An artificially stimulated U.S. economy still emerging from the shock of the COVID-19 pandemic now faces accelerating inflation, constrained supply chains, and growing fear of recession. There remains some hope the Federal Reserve won’t forsake the “full employment” aspect of its mandate and will continue to pursue “wealth effects” policies in general as it steps up its battle against inflation. The reality is the central bank may be forced to abandon those principles. And, if that becomes the case, there will be economic fallout. As various data points suggest growth is starting to slow, Christian Alexander of MacroLink welcomes Teddy Vallee of Pervalle Global and Eric Basmajian of EPB Macro Research to talk about the probability of a recession in the coming year. The trio also discusses the paralyzed legislative process in the U.S., the severe inefficiencies afflicting economic productivity, the wider impact of China’s “Zero COVID” policy, and escalating geopolitical tensions. If the path ahead seems ominous, a conversation like this will shed light. Recorded on May 2, 2022.