Comments
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ggExcellent piece. Tend to agree with conclusion, but one caveat. I do not believe the cycle in the USA is over. Valuations are too low. Based on fcf yield you could get in high quality companies. China and USA will reach a trade deal.
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LJMarkets crash(capitalism) Central Bank step in and save(ponzi scheme)
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DSInternet and brick-and-mortar retail stores' sales may be up according to US credit card information, but earnings can still be down. Big discounts started before Thanksgiving and accelerated into the New Year. We will see how the mix ended up in 4Q2018 earnings. How about other parts of the world? DLS
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soWhat's the point of this silly game they're playing? Just a distraction? The guests and their viewpoints are sufficient. No need for this game.
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BVAnother outstanding interview with strong opinions and sound reasoning. If one has a will to do the work and get better at this game then there is a manifesto of market know how spreading across this site. Super stuff and thank you gentlemen.....
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RRIf the guy loses the vertical strategy game -- as here-- and if he in fact, if he makes the absolute worst possible initial tactical move-- as in placing a coin the far right slot instead of in the middle, when he has the first move-- how can we trust his judgment?
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RKVery good one , thank you guys!
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PGVery pleased to see Mr. Lacalle back!
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ACI know this isn't a popular view on here, but.... I just get the feeling that predicting the future (12 months) is a lot more difficult than Daniel makes it appear. I heard no probabilities or the like, perhaps I missed it? There are two types of forecasters: those who are wrong and those who know they are wrong (H. Marks)
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PUexcellent
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HJDaniel, 7% is the number that provides the current yield needed for older retirees to keep living standards and safety values reasonable. Where can one find that level without risking everything?
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bmMusic and connect 4, all we need now is a cooking segment
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JHExcellent stuff - thank you, Daniel. Very interesting (and troubling), and very clearly explained.
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RMDaniel, that was really insightful - a lot to think about. The Bank of Japan seems to have been "successful" with all of its helicopter money shenanigans (bond and ETF purchases), in Europe less so though they seem to have sovereign debt yields cornered for the moment. As Powell does appear to have slightly more backbone, won't the Fed will unleash yet another round and form of QE that will juice equity markets in the US? Is that partially why you are relatively more optimistic on the US equity markets?