“The Fed Has Everything Backward”

Real Vision Essential ·
Featuring Jeffrey Snider and Maggie Lake

Published on: March 17th, 2022 • Duration: 62 minutes

The Federal Open Market Committee did what it said it would do with its first rate hike in three years, boosting the federal funds target range by 25 basis points. And the market is still pricing in a total of seven such moves in 2022. The Federal Reserve and Chair Jerome Powell are squarely focused on inflation, as the domestic political situation demands. But the Treasury yield curve and the Eurodollar futures curve both suggest the central bank may have its eyes on the wrong ball. As Jeff Snider notes, “The Fed is always behind the curve.” Snider, head of global research at Alhambra Investments, suggests a rising and already high and substantial probability of a slowdown, if not a recession, is the main threat right now. “The disinflationary downside case,” he tells Real Vision’s Maggie Lake, “has been building for a year now.” Growth was already slowing before the effects of a global supply shock took hold. And China’s economy is in such a state that authorities there are taking extraordinary steps to ensure “stability.” Now, war in Eastern Europe is magnifying pre-existing problems. On top of all that, the Fed continues to operate with a major blind spot: a lack of quality collateral. As Snider puts it, what we need is a total system reset. And such a reset could very well be built around the blockchain’s potential to more efficiently match money supply with money demand. Recorded March 16, 2022.