Euro Bank call. The Euro Stoxx bank index bottomed on the exact day of the video airing and was up 26% into year-end. Everyone gets it wrong at times. Would be nice to have an explanation of why the calls didn't work out.
    • CG
      Christian G.
      31 December 2019 @ 23:16
      At the time of the recording, we just had a .25 interest rate cut, then August jobs report came in and everyone factored in another .25 cut for September. Then repos spiked in September and $125 billion per month QE started.. and yet another rate cut.. These actions are making waves across markets, everything is being reevaluated and complacency reinforced.
    • DS
      David S.
      2 January 2020 @ 02:40
      C.B. Have you ever thought that all the central banks and all the king's men took Mr Pal's advice and flooded the market with liquidity to keep Mr. Dumpty from falling. DLS
    • CT
      Christopher T.
      2 January 2020 @ 18:32
      its no so much about getting the calls wrong that is the problem, its the lack of humility, digging your heels in and staying wrong, that ruins their credibility.
    • DS
      David S.
      3 January 2020 @ 04:07
      All I expect from RVTV is honest opinions and the facts or narrative to support them. This is my starting point on the way the market is. It is then my responsibility to develop my own narrative and my own trades. If you want to know the future go to a fortune teller. DLS
  • JM
    Jim M.
    31 December 2019 @ 17:54
    We have to see this stuff. Alarmism. When we get to the point where there's an absence of experts worrying THAT is when I'll worry. It's the train you don't see - that's the one you get hit by.
    • AM
      Alonso M.
      1 January 2020 @ 14:25
      Not really Jim. The time to worry is when the pros are worrying AND the amateurs have amped up their giddiness to eleven AND the amateurs believe they are the new pros and are mocking the old pros. The time is now.
    • JM
      Jim M.
      2 January 2020 @ 16:01
      Minum ....The worrying and alarmism that you hear and read about is ALWAYS done by the "pros". The amateurs don't have a forum.
  • JP
    Jonathan P.
    31 December 2019 @ 20:09
    when raoul turns bullish US equities its time to sell. otherwise stay long and enjoy the ride.
    • MP
      Matthew P.
      31 December 2019 @ 21:31
      He made one of the best calls of all time last year being bearish...no need to hate on the man he's really smart
    • CG
      Christian G.
      1 January 2020 @ 00:07
      Jonathan, are you just yelling from the other side of the trade or do you fundamentally disagree with every fact based analysis he has provided with available information/monetary policies in effect at the time? Because it sounds like you don't belong here.
    • TC
      Thomas C.
      2 January 2020 @ 15:24
      I used to think this way and taunt perma bears for being wrong for years, etc... But then I realized it is all just "food for thought". Anyone who writes a newsletter, gives their opinions....its just more "food for thought". Maybe you get an idea or two out of it. But you always make up your own conclusions from EVERYTHING you read and observe. This idea of bashing people who have strong opinions, and may have been early, or wrong....is just very immature. I eventually grew out of it. Thank you Raul I very much enjoy listening to you. Please as always don't be afraid to keep putting a stake in the ground with your convictions.
  • TC
    Thomas C.
    2 January 2020 @ 15:03
    In general I would like to hear way more RV guests asked about their PERSONAL portfolio's. Especially the analysts and newsletter writer guests. How do they have all their wealth allocated right now? Maybe put a pie chart up at the end of every video like the bullet pointed summaries.
  • DS
    David S.
    2 January 2020 @ 00:09
    In this new massive money driven world, we can have a moderate recession and a rising market. The market is determined my the inflow of capital. There may be a continuation of money flowing into the market from baby boomers topping of savings, money flowing from negative rates in Europe, etc. etc. that can support a rising market when the economy is in recession. We are in a money centered world when corporation buybacks exceed CapEx. Everything is so short term, planning the return on capital expenditures is difficult. Corporate execs can keep their job and make more money buying back company stock. With all the money to be invested from QE ad infinitum vast sums of money will go into the top index stocks taking the index higher. DLS
  • WM
    Will M.
    1 January 2020 @ 17:05
    It is absolutely true, as Marty Armstrong says, this may be the most hated bull market in history. Indeed I have avoided it and paid a dear price for not being in it. But I haven't lost anything and have loads of powder. I think it feels like everyone (almost) think things are going to just continue pottering along with interest rates at historical lows and sovereign debt now way way way above the 2007 levels. I am clearly stupid, or at least a bit feeble minded I guess. The US is now running a trillion dollar debt in what is supposedly a "good economy", my god, what happens if there is a recession? I think Raoul's commentary on the European crisis around 2013 is absolutely fanf***ingtastic. That was reality and his clearly emotional synopsis outstanding. I think he is absolutely right to warn to the best of his experience.
  • DC
    Dan C.
    1 January 2020 @ 12:40
    What many fail to acknowledge is that the Fed is a private entity created by hoodwinked president in 1913. A cabal of wealthy families created the fed and to this day continue to receive their annual 6% dividend. The shareholders are all secret. The fed has never been audited even after repeated calls from Congress. It’s no wonder the Feds are raping middle America of all its wealth. They load up their balance sheet with more debt to juice their dividend which they most likely then further juice in the Fed-rigged stock market. If America wants to become great again it first needs to rid itself of the parasitic leech that is the Fed. The 0.001% know their empire is coming to an end and like pigs at the trough, are feasting on the final crumbs before the empire collapses. Read Empire of Debt by Bill Bonner. Published in 2006 it’s still very pertinent today.
  • Dd
    Daniel d.
    31 December 2019 @ 09:16
    Can you guys update the killer charts PDF?
  • SP
    Steve P.
    31 December 2019 @ 07:10
    Write calls. Write calls worthless. Open another account and fund it separately - to take the opposite side. Which is writing makes puts prepared for a reasonable assignment, or appropriate cycle.