Retirement: What You Don’t Know Will Bankrupt You

Published on
February 9th, 2020
Duration
5 minutes

“The Yield Hunger Games”: An Introduction to Debt Week


Retirement: What You Don’t Know Will Bankrupt You

Presentations ·
Featuring Raoul Pal

Published on: February 9th, 2020 • Duration: 5 minutes

In this video, Raoul kicks off the most important two weeks of content ever– the coming retirement crisis. Today, the retirement dream is being shattered as pension funds and individual 401k’s don’t match up with their promises and pensions and financial advisors are taking unprecedented risks with the life savings of those just retired, or retiring soon. One day soon, that risk is going to wipe out peoples retirement savings, leaving them with no job and no income. In the next two weeks you will learn about the issues, risks and concerns along with many solutions to help people avoid risking everything. Join Raoul for an introduction to the Real Vision campaign that you literally cannot afford to miss.

Comments

Transcript

  • JF
    Jennifer F.
    14 February 2020 @ 00:59
    The Pig in the Python is a brilliant book to read in relation to Demographics. Its an easy read, easy to understand.
  • KA
    Kevin A.
    13 February 2020 @ 13:16
    The hurdle is that when I try to watch long RV videos, they time out most of the time (player_error_timeout) and I can’t watch them.
  • LW
    Lorenz W.
    12 February 2020 @ 04:38
    Straightforward question: When living in the Eurozone/Germany, what ETFs can someone look at to put on the long-bond trade Raoul is suggesting here?
    • AA
      Andrew A.
      12 February 2020 @ 16:57
      DTLA.L (iShares $ Treasury Bond 20+yr UCITS ETF USD) perhaps?
  • EK
    Edward K.
    9 February 2020 @ 23:09
    Public pensions are a real issue. As more and more public employees retire the net effect will be reflexive. For example a 52 year fire captain in Oriinda, CA retired with $2225,000 a year pension. As more retire this will cause governments to raise taxes on properties ultimately causing flight or depressing prices or raising rents, and so on. Could be a negative feedback loop.
    • EK
      Edward K.
      9 February 2020 @ 23:10
      Typo - $225,000 - still a pretty good pension
    • DK
      D K.
      10 February 2020 @ 19:36
      When it comes time to bail out CA, I expect Congress yo force states like CA to reduce such excess pensions to about 1/3 of what they get now.
    • NZ
      Nicolas Z.
      11 February 2020 @ 16:53
      Venezuela is a case study in point. The Government gave access to pensions to a large segment of the population (housewifes, rural workers, etc.) and it was easy to "brive" bureaucrats to qualify for a disabled diagnostic and get a pension. Today, a pension in Venezuela amounts to $5 a month. Yes, five dollars per month. It can be done. It is being done.
  • TM
    Troy M.
    11 February 2020 @ 02:41
    Why don’t you guys take BAT from the Brave Browser? It has a built in crypto wallet. You guys talk about crypto all the time, you should try it out. Forbes uses MetaMask payments now. The native Crypto wallet of Brave is a fork of MetaMask.
  • RC
    Robert C.
    10 February 2020 @ 05:09
    Bravo Raoul. As someone who is 30 years away from my expected retirement age I'm extremely glad that Real Vision is going to cover the issues from a broad demographic lens. Too often I feel like prevailing narrative is that this issue is a solely a baby boomer problem without considering the downstream impact on to the other generations.
  • LJ
    Lawrence J.
    9 February 2020 @ 23:48
    Can someone explain how expected future returns are negative?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      10 February 2020 @ 00:13
      See the work of GMO and also Hussman Funds on this.
    • MS
      Michael S.
      10 February 2020 @ 05:00
      Valuations imply returns going forward. High valuations, likely low return. Low valuations, likely higher return. Right now, just about everything (except emerging markets, gold, and just a smattering of individual stocks) is at a very high valuation, and at such a high valuation that the expected returns are negative over the next 5-10 years.
  • DM
    Douglas M.
    10 February 2020 @ 02:20
    As a public sector employee - I'm a HS English Teacher in NY, I will watch with laser like focus on all of these upcoming videos.
  • KC
    Ken C.
    10 February 2020 @ 00:01
    Raoul,  There is possibly a bigger problem...  its the high percentage of our aging population without enough saving.   Every Gen X, Millennial and Gen Z have parents.  Are they prepared to support their parents when their parents can no long support themselves.  I say this because most of the younger generations are clueless on their parents financial condition.  This will be a burden for them and I believe a bigger problem then their student loans and also for the economy.   
  • NI
    Nate I.
    9 February 2020 @ 20:04
    I'm sure RV will do a great job of explaining the problem, but I'll be shocked - no, make that thrilled - if any practical answers emerge. The bottom line is that there is simply no way to generate enough retirement income at 1% or less (how many people could amass $5M USD or more?), and if you go out on the risk curve, you might find yourself living under a bridge when the current system collapses. Oh you could try bitcoin or maybe some exotic trading strategy and hope to win the financial lottery, but your odds of success are very low. It's time to forget about stocks/etfs/bonds/etc for now and do something like what Chris Martenson at PeakProsperity is suggesting. I'm not trying to pitch PP and I'm not a member myself, but I believe Dr Martenson is on the right track. If you listen to his thoughts, I think you'll agree. Recognize there is no path to prosperity in a failed, corrupt and unsustainable system that exists only to support ever more elephantine government and a select few elites atop the pyramid. Even highly paid doctors, lawyers, etc can't save enough to prosper in this corrupt system. I wish it wasn't true, but it's pretty simple really. You have to opt-out of the failed system and build something for yourself out of land, bricks, mortar, tools, social capital etc. and just hope that you can work hard enough to overcome the onerous regulation and taxation that gets worse by the day.
    • DH
      David H.
      9 February 2020 @ 22:07
      Most people have a better understanding of sports stats than their money. The typical American household income now stands at 58K/yr. Meaning 30-45 years of working or $1.8M - $2.6M will pass through their hands. IMHO, people don't understand that $5 latte is really costing their future self of $75. Too many people try to be weekend millionaires. The generation born after 1977 tries to keep up the lifestyle of their grandparents but didn't spend the time masking their savings. The boomers paid cash for their things. The current generation likes to look for "experiences", enjoys borrow cheap money but complains about paying it back. What is Vanlife? Proud to homeless? They own a depreciating asset and losing the opportunity on a standard 2% equity appreciation from owning a property. Furthermore an income stream in the future. Triple negative. The average new home houses four family members now is about 2400 sq foot or about 600/sq/person. Fifty years ago, the typical house was 1500 sq with five family members or 300/sq/person. It is incredibly difficult to fund your retirement when you live in a house that is 8-10X your annual salary. In major cities, the price of housing can be as high as 20X. Lifestyle issues. Cars is the worst asset class people own. We have rollover loans of 84 months above $800/mth now. Just because their loan officer says you have this car doesn't mean you should take it. Go buy 5-8K car and save that $800 payment and in four years you can buy that car debt free. BUT people want things now. Furthermore, most people should never own more than 20% of annual salary in cars as this is the number one depreciating asset your portfolio. It is all about ratios. There is nothing wrong with owning that Lambo if it represents less than 20% of your annual salary. There is nothing wrong with owning an 850K house if it is only 50% of your annual salary. It is wrong when you own two new cars that value exceeds your annual salary. It is wrong to buy a house 400K when you make 60K. I am optimistic that RV may present something that has a clear call to action. I doubt RV present anything that is wholistic as it is not profitable to tell people to first pay off their debts then come and invest. Rather, invest now with us. Don't tell them about the withdrawal penalty because these family doesn't have any margins. Let watch and see what Raoul means "to have Fiduciary responsible."
  • DH
    Derik H.
    9 February 2020 @ 20:33
    I am delighted RV is taking this topic on. In my experience most of the public gives no meaningful thought to their retirement until it is upon them, and then it is too late to make meaningful changes. The folks who need this information the most are probably the least likely to ever find it. We will be impacted by the public’s lifetime of bad decisions. The more we share this information, that will be presented, the better off we will all be.
  • WM
    Will M.
    9 February 2020 @ 19:15
    As a baby boomer retiring this year, having saved hard and amassed currently healthy pensions and various savings plans. THIS is going to be THE biggest benefit to me. I am terribly IMPRESSED that Raoul and team are making this available at such a token cost. Bravo!!!
  • JF
    Jack F.
    9 February 2020 @ 13:42
    can't wait!
  • sm
    sam m.
    9 February 2020 @ 10:20
    I can't wait. I am sick of people arguing you can lower the yield curve and increase the PV of pension/accumulation liabilities ... and then suddenly thinking they can also trade through it and benefit from future lower asset values (and hence a a higher rate of return) without costs to society. Apparently everyone is going to be a net winner ... which of course isn't possible. This is the definition of cognitive dissonance. I visited the UK from AUS in about 2010 and long term real yields were dropping to 0.50% and pension funds were like ... "you have got to be ####ing kidding me ... I am not #####ing buying inflation linked bonds at 0.5%" ... Yet do they buy them now at negative yields? Apparently not if you can trade through and benefit from some future sell off..? Yet so many "muppets" still think that we can mark to market liabilities at government yield curves and fund future obligations. I am looking forward to what RV has to say about this topic as I just hear so much rubbish.