£1 a month and a few days later I've come across this, an exponential return that's for sure! Big thanks Raoul for setting this platform up, the lessons have really been invaluable

the long cycle info is probably one of the best things I've ever heard - thanks

Any chance of transcript or subtitles?

Great framework Raoul! The only observation that I have is that the forecasting process you present assumes that the correlation between variables is statistically significant just because the correlation seems very close in visual terms on the chart... do you do any additional work for validating the data?

Rauol, great video. It would be great to see an update of where we are right now, referencing this framework. It reminds me of Ray Dalio's "How the economic machine works". If you did do an update it would be interesting to compare and contrast to Ray's work. It seems you are not far apart, in thinking. It would be insanely great if you could interview Ray and discuss this. Best regards

Rauol thank you for this! Would be great to get an update in a new world of less regulation and fiscal stimulus in the USA VS trade tensions

The first time I watched this was yesterday. The principles are almost timeless from what I can see. Excellent video, very educational.

Two years later: still love this.

Brilliant 10/10

This is excellent. Exactly what I would love to see more of. Thanks, Raoul. (Write that book, bro!)

Time for update Raoul? Would be very interesting

Thank you Raoul for this excellent video!

Can RV provide updated charts from this presentation? I'd love to see the trends over the past year and a half since Raoul published it.

Been a pretty strong "muddle" since November, 2016. Do you expect market to give it all (or most) back by end of 2017?

If you cover the 2007-2009 part on these charts, the correlation with ISM doesn't look robust.

Raoul when did you first make this presentation?

Wow ! And thank you John L

Raoul, this one video was worth the entire subscription.

Brilliant, I never have thought the ISM would be such a valuable cyclical indicator, especially when applied to a long-term study and when compared to major Indices like the S&P500. Raoul, do you still like bonds like you said in the video? I think bonds have already been overbought and can only go higher for so much longer, as the yields cannot go much lower. And if investors lose confidence in the Central Banking system and the solvency of the US Government, then wouldn't investors look for other safer assets such as Cash (USD), Gold, or Real Estate? You were right about bonds, though, since their price went up since this video. l would love to hear more about your view on Treasuries and Corp Bonds as of today (October 2016, and going into 2017)! Also, when looking at the ISM, are you looking at NMI or PMI?

Raoul nailed the ISM today.

Hi Raoul, I think that overall commodities GMI composite super cycle chart is epic. Few questions though, 1) how do i recreate this chart on my own using data from bloomberg? 2) why 10 Yo10y%? Perhaps it will make sense to me more after i pull up the raw data and try charting this on YoY or 2Yo2Y basis. Thank you!

Raoul, a month after your video was released, ISM and CESI have perked up in a significant way which has defied your expectations (approx. at -4:30). And based on both ISM/CESI being up, it would seem there's at least a few months of upside/muddle through. I'm interested to know how to explain this *interesting* point. The CESI chart does show the recent dip at about the same level as the prior top. Perhaps that should've been interpreted as a bullish sign? In any case, thank you for sharing your hard won battle-tested ideas - truly a gift to a new macro investor like myself.

The correlations to the ISM are remarkable, but what is the typical lag?

Really really like this. Thank you ever so for sharing. This is what Real vision was made for. Gonna take me a good few replays to internalise this. X

This was a very generous overview of your strategy framework, Raoul. Thank you! As a student of machine learning, it sparked a lot of interesting questions for me. Machine learning, being data-driven rather than theory-driven, seems very compatible with your similarly data-driven approach. However, I wonder if, given the time frames and relatively sparse data points involved, building a ML model would be worth-while. I can envision one potentially being able to update more precise probabilities with each new release of data, but wonder how much value that adds to a macroeconomic projection. Thanks again!

Eye opening charts & remarkable correlations. ISM is so much more powerful an indicator than I thought it was, going to keep an eye out on it going forward. Thanks for sharing your knowledge & wisdom, I hope the deep religiousity that Economists have created around their ideas gives way to fresher insights and ways of looking at the world. Also wish your GMI commentaries were more affordable for normal people - or at least some actionable portion relevant to small investors managing their savings / retirement accounts available at a reasonable price..

RP. What do you think it means that the commodity cycles appear to be shortening in duration?

Raoul please write the book on your investment framework ! Also waiting for your next video on BOP!

excellent overview of the macro cycles and the business cycle. I was never on board with the economics taught at university because its teachings have always lacked an understanding of reality….

Interesting segment, RP, but permit me to ask the “elephant in the room” impertinent question: if this analysis is as easy as you assert and with high predictability then why are you wasting your time educating us and not running a $10BN fund minting money for yourself and your investors?

Which of the ISM are you using?

Excellent piece. Especially well done on linking decision making on where you are at within the cycle.

This spring/summer has tough me more than my 2 years in university. Mostly because of you legends! :D

Awesome. Thanks Raoul. I share your frustration with academic economics and turned my back on it years ago. Thanks for providing a useful and understandable alternative.

Does not work

Absolutely amazing! I've been interested in cycles for a while now after reading about Martin Armstrong. This just confirms it and how you showed everything in detail is simply great. Thank you so much!!

Some more essential tools in the toolbox!

Brilliant and concise Raoul. Thank you. I shall watch this over and over. I also hope you do get the chance one day to write that book as I have no doubt it would be an instant bestseller. Don't hold your breath on managing to persuade universities etc. to adopt your teachings. It suits the Elites who control all the mainstream establishments to keep the majority uneducated economically so they can carry on with their Keynesian wizardry and manipulation, and continue plundering the wealth of the 99.9% in favour of themselves!

Perfect!

I was going to ask who "Rao" was. Perhaps an Egyptian God?? Hey, it's "Rao" the Egyptian god of Economics!!! :) All kidding aside, Thank you Raoul for a very informative lesson in how to determine direction of possibilities. While no process is 100% perfect, yours looks to be a great way to take advantage of near term direction and capitalize on this momentum. Again, thank you so very much for sharing your process with us.

I’ve just noticed there are two “Thomas R.’s” that comment. I'll start signing mine Tom Rae

QUESTION: Many of the charts utilize a “year over year change”. How I would interpret that (which may be incorrect) is that if a unit measurement moves from 200 to 190 it had a -5% change – so rather than charting the 10 units down the chart would reflect the down 5% year over year change – this the year over year change percent. My question is “Is the above interpretation of “year over year change” what you intended? I ask because in looking at your 1st chart – it doesn’t appear to support this interpretation whereas you 2nd chart does appear to support it. Your 1st chart reflected US Real GDP YoY%. The left or Y axis reflected a range of -6 percent to a +16 percent. (I’m assuming the Y axis is percent). The bottom or X axis reflected years. The chart appears to represent the percentage change up or down in GDP from year to year – however given the presentation and creating an example of a GDP drop from 2 percent to 1 percent, this chart reflects a 1 % move and not the 50% year over year move from 2 percent to 1 percent. Said differently, given GDP ranges are from say -2% to +6 percent – a 1 % increase or decease in GDP is actually a large percentage move based on the denominator being the prior year’s actual GDP. Your 2nd chart, which provides a 10 year moving average of the S&P 500 YoY%, appears to go back and validate my original interpretation of what a “year over year change” means. Example – if I eyeball 2004 at about 12% (assuming the Y axis values are percentages) then that tells me that the average of the last 10 years of year over year change in the S&P is 12%. The impact of the large year over year changes in the late 90’s offset by the negative year over year changes in the tech bubble crash.

US lies about its GDP.

The ISM is monkey survey. Optimism bias.

URSKA S commented below..... " how can you expect Yellen to not put forward another excessive monetary policy (or 10 for that matter) to prevent recession?" Yes it is very true Yellen could attempt to for more liquidity into the system with a QE4. The real problem she will have is the one of "CONFIDENCE". The confidence in central bankers is waining as it becomes clear they are not in control. A QE 4 based on infrastructure spend could well arise, but one that boosts the financial services industries will be seen as a potential failure like QE2 and 3. BREXIT demonstrates that the masses are already getting riled. One more excessive monetary policy injection could be the clear signal that control has been lost and therefore confidence will be lost.

Raoul, Wonderful presentation. But I have a problem with: 1 this "deflation" term you use , and 2 the CPI. Various assets are rising and falling now., SP v copper, but none of this is 'deflationary" to me. My cost of living has skyrocketed. The CPI is a fraud from the use of hedonics and other manipulation

Raoul, I am amused by the innovative spellings of your name so far in comments....but thank you for this. I've been a relatively successful multi-family investor in real estate using predominantly demographics and existing cashflow as my driver.--if you have demographics on your side, and are looking for a fixed income style yield off of real estate, those tend to be the two variables that matter. As an equity investor, though, I've not done well, for lots of reasons. Your business cycle model makes more sense than anything I have seen to date (though I enjoyed R Dalio's stuff, I couldn't really figure out how to apply it to what I'm doing). I'm not certain how I will use it going forward, but it made me go "hmm, I need to watch this one again, but with the ability to take notes." Incidentally, I no longer confuse you and Graham in the videos--my eyesight is poor, but the leadins really help ;-).

It's wonderful that you were able to rise above your training to implement a different framework. I successfully ignored for years those niggling thoughts that didn't work with my FRBNY and U Chicago training. My niggling thought now is that economics posits a growth environment - business cycles also result from a LT growth trend. I like your monsoon ideas but am thinking we're heading into a post-growth world. Any thoughts? Thank you for sharing your ideas. Please come for dinner next time you're in Hillsborough.

Any reading recommendations Raoul?

Love the probabilistic way of thinking. Shame that a simple leading indicator works better than any theoretical economics taught in college.

to Dana: the Yen tends to be a safe haven currency, even more so than the USD, at least according to l-t studies

Wow

Raoul, You mentioned you used the Treasury survey to proxy back to 1896. What did you use to proxy the SP500 back that far?

Thanks Raoul. The trend is your friend though the market has a way of making you feel wrong the whole way.

6/24/16: I get the euro and the GDP drop but why the Yen surge? dgardiner55@gmail.com

I don't agree I'm an expert, but maybe after I watch just one more time. Really - worth watching over and over. Very practical and insightful. Thanks for putting this on Real Vison!

Out-bloody-standing Raoul! That is one for the ages. The only "economicky" chart I was wondering if you were going to bust out is Velocity of Money vs ISM or similar metric. And your correlations are so good, one could make an algo out of it. Do you or anyone else know of such an algo and what is your position on algo's anyway?

Brilliant, thanks for sharing. But in The Insider you called for a head to head with Grant and his presentation was equally brilliant... So I see no other option than the two of you, as a tie breaker, each produce another piece in the next three months or so. :-)

I'm usually just here to absorb as much as I can and I never comment on anything ever but just wanted to let you know that you better write a book. you must find the time!!!!!

Raoul, what a great presentation. Thanks for taking the time to lay out your framework. When you drill down to equities, how do valuation multiples affect your thinking? For instance, I think we are late in the economic cycle, but acknowledge that it is possible that we are instead in a mid 1990s "pause" and hence that the economic cycle could run a few more years...but that being said, with U.S. equity valuations so stretched today, I see at best very modest upside for the US equity markets even if we have a few more years to the economic cycle. Just curious if you look at equity valuations as part of your framework.

Raoul brilliant presentation, thanks for the education. Now if you could only get the world economist to follow your lead the global economies might be in better shape.

Using the longer data series you can move the level to 45 and you get odds of over 90%. Its all about the odds. If you take during my lifetime its 100%. But doesnt take away from the calculation of odds. Again, its for you to use as a framework.

Paul G - I only use manufacturing

Alvern - As a % of world GDP i.e 100% no country has ever this this large in debt in terms od world GDP

Wonderful presentation Raoul. I have been looking forward to learning more about your process for a long time now. Which ISM number are you using? Manufacturing, non-manufacturing, some sort of composite?

Great presentation Raoul! You stated that the US is the most indebted country as a % of the worlds GDP, which is the highest ever recorded? Maybe I'm confused, What about Japan, Greece, Italy, Portugal, etc? Can you clarify? Thanks

Where can I generate these charts myself?

ISM crossed below 46 in 1951, 1952, 1956, and 1967 without "producing" a recession. Raoul's chart begins in 1968 and, therefore, misses all of those "deviant" events. There were 11 recessions between 1948 and 2015, but 4 of those recessions were not preceded by a piercing of 46 on ISM. Raoul, please explain that?

Watched it again, and this is probably as good as it gets. Kudos, Raoul!

Really good..Many thanks! I don't think having them do a monthly appearance would be productive. I would take quality over quantity any day when it comes to material like this.

You actually mention why the recession won't happen - (21 min left) Where you say the recession didn't happen in the 90's due to Greenspan's excessive monetary policy - how can you expect Yellen to not put forward another excessive monetary policy (or 10 for that matter) to prevent recession?

You are looking at ISM like you were looking at the housing data pre 2007. What's wrong with the picture? 1 - not complete data. 2 - we are not a manufacturing economy anymore (US). History only rhymes - it does not repeat itself. We are in the midst of a huge shift on how we live our lives and you are missing puzzles to complete the picture.

I echo other comments on here re sources of data. I don't have Bloomberg either, so how about a new section for the RV website listing publically accessible sources of data? Over time it would form a great library! Just a suggestion...

Great presentation. I much prefer the idea of nuances rather than 'perfect fit'. In the end we are making bets on probability. My bet is .gov is going to war and/or print to oblivion.

Nice job Raoul. Keeping it simple for something this complex is no easy feat. Street loves to turn things into science so it can be modeled and turned into spreadsheets & algos. Art & creativity in investing/ trading is still rewarding for those willing to put in the time.

Thx for the lesson.

RAOUL it seems to me the ISM/GDP relationship should become negatively correlated with the GDPs of the Indian Ocean countries. Demographics should drive it that way. I wish I knew how to chart that theory!

raoul will go down in history as a god!!!!!!

Hey Raoul-----any "tools" you recommend to overlay the ISM and the other charts? I'm not an institutional investor, but might be someone who belongs in an institution. Thx.

Right on... Business is a very opportunistic world with its cyclicality. Bigger the bubble, Enormous the opportunity becomes.

Thanks Raoul, I'm a big fan of RV and your work. I think this analysis is fantastic but doesn't back your bear case. By your own analysis waves it looks like short term/CESI going higher and ISM has bounced/unclear. So short term bullish, medium term neutral. In terms of the secular cycle using the 10y equity return seems to suggest further equity outperformance is on the cards. Yes there is a lot of debt, but your debt cycle doesn't have enough history to have predictive power. To me your case is based on a theory of high debt/GDP being a problem rather than anything you can back up with cycle analysis. Have you looked at Fed senior loan officer survey? I think that is a useful addition as an indicator to the ISM and does seem to flag some problems. Tom

Anyone know where you can get access to up to date CESI data without having to fork out for a bloomberg terminal?? I'm a subscriber to a weekly market report but it only gives you a 5 year chart for the CESI.

Like others, I am surprised at the thumbs down vote. A gladiator could not have defended his position better. I guess the thumbs downs may mean that they disagree with the premise. If a person giving the thumbs down would wish to indicate her/his views in the comments, it would be helpful to me.

Re: Dennis R. 6/21/16: Logic cannot be used to predict the future. In fact logic cannot be used to predict that there will be a future. If you wish to use reason, however, to assign probabilities to possible future outcomes, history should not be ignored.

Thanks for taking the time to do this presentation. I had a feeling before hand I would want to take notes and you did not disappoint. Mark H.

That was so useful ! Thanks!

Raoul without coming off jerky, you were extremely bullish on the US Dollar and predicted a huge bull run early 2016, obviously the $ has weakened. Do u still have a bullish view on the greenback?

Dear Professor Pal: Awesome! Please write the book. Thanks for your investment of time, money and affection creating RealVision TV with Grant and all the others. Looking forward to the next time. You bring Order to Chaos and that is a special gift.

Thank you Raoul! I very much enjoyed your presentation. Love those charts as they are easy to understand.

Awesome Raoul! This is one of the most essential videos to watch!

Brilliant ! Thank you Raoul

And now.., could we perhaps get to watch Raoul and Grant discuss their respective analysis' impact on the others? How are the cycles affected by these last exceptional years and how are these exceptional years affecting the cycles. Would love to watch that.

demographics, productivity and debt boost. for me these drive real growth. The West is on the wrong aside of all of these now. Demographics worked with boomers, no longer. Productivity is not improving. and we pumped up with debt so much that we cant take anymore.

Great piece 'Raol' ;)

Thank you Raoul! If you’re trying to get more likes than Grant don't let him burn the whole graphic arts budget next time :-)

@raoul Thank you!

Thank you Raoul! This is very good!

great stuff ..thanks... it did look to me that the ism seemed to be more of leading indicator on the way up but a lagging indicator on the way down...is this accurate

Thanks Raoul! Great presentation. Simple, clear and concise. I would love to hear how the unprecedented roll of somewhat cooperative central banks in attempting to control various assets prices like gold, oil and currencies plays in.

Not sure about the comments requesting updates... Raoul, you just taught us how to come up with our own updates. This was very, very helpful. Thank you for teaching me how to think.

Just as reminder all, my name is spelled Raoul. We've had Rao, Raul and a few others but not Ru Paul yet! Hilarious! But thanks for the feed back all.

Rao No need for a book Rao. This was a succinct and sufficient explanation of the explanatory and predictive powers of cycles... Thank you.

There is no such thing as a CT Economic Surprises Index. There is no logical reason to assume the the events of the past a predictors of the future events.

Awesome content Raoul! As Steve Jobs once said, "Anyone can make something complicated, but it takes a genius to make something simple".

Proper analysis. This is why you join Real Vision. For facts, reality checks open discussion about probable outcomes and out of the box ideas. Rubber Stamp this Vid, hang it in the hall of fame and visit the gallery once a quarter to remind yourself of whats important in the big picture.

Awesome! Somebody who truly is passionate about what his mission is and making it simple for all of us to understand. Cheers

Rauol this was a cogent and well delivered presentation, thank you. The central planners worldwide are printing so much money that markets are being short-circuited and price discovery for assets is warped as well. Do you believe this will impair the effectiveness of the ISM index in the short-term as a predictive tool? In the long-term I think the markets will have to correct.

That was excellent, Rao! I really appreciate that you stay with the audience and present your ideas so clearly. And it's so insane, of course, that the business cycle isn't acknowledged in the antiquated economic theories that the priests of the financial temples use. It must be an intentional blindness, don't you think? I do. At some level, you don't build up a few hundred trillion dollars in total global debt at an exponential rate since the early 1970's without focusing on a happy story about expanding growth that never turns seriously down. It's the nature of ponzi psychology - always floating upward into a happy dream beyond financial gravity. As Satyajit Das pointed out, though, financial gravity can't be defied any more than gravity can be defied. I'm watching the ISM. Thanks so much!

Currently 13 people living under a rock on Mars -must be to give this presentation a 'thumbs down' (or maybe they live in the Southern hemisphere and the thumbs are inverted down there) An extremely valuable lesson in trend analysis - thank you BIG TIME Raoul

This is the framework i was taught and it works superbly. great work mr pal.

Please write that book Raoul!

Raoul, can't thank you enough! Love your clear thought process supported by historical data. Please move to the States and run for President!!!

Excellent could not praise this enough. I would have paid the $365 for this alone. But don't put the subscription up lol !!!! I was skeptical of RV when I first subscribed but I can say I will remain a subscriber indefinitely as long as presentations like this continue, Great job well done and thank you.

Great presentation. Understandable and practical. It had some similarities with Ray Dalio's famed model but better examples and more useful. I liked the use of CESI for shorter term confirmations. If only central bankers were open minded enough to consider adding this to their tools. Thank you.

I only wonder - are my savings safe with my custodian?

A nod to the Austrian school. The Bloomberg View + Larry Summers + Henry Blodget crowd is going to continue to panic. I love it.

Excellent presentation and framework for macro-investment analysis. Your agenda is to predict the best markets, sectors, investments, and time frames. You measure your success by real world outcomes. You share your knowledge. Thanks. Political economist in universities and think tanks may have different agendas. Economist are trying to make a living in the game of political economy. How can I get published, who will fund my research, when can I get tenure? Politicians need economist to support their agendas. Who will fund my next election, which position will increase my power, am I really just a paid lobbyist? Business, especially Wall Street, is willing to fund economist and think tanks to get any and all advantages - for and against clients - that will make more, more, more money. If you start with agendas, it makes more sense. Nietzsche - Human, All To Human.

Sometimes we over-complicate, by worrying about everything every month. Thanks for showing a way to chart the investment seas with fewer instruments!

Clear, elegant presentation...Raoul is the best!!

Fantastic video from Raoul as always. Unbelievable Keynesians still ignore the business cycle or think they can eliminate it...I accidentally hit the down thumb instead of the up thumb so deduct a down and add an up!

Great stuff Raoul - keep these nuggets coming!

Thank you Raoul. I have been a Real Vision member since day one, and it has been more than I ever hoped it would be. On top of that, it keeps getting better.

Thank You Raoul and thank you Milton, you little curator you, for green lighting this video! I'm not sure many will realize the $ value of this proprietary analysis that Raoul just shared with everyone. Not many are ever this generous with their life's work. The Big Ugly has a VERY big heart. Your generosity Raoul is duly noted.

Great presentation. It seems to make a lot of sense. Theory and how stuff actually works, has always been worlds apart in my view. Many thanks.

Doesnt reporting frequency of ISM lag asset price data series?

How good is ISM as an indicator in a more service orientated economy vs manuf

I agree with the commenter(s) who are looking for Raoul to comment on the role of central banks in your framework. Economy is slowing and more stimulus (than ever) will be required to keep things going. But, that's what they're going to do, no?

You will never get this information on CNBC, FOX WJ Thanks For Sharing

Do you account for monetary policy/fiscal policy regimes delaying the cycle in either ISM or CESI? For example if there's infrastructure QE in the US, that would affect ISM, but debt would be much higher. If so is there another indicator you check to counterbalance this beside velocity of money?

excellent

http://www.plata.com.mx/mplata/articulos/articlesFilt.asp?fiidarticulo=291

Great video, not really a global macro guy myself, but it is great to see the logical framework in which your set your forecasting around. Again, great video. Cheers.

Incredible. Just absolutely wonderful. If I may, I'd love to see Grant & Raoul interview one another once per month. RVTV has been a great add for me.

Wonderful and thanks for putting today's world into context as the scientists send us down the rabbit hole!

Very interesting framework Raoul. What would also be helpful is very brief periodic updates where you highlight notable changes in ISM or CESI and what that may portend for the economic and market outlook.

This is simple and makes perfect sense. Not a laser but not intended to be one. Rather than trying to time the perfect wave, a way to stay on the right side of the tide. So, why don't more people pay attention to this?

Big fat THANK YOU, Raoul!!!!!!

Truly AWESOME will watch over and over. Give me the idea that price prediction isn't goal but trend and trend changes is. So what goes with Bitcoin? Gold? The hunt is on!

brilliant, elegant, clear. Markets are behavioral.

Thank you Raoul, great piece. I have often used the ISM numbers to anticipate the markets direction I just never put it in the bigger overall framework.

I would love to here from someone who thinks the current period is analogous to the mid 90's. I'm skeptical but haven't thought through the other side of the argument in depth.

this economy malarkey is too complicated raul, what I want to know is much more important, if we qualify tonight, cant we beat the germans at penalties?

Fantastic lesson in real life economics Raoul - thank you so much!

Absolutely invaluable. Instant favorite. Thank you for sharing your framework in such a detail with us!

For clarity, I use only the ISM Manufacturing Index as it has the longest history and still works perfect.

The ISM is that a composite of services and manufacturing or just the ISM Mfg? Thanks

Instant classic! Thanks, Raoul.

Thank you Rauol for sharing a sample of how you analyse the markets, making it educational and simple of enough to understand. Please make more videos like this.

That was AWESOME!!! Thanks RVTV and Raoul! Would be nice to have the founders doing personal updates or presentation more often.