Santiago Capital – Step Into Liquid

Published on
July 12th, 2016
55 minutes

The Importance of the Business Cycle (Or Why I Learned to Reject Theoretical Economics)

Santiago Capital – Step Into Liquid

Presentations ·
Featuring Brent Johnson

Published on: July 12th, 2016 • Duration: 55 minutes

Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital, dives into the fundamentals of global debt and capital flows, giving an overview of the current regulatory environment and devaluation of the yuan.


  • RM
    Robert M.
    13 July 2016 @ 15:35
    All of these videos here make sense here on RealVision but when does it start to fall apart? Strong dollar and we still have a 9 trillion dollar carry trade.
    • CC
      Christopher C.
      5 April 2020 @ 08:09
      Starting now!
  • MD
    Mario D.
    12 October 2019 @ 00:04
    Brent, Thank you so much for such an educational video. I feel that what I have learned from this presentation along pays for my yearly subscription to Real Vision. Thank you to the entire team of Real Vision for the invaluable public service that you guys provide!
  • DR
    Daniel R.
    29 April 2017 @ 20:45
    Brent, being a new Texan, can you help us with Texit? Adding this to my gold strategy
  • WM
    Will M.
    22 December 2016 @ 15:30
    Just watched this again after almost 6 months. Excellent presentation and clear warning signs. Whats to be done..........
  • CP
    Christopher P.
    13 August 2016 @ 09:13
    Mike N. - I would welcome any counter to Brent's presentation which I thought was incredibly factual and compelling. The reason the charts look scary is because they are. Brent is not a fear mongerer or doomsayer! He is just stating fact and what he believes will be the ultimate end to the monetary system (which has happened numerous times in the last century) and what he believes would be the best approach to protecting your capital in unprecedented circumstances. Please substantiate your view with facts before refuting someone's work.
  • bm
    brian m.
    1 August 2016 @ 23:49
    I loved the dramatic ending...I agree on the counterparty risk idea..Ray Dalio has a recent piece on the brevity of financial memory..Its been a while since counterpart risk has been questioned
  • MN
    Mike N.
    30 July 2016 @ 19:13
    This presentation is terrible. Anybody can throw out some scary stats and charts, but it should take more to be on RV. There should be something more than "these things are really bad, I believe the system is going to collapse". That's not a real thesis.
  • CR
    Colin R.
    28 July 2016 @ 19:50
    The arguments are presented cogently. The ending with the gold wave was great.
  • PD
    Paul D.
    27 July 2016 @ 10:58
    Great stuff Brent very well articulated
  • DH
    Dale H.
    22 July 2016 @ 09:22
    Thank you Brent. I enjoyed this and I appreciate the work put into it. This is a subject of great interest to me and the creative way you explained it really helped. I intend to watch it again with a friend as I have been talking about the blocks and musical chairs part and it is better to see it than use words to explain. Valuable stuff! It cannot be said too many times that understanding of these topics and asset preservation that follows are paramount. So many have no idea what is ahead. And have no safety in the liquid (or not) world you describe very well.
  • KT
    Kevin T.
    21 July 2016 @ 16:29
    This "Debt can never be mathematically paid back" argument assumes it all has to be paid back at once, which it doesn't. Say the whole economy is me & my brother and I have $10 which is the monetary base. I lend it to him and charge him $1 interest. According to Brent this can now never be paid back. But maybe he gives me $8 back, then does some work that I pay him $3 for and he promptly returns it to me to pay off the rest. Done! I actually agree with you Brent but it is because I think the brother has borrowed so much it is now completely impractical to expect him to pay it back - not because of some mathematical impossibility. I think inflation is the most palatable form of default and therefore the most likely outcome.
  • jS
    jurgen S.
    21 July 2016 @ 12:00
    Excellent! Great presentation. Some terrific content that really challenges ones thinking. Thanks.
  • JC
    John C.
    19 July 2016 @ 15:55
    that was pretty good and a very nice summary of what a lot of RVers have been talking and hearing about. Good stuff!
  • WH
    Wayne H.
    19 July 2016 @ 06:07
  • RO
    Riskis O.
    18 July 2016 @ 02:01
    Why so many professionals assume Bank of China (a public listed commercial bank) is the central bank of China.....(BoC is not PBoC)
  • SS
    Sebastien S.
    17 July 2016 @ 09:54
    Will require a second view to be able to apply criticism to this train of thought as it is very well articulated indeed.
  • AA
    ALI A.
    17 July 2016 @ 07:10
    Just an observation. At 33minutes, the sale of US assets by SWFs for the $s that they are denominated in: this incorrectly presumes that this will create increased demand for $s, however in this instance there is no bid for new $s as base currencies are the same, they net out. Isnt that true?
  • tw
    tam w.
    17 July 2016 @ 06:41
    Central banks will eventually create inflation, and together with a massive tax on assets price gains, will redistribute wealth to the 99%. Problem solved. If the 1% don't allow thiese taxes to be introduced, then we will have a revolution of the nastiest sort.
  • DR
    Dennis R.
    15 July 2016 @ 18:49
    A government that requires it's citizens to pay for the right to lend to their own government can just as easily eliminate cash as money. Or they can make it a crime for their citizens to be in possession of gold. If one really believes the capitalist system is collapsing they might do better buying canned beans and pancake flour. Gold is a fun thing to trade and makes for pretty jewellery but in the future it will be manipulated by the ruling classes.
  • DW
    David W.
    15 July 2016 @ 05:56
  • BJ
    Brent J. | Contributor
    15 July 2016 @ 01:47
    Thanks everyone for comments. I don't have all the answers but think I have a decent handle on the issues/challenges and tried to lay out how I think it unfolds. Ian - happy to listen to your thoughts and tell me where I might be wrong. Always open to learning and have my mind changed.
  • RV
    Richard V.
    15 July 2016 @ 00:59
    Brilliant and thoughtful presentation
  • JB
    John B.
    14 July 2016 @ 23:01
    Good walk through; EUR/USD cross-currency basis swap bears watching and should be looked at every,single day. Especially considering CS, DB and other European bank quickly-shrinking market caps
  • JV
    James V.
    14 July 2016 @ 21:43
    Wow! Quite simply, a tour de force. Excellent work, Brent, and thank you Real Vision for bringing it to us.
  • BB
    Bojo B.
    14 July 2016 @ 18:38
    Excellent! Very well explained and great arguments.
  • sa
    santosh a.
    14 July 2016 @ 18:30
    The experience of the past 8 years reminds of what Rudy Dornbusch noted. We have to assume that central banks are trapped and will not accept the theories of their Ph.Ds are wrong, so they will continue to get more extreme. While asset holders continue to do well in nominal terms, the working class wage earner with no financial assets keeps falling behind. So, it is more than a financial and economic issue, it is also a political issue. The question is how does the psychology of confidence in the current monetary/currency /political system change?
  • VP
    Vincent P.
    14 July 2016 @ 18:13
    Nice wavy presentation! Dating app analogy was spot on. Debt Bomb topic has been talked about for years now but still nobody cares and not many are listening. They're too busy riding waves of false narratives that appear to be perpetual in length, size, volume and duration. Frustrating.
  • MM
    MZ M.
    14 July 2016 @ 17:13
    Ditto others who said "Fabulous job Brent, and thank you for sharing!; Excellent presentation!" A very good summation of where we're at these days and how/why we got here so as to remind us of the simple logic of what basic economic history has taught; take a position in gold during times like these - its just prudent if nothing else. I personally benefited from the China Inflow Foreign Capital explanation to fill-in a gap in my knowledge from other RVTV presenters who have taught us how capital flows cause central banks to use their reserves to defend their currencies. I understood most of those lessons but this wrapped it all up in one nice chart and put a ribbon it. THANK YOU Brent!
  • BD
    Bruce D.
    14 July 2016 @ 11:48
    We must learn to think outside the box, and imagine all options as possibilities. Did anyone guess that we could have 13 Trillion dollars in negative sovereign interest rates 10 years ago? Be honest! The last time we had global deflation was in the 30's, and what was the best asset to own? GOLD. The race is on, so get your fair share of gold while you can.....knowledge is power.
  • BD
    Bruce D.
    14 July 2016 @ 11:43
    Fabulous job Brent, and thank you for sharing! While it is difficult to comprehend that gold and the dollar will be extremely strong together, due to our biases, history proves that it does happen. Some of the strongest gold bull markets have happened with dollar strength....and if we haven't noticed, it's happening right now! Gold is moving higher against ALL global currencies at the same time. Why? Because we're getting close to the end of the monetary system as we know it, and the global players know the US isthe last man standing. The last time we had global money flows like this was the great depression, when European banks went bankrupt......sound familiar? We must lea
  • TH
    Timo H.
    14 July 2016 @ 09:33
    Instant classic
  • NM
    Nick M.
    14 July 2016 @ 06:52
    Absolutely one of the best videos done so far on RT
  • JF
    James F.
    14 July 2016 @ 05:47
    As an accountant I appreciated the discussion of the stock and flow issue. You really have to understand the FED dynamic to explain how their balance sheet and income statement work. Well done!
  • GG
    Gerald G.
    14 July 2016 @ 03:33
    Excellent presentation with just the right amount of humility. The biggest take away for me was the reality that this is one giant global juggling act and that all it is going to take is one misstep for the whole thing to come tumbling down. To believe that a diversity of world leaders motivated by human self interest are going to perfectly coordinate for perpetuity is absurd.
  • SM
    Sam M.
    14 July 2016 @ 02:24
    The presentation was very well done and I enjoyed watching it. But there's something that's always confused me about the conversation to go to physical gold: if the whole system comes crashing down, are you really going to be needing gold, or led? Every time I envision that scenario, The Walking Dead comes to mind and physical gold was the last thing people needed or even wanted.
  • DS
    David S.
    14 July 2016 @ 01:30
    My major take away is - all investment decisions are, and always have been, stepping into liquid. The difference today is 1) the exponential speed and duplicity of the markets and 2) the power and duplicity of politicians can combine to cause catastrophic outcomes overnight . The Chinese government will do what it believe is in its and China's best interest regardless of market forces. The Italian government will find a way to capitalize its failing banks without bankrupting its citizens in spite of EU rules if necessary . The Greek citizens will continue to suffer unnecessarily because simple debt default procedures were not allowed by the EU, IMF, et al. Mr. Papic's interview makes clear to me that politics matter and politicians will do almost anything to keep power. Every morning we need to figure out how to surf the next wave. From Hawai'i nei.
  • RA
    Robert A.
    13 July 2016 @ 23:21
    Whether you agree with his premise or not it is clearly an excellent presentation. This is where the "chapters" RV upgrade really helps! We can watch the portions we are most interested again. Thanks for the system upgrade Milton.
  • AH
    Andreas H.
    13 July 2016 @ 20:55
    Do you guys know how hard it is for the fed to "produce" a 100 Trillion? 1 Button Click in 1 Second. They will do this if they have to. You just can not imagine it and that is the reason why you think the big deflation crash will come. Deflation is a game that can be beaten by the FED and CBs and they will beat it. We need Inflation and at the end of the day, they will produce it! Why, because "What ever it takes" is just a click of a button!
  • BL
    Bruce L.
    13 July 2016 @ 20:21
    well done Brent
  • LA
    Linda A.
    13 July 2016 @ 20:09
    Comprehensive. I am really enjoying the plethora of information. Thank you Brent!
  • IF
    Ian F.
    13 July 2016 @ 17:18
    This guy has no clue how the banking system works. Couldn't even make it 10 minutes. Who's the audience for this presentation...? Trying to scare 70 year old grandmas....?
  • PS
    Patrick S.
    13 July 2016 @ 16:45
    A well thought out presentation. It is unnerving to think how this could all play out. As Ben Hunt says, one needs "convexity" in ones portfolio. Protect ones capital. It is hard to build it again once it is gone. Thank you Real Vision.
  • GG
    Guillermo G.
    13 July 2016 @ 16:06
    As always, Brent´s presentations expose the main issues in the world economy in a clear and easy to understand manner. In a nutshell, all is honky-dory until one day is not. You better have a life jacket and a boat handy.