The Bond Volatility Puzzle

Published on
March 6th, 2019
31 minutes

The Bond Volatility Puzzle

Skin In The Game ·
Featuring Michael Purves

Published on: March 6th, 2019 • Duration: 31 minutes

Michael Purves, chief global strategist for Weeden & Co., speaks with Brian Price about the surprising lack of volatility in the U.S. Treasury market. Purves, who is a regular guest on "Trade Ideas," relishes the opportunity to delve into this complex topic. He also provides insight into his performance expectations for the U.S., and examines specific corners of the market that investors need to pay closer attention to in 2019. Filmed on February 25, 2019 in New York.


  • JB
    Jake B.
    13 March 2019 @ 09:08
    He lost me at “year end target for the S&P”.
    • PC
      Philip C.
      15 June 2019 @ 07:21
  • JC
    Joe C.
    7 March 2019 @ 13:41
    So tired of hearing “there is no inflation.” When I look at equity market levels I don’t understand this repeated argument. Just because there’s no inflation on some oversimplified ancient metric doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist.
    • WS
      William S.
      8 March 2019 @ 02:23
      Yep. Inflation is rampant. Real estate. Food. Real assets. I'm 31, virtually no debt, good job. Couldn't buy a home and start a family if I cut all discretionary spending to 0. Same location as my father, making about 5k more a year then when he was my age (inflation adjusted much less) with higher education...yep, no way I can start a family. 65% of my income towards mortgage costs? Poverty. I'd be cruel to make a baby and tell my son or daughter I can't provide them with X because "it's all going to the bank".
    • WS
      William S.
      8 March 2019 @ 02:29
      "I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies ... If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." Jefferson "Gold is money, all else is credit" JP Morgan. "When a man is paid in credit and lives by credit, he is a slave" Me "Gold standard or bust" Me
    • DS
      David S.
      9 March 2019 @ 22:10
      Will S. - Keep saving and wait for the next recession. Good Luck. DLS
  • RI
    R I.
    9 March 2019 @ 13:13
    Hawkish ECB? Time to revise the thesis after the Draghi show last week.
  • BB
    Bullionaire B.
    8 March 2019 @ 01:46
    Would be nice to actually hear one of these RV experts talk about the effects of allowing central banks to more easily control down interest rate futures, FX vol, and commodity prices via trading in our most critical commodity markets i.e. COMEX / NYMEX. Surely such facts recently extended and now ongoing for years show a lot more is happening behind the scenes than any guest has mentioned to date -
  • JJ
    Josh J.
    8 March 2019 @ 01:27
    RV - Please interview Michael Purves every month. Awesome interview and v valuable!
  • TR
    Travis R.
    6 March 2019 @ 21:48
    Off Topic. Anybody notice that comments appear in internet search engines? Check out older videos and copy paste a comment into your preferred search it will link back to RV.
    • M.
      Milton .. | Founder
      7 March 2019 @ 10:19
      Yep, with the new interface, we transitioned from the old interface where everything was locked and only subscribers or trialists could view the video to one where pages are accessible by everyone, including search engines caching data from these pages. Of course, viewing videos still requires an active account for the most part.
  • HJ
    Harry J.
    6 March 2019 @ 22:26
    Really where does the ten year go?
  • BP
    Bryce P.
    6 March 2019 @ 18:44
    This interview seemed to be all over the place. Did not enjoy.
  • DP
    David P.
    6 March 2019 @ 16:30
    Good interview..Though why is volatility low in bonds? Going really high level. We have a few dozen central bankers / individuals across 4 central banks controlling the entire yield curve in every major currency...When a market is that small (in terms of participants) with near complete agreement as to where the cost of money should be in every currency, why trade? He did hit on equity vol briefly...Within 5 years people will be amazed that VIX was ever over 10 for extended periods of time...Asset allocation is simply a matter of guessing where fewer than 50 people worldwide have already determined what asset returns will be...We will soon live in a world with universal basic income, etc. for those with no assets and pre-determined returns for every major asset class for those with assets...All determined by no more than several dozen people worldwide...Hayek would be surprised...Or maybe not