Triffin’s Dilemma

Published on
December 15th, 2014
26 minutes

Triffin’s Dilemma

Presentations ·
Featuring Julian Brigden

Published on: December 15th, 2014 • Duration: 26 minutes

What will a stronger dollar mean for commodities and emerging markets? Is the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency under threat? Julian Brigden, President of Macro Intelligence 2 Partners, explains his theory of a global dollar supply shortage, and Triffin's Dilemma. In this highly illuminating presentation, Julian walks us through the cascading effects that a continuation of the dollar's recent strength could cause.


  • my
    markettaker y.
    26 July 2018 @ 21:39
    like five or six years early, eh? check out the EEM, EMB etc. charts. May have been nice trades for a little while but the major trends Julian talks of didn't happen, did they?
  • MS
    Matt S.
    30 December 2016 @ 22:20
    Once again, without an RX time stamp, this is useless.
  • RA
    Robert A.
    20 November 2016 @ 00:53
    One of the best features of RV is the "watch again", IMO. Just rewatched this one and got more out of it this time. Throughout Financial history I note that some "clever" product seems to be created that finds "current" speculative demand, which leads to a plethora of copy cat product to capture the wave of speculation.....and then...the Great Unwind occurs. Lambs to slaughter. I cannot believe how many EM debt funds and ETFs have suddenly appeared in the last 6 years, many with "all star" sponsors. What, no EM debt appetite for the last 50 years? Why now? Even bought some myself---held for a few months---and then asked myself why am I doing this----is the yield pick up really worth the risk that I don't understand? I bit because Pimco and Doubleline marketed it...and the performance was great.....and everybody was doing it---doing it. Well the "herd" is still doing it, but little ole me with the help of RV has left the building. You?
  • SC
    Shashank C.
    12 September 2015 @ 14:00
    Monty - too late a response but Mark Hart was talking about a similar thing in the Master Class video and suggested buying out of money puts as a way to play currency vol.
  • NN
    Ninh N.
    28 March 2015 @ 18:37
    I don't even know how one can *thumbs down* this video. Would double thumbs up if I could.
  • JO
    Johnny O.
    3 February 2015 @ 08:12
    Wish I had watched this betore SGD adjusted south.
  • BM
    Barry M.
    24 January 2015 @ 05:58
    I am dumb money desperately trying to become smart money, this presentation, along with all the others, gives me some hope. Also, I second Monty, how can a small investor play the currency volatility
  • ML
    Monty L.
    18 January 2015 @ 13:32
    Great Presentation. I will implement some of these trade ideas. Is there any way for the small individual investor to get in on the USDCHY Vol trade? I'll be looking for a way to play that one.
  • DB
    Duncan B.
    11 January 2015 @ 19:19
    It is both pathetic and ridiculous that we have to base our investing decisions on second-guessing what The Fed will do next. The sooner we get back to a non-debt-based system the better.
  • CR
    Chris R.
    8 January 2015 @ 11:50
    More from this man asap please!
  • JD
    John D.
    7 January 2015 @ 12:34
    Graphical analysis + insightful commentary = very powerful.
  • ac
    adam c.
    5 January 2015 @ 00:29
    We need more of this type of analysis. I like the take on SGD too. That's a great call.
  • FC
    Frederick C.
    24 December 2014 @ 14:50
    Thinking ahead: could it get so ugly that the IMF with SDRs or China with their gold reserves attempt to accelerate the move away from the US $ as the reserve currency?
  • RG
    Ryan G.
    22 December 2014 @ 21:17
    Brilliant presentation. Completely overlooked by much of the mainstream line of thinking. Strong data, strong dollar=lower ylds in UST, and the talking heads will be flabbergasted.
  • LS
    Leigh S.
    21 December 2014 @ 09:37
    Already seeing requested to switch Cary trade borrowings from usd to yen.
  • MC
    Michael C.
    19 December 2014 @ 03:27
    Great set of views drawn from history. Not sure he will be very popular in Singapore.
  • CH
    Colin H.
    17 December 2014 @ 19:42
    Liked all the trade ideas. Especially long volatility. Volatility is mean reverting so seems like a good bet whatever policy makers do. I'm too small to put it on but great stuff.
  • RO
    Robert O.
    17 December 2014 @ 04:27
    How will the China, Russia, etc move away from using the US dollar in world trade affect the world's need for US dollars? Could China use its dollar reserves to build a large stake in the EM assets?
  • KA
    Kelly A.
    16 December 2014 @ 14:57
    My investment in RVtv has been more than paid for from the return on the investments i made as a result. As others wrote, greater clarity on specific vehicles, bulleted lists would make it easier. Thx
  • JA
    Jack A.
    16 December 2014 @ 10:54
    It will be interesting to track the U.S. current account now that shale is looking uneconomic at the current oil price. Might temper this scenario somewhat. Not enough to change it though, I suspect.
  • PH
    Philip H.
    16 December 2014 @ 07:49
    One of the most impressve presentations I've seen. Had to watch it twice and will watch it again.
  • CT
    Craig T.
    16 December 2014 @ 05:53
    Could the presenters list a few bullet points at the end, so we can be sure to get the stock, index or ETF names right? Also hints like "short Yuan, long USD". Great info!
  • SL
    Steven L.
    16 December 2014 @ 03:49
    Well done! The only addition I would request is to get some idea of what a retail investor can do with their money. I understand that I should get out of EM but not what I should get into.
  • JC
    Joel C.
    16 December 2014 @ 02:41
    hope everyone enjoys their Christmas.. seems like its going to be a rough year in 2015.. but i feel well armed with RVTV. keep the momentum going!
  • JS
    John S.
    15 December 2014 @ 23:39
    Outstanding! Enough said...
  • BL
    Bruce L.
    15 December 2014 @ 22:55
    Brilliant. Answers a couple of questions I have been asking for 2 years.
  • LT
    Luc T.
    15 December 2014 @ 22:36
    Perfect addition to Raoul Pal's US $ exposé of last week. Very in depth analysis with practical investment advice of both authors. This is the real Real Vision I was hoping for!
  • BB
    Brian B.
    15 December 2014 @ 20:58
    It is important to realize that THIS is the correct narrative. It's as if Real Vision is giving away the winning horse prior to the Kentucky Derby. The value of this info is incredible. Well done!
  • DY
    Darrel Y.
    15 December 2014 @ 19:51
    Terrific presentation, however it is a week old.
  • PW
    Phil W.
    15 December 2014 @ 16:34
    Very well done! give me more of the same Thanks