Comments
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PSGreat to put a face to a name When a guy specialised in dumpster diving for value names - I cant believe people get upset about a miss here or there. Take one of five of Kuppy's trades that may actually fit your preferences - I hate Mongolia and Shipping but Aimia was an excellent trade Find cheap assets - buy em - wait Better than listening to some narrative about 'charts' or 'leadership' or some other narrative focused garbage.
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JMLies regarding Mongolian Mining. Mongolian Mining has NET Debt (including its CSPs, but excluding its Perps)/EBITDA of 2.8x....how can u claim it trades at 1 or 1/2x cash flow? Shame on you small cap pumper. This might be cheap if the catalysts come in but the numbers and returns are nowhere near accurate.
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CTFlying under the algos radar makes sense to me. Diversification is nearly impossible buying "me too" funds and high PE tech and internet stocks. Now may be the right time to bargain hunt among the algo wreckage.
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MKHe's so full of it... couldn't watch the whole thing.
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MMExcellent interview with a lot of great informations.
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HBBuy the dip as a hedge fund strategy. Never seen that before. Maybe I left the industry too long ago.
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CSKnowing the Chinese and Chinese stocks, I doubt the risk/reward prospects for 0975. If its such a great buy, how come management havent gone private (its massively down)? How about the myriad of potential Chinese insiders/connected interests that arent buying? Did they ever pay dividends? I wouldnt risk much on it.
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MHKupperman has been making a bull case for Mongolia for a long time. I think his thesis is analytically attractive, and I'm sure we'll look back in 2040 and value his insight. However, his thesis hasn't worked at all since 2012 or so. Paraphrasing Howard Marks, being early is effectively indistinguishable from being wrong. Given the political situation in Mongolia and the economic situation in China, I'm not aware of any potential catalyst that changes that reality. If Kupperman knows of one, I didn't hear him share it in the interview. I'd caution anyone who gets excited about Mongolia from this interview to chart Kupperman's company, Mongolia Growth Group (YAK), over the past five years. I don't mean to criticize, because I thought it was a good idea and we all have losses. He's an entrepreneur hustling to make something happen, and I wish him the best. Yet the reality is I'd take the odds at a rigged online casino over the odds that any aspect of his Mongolia thesis works in the near future.
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NHCan’t get the numbers to add up based on H1 2018 financials. #’s don’t add up.... H1 2018 Debt $443mn (ignoring deferred tax liability) Cash at h1 2018 $20m. Net debt $420mn Ebitda $180mn (h2 2017 + h1 2018) Capex $35mn Market Cap $220mn EV (net debt + market cap) = $640mn excluding tax liability. FCF (EBITDA - capex, ignore WC) = $150m EV / FCF = 4x EV / EBITDA = 3x Market cap / FCF = 1.5x
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WBGreat stuff. I watch each interview video as another opportunity to learn a lot about something that’s not my space yet. Much to learn here. For me it’s not about his specific investments but rather his thought process and logic behind them. Lots of geniuses on RealVision.
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tkgreat interview, bring him back!
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VCEnjoyed it, but what I’m hearing is that discretionary traders/investors are getting squeeEd out into more and more niche markets... which in turn will crowd these spaces, lower profits with an eventual takeover of machines. Of course, the machines are simply tools leveraged by fewer and fewer humans. If anyone disagrees with my assessment please do reply comment an opposing view.
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SSFor me, the interview was more about ideas to follow certain opportunities then just buying Mongolian coal. How to identify what's coming for a potential yet nibble positive outcome. Also thinking about "selling puts" to pickup discount on building a position. Harris is well spoken yet I felt humble to say it doesn't always work out. I always try to learn something and just did. Thx.
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SLRecognized the name, been reading his blog for over a year... it’s insightful (and free). Good commentary and unique ideas/perspective. Thank you Real Vision, I think I may have requested this interview with Kuppy.
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DRKuppy is great. He does real fundamental research (he travels to Mongolia etc.), speaks and writes in plain language, and doesn't follow any crowd. He publishes his theses on his blog - Adventures in Capitalism - to anyone who cares to follow. I do, and when I see a new post I stop what I'm doing and read it. Would be happy to see more of him on RV.
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RSWhere, I can't see? here, diagonally. retty sneaky sis!
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M.Hey folks - I bet you loved this interview. Make sure you check out Harris's blog at www.adventuresincapitalism.com
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myMilton can we make Kuppy an RV regular please?
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PCReally enjoyed the interview & hearing how Harris approaches the market. So Harris likes 'bottomed-out' markets with good fundamentals... i'd like to know what he thinks about uranium miners. RealVision has had some interviews with Leigh Goehring, Adam Rodman & Raoul all excited by this idea over the next 5 years.
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DSAlgos can help create mini to maxi-bubbles. Maybe a good way to play around a current position. DLS
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RMInteresting idea on 975HK (Mongolian Mining Corp). It has been in a down trend since 2012 and still is. The only rally was out of the Feb 16 general mkt bottom (and Oct copper recovery). The downtrend has slowed since late 2016 however is still in place. Given global and China growth is slowing, the downtrend will probably continue and the downside moves will be substantial if the general market sells off hard (per Jan16). That will be the time to buy.
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EFWhat a fantastic interview. I’m definitely going to read / subscribe to that blog. I could definitely have listened to Harris for an hour or more.
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WMExcellent! Microcap investing is one of the few areas where individual investors can have a big advantage over institutions and computers - mainly because of the lack of liquidity. The little guy can build a significant position without moving the price a lot etc. But be prepared for (and ideally take advantage of) really crazy price moves...that often are just short term noise... Harris clearly does excellent in depth research of his chosen companies - and that's really essential. He's one of the few investors who actually embraces averaging down - which most investors avoid (even using stop losses to do the opposite of what Harris does). It takes a lot of guts to do what he does ... most investors would get too rattled and nervous to do this. but for those that can, there's clearly a lot of potential opportunity.
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TRExcellent
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APLearned a ton. Very open and good vibes. Loved how he moved from "I'm primarily interested in US liquid companies" to a rocking thesis on a distressed Mongolian mining company.
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JHhere's his blog, he's a great writer - http://adventuresincapitalism.com/
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JVInteresting interview. Would have been even more helpful to talk about specific examples of themes discussed (e.g. LNG shippers).
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MMSmart guy has a discipline and it makes money for him. Nice.
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NvVery interesting. Great job