Comments
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CHThis thinking needs to penetrate financial markets more generally. It seems that the majority of people - including central bankers - have not understood money and monetary policy for the past third of a century. We can only manage what we understand. I’m looking forward to Jeff Snider’s 2019 update. Thanks!
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JSPure genius.
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JLCongrats to RV. Sneider with two or 3 more people are the few that understands money, and modern finance. I think RV should ask him to explain his view on "short Dollar" and also some master class over the eurodollar system. There is no enough thanks to RV to give him back.
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JVSuperb! More please! One of the very best.
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ODJeff is on the right path, more people should be focused on the banking system credit creation process. He just waffled a bit though and didn't provide a wholeistic framework for monitoring credit growth going forward, further developments in banking system and implicaitons for asset prices. Also how did he go that whole presentation without mentioning Basel 3.......... It a good presentation but it could of been amazing
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DROkay, an impressive presentation, but why then is the dollar crashing? Tq.
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RMVery thoughtful analysis. I would add though that if the Fed were to start selling its balance sheet, I think interest rates would go up significantly though I doubt the Fed has the nerve to do so. Also, if they raise the Fed funds rate, it could tighten credit for auto loans which would depress sales to lower credit borrows like the ones who buy non-luxury cars. This could cause retrenching of the auto industry..
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RZI had to watch it twice ,but I got it ,nothing short of brilliant --can we reserve him a chair at the Federal Reserve
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BAMoney is debt after 1971. Repeat after me: Banks Don't Lend Reserves. Banks create Credit thus money as deposits when they lend. THERE IS NO FRACTIONAL MONEY MULTIPLIER. GOVT DEFICITS
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MF@ SAM B: Couldn't agree more. It takes time following Snider's blog to get into these things. His insights are amazing. @ RVTV: bring on a Master Class with Grant, Raoul, Mike Green, Daniel Want and J.Snider. There needs to be more clearification on what really defines liquidity and where it currently stands. This is crucial in understanding the global economy. (Practically. No upside in yields as liqu is low and falling)
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TYWorth the sub price alone, excellent insight
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JKI agree with Eric (Mar 26. 2017). This is only Part 1 of a soon to be series, right?
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EKIncredible insight from a truly independent thinker. Jeff is brilliant and we must see more of him on RVTV. I urge a series of four additional interviews to focus on core concepts from this presentation, with the last one dedicated to Jeff's expectation for asset prices, bond yields, etc. He is one of the best.
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BLJapan once had a large Euroyen market but it disappeared under zero interest rate policy too. I also think oil was a kind of money substitute for mid east producers and the drop in oil from 100 to 50 has the effect of a tight money move.
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KSThe Great moderation is plain old credit expansion and they all knew it. There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. It will end with voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion or later as a final and total destruction of the currency system involved. The final outcome of credit expansion is general impoverishment. What we have here is a good old fashion Ponzi scheme economy created by none other than the Federal Reserve. This criminal cabal needs to smashed and it's leaders taken out and shot.
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DWBrilliant!! JS is among the best - it would be great to have him appear more regularly, in either presentation or interview form on RVTV (at least quarterly if possible?). I think an interview with Grant/Raoul next would be great, especially to drill down further (in more practical terms) on his understandings of the monetary system and the investment implications for the major asset classes (understanding a little further how he reconciles monetary phenomena to different asset markets to gain forward looking perspective would be interesting I think). Fantastic presentation. Well done!
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DSExcellent presentation by Mr. Snider. Good, bad or ugly monetary policies cannot solve real GDP issues. With all the disruptions of globalization, the internet and political incompetence, the risk of investment is very high and the number of probable net cash flow investments is low. Monetary policy is not as important as who, where and how can money be put to work productively. DLS
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AHSo what is the trade based on this? If reflation doe not come the fed might not be able to hike much more, or even have to lower again. Bonds would rally (TLT etc.) and the economy would grow slowly and would come close to recessions more often (like in Feb 2016)??????
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SBYES. Bravo for bringing back Jeff... something I've been clamoring for for months! The rise and fall of the Eurodollar system is by far the most complete explanation of why things have happened as they have in finance and the economy over the last few decades. His work is truly unique and it's also immensely underappreciated... I strongly encourage anyone remotely interested in this material to read his blog. It might take several months to figure out exactly what he's talking about, but these RV presentations make it easier to crack the code. Once you understand the nuances of his thesis, you will never look at the financial world the same way. My only gripe (if you can call it that) is that this left me wanting even more. As someone below outlined, Snider's range of expertise is very broad. An interview with Grant, Raoul or Mike Green touching on the CNY, JPY, swaps and repo would be huge.
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RDLove Jeff's work. Following his twitter feed and blog have schooled me on the failings of the current system. Bravo Jeff and RV.
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VKI find some of the topics mentioned in all of Jeffery's interviews extremely complex. Perhaps it's worth RV/ him releasing one of those 'cheat sheets' that Michael Green had to help viewers follow.
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VSI love this man's presentations!
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TSGreat. Just when I think I understand something the rugs is pulled out again. :-) I'll have to watch this 4-5 more times to get a hint of what he is saying but I found it all very funny. Another great interview, thanks, RV!
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LKSo Greenspan got the US out a jam with Eurodollars, and since there is no replacement for Eurodollars to get out of our current jam, the US can't get out of it alone, the world central banks will have to agree to do something together, i.e. global devaluation/reinflation. Fractional banking as we know it now, may not survive. So is hard assets like bitcoin/gold in our future? And peer to peer lending?
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JHI love every one of his presentations, really gets me to think, which is why I come to RV.
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RBThe best of the best. He's more valuable than the vast majority.
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GGFacinating and disappointing. This was a great analysis but I already knew that central banks have lost control. What I want to know is: what does this potentially mean going forward? If the real situation has never been properly understood and all the tinkering by the Fed has been irrelevant are we headed for an armageddon type reset, indefinite stagnation, social upheaval (in the form of war or revolution)....or what????
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RAOnce again I have been presented a viewpoint by RV TV that I have never considered or have heard from any other source. That alone is worth the subscription price to me. I'm curious what Raoul and Grant think of this viewpoint as to my memory neither have addressed it head on.
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M.Here is the download link to Jeffrey Snider's presentation: https://we.tl/jSbfm7cWV0
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GSAmazing interview! Please have him back! I personally do not like to hit pause while watching an interview, so it would be great to slow down a little and maybe explain some charts in a little more detail? I also found the annotation on some charts a little too light for my taste. It for example took me ages to understand the chart at -19:37. Other than that it would be great to see the same analysis for China and also aggregated over the whole global economy? P.S.: Damn I would love to have access to a Bloomberg account to check all these numbers myself :).
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MYExcellent work thank you It will be great if JEFFREY SNIDER can expand on this argument in future contributions: “And so we have to evaluate quantitative easing, not as money printing but what it actually was, which was essentially creating a bunch of useless, inert by-products of long, large scale asset purchases, which expanded the Federal Reserve's balance sheet but little else. It didn't achieve any kind of money printing. And in fact, we can't detect any kind of money printing in the economy or in these markets, largely because it wasn't”. Being based in London, I can detect that in house prices and stock market valuation, is it that the long due hyperinflation occurred in the form of asset price inflation?
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EKI cannot recommend Jeffrey's blog more highly. He is a fountain of monetary and historical knowledge. Brazil, China, Mexico, Eurodollars, Federal Reserve in the 1920s, Labor Market, Housing, VAR, gold, 1930s, late 19th century banking, October 15, 2014. He covers it. Three daily posts or so on average. (Larry B., please re-listen to interview. I promise you that JPS does not believe he was a maestro. Just the opposite.) Thank you RV for alerting me to his work. http://www.alhambrapartners.com/author/jsnider/
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lbwaste of time listening to someone that believes greenspan was the maestro. he was a disaster.
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DMReally interesting big picture view. Great stuff RV.
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NvGreat talk. I would point to two issues worth considering when it comes to his reflation theory. 1. I started going to China in 2004 and it was fact that it exported DEflation to the rest of the world. That fact has recently changed. China is now exporting INflation to the rest of the world. Do not underestimate this. 2. We have seen the velocity of money fall for 20 years straight due to excessive debt, and the annihilation of animal spirits in the economy (regulation etc). Economists seems to accept that this will always be the case. I suspect the probability that it wont keep falling is well higher than the 0% economists subscribe to this outcome
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jhBravo! Really well done. Snider was reassuring in his sound understanding of underlying concepts (if not his message). As an aside, one doesn't have to go far to understand how fraught measurement of the "output gap" really is; economists really just winging this. See here for instance. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2013/09/basics.htm
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CBWe need MOAR of these monetary-based examinations of our financial system and markets. Fascinating stuff.
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WSSnider once again demonstrates how the "intellectual but idiot" class of contemporary academic economists have utterly *fubarred* the entire global monetary system. A generation or so hence, economic historians will have consigned Greenspan, Bernanke, et al. to the dustbin of shame where they belong -- at which point it will probably be just about time for a future iteration of monetary mandarins to start making the same mistakes all over again ...
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RMJeff, really appreciate your clear and lucid explanations of what really happened behind the scenes in the banking/monetary crisis that we have all been through. It helps to have a better understanding of what they (the Fed) did, and what they "thought" they were doing. I know they thought they were doing the right thing, but boy, it appears they were all a bunch of clueless idiots (at least that's how it looks in hindsight)!
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SWBrilliant. I'll need to watch again because I'm further to the left on the IQ curve.
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ACJeff might have presented an alternative to the eurodollar system. Overall a terrific presentation of the failed monetary exercises of the past 30 years.
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M.GIEDRIUS A. you can download the transcript by clicking the 'Transcript' button in the video card for this piece of content. M
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LVImagine, just imagine that the Maestro (in one of those true revisiting interviews) was here with Jeff and answering to his arguments and objections! Great work, JS and RV tv.
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PUHis presentation took the words "right from my head"! What a great job explaining a difficult reality!
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PUF&$%ing awesome! Bravo!!!
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JCSo the FED is Flying Blind and has been Flying Blind for Decades!
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GAWhy don't we have option to download transcript of the presentation as it is very important to read and understand what has been said?