Breaking Down Raoul Pal’s Unfolding Thesis

Published on
October 4th, 2020
22 minutes

The Real Vision Origin Story: From Wine-Soaked Conversations in a Spanish Fishing Village to a Global Financial Revolution

Breaking Down Raoul Pal’s Unfolding Thesis

Presentations ·
Featuring Steven Van Metre

Published on: October 4th, 2020 • Duration: 22 minutes

In episode 1 of this new weekly series, Steven Van Metre, CPF, a macro fund manager and creator of "Portfolio Shield", breaks down Raoul Pal's recent Expert View "Has Everything Changed?", and provides his views to help enhance everyone's understanding of the macro narrative. Steve reviews Raoul’s three-part 'Unfolding' thesis and takes a deeper dive into the insolvency phase and the outlined concepts. Filmed on September 28, 2020.



  • FW
    Florian W.
    9 January 2021 @ 11:21
    Thank you for this very easy and clear analysis.
  • MR
    Milton R. | Founder
    5 January 2021 @ 12:32
    hey, here's the original video:
  • PL
    Paul L.
    27 December 2020 @ 20:43
    Just joined... As per AVs comment below, can someone point me towards RPs content that SVM is commenting on... Can't find info in comments below or via site search... Any help appreciated. Thanks, PL
  • AV
    Andonis V.
    24 December 2020 @ 00:00
    Where can I find the videos of Raoul's three-part unfolding thesis? Had some trouble searching for it in videos.
  • TK
    Timothy K.
    9 December 2020 @ 00:09
    This series with SVM is great
  • MP
    Michele P.
    21 October 2020 @ 09:59
    Steven I have a question. Everywere we have investor talking about short term and long term in the macro world. Maybe it seems to simple but.... What do you mean by that??? Short term is 3 months, 6 months, or more??? And long term is 1 year, 2 years, 5 years??? What is your frame??? Thanks for sharing.
    • MH
      MICHAEL H.
      22 November 2020 @ 16:17
      Indeed - the million dollar question. I'm guessing a comparison with the timespan of the Gear Depression might be appropriate for the bigger cycle (but I hope not)?
  • MH
    22 November 2020 @ 16:14
    Thanks to Steve I now largely understand most of the content. (Very personable chap too.).
  • RT
    Ryan T.
    12 November 2020 @ 11:00
    Steven is really effective and concise in summarising Raoul's piece on the Unfolding thesis. I enjoyed all other videos by Steven as well. Keep going and keep it up!
    • MF
      Mike F.
      19 November 2020 @ 15:58
      I agree. Steve is a real asset to the team. Steve breaks down data so well.
  • OB
    Olly B.
    22 October 2020 @ 14:32
    Great Video!
  • JJ
    Jay J.
    17 October 2020 @ 23:23
    awesome video, keep them coming
  • EO
    Erk O.
    15 October 2020 @ 08:27
    When we will see next episode? Is it supposed to be a weekly show, right?
    • GS
      George S.
      16 October 2020 @ 12:51
      This weekend. Still ironing out the process to make it weekly, but we will get there by the end of the month.
  • HJ
    Harang J.
    12 October 2020 @ 17:56
    This is so good.
  • MK
    Mihhail K.
    9 October 2020 @ 08:31
    Would be awesome if RV could do a separate video explaining QE and repo loans in greater detail, cause everyone talks about central banks "printing money" but is that really the case? This part is still very confusing to me.
    • MH
      MeiJade H.
      11 October 2020 @ 23:20
      I agree, since Steve just said that QE isn't "printing money."
    • PH
      Patrick H.
      12 October 2020 @ 15:06
      QE is an asset swap between the central bank and its commerical banks, The central bank exchanges its reserves for the commercial banks' securities. In this way it brings in money into the economy, but no 'new' money was creted on the part of the central bank (it just swapped the reserves it already had). Conversely, money is "printed" when a loan is given out by commercial banks through an accounting trick. I highly, highly recommend studying Richard Werner's work, starting with Princes of the Yen - both the documentary + book (as there is more detail in book). Then jump on his website because that is another gold mine.
  • AI
    Alan I.
    12 October 2020 @ 14:39
    Thanks Steve. Your explanations really help a noobie like myself. Much appreciated.
  • JC
    John C.
    11 October 2020 @ 20:20
    Thx Steve. I appreciate the explanation
  • IH
    Ian H.
    11 October 2020 @ 03:48
    This just became my new must listen to segment. Thanks Steven.
  • DS
    David S.
    4 October 2020 @ 19:05
    Since you asked for feedback: This video projects your bias "Banks do not want to lend." on Mr. Pal's macro position. My position is banks always want to lend when there is an expectation of borrowing short and lending long with a risk adjusted return. It is the banking business. When we are entering an insolvency phase and banks recognized that we are entering an insolvency phase loan issuance should go down. This is not a bank conspiracy! It is responsible banking. How much would you loan to someone going out of business with no assets? I wish you good luck on your weekly review of an exchange presentation. To the extent that you present and help interpret the other person's idea it surely will work. If it is to put your spin on someone's idea it will not be helpful. I am sorry that this is harsh. Your idea is excellent. I want you to present the program as you wish. As a conspiracy discussion, it will have a good following, but it should be much more. DLS
    • SV
      Steven V. | Contributor
      4 October 2020 @ 20:46
      The SLOOS data shows the banks don't want to lend since they tightened lending standards.
    • DS
      David S.
      5 October 2020 @ 01:15
      Steven V. - Banks are tightening lending standards because they know the risk of insolvencies on current and future loans is increasing. They listen to RV too. No one, especially a banker, wants to make a loan that will not be paid back. Have you seen the huge loan loss reserves that banks put on their books in the second quarter? They will probably have to increase loan loss reserves in the third quarter also. This is responsible banking. Maybe I am missing something simple. Maybe banks should decrease lending standard and lend more money as the insolvency phase progresses?? One of us is wrong on the cause and the effect. I believe banks are tightening loan requirements to lessen loan defaults. I do not believe that the banks are tightening loan requirements to crash the markets. The big bank's prop desks are happy for markets and IPOs to keep on trucking. They are excellent at profiting on the volatility. DLS
    • JL
      John L.
      10 October 2020 @ 14:11
      The banks "don't want to lend" (Steven) to people or businesses if they think they "will not be paid back" (David S). You two smart guys are both saying the same thing and are both right. Game on. :-)
    • DS
      David S.
      11 October 2020 @ 01:53
      John L. - Mr. Van Metre and I agree on the tightening of credit by the banks. We disagree on why the bank management is tightening. In a former presentation Mr. Van Metre stated his position that the banks want to tighten credit to crash the market purposely – August 24, 2020 “The Banks Are Going To crash the Stock Market.” It is my position that the tightening of credit results from good bank management before a recession/depression/insolvency crisis. DLS
  • KR
    Kevin R.
    10 October 2020 @ 19:21
    Great explanation of Raoul's macro plays and time lines Steve. I am using short stocks and ETF's, because that is the only play I see given that a stock market crash is due at some point. After the Crash I will be investing in Gold and silver. I also like solid high paying dividend funds, but will wait until the smoke clears, because I have read that 7 out of 10 companies won’t survive the insolvency crisis. Keep up the good work.
  • ig
    ian g.
    10 October 2020 @ 07:56
    Steven ! Very illuminating !! More of this please ....
  • SS
    Sunny S.
    9 October 2020 @ 02:36
    Good, clear review.
  • MP
    Mark P.
    8 October 2020 @ 14:41
    A very good review and clarification. Also appreciate Steve putting in his two cents as well. I like it.
  • DG
    David G.
    8 October 2020 @ 12:04
    Yes please, More of this!!!!! You guys have that Jeff Bezos, obsess over the customer experience thing going on here. I like it.
  • RK
    Ron K.
    8 October 2020 @ 00:12
    He is a very likable and informative person. This is a nice idea.
  • EK
    Eduard K.
    7 October 2020 @ 19:10
    I dont see the point he makes when he says in contraction periods yields go down! It should be the other way around,no!? Yields go up in contraction period??
    • JT
      John T.
      7 October 2020 @ 22:21
      Think of credit as multiple separate markets. Yields go down in assets viewed as safe and liquid, like treasuries because banks are chasing those rather than lending. Yields on things like credit cards or small business loans don't follow the fed rates lower - these loans just become harder to get as banks worry more about credit risk. Asset-backed is a bit different as car manufacturers rely on these to sell cars - so Ford can sell junk bonds to finance them. Mortgages divide into those with or without government backing, where government backed can behave like treasuries and the Federal Reserve can hold them. In general though, high quality liquid bonds are bid up as credit standards tighten. That's why many use the spread between JNK and LQD as a bit of a tell - and why the Fed made such an effort to jawbone support for the junk bond market.
  • JT
    John T.
    7 October 2020 @ 21:45
    Good description and strategy. I'm a small-time retail trader investing my own savings plus the little I've been allowed to put in an IRA & Roth (I work for a small business, so no 401k options available). Needless to say, my strategy is a bit different, though I agree with you and Raul both on the unfolding thesis. I'm basically sitting on shares of the largest gold miners & some SLV, timing things by adjusting when I sell covered calls & whether they are OTM or ITM. As for Bitcoin- I'm recently in, but I'm nibbling as I wait for a dollar rally which I expect within the next few weeks. That allocation will be significantly smaller though (I'll get up to 10%) as I plan to let it ride for a couple years and I can't do that if it's too big an allocation. I'm still sitting on some long duration puts so that I can fully invest yet have some liquidity to play with if a march type event triggers again. Also, I keep part of the portfolio for trades on the side, like buying a bunch of CWH when the OTM covered calls were giving 12% premiums. It's fun to strategize these things.
  • JS
    Justin S.
    7 October 2020 @ 20:52
    I enjoyed this, and it is a great idea, similar to something I was going to suggest. It would also be good to add details on how some trading instruments work for the novices. ie what are futures, derivatives why do people buy bonds, or sell them etc. It doesn't need to be in depth, just a starter, so when people are discussing it you understand the mechanics of it all.
  • TW
    Tom W.
    7 October 2020 @ 20:31
    ups, no edit function, of course i meant "SteveN". ;)
  • TW
    Tom W.
    7 October 2020 @ 20:29
    Thank you Steve, love this new content and idea behind it. Very appreciated and well done ! It really helps to break down some of the topics and try to explain it in a more clear&simple way.
  • EK
    Eduard K.
    7 October 2020 @ 19:09
  • NL
    Niko L.
    7 October 2020 @ 16:01
    I enjoy the way Steven breaks down Raoul's narrative. Explaining the little nuances as he digs deeper into the content. Makes it easy for us to understand what we missed between the lines. I absolutely love this series idea.
  • DF
    David F.
    7 October 2020 @ 10:48
    Thank you for this new function. As an investor and RV member from the start I have had to fill in the gaps of each new investment strategy from day one, and this has been very difficult at times. Eurodollar was one area I was completely in the dark about, but managed to follow Raoul's lead. Never at the same price, however, because it took me days to understand what was involved. But I did it and when March 2020 came round was more than ready to strike. Steve's participation now means that even though we will still be doing stuff for the first time, more pieces of the puzzle will be put in place. Exciting development Raoul. Thanks.
  • HN
    Hassan N.
    7 October 2020 @ 05:24
    Exciting to see Steve contribute on RV!
  • CD
    Chris D.
    7 October 2020 @ 03:23
    I really enjoyed this video, it's great to show people where they can for themselves find the data, as so much of it is free and publicly available MacroMetre FTW!
  • MB
    Matthew B.
    6 October 2020 @ 23:33
    Hi Steven, Why is it that the data is presented differently for "Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices" for September? Can we see this data graphed so that we have the most a up-to-date view of the latest data not a view that is 3 months old? eg. have the alarming points of the graph you talk about gotten better or worse in the last few months? Cheers
    • CD
      Chris D.
      7 October 2020 @ 03:22
      They released an intermediate report that is focused on the various COVID lending programs, I ASSUME (but don't know) the usual quarterly release will be released in early Nov (labeled as 'October')
  • RA
    Robert A.
    5 October 2020 @ 23:51
    I love the concept and am a big Steven fan after watching his first RV Video (although there were a LOT of negative comments which I suggest should be read—I personally didn’t agree with them, but they should be read for context, IMO) I think he is the perfect guy to start this concept off. The intro was helpful because I didn’t know it would be on the Exchange! As for a substantive comment....although Steven’s explanations and breakdowns were excellent length, pithy and clear a “danger” for everyone lurked just behind his presentation. I will try to explain and don’t really have a solution, but think the “danger” should be pointed out. I am a Macro Insider and accordingly listen to and read all of BOTH Raoul and Julian’s points of views and trades. I already have/had some of their trades on from my own work and from following other sources and have put real $ to work on SOME of their trades (with my own variance as to trade instruments, etc). It has been hard to choose WHICH trades to put on as there is such a disagreement/variance in their outlook (Julian is more med term tactical and Raoul is longer term). From Steven’s first interview I know that he has embraced many of Raoul’s themes and positions as his work agrees with a lot of it. But, here’s the rub—Julian has a Short TLT trade on right now and several other trades with HIS Current “reflation” opinion that Raoul does NOT have on as Raoul thinks deflation first and THEN deflation. Examples are Julian’s XME, DBA and EWW along with short DXY (Raoul is still long DXY, although he was ‘squeeling’ a bit a couple of weeks ago). someone viewing this who is a Raoul fan (and who isn’t?—I’ve been with RV almost since inception because of Grant and Raoul and certainly count me in as a Raoul fan for sure) and hasn’t been following Julian’s well thought out, well reasoned and well articulated viewpoints....well they might head off in Raoul’s direction without considering Julian’s version of things. I’m having a devil of a time picking off their dual trade menus adjusted for my own thinking—since they diverge so much I just can’t go one way or the other (luckily they do agree on some trades so they are easier for me to go with). I guess the point is that if we make an assumption that Raoul and Julian are equally gifted it is dangerous to take action and put $ to work when only hearing one of their views that Steven is doing his excellent drill down on. As I said I don’t really have a solution because If Steven were to drill down/explain BOTH Raoul and Julian’s outlook in the same video it would probably be much too long and confusing! My caveat is not to go to whole hog or get too carried away action wise on this until....wait for it.....Steven has given you a drill down on Julian’s outlook and thesis. Food for thought Milton, Steven and our excellent RV curators.
    • RA
      Robert A.
      7 October 2020 @ 02:48
      Very sorry everyone, bad typo on my part....Raoul is first deflation and then REFLATION—not deflation then deflation.
  • SM
    Sean M.
    7 October 2020 @ 01:40
    I download the audio and listen in the car and liked the breakdown.
  • JS
    Jon S.
    6 October 2020 @ 20:21
    This is good for those who need some background info over what RV explains. For the ones who understand it is a good reminder. Great idea!
  • cv
    carlo v.
    6 October 2020 @ 19:01
    that's the way to explain clear and to learn! more contents like this one!
  • MB
    Matthew B.
    6 October 2020 @ 18:49
    Great break down, thx. Could really use links added to the video blurb for the data sources you ran through. Thx again.
  • SG
    Sashi G.
    6 October 2020 @ 08:25
    The recent thrust by RV towards education is fine and needed. But please make sure that what you target towards "basic education" is CLEARLY segmented/categorized away from the "main stream (or should I say, traditional)" RV content. Makes it easier for people to find - and for people to skip over - depending on their preference. It also looks like the Exchange is going to be where more and more things are "kept"? This concept is fine and is needed for the newbies to investing - but it is too basic for me. Maybe some other segments will be more to my need; I will wait and see. Steven's style of communicating is very suited for this. I learned a lot from his session with Brent Johnson about the banks will break the markets. I did however find the structure of this format a bit disjointed - jumping from one thing to the next and sort of no clear indication of a shift from one part to the next - goes through quite quickly.
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      6 October 2020 @ 18:26
      I'm still finding it harder to synthesize or more quickly summarize why "the banks will break or crash the markets" ... can you help? Thanks.
  • VT
    Vincent T.
    6 October 2020 @ 18:24
    This is so what I needed.... someone to explain the relationships of the various components. Thank you!
  • MM
    Mark M.
    6 October 2020 @ 17:51
    Whats the best book on the Brenton woods conference in the 40s - where the world cam up with the debt based monetary system we currently have?
  • LA
    Linda A.
    6 October 2020 @ 17:40
    Thank u Steven- this is just what I need - clear & simple. I believe that the Feds are going to back the bond mkt over the stock mkt.
  • MD
    Matt D.
    6 October 2020 @ 15:28
    I think these breakdowns for the more complex and important topics are a great idea. The biggest takeaway for me is seeing the additional supporting data and it would be great to continue providing additional supporting data for every video and include links to them in the description. I look forward to more.
  • SB
    Stewart B.
    6 October 2020 @ 13:14
    It's worth noting that an insolvent company can skirt insolvency by issuing more equity. In today's markets that may be easier than we think.
  • MO
    Megan O.
    5 October 2020 @ 19:26
    Enjoyed this video and think it is a great complement to the other real vision videos and discussion. Really helped with my understanding.
    • CJ
      Christopher J.
      6 October 2020 @ 13:00
      Agreed - very nice - not too long - simple explanations - excellent
  • NC
    Nicky C.
    6 October 2020 @ 03:50
    Although banks have tightened their lending standards, lending is still happening as seen by the jumps in new home sales and housing permits. I'm guessing this is more evidence of the K-shaped recovery where city dwellers that have more wealth (a guess) are actually able to take on house loans even with stricter lending standards (higher quality loan portfolios). In light of these diverging data: 1) How would this affect Raoul's insolvency thesis 2) Where can we find data for consumer borrowings (something similar to housing permits approved) for further analysis?
    • NC
      Nicky C.
      6 October 2020 @ 03:53
      Some clarifications *City dwellers who moved out of cities and bought new homes *Higher quality loan portfolios but lower income/higher loss provisions
    • JW
      Jim W.
      6 October 2020 @ 12:20
      My read on this was that private lenders were not lending, but Fannie Mae et al continues to be active...
  • JW
    Jim W.
    6 October 2020 @ 10:41
    I'm a much longer term RV subscriber, and so when it comes to understanding RP's speaking, I've had practice--which means I am perhaps not the target for this video, but since good old Milton asked me to comment I will. At a high level, I think these sort of videos are good, though I'd like to have an indicator of level of difficulty on them. Valuable points: 1-It's a good blow by blow on Raoul's three stage approach of liquidation, hope, insolvency 2-Great references to commercial real estate, senior loan officer survey, etc. 3-Good explanation of BBB equities. Something I'm not sure about/clear on: 1-Dollar shortage was why the market went down? I viewed it more as "sell whatever you can". The swap lines were put in place to help ameliorate international shortages, but I didn't think the dollar shortage drove the move down--it was pricing in Covid having a material effect on the economy, IMO, but YMMV. The way I would have liked it: 1-A summary of the entire unfolding something like this: Raoul has put in a three stage macro thesis for how the economy will look over a multi-year time horizon: liquidation, hope and then insolvency. The first phase, the liquidation, finished up at the end of March, when everyone sold what they could to get liquidity for the future. We have been in the second phase, the "hope" phase, since then, where essentially most are convinced that the worst is over, while ignoring signals like rising corporate bankruptcies. Phase 3, insolvency, is slowly sneaking up on us--we've seen a number of things that can be warning signals. To use some illustrations, who are the people most concerned with borrowers going bankrupt? The lender, which is generally a bank of some sort. So let's look at a couple of bank cases: 1-Commercial real estate: These loans are in retreat. Show chart 2-Commercial loan officers: haven't done a deep dive on this, but looks like it is down too. Show chart. 3-[I'm going to skip government mortgages for the moment, as I couldn't catch that in the transcript.] Now, let's have a look at BBB equities. BBB is the worst of what us pros call "Non-junk" credit. [this was good in the original btw] It's pretty clear that these weak borrowers are not who banks want to lend to--it's like lending to someone who just lost their job and doesn't own their own house. While RP doesn't think the big ones will be downgraded to junk due to the systematic impacts, their stock prices are going to get hammered and I [SVM] think their credit will be downgraded..... Anyway, you get the idea. Explain simply Raoul's thesis (I didn't think that got done this time at the beginning), and I am not certain if some of the comments (e.g., cause of liquidation being a dollar shortage, BBB getting downgraded) were consistent with RP's thesis. It's most of the way there, and useful to those who are starting out.
  • JJ
    Jay J.
    6 October 2020 @ 10:00
    Steve does a great job and is a great addition to the RV team, really looking forward to hearing more from him.
  • HB
    Harijs B.
    6 October 2020 @ 06:49
    It's great to have this kind of explanation, often I wonder what is it that you guys refer to when you say you learned a lot from suchand such interview.. I can't seem to pick up the finer details of every argument. I myself am a portfolio manager, but my knowledge scope and resources are quite limited, so for example in this video the best part was to see, where to look for the data as was shown screenshots of the FRED database. Looking forward to the next on! PS. If I may offer a suggestion, I would like to have a say which interview would be most beneficial for me to be disected by Steven... so perhaps some kind of voting format could be introduced, where each member can vote, but only ONCE (logically, this should be done after all the interviews have been aired), so one has to really think which was the most criptic and thus would benefit one the most if explained.
  • SD
    Shayne D.
    5 October 2020 @ 23:13
    I've never owned a bond but it seems like something the pros use and use very well to make great returns. So where does a retail investor go to buy bonds? Is there a minimum investment? And if you want to invest in emerging market bonds when the dollar turns how do you do it?
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      5 October 2020 @ 23:40
      Bond ETFs...
    • MP
      Matthew P.
      6 October 2020 @ 01:19
      YES! As someone who does not work in finance THIS HELPS. I am on the ground floor of learning. Pre 'festival' levels. I think these likely are beginner centric but intermediates could benefit too. As a beginner myself and joined to learn more about bonds(outside RV Raoul interview, TLT) i would love this breakdown to go deeper there. As Shayne D. mentions i have much curiosity in how bonds are used as a tool. I am lost there. Interesting here and hedging with bonds mentioned on David Rosenberg I.I. interview. Love to understand that more. But bonds may be in for the worst crash ever...
    • JA
      Joseph A.
      6 October 2020 @ 02:20
      Check out ETF's like $ZROZ or $TLT for exposure to Bonds. There are also several bond funds that you should be able to find in your 401(k) like Templeton/ VanGuard Bond funds.
    • NI
      Nate I.
      6 October 2020 @ 05:20
      TLT, IEF, SHY - long term, intermediate term, short term government bonds. Everything you need in three ETFs to own the entire government bond market. There is money to be made in bonds in this depression, but you have a very high probability of doubling your money in gold by 2030 and gold allows you to sleep soundly at night. I don't see getting 2x on bonds. Buy gold on a decent dip just like Steve says or dollar cost average in. Bitcoin is gold with rocket fuel, but far more risky. A smaller allocation to bitcoin is prudent unless you're very young, looking to hit a monster home run and you aren't concerned about losses. The US gov could make crypto illegal or they could make the regulatory burden so onerous and the penalties for non-compliance so draconian that running an exchange wouldn't be worth the risk. Some countries have. Never underestimate the "land of the free" to protect their fiat money monopoly. Keep that in mind. They could do the same with gold, but they probably won't because the people who make the rules own gold. Good luck.
  • DR
    Diana R.
    6 October 2020 @ 04:44
    Really enjoyed this video as a newbie to the investment world. I certainly have the appetite to learn, but currently only have the basics, but with extra time and diligence I can find the additional information to complete the picture - bit like a jigsaw. I have the pieces around the edges, but now need to find the important bits in the middle. Steve is helping to clarify any confusion, particularly with his explanations of where to find evidence of statements and supporting data etc. and I very much look forward to next weeks session.
  • IW
    Ian W.
    5 October 2020 @ 23:18
    Great concept, guys! If we are going to move these to The Exchange though (what's the point of that? I don't get it; you could make official threads with a video player for EVERYTHING), you have to integrate it into the mobile app. I often watch RV on the go, and I'd eat my data plan in a day without the ability to download for offline playback ;)
    • IW
      Ian W.
      6 October 2020 @ 02:47
      Also, BIG thanks to Steve for digging into the actual data sources for statements like "the repo market is in trouble." This was my favorite part of the video. And of course his knack for explaining things clearly and simply is second to none.
  • AY
    Andrey Y.
    6 October 2020 @ 01:49
    Awesome! It would be great if there would be a few minutes of a primer on the bonds as well. As a novice I’am struggling to understand how on earth you buy bonds and how do you see their prices etc. just very basics of the bond trading.
  • MP
    Matthew P.
    6 October 2020 @ 01:19
    YES! As someone who does not work in finance THIS HELPS. I am on the ground floor of learning. Pre 'festival' levels. I think these likely are beginner centric but intermediates could benefit too. As a beginner myself and joined to learn more about bonds(outside RV Raoul interview, TLT) i would love this breakdown to go deeper there. As Shayne D. mentions i have much curiosity in how bonds are used as a tool. I am lost there. Interesting here and hedging with bonds mentioned on David Rosenberg I.I. interview. Love to understand that more. But bonds may be in for the worst crash ever...
    • MP
      Matthew P.
      6 October 2020 @ 01:24
      Just heard George say we can ask questions to the vids where Steve will answer. Ok that KOOL!
  • SN
    Sreekumar N.
    6 October 2020 @ 01:00
    This is absolutely amazing! Much needed break up of things for common investors to understand what the experts think. Keep it up guys! This is getting better and better!
  • KF
    Kim F.
    6 October 2020 @ 00:33
    You guys and gals just keep pushing the bar up for REAL VISION. Great job!!
  • VN
    Vitali N.
    6 October 2020 @ 00:32
    It was helpful. I thought i understood Raoul's points the first time around. But A) he gets worked up and B) i get carried away by my own tangents, so it was actually on my to-do list to go back and create a personal transcript/summary. This was a lot better and faster. Brought into focus a couple of things I missed the first time and could have missed 2nd time around, like the bond vs gold vs. bitcoin mismatch on timeframes, which might be beneficial if the scenario with Raoul's concerns play out.
  • AW
    Angela W.
    6 October 2020 @ 00:18
    Steven explains things very simply. Great to hear he will be doing these breakdown videos on an ongoing basis. Would like to request they appear on the RV App as well as in the exchange please.
  • AP
    Adam P.
    6 October 2020 @ 00:18
    Great stuff, Steve! I like this format. I liked in particular when you took a moment to point out where the audience can find some of the data.
  • SA
    Sean A.
    6 October 2020 @ 00:17
    Big fan of Steven. Really glad to hear RV joined up with him to help explain these concepts. Steven's interview with Brent Johnson was a classic!!
  • BG
    Brian G.
    6 October 2020 @ 00:12
    Well done Steve. He does an excellent job explaining financial terms for individuals that aren't in the financial industry.
  • EP
    Emma P.
    6 October 2020 @ 00:00
    Great concept. Enhances your understanding of the topics. I may be useful for Steven to do a video on Julian's views/ video. Julian has different views to Raoul.
  • CA
    Chris A.
    4 October 2020 @ 16:27
    Steven, I love your promise about bonds but would you be more clear about which type of bond you’re referring to. In an insolvency phase. I would expect corporate bonds to be very risky due to defaults. Muni bonds might be better. Would you clarify?
    • RA
      Robert A.
      5 October 2020 @ 23:57
      Hope you know that the other Macro Insider (Julian) is currently Short the TLT. Just be careful...I have no opion as to which MI guy will be right, only that currently their positions are juxtaposed.
  • PT
    Pradeep T.
    5 October 2020 @ 23:55
    I enjoy Steve's approach of explaining complex topics to non-finance folks. It would be great if Steve and RealVision can share a list of fed database charts and indicators that help us understand what is going on. Steve has shown a great chart that illustrates how the repurchase agreement assets have exploded early this year. I have seen similar charts in his youtube videos. A simple list of fed database charts and their implication can really help us in understanding these concepts better; I can construct similar charts using Fed data for my personal reference. Thanks.
  • DW
    Denny W.
    5 October 2020 @ 23:20
    Steve concisely and clearly explains complex (for someone who does not work in finance) topics such as the repo market and provides sources for further study. This reminded me of a Russell Clark interview in which he provided several important and free sources such as the BP yearly oil report. Steve does the same with the Fed information. This weekly format is an excellent addition to the RV goal of providing access to the best thinkers in finance. Being inclusive and reaching out to a broader audience is where RV excels.
  • jb
    jp b.
    5 October 2020 @ 23:04
    we need someone to explain Raoul's words??
  • CV
    Collin V.
    5 October 2020 @ 22:53
    LOVE this! Helps connect the dots. Thanks Steven.
  • MO
    Michael O.
    5 October 2020 @ 22:26
    Great concept - A great way to see if the opinion I form when watching a given video matches up with Steve's and also how he goes about dissecting it, can only benefit me further.
  • BR
    Brian R.
    5 October 2020 @ 21:58
    Great idea! Steve breaks it down into easier to understand concepts for new users for sure. Sometimes some of the more technical videos definitely fly over my head when acronyms and unfamiliar terms are used.
  • FA
    Fabrizio A.
    5 October 2020 @ 21:49
    Great break-down Bond King! Can't wait for you to do this on the content from experts like dr. Lacy Hunt, Jeff Snider and George Goncalves.. Really happy to see you here , for you and for me :)
  • JW
    Jason W.
    5 October 2020 @ 21:30
    Excellent work! Very informative and great content for novice and experienced traders to gain a better understanding of macro concepts. Nicely done RealVision!
  • MD
    Michael D.
    5 October 2020 @ 21:16
    I think that a lot of people are going to get a lot of benefit from Steven's work. Great idea!
  • RL
    Remmelt L.
    5 October 2020 @ 20:53
    Very nice to put this content in the weekend
  • ML
    Michael L.
    5 October 2020 @ 20:31
    OMG this was so good. Thank you Steven for adding another layer or perspective to Raoul's thesis.
  • AC
    Andrew C.
    5 October 2020 @ 20:28
    This is a great idea on several fronts. I can get lost on certain really, really down in the weeds derivatives subjects, and it will be great to have a clarifying, concise summary of those. But, to also help me to hear some ideas on how to communicate some of this material that I take for granted as easy to understand can be very helpful in my client communications. Thank you Steve and Real Vision team for doing this for us!
  • FF
    Filip F.
    5 October 2020 @ 20:25
    Like this format a lot
  • KE
    Kathryn E.
    5 October 2020 @ 20:07
    Great video guys
  • DT
    Douglas T.
    5 October 2020 @ 20:03
    This is really helpful. Great addition! Thanks
  • MS
    Mark S.
    5 October 2020 @ 19:44
    This is a really good type of format. Having a monologue with someone who has their own view, and explains the difference between their view and someone else's, in this case Raoul's.
  • DL
    Darren L.
    5 October 2020 @ 18:52
    Martin Armstrong says the ECB has already decided in closed meetings to convert all debt to perpetual bonds. He says they need higher rates in order to attract bond buyers and to save pensions plans, but raising rates would create insolvency risk so their solution is to convert to perpetual bonds and then raise rates.
  • SV
    Steven V.
    5 October 2020 @ 18:48
    Been following both Steve and Raoul for a while. Steve points me to relevant Fed Charts--the Wednesday Repo Chart, for instance, is new to me--and helps me to understandand Bonds. Raoul intelligently reinforces my own investing thesis--ie, I've been long Crypto and Gold (with lots of cash on the sidelines) since before COVID and GFC2 even though the narrative is for inflation by Turkey Day, USD to 0.65 by Christmas, Gold to $20K and the world returning to Gold Standard by Q2 2021. More than anything, you learn there are many, many parts to portfolio management that do not include opinion or emotion. The information and data are there. It's our money and behooves us all to understand how, why, and when, with some degree of certainty though not exactly, these parts move.
  • jP
    jean-charles P.
    5 October 2020 @ 18:44
    Keep bringing these highlights of advanced investors because to me it helps to refocus on the real meat beyond all the noises. By the way, it is great to see all these new things created here all the time.
  • BP
    Bradley P.
    5 October 2020 @ 18:38
    Steven does a great job explaining things. Please include chart links in the notes section.
  • LC
    Lee C.
    5 October 2020 @ 18:28
    I would like to see some files included in something like an Evernote format. Steve was clearly working off a list or outline so a file of his outline might be useful and in an Evernote format the video adjoining documents and user notes can all be combined and achieved
  • gj
    gail j.
    5 October 2020 @ 18:21
    It is a useful addition. Steven has always been an excellent 'splainer'. It takes more ability and knowledge to make new or complex subjects simple than to obfuscate with jargon.
  • JA
    John A.
    5 October 2020 @ 18:13
    If credit is tightening, does it matter what interest rates do as far as the bigger picture goes? They could go to negative, but if banks don't lend then credit is still in contraction. We are near the zero bound, and the Fed is obviously dead set on fighting deflation right now. I think the risk of bonds being sold in a liquidity crunch this time needs to be taken into account. When everything hit the fan in March, TLT dropped to ~140 before the Fed came in to support the Treasury curve and keep the long end from bear steepening and making the market crash worse. It feels to me that long TLT this time is a breakeven trade at best. And at worse, what if the Fed is left with the choice between an accelerated breakdown in the dollar vs holding the entire yield curve in place in perpetuity? It is possible the only way out of this liquidity trap is to let the long end of the curve go and deal with the fallout after. If they just hold position here, the banks die a slow death and growth does nothing. The insolvency clock is ticking, and when that bubble bursts the Fed will have run out of time to figure out what it is going to do absent help from Congress. It feels like to me they are going to have to focus on holding down short-term rates so that Congress can spend out of this mess, but if they don't let long-term rates rise they will lose the USD to another leg down which will stoke fears of capital flight. Forget who said it (Julian I think) but the only reason to hold USD right now is the Nasdaq. If he is right, I think we will find out during the next market event. But what do I know, I'm just an IT guy =).
  • TS
    Tom S.
    5 October 2020 @ 18:07
    Great Concept. Kudos to Steven - The Bond King - Van Metre -- an excellent choice with his straight forward (dare I say "folksy") approach sorting out details that are easily missed and/or glossed over.
  • PG
    Philippe G.
    5 October 2020 @ 17:58
    Great stuff - I get that more beginner-friendly content doesn't cater to all, but still nice to get another perspective and alternative way of explaining, especially for more broader topics (i.e. market cycles, macro, etc...).
  • AS
    Arjan S.
    5 October 2020 @ 17:48
    I think this is a great concept. I like that Steve took the time to explain some of the broader and more basic concepts of the thesis. It helps set up a foundational framework to help understand Raoul’s framework. It will really help macro/real vision newbies understand the mindset that these presentations presume. I also don’t mind him offering his opinions/critiques of the thesis. It’s a great way of pointing out that while people might agree on the central thesis or series of events in the Unfolding, they might have different opinions on how to trade those events in a way that suits their access and dispositions.
  • MJ
    Marshall J.
    5 October 2020 @ 17:42
    Really enjoyed Steve breaking down where to find the data and what exactly it represented in his own words. There is so much information/terminology to learn for macro that it is very helpful getting spoonfed from time to time. Loved it and will watch from now on! Thx Steve, Raoul, and RV
  • JC
    Justin C.
    5 October 2020 @ 17:42
    Love this idea. I especially liked being shown where to find the information for myself. Not knowing where/what to look for is probably one of the biggest issues for people who don't have a financial background. I see this being highly valuable as time goes on and we have more and more breakdowns on varying topics and varying levels of complexity
  • SD
    Sam D.
    5 October 2020 @ 17:34
    Thank you. I just want to echo the positive feedback given previously. Would also love to hear Lyn Alden do something similar on RV. Great job to Steve and RV!
  • BG
    Benjamin G.
    5 October 2020 @ 17:12
    Great concept. I think this will evolve with demand, but I like the starting point.
  • KS
    Kyle S.
    5 October 2020 @ 17:07
    I enjoyed it. I think Raoul did a good job of explaining it the first time but what's the harm in having someone like Steve distill it in his own words. I like Macro content so there's no reason why I would complain.
  • JR
    Jason R.
    5 October 2020 @ 17:01
    This was...meh. I really like Steve and get a ton of value from his views. However, for myself, explaining something presented by Raoul that I've already watched doesn't add much value. I may skim some of these in future, but doubt I'll watch them fully and in anything less that 2X replay speed.
  • KM
    Kelly M.
    5 October 2020 @ 16:59
    This was good. I really like the idea of "here is where the data is and this is what it means." This could even go into some of the ETFs out there to understand this is what the real risk is. That said...What I want to see is the discussion between Raoul's point of view and Julian's. There are commonalities but we fundamentally get into the dollar direction and inflation and deflation. Are these the mutually exclusive? Are they a matter of sequencing? Or...what? For example. Raoul has floated the two trillion in off shore dollar denominated debt that is chasing dollars. Julian floated $22 trillion in foreign money in US markets. Seems that if the latter were to start being sold the former would be easily covered. So does that speak to sequencing tying these two theses together or if one arises first will the other be negated? There are what-if's galore embedded in addressing this. i personally think exploring those would make for a fascinating discussion. That is take it to the next level and lay out the sequence of events that leads to one or the other or both. Maybe that will yield some metrics we can all monitor.
  • RC
    Richard C.
    5 October 2020 @ 16:57
    Great addition and I personally love this as an average investor. Many macro concepts are relatively new to me (and i'm sure many others) so this kind thorough breakdown helps educate us better. Steven is a great teacher and I enjoy his method of teaching. I can see why this might be too basic for those the understand much of what Raoul is saying. However, this is invaluable to help grow the new to intermediate investors who never had exposure to this kind of education.
  • JL
    Jason L.
    5 October 2020 @ 16:50
    Extremely useful. This is the kind of learning content I've been starved for. RV has tons of great content that is often dense when you don't understand the terminology. Unpacking helps tremendously. Thanks Steve!
  • BM
    Brook M.
    5 October 2020 @ 16:44
    I really like the concept here. Having someone like Steven break down a previously aired video is helpful as it both clarifies the message and adds to the presented view. Steven is a very good communicator and you can tell he is comfortable in front of a camera. I think this will be very helpful to people like me (non-professional investors).
  • jG
    james G.
    5 October 2020 @ 16:34
    yes. Very helpful thanks
  • jc
    james c.
    5 October 2020 @ 16:19
    This is the perfect addition to real vision, way more efficient with my time then watching videos and pausing and researching (this will cut down on that). I've learned so much from Real Visions Guests and staff these last few months, however I get behind on content, this is a huge Tool for the average investor! STEVEN do more than one video a week!
  • GW
    Greg W.
    5 October 2020 @ 16:11
    Enjoyed the video. Suggested improvements would mirror Sebastian C. comments (10/4 at 11:41). Obviously a wish list but thoughtful. Thanks again.
  • DS
    David S.
    5 October 2020 @ 16:04
    This is mildly useful for me as I understood 95% of what Raoul said...when he said it. Maybe a rehash/breakdown of the more complex topics in the future would be of more use.
  • JA
    Javaid A.
    5 October 2020 @ 15:58
    i really love Steve's neutral but ongoing look at 'numbers' and that is so so useful. He does'nt overdo his thesis and lets the numbers do the talking. He is a gem.
  • MP
    Michel P.
    5 October 2020 @ 15:51
    Loved the video about the dollar, loved this one two. I guess you've got one more fan Mr Van Metre
  • SC
    Sebastian C.
    5 October 2020 @ 15:41
    Awesome stuff - here is my take on the first video: 1. CC option - Every video published must have CC option - hearing the person speak and read helps understand the information. 2. Picture - RV please help Steve with presenting charts. 3. Pictures - People really remember information when they associate concepts with picture - for example, musical chairs explanation should have a simple musical chairs picture. If there is a LIQUIDATION/HOPE/SOLVENCY phase, please show a picture or visual 4. Links - Every chart that was presented should have a link/url that I can click onsee 5. When using information to share on this platform - please only share charts which you can access without having to pay. 6. CHARTS - If RealVision were to ever create a chart/ graph system that would be AWESOME. 7. Small clips - Clips from the ORIGINAL VIDEO may be be also very useful Otherwise good luck - I can't wait for the next one
  • SF
    Simon F.
    5 October 2020 @ 15:38
    Really good.
  • RK
    Rafal K.
    5 October 2020 @ 15:34
    I love charts, lets show those. I actually recommend having a real vision portfolio, with allocations to ETFs that correspond to the underlying real vision theme - I think a lot of people would pay for that suggested guidance.
  • AT
    ALAN T.
    5 October 2020 @ 15:23
    Thanks Steve, To the point and clear. Excellent.
  • MR
    Mitchell R.
    5 October 2020 @ 15:13
    Thanks for simplifying some complex topics! Question: If QE doesn't add liquidity why does the market take off like a scalded cat every time the Fed announces intervention/easing?
  • jw
    jarkko w.
    5 October 2020 @ 15:01
    This new series is very needed and Steven is obviously very good explaining things in plain english ! Excellent !
  • gc
    guillaume c.
    4 October 2020 @ 23:36
    I don't really get this bond trade. With the 30yrs already down at 1.44% what is the upside gain left?
    • np
      nick p.
      5 October 2020 @ 00:14
      RP and SVM have both mentioned potential to go to 0 across the curve, starting short and moving to the long end. Checkout some of the Lucy Hunt pieces for a little more context around this thesis.
    • SS
      Sam S.
      5 October 2020 @ 02:24
      Suppose the 30 year yield goes to 20-40 bps. Quick back-of-the-napkin math suggests any of the bond ETFs with 24-26yr effective duration has some 25%-30% upside, from the current yield of 140-160 bps. Plus however much convexity ends up occurring. It is by no means the highest yielding trade at this point. But if Steve (or anyone who following his thesis) believes the process will occur within say, 1 year with a very high probability outcome.... 25-35% upside (plus however much leverage one might stack on with margin and/or options) in 1 year is still miles ahead of what the broader market would be yielding in a crash.
    • AM
      Alonso M.
      5 October 2020 @ 14:52
      Last one in is a rotten egg. Until then, party on.
  • GF
    Gaye F.
    5 October 2020 @ 14:38
    This is a good idea. It's needed.
  • AT
    Alun T.
    5 October 2020 @ 14:36
    I follow Steven on YouTube and he's great there. Loved this. More of the same please. Some repetition and clarification of difficult points, for those who are not so savvy is always useful and welcome.
  • LD
    Lance D.
    5 October 2020 @ 14:25
    I like it- and the bloke has the right amount of animation in his voice, to me that is important. so far so good data points are good defo keep that coming
  • VD
    Violeta D.
    5 October 2020 @ 14:23
    Thank you, Steven. I really like how clearly you explain your views. Is there anything that could happen in the next month or so that will change your bullish conviction on bonds? Also, what is the timeframe of your views?
  • RY
    Roger Y.
    5 October 2020 @ 13:58
    Well done Steve. Looking forward to future episodes. The charts are good visual illustrations of the specific facts and possible future trends.
  • BD
    Blake D.
    5 October 2020 @ 13:45
    Mr. Rogers of Finance, I'm a big Steve fan.
  • DR
    De R.
    5 October 2020 @ 13:19
    Great format, please breakdown Julian's view too!
  • MJ
    Marius J.
    5 October 2020 @ 13:11
    Thanks! Looking forward to new comments!
  • ND
    Nitul D.
    5 October 2020 @ 13:11
    1. For an amateur, terminology is important and macro world is full of jargon. A 30 sec explanation of key terminology may be useful (viewers can of course supplement their knowledge via internet later) - for e.g. liquidation, insolvency, yields/prices relationship, equity beta, implied volatility, eurodollars, risk premium, inflation break-evens, inflation vs. expectations, GC repo, credit spreads, yield curve 2/10s, 5/30s etc. 2. It might also be useful to point viewers to publicly available macro data (which Steven actually did) and charts to look at in detail at their own convenience. But explicitly mentioning the data source/chart in the video will definitely be useful. 3. What ultimately a viewer might also be interested is how can watching this video help him or her? For e.g. can he or she get something concrete out of any RealVision video (other than knowledge) in financial terms that matter to him or her. (at the least protect his or her wealth) Throwing some ideas in the black
  • EO
    Erk O.
    5 October 2020 @ 13:01
    this is very helpful! Thanks Realvision
  • gm
    gianluca m.
    5 October 2020 @ 12:51
    Real Vision offers a very realistic market view. Steven's exposition is clear. Definitely a great guide for macro investors.
  • DR
    David R.
    5 October 2020 @ 12:46
    I liked it. It often happens that I want to re-listen to a video because I know I did not understand everything but there is so much new content that appeared that I finally never do it. This kind of video is a very interesting complement since it recaps the original video and adds more examples and tools and other words are used. Yes I like it!
  • QS
    Quenton S.
    5 October 2020 @ 12:41
    Great video! I'm watch Steven's YouTube content and you guys made a great decision bringing him on!
  • ER
    Ernesto R.
    5 October 2020 @ 12:39
    Excellent explanation I understand now that one of the key factors here will be checking the BBB companies if they fell to Junk if that happen how fast the insolvency phase occurs or it is just an accelerator regarding the Bonds which is more likely to be up in the short term the 10 years bond Cash is king I guess in the future
  • JC
    Jonathan C.
    4 October 2020 @ 20:24
    Loved this format. For Investment noobs like myself a short summary explaining content in a concise understandable manner adds real value.
    • EA
      Esqandar A.
      5 October 2020 @ 12:11
  • MF
    Michael F.
    5 October 2020 @ 12:08
    Very helpful. Good addition to the content.
  • JE
    J E.
    5 October 2020 @ 11:58
    Very exciting development, congrats! I know others on RV will enjoy you as much as we OGs have on your YouTube channel. Looking forward to it!
  • SM
    Sam M.
    5 October 2020 @ 11:32
    First post at about 6 minutes ... might not be my last as this dude provides a lot of material to post about from my previous experience. There is a reason that the repo market experiences spikes and it is called the futures v physical arbitrage. It has 0% to do with USD. And it (can) happen every mar/jun/sep/dec at futures expiry. If bonds are over-issued they will be cheap and banks will buy them and sell futures to hedge. But they have to physically fund them. So they have to enter the repo market ... they will sell the bonds and look to buy them back and will pay up to fund them in the "reverse repo market" .... Look it up buttercup.
    • SM
      Sam M.
      5 October 2020 @ 11:36
      "QE doesn't provide liquidity" ... faaarrk. Real Vision has hired this dude to provide weekly commentary on a topic he clearly doesn't know his ass from his elbow? Does he know what "liquidity" between banks even means? Does he not know about reserve accounts and real time gross settlement? Who is hiring the "talent" at RV? You are misleading your subscribers. I generally don't care as I make most of my income laughing at property investors following the latest "spiv". But I (used to) expect more from RV.
    • SM
      Sam M.
      5 October 2020 @ 11:52
      my terminology was always loose since I would confirm with the desk before executing ... trying to write it up ... agghhh. annoying, no edit.
  • TC
    Thomas C.
    5 October 2020 @ 10:54
    Great very useful analysis Steve
  • mc
    mark c.
    5 October 2020 @ 10:51
    Steven (Bond King): Love your work. I understand your view that QE is deflationary. I really like you going to the charts to show very tight lending standards and dollars shrinking. How does stimulus affect dollars? I think you and Ral are looking for the DXY to increase. Wouldn't stimulus be like people getting lots of loans and increase the money supply? Thank you. Mark
  • TT
    Timo T.
    5 October 2020 @ 10:10
    One thing that I think people should be more clear about when talking about credit ratings is that BBB is one big category. Only BBB- is at the cusp of downgrade to high yield. BBB+ is still far from high yield triggers. Also inclusion to investment grade indices is determined based on a composite of all ratings assigned to the credit, not just one individual rating from one agency. I’m not making any predictions about corporate downgrades but when you slice BBB category into BBB+, BBB and BBB- and acknowledge that you have to look at the composite of all ratings the situation looks less alarming
  • WL
    William L.
    5 October 2020 @ 08:47
    Great idea to have Steven further explain and deepen our understanding of these topics. Repetition helps our learning and is time well spent. Thanks!
  • JC
    Julian C.
    5 October 2020 @ 08:37
    Great initiative. SVM has such a wonderful way of explains matters clearly. This ability to democratise hitherto complex macro finance is a core value that is in the RV dna, and something all the staff members (not all guests) have in common.
  • IP
    Ingi P.
    5 October 2020 @ 06:47
    very clear, thanks Steven
  • JN
    Jill N.
    5 October 2020 @ 06:36
    Excellent , Value Add , keep it going please 👌
  • MN
    Miranda N.
    5 October 2020 @ 05:44
    No, "macro" isn't equivalent to "long-term". Jeez. Sorry.. just a few seconds into this.
  • DD
    Donovan D.
    5 October 2020 @ 05:27
    "For the first time in history, I believe the Fed gots my back" LOL, love this guy.
  • JP
    Julia P.
    5 October 2020 @ 05:16
    Helps me understand the fundamental mechanics of the unfolding. This is the information I need to say, yes, this is why Raoul is correct. Thank you, Steve.
  • GK
    Gautam K.
    5 October 2020 @ 05:14
    This guy is just amazing! His ability to break things down is golden.
  • jW
    john W.
    5 October 2020 @ 04:32
    Very good Steve. You've just relieved a lot of frustration for me and made Raoul's Vision (RV) much more understandable and useful! Thank You.
  • FC
    Frank C.
    5 October 2020 @ 04:30
    I loved it! Steven still had a great smile when explaining the insolvency. Very classy and wonderful breakdown of Raoul’s steps of the Unfolding. I hope to see more of this type of content in the future.
  • sc
    sung c.
    5 October 2020 @ 04:16
    Love this addition and will be looking forward to the weekly breakdowns.
  • LV
    Leon V.
    5 October 2020 @ 04:03
    I really like the this type of video. Makes it so easy to understand the video. Don't need to waste more time to watch the video more than once. Thanks.
  • XF
    Xavier F.
    5 October 2020 @ 03:23
    great thanks !
  • RC
    Rennie C.
    5 October 2020 @ 03:00
    That was amazing he explained it so well and summarized everything. Love Real Vision !
  • JS
    Jake S.
    5 October 2020 @ 02:29
  • SH
    Shunjie H.
    5 October 2020 @ 02:19
    The downgrading of BBB to junk reminds me of 'The Big Short' movie where Moody's rated the high risk CDO a AAA rating. I have a feeling they will be pressured politically to maintain the investment grade until its too late.
  • SN
    Stefan N.
    5 October 2020 @ 02:18
    Great Addition!! Love to have further clarifications like this on core concepts. I think it would be really interesting for RV to interview David Lee for example who represent the very bullish equities side of the argument. As RV is pushing for democratisation of information I think that would follow suit very nicely. Contrarian but yet very qualified views is healthy and he is also pro Crypto. What do you guys think??
  • CP
    Christopher P.
    5 October 2020 @ 02:12
    Awesome video, Steve! I love the way you explain things.
  • TZ
    Tibor Z.
    5 October 2020 @ 02:11
    Loved the first FED chart! Gonna save it into my bookmarks!
  • TZ
    Tibor Z.
    5 October 2020 @ 02:04
    Would love to see these explanation videos in the future along with the interviews! Personally it helps me to fill up the gaps in my knowledge!
  • OT
    Omar T.
    5 October 2020 @ 00:48
    steven added real value with this video. great job
  • NF
    N. F.
    5 October 2020 @ 00:48
    This is so outstanding. Steven is a great communicator and really fills a need on RV by providing this kind of breakdown. Super exciting to see this evolution at RV.
  • LM
    Luke M.
    5 October 2020 @ 00:00
    Liked this a lot. I'm a gold/bitcoin (more so gold simply because I understand it more) bull, but I almost entirely agree with Steven's thesis. My only issue on the final section is that he lays out 2 scenarios: 1. Gold/BTC rallies and he has his bonds he can sell 2. Gold/BTC sells off short term and he can sell bonds that have appreciated to buy them on the cheap. What about a 3rd scenario, which is truly doomsday: 3. A line is crossed and the Fed loses the bond market (maybe it's MMT?) I feel like scenario 2 might be the highest probability short term, but scenario 3 is too high a probability for me to want to get cute with my entry point into gold/BTC. Buying bonds feels like too much of a hot potato!
  • SC
    Sean C.
    4 October 2020 @ 23:50
    Omg thank you! This is exactly what I needed. RV rules!
  • YB
    Yair B.
    4 October 2020 @ 23:09
    Wonderful! As I mentioned in my "How I use RV" video, I learned everything I know about finance and economics from RV. This video right here is proof of that. I watched both videos - Raoul Pal's "Has everything changed" and Steven's interview (don't remember the name). This video showed me that I understood both these videos even though I don't have any background in the world of finance. Kuddos to RV! One question: Raoul is expecting downgrades of investments grade bonds to junk, which, if I understand correctly, will lead to massive selling of those bonds from pension funds and also will not allow those funds to buy those bonds. How do we know that the grading companies, such as S&P, will not make sure to not create that kind of situation, or, how do we know that regulators will not give funds the permission to buy junk bonds, which will then hold the system up for a little while and maybe into recovery?
  • AL
    Aaron L.
    4 October 2020 @ 23:04
    Thankyou for showing where you get the data. More info on data from the repo market would also be awesome. Tkuvm
  • LG
    Lucas G.
    4 October 2020 @ 23:01
    Great content. Thanks!!!
  • PB
    4 October 2020 @ 23:01
    Love it.
  • DF
    David F.
    4 October 2020 @ 22:47
    What a great idea. To have help understanding these things from another source. Thank you.
  • NR
    Nathan R.
    4 October 2020 @ 22:11
    How very meta...
  • SK
    Sergey K.
    4 October 2020 @ 21:42
    not buying into bitcoin... why would one invest into a swift for example without having a share of it or a yield? bitcoin became an artificially promoted transfer vehicle hungry for liquidity to facilitate those transfer but it has no value to one who mins it or buys it - it only brings value to the consumers of the transfers. well... one can day trade it! cool, just tell me how trades are cleared? is there an arbitrage? can i get level II or even level I? am I willing to bring all red flags up at once on the multiple financial spy agencies governments around the world put up like mushrooms after a rainy day? can i at least easily sped it or exchange it? give it a try and let me know.
    • MK
      Michael K.
      4 October 2020 @ 21:59
      I don’t know how to not be off out here, but your rant makes no sense. You should learn about what bitcoin is because your comments indicate you have no clue. Read Yan Pritzker’s book. Read the bitcoin standard. Read the white paper. Run Bitcoin Core node and look at block streams block explorer.
  • PW
    Phil W.
    4 October 2020 @ 21:32
    It is very important to understand time frames! Raul is long term, he is 50ish years old. I was traveling Europe and North Africa when Raul was a twinkle in his mothers eyes. So given your age, trade what you know. For me, I trade Canadain Markets on a daily basis but I only trade what I really know and understand..............My two cents
  • JD
    John D.
    4 October 2020 @ 21:23
    What a great way to synthesise key components of multifaceted ideas. I love this format and agree Mr Van Metre is the right peg for this hole. Can’t end without adding that RV exposure has been life changing and mind blowing. This format works really well. Keep up the innovation RV.
  • CR
    Colin R.
    4 October 2020 @ 21:11
    I really need a this content. Great addition
  • MB
    Mickel B.
    4 October 2020 @ 19:27
    Great idea for a series! Breakdown and explanations of intricate concepts which are sometimes taken for granted by experts who are just used to them having worked with them for years or decades+. Breaking them down into simple "bite size bits" and then stringing them together to create a lightbulb moment for the listener is, in my opinion, *not* easy without sounding like a run on record while your audience's eye glaze over. But, for me, Mr. Metre does a fantastic job in his Premiere video, made me an instant fan!
    • SV
      Steven V. | Contributor
      4 October 2020 @ 20:45
      Thank you!
  • OJ
    4 October 2020 @ 20:04
    Great idea!!
  • ES
    Edward S.
    4 October 2020 @ 19:59
    Brilliant idea and exactly the right guy for the job.
  • JD
    John D.
    4 October 2020 @ 19:14
    Thanks Steve and RV, this is a great addition for me and, I'm sure, many others. I'll be watching!
  • TR
    Tadej R.
    4 October 2020 @ 19:03
    Great idea, love it.
  • NB
    Nikhil B.
    4 October 2020 @ 17:33
    This is great. I think one element of powerful conversation is "Simplicity" I see a lot of speakers on real vision talk broad, and thats fine, but they miss on providing specific insight on things such as Gold, Stocks, and other investments such as Bitcoin. Tell us simply what you think of a mid term target, and a long term target and Why.
  • MB
    Mate B.
    4 October 2020 @ 17:21
    Fcking great educational content! Thanks Steven:)
  • AM
    Alexander M.
    4 October 2020 @ 17:18
    The clearest of explanations anyone could ask for. Thank you Steve, wonderful job.
  • BG
    Bastian G.
    4 October 2020 @ 17:13
    Couldn't be any better, fantastic idea. Follow Steven on YouTube even if I understand just 10% what he is saying. It's the first time I could follow 99% of it, so thank you! Please continue doing this, just excellent!
  • TH
    Trung H.
    4 October 2020 @ 16:36
    Interesting new segment. I look forward to learning more from Steven. I really like the clarity and explanation on Raul bitcoin/gold trade on risk management.
  • KK
    Kenneth K.
    4 October 2020 @ 16:12
    2 words, simple elegance. Thank you so much Steven!
  • NG
    Nicolas G.
    4 October 2020 @ 15:28
    Steven, you are the true RV star. Humble but at the same time so knowledgeable that you easily transmit your knowledge in such a way a 10 years old kid could understand it. You are very empathic and I find that audience connects with you very easy. Great to know you will be back to RV more often. Thank RV for the show! You made it again.
  • MD
    Marco D.
    4 October 2020 @ 15:05
    This is some awesome innovation RV team, well done. I definitely feel I am getting my monies worth on by sub.
  • TE
    Tom E.
    4 October 2020 @ 14:54
    Steven is fantastic. Such a thorough analyser and clear communicator. Great addition RV team!
  • CD