Sell in May or Die in July

Published on
May 14th, 2015
17 minutes

Sell in May or Die in July

Presentations ·
Featuring Alejandro Reyes

Published on: May 14th, 2015 • Duration: 17 minutes

Rainmaker weighs in with events of the past few weeks including the Q1 GDP print, a one-two punch to trade the Fed, and thoughts from the Mauldin Altegris SIC 2015 conference including disintermediation, the Fed's surprise at the TLT moon landing, and velocity of money.


  • BV
    Bogdan V.
    17 June 2015 @ 18:21
    Great analysis. Love how fluid and linked every commentary is. Thumbs up.
  • GR
    Guido R.
    25 May 2015 @ 07:28
    Dude... bring back the beer toast at the end of your clip.
  • LH
    Larry H.
    24 May 2015 @ 01:47
    lovethis man!
  • rs
    ravi s.
    24 May 2015 @ 01:11
    So if rates are going negative what are you going to sell in may? In that scenario you buy both stocks and bonds,,
  • DB
    Duncan B.
    20 May 2015 @ 05:37
    Hey Rainmaker - I love your style of delivery - makes for great entertainment! Thanks.
  • FJ
    Frank J.
    19 May 2015 @ 15:53
    Great analysis!
  • MR
    18 May 2015 @ 14:59
    Diego,for sure2:1isn't riskless. if the balance sheet expansion/stock correlation breaks, noone is forced to keep the trade going. in such a case one might put on double weight bonds. time will tell.
  • LS
    Luiz S.
    18 May 2015 @ 14:36
    I like his presentations, but dont exactly follow what his scenario means for stocks....
  • CB
    C B.
    18 May 2015 @ 12:37
    Gutsy recession call. This runs contrary to most economist projections that the Q1 slowdown was weather related and we'll see a recovery in summer. Let's see who's right.
  • AE
    Alex E.
    18 May 2015 @ 07:44
    Alejandro is another reason why I love RVTV!! two are geniuses, indeed!
  • AE
    Alex E.
    18 May 2015 @ 07:42
    Alehandro is another reason why I love RVTV!
  • AB
    Alain B.
    17 May 2015 @ 02:43
    Rainmaker, your best so far. Keep them coming.
  • Dd
    Diego d.
    16 May 2015 @ 12:09
    Miguel, a 2:1 (stock:bond) allocation means that, roughly, 90% of the risk comes from stocks. The trade idea might work if QE will, again, avoid a recession. If not, expect a huge drawdown
  • IP
    IDA P.
    16 May 2015 @ 08:04
    I agree that the forecasts are too optimistic, expected inflation is down; I have a question though: doesn't Cina QE o ECB QE matter? the FED is not doing QE but the ECB is and money moves everywhere
  • SS
    Scuba S.
    16 May 2015 @ 01:41
    Love the @NJC chart reference and slight hint of ZH. Side note would love the video HUD to disappear with mouse dead time while video is paused to get a better look at charts.
  • MR
    15 May 2015 @ 21:25
    Diego, you missed the part about the '50/50' trade and the 'one two' trade. If stocks go down during QE his 'one two' trade keeps him exposed to some bonds as a semi hedge. centrral planning = risk
  • MR
    15 May 2015 @ 19:37
    Chris... you weren't listening, The Rainmaker said double weight stocks when the fed balance sheet is expenading... and double weight bonds when the fed balance sheet is contracting.
  • cr
    chris r.
    15 May 2015 @ 14:11
    So double weight on stocks, but die in july?????????
  • TJ
    Terry J.
    15 May 2015 @ 11:48
    Brilliant observations from Alejandro, the Rainmaker and Bond King
  • Dd
    Diego d.
    15 May 2015 @ 09:06
    Very risky trade idea. If you believe that a recession is coming soon, you cannot be long in stocks even with QE. It is all about risk management at the current stage.
  • RA
    Robert A.
    14 May 2015 @ 23:17
    QE-4, Negative Interst rates; Lions and Tgers and and Bears, Oh My! Queue the Rolling Stones "Start Me Up"?
  • MR
    14 May 2015 @ 22:14
    As per usual The Rainmaker makes it rain. All those expecting liftoff... get your coats and umbrellas ready there’s a storm coming courtesy of The Rainmaker. Thanks for the great reports Alejandro.
  • JR
    Jeff R.
    14 May 2015 @ 21:22
    Great research and video. Love how there are charts to see while he discusses it! This guy should have been an attorney -- great speaker and story teller -- I would believe anything he said.
  • CW
    Cole W.
    14 May 2015 @ 20:17
    The Rainmaker keeps it real.
  • db
    don b.
    14 May 2015 @ 20:04
    CliffsNotes buy gold & silver and mining stocks.
  • W
    Łukasz W.
    14 May 2015 @ 18:37
    One two punch. Float like a butterfly, sting like a bee.