The Fat Pitch: Inefficient Markets and the Future of Sports Gambling

Published on
August 20th, 2019
43 minutes

The Fat Pitch: Inefficient Markets and the Future of Sports Gambling

Skin In The Game ·
Featuring Michael Schwimer

Published on: August 20th, 2019 • Duration: 43 minutes

Michael Schwimer, CEO and founder of Big League Advance and Jambos Picks, built his first company by combining sports analytics and investing. Now he's setting his sights on outsmarting Las Vegas. In a world where 2% and 20% fee structures are in jeopardy, this interview examines how Schwimer was able to build his most recent fund at 3% and 30%. His strategy relies on arbitraging the inefficiency of niche markets - using advanced analytics to invest in minor league baseball players, attempting to beat Vegas oddsmakers, and identifying other opportunities in the business of sports and sports gambling. Filmed on August 15, 2019 in New York.



  • CB
    Colin B.
    24 November 2019 @ 17:41
  • MK
    Matthew K.
    20 September 2019 @ 23:03
    If they are as good as they claim to be, they will move lines before their subscribers can invest, hence mitigating the value they believe they are providing. As smart as I’m sure they are, I would never recommend buying sports betting picks to anyone.
    • DD
      Dmitry D.
      21 September 2019 @ 10:31
      I am following their service for fun and often get better odds than their reference value even hours/days after publication. Until they are really mainstream, they won't move the odds that much.
    • MK
      Matthew K.
      24 September 2019 @ 05:42
      Exactly what I meant by “if they are good”. There may be some short term dislocations to capitalize on, but in the long run, buying sports betting picks from anyone is not a winning strategy. The only thing unique about them is their effort to offer the payback, but I’d be dubious that payout is easy to trigger
    • MK
      Matthew K.
      24 September 2019 @ 05:45
      More importantly to your point, they are losing this far in NFL so getting better numbers than they offer probably means they are going against sharper money that is performing better.
    • MK
      Matthew K.
      24 September 2019 @ 05:47
      And moving the odds AT ALL can kill their edge. It’s a very fine line profiting from sports betting. Either you’re beating (or exploiting dislocations from) closing numbers or you’re losing.
  • DD
    Dmitry D.
    21 September 2019 @ 11:07
    Really awesome interview, what a guy Michael is, his enthusiasm and energy are just contagious. Seen it twice now and I'm as pumped after the second time as I was after the first. Believe in yourself, believe in what you are doing and stay on the grind. All these skeptics really make laugh
  • TS
    Theodoros S.
    20 August 2019 @ 19:35
    Gambling will always be gambling, trading will always be trading and investing is investing. However everything and everyone has something to tell and should be considered by a good listener.
    • DD
      Dmitry D.
      21 September 2019 @ 10:53
      Er... what? Even for a comments section this was one of the most nonsensical statements I have seen in a long time. Comments will always be comments, I suppose...
  • JA
    Jeff A.
    27 August 2019 @ 15:33
    When you guys are building up models, how much do you rely on AI/Machine Learning vs building up the models and knowing what's in them? There is so much talk about AI/Machine Learning beating out traditional modeling and curious where you guys are on this?
  • ml
    michael l.
    24 August 2019 @ 19:34
    Very, very interesting insights.
  • PU
    Peter U.
    20 August 2019 @ 17:00
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      20 August 2019 @ 17:05
      Thanks for breaking the silence Peter
    • tr
      tom r.
      24 August 2019 @ 19:31
      A brilliant young man who reminds me of Moe Berg. Rare person indeed. Loved it.
  • CB
    Clifford B.
    24 August 2019 @ 00:24
    Iteresting stuff.
  • SS
    Steven S.
    20 August 2019 @ 18:02
    Rome is burning and we get 'the future of sports gambling'.....when's Raul back? ;)
    • LW
      Luke W.
      21 August 2019 @ 03:39
      If Rome is burning you should be happy for some uncorrelated returns, which is what this guy is pitching.
    • RS
      Ryan S.
      23 August 2019 @ 03:33
      Bread and circuses! :)
  • MV
    Mark V.
    20 August 2019 @ 23:59
    Do you have to be domiciled in the US to be a subscriber to Jambopicks?
    • MS
      Michael S.
      21 August 2019 @ 15:48
      Anyone over the age of 21 can sign up from anywhere! See below for our disclaimer posted on our website that should give some addition info: JAMBOS recommendations are solely for information purposes. The information provided by JAMBOS is for general information and entertainment purposes only. Sports wagering may be deemed an illegal activity in some countries, states and local jurisdictions. You should make your own inquiry into the legality of participating in any activities related to sports wagering. JAMBOS does not endorse, encourage, or take responsibility for, any illegal gambling. If you wish to use Package recommendations for wagering, you must use legal methods and ensure that you are doing so in a jurisdiction where wagering is legal. JAMBOSPICKS.COM IS NOT A SPORTS BETTING SITE, nor does JAMBOSPICKS.COM take bets or make bets. If you intend to subscribe to JAMBOSPICKS.COM as part of your own strategy to place legal wagers on sporting events, you need to ensure that you only engage in legal activities, and only place wagers in a legal manner with properly licensed and authorized sports book operations.
    • RS
      Ryan S.
      23 August 2019 @ 03:32
      For International Subscribers, the challenging would be getting access to markets at the same prices as the US bookmakers. I'm in Aus, so I imaging our local Bookmakers (though there's a lot, us Aussie's love a mad punt!) prices would have a larger spread and differ widely compared to the Vegas benchmarks you're using. Would that be a reasonable assumption for less liquid books?
  • SP
    Steve P.
    22 August 2019 @ 23:54
    A couple years before their Algos get bought out by casinos but it’s a good opportunity. Better than many trade ideas that just screenshot call write options at the top and put write options at the bottom as if that’s an actual return...if you write a deep anything OTM your returns will show “80%” etc which means it’s 80% of the premium before expiration. Lots of public scamming and fraud. This approach is good to any market.
  • RI
    R I.
    21 August 2019 @ 19:02
    News flash: sports betting is still largely illegal in the USA.
    • SP
      Steve P.
      22 August 2019 @ 23:44
      News Flash : Supreme Court ok’ed states rights to choose what’s legal or not about sports betting
  • NR
    Nelson R.
    22 August 2019 @ 03:02
    Fantastic success story. Good for him.
  • PG
    Philippe G.
    21 August 2019 @ 17:53
    Great, unique story! Loved it!
  • TM
    The-First-James M.
    21 August 2019 @ 10:53
    This was actually a lot more interesting than I expected, plus I'm a Brit with zero understanding of Baseball...
  • NP
    Nick P.
    21 August 2019 @ 03:27
    These guys should open up in Australia, massive market waiting for this type of service.
  • KC
    Kenneth C.
    21 August 2019 @ 03:03
    this felt like I was watching a commercial
  • JW
    Joel W.
    20 August 2019 @ 20:32
    In Michael’s vision of the future of sports broadcasting, the talking heads will have stats just like the players. Why can we not have that, today, for our financial talking heads (maybe there would be none left...)? I think a pilot program for guests on RV’s Trade Ideas is appropriate. Now how do I invest in that?
  • JT
    Jimmy T.
    20 August 2019 @ 19:08
    Fantastic! Love the sports content. Fascinating.
  • LJ
    Lucas J.
    20 August 2019 @ 18:08
    This was a great. Loved the minor league angle, would also think it would be great for golf too as he mentioned. Though they will have to change the formula when the ball gets rolled back in a few years and bomb and gouge goes away. As for their picks service I feel like the sports books will be on their picks and move the lines as they become more successful. Also, if it is a successful as he portrays it I can imagine the sports books paying these guys to be advisors. I really hope it works, because there is nothing like beating the house.