Trend Breakouts for 2017- Aspen Trading

Published on
January 26th, 2017
18 minutes

Trend Breakouts for 2017- Aspen Trading

Technical Analysis ·
Featuring Dave Floyd

Published on: January 26th, 2017 • Duration: 18 minutes

As financial markets settle into the New Year, Dave Floyd runs through his expectations for trend action in the key asset classes. Uppermost in mind is whether the dollar will maintain its bullish track, with some question marks already over the US currency this year. Also up for discussion is the dichotomy in the S&P where the uptrend is intact, despite the high valuations and a re-emergence of gold’s rally from 2016. Filmed on January 24, 2017.


  • JD
    Jonathan D.
    27 February 2017 @ 11:14
    Sam S - seems that was the low of the correction. (your sale of NGD)
  • Ov
    Olivier v.
    1 February 2017 @ 10:36
    Eish, good that he specifically mentioned in the technical tutorials that investing/speculating is always a combination of technical, fundamental and quantitative analysis. Hope he didn't add to his position though.
  • SS
    Sam S.
    31 January 2017 @ 13:54
    Question is: did Dave Floyd unwind his positions yesterday, especially after such a long bull - buy discussion all these months? Who can tell us if DEBT will sink NGD? How the hell can such huge production of hard assets lead to NGD failure unless very poor mgmt decisions to sign off on toxic debt? BBEP had millions in cash, billions in ground assets, yet the bankruptcy court in CA allowed them to reorganize at the destruction of the stock (MLP) holders. WTF is wrong with nation?
  • DF
    Dave F. | Contributor
    30 January 2017 @ 23:49
    Yep - NGD has been a disappointment for sure. Too early to know if it can recover.
  • SS
    Sam S.
    30 January 2017 @ 21:32
    I'm gone as NGD tanked today-----wipe out. CEO leaving, cost structure debt---just like the MLP's in early 2016. Stuck like a pig.
  • CJ
    CHRIS J.
    29 January 2017 @ 19:19
    with the past week S&P breaking above the trend line, still see a long position or more correction?
  • TB
    Tad B.
    28 January 2017 @ 21:29
    Im not a trader and, usually, this stuff makes me fall asleep. This guy is good though. I'm getting in to it. Very concise and easily understandable. Mr F. Thankyou.
  • FB
    Frank B.
    28 January 2017 @ 19:52
    I never understood why there is a need for prediction of any move in the market. I learned, at least from experience, that I should not have any biases because my opinion doesn't matter.
  • RK
    Ray K.
    28 January 2017 @ 13:48
    Thanks for your insights Dave, Madjid, Christopher and Kash! Very valuable food for thought.
  • RR
    Raj R.
    28 January 2017 @ 04:40
    Im short EEM primarily because I believe USD is going higher. With fed rising rates and dollar shortage in emerging markets it is hard to short the dollar. Not to mention the Chinese want a lower yuan
  • DF
    Dave F. | Contributor
    27 January 2017 @ 20:49
    Here is another take in markets in general and the current (I would say ongoing) challenge of 'price discovery'. " markets have been finding it very difficult to adjust to this new tone of combative leadership in international affairs; foreign exchange trading is often the sharpest point of the spear, with countless participants operating on different timelines and opinions, motivated to act in different directions … often for uneconomic purposes. In this maelstrom of trading, the guiding principle is that new information gets factored into prices of currencies likely affected by the news .. in some guestimate of net present valuation of its future effect – when the new information gets distributed randomly from the White House through twitter, often contradicting the official positions stated the day before, traders jump in and out of risk reactively. This is devastating for the macro process, whose proponents fancy themselves as good analysts of future price development … using pricing dislocations as opportunities to buy cheap and sell rich; when tweets become executive orders and campaign rhetoric is used as a guide for unilateral trade policy, FX becomes a rollercoaster and you better buckle up. This kind of volatility is better for brokers and traders than “business as usual”, so for purely selfish reasons I prefer it – but the effect that it has on macro sentiment is damaging and that can create outcomes that are even more unpredictable. Still … better than Fed-watching." Dudley Hancox - Morgan Stanley
  • DF
    Dave F. | Contributor
    27 January 2017 @ 19:09
    Vadim - I assume you mean the S&P's? If so, it is likely just a function of a market that is under such scrutiny from a valuation standpoint that making 'quick' headway is real hard. Remember, at current valuation levels, forward returns are measly. I suggest this piece by @johnauthers in the Financial Times regarding valuations as a poor timing tool. Other insights too.
  • vt
    vadim t.
    27 January 2017 @ 17:55
    Dave, one more question. I'm watching on the US market yesterday and today (27.01) and it's literally dead, no movement, no volumes, nothing. And this is after major breakout two days ago, which supposed to be the beginning of the big movement. Any thoughts, explanations? Is it a factor for you besides charts analyzes or you just tend toignore such a stuff.
  • DF
    Dave F. | Contributor
    27 January 2017 @ 16:52
    Great comments/insight by Christopher and Kash. Keep 'em coming folks - great way for robust dialog.
  • AM
    Alonso M.
    27 January 2017 @ 16:41
    Raitis, it's the real interest rate that matters. You can (and often to) have a rising nominal interest rate during a declining real interest rate environment. It happens when CPI moves faster than Federal Reserve's rate hikes. The interesting thing to watch is what happens to the yield curve when the Fed hikes again. Does it result in steepening, flattening, or parallel?
  • CT
    Christopher T.
    27 January 2017 @ 16:33
    10yr vs Bunds spread is converging as rates in Europe rising faster than in the US. Sentiment is at extremes and Euro data keeps surprising to the upside.
  • MY
    Madjid Y.
    27 January 2017 @ 15:02
    Raitis, it’s not the interest rates that are going to drive the show. It is the trump policy that already stipulate a weaker dollar, he could put pressure on the Fed to open a swaps line. One way to deal with US debt. Add to that I heard on an RV interview that the Chinese and the Russians have been buying and supporting the euro for some reason or the other. David, sorry I have thrown the towel when it comes to a strong dollar for the following: Euro bottoming with a possible Head and Shoulders formation on the daily. The last COT report indicate very high level of shorts EURUSD, who’s left to sell? 57% DXc1 The USD/MXN is starting to tell a different story. I kind of agree with your technical picture and the fundamentals provided by intelligence 2 partners but the sentiment is changing and other countries may react to a raising dollar and trade barriers by dumping the USD. By the way Michael Oliver’s interview on RV about Momentum had me do the legwork about the future of USD. I believe we will see another wave up which I will use to load on gold and miners but the dollar long trade may be over. Good luck everyone.
  • DF
    Dave F. | Contributor
    27 January 2017 @ 14:51
    Hi Raitis - I cannot offer an explanation. It is simply a function of looking back at data when the Fed raises and then measuring the total return for DXC looking ahead 3, 6 and 12-months. Nautilus Capital did the study - consult their research for details.
  • RK
    Ray K.
    27 January 2017 @ 14:10
    Can someone briefly explain why higher interest rate environment would be bearish for US dollar?
  • DF
    Dave F. | Contributor
    27 January 2017 @ 12:56
    Regarding the comments and questions on correlations. Correlations are always in flux and certainly not etched in stone. Yes, i is possible to be bullish gold and DXC as well as gold and USD/JPY. It does not mean I am right, but I am willing to take that chance
  • MG
    Miguel G.
    27 January 2017 @ 11:41
    If your bullish the dollar how can you be bullish gold miners when there is a strong inverse correlation with gold and the dollar? Are you thinking gold and the dollar can rally together?
  • NR
    Nuno R.
    27 January 2017 @ 11:26
    Hi Dave, i follow your work and i always enjoy listening to your views. Being myself a fundamentals guy, i struggle to see how NGD can go from under $4 to $10 to $11 purely on technicals, without looking at production profile, growth plan, balance sheet, etc.... but i respect your views and analysis. Thank you.
  • GR
    Guido R.
    27 January 2017 @ 11:24
    ooops... apologies... wrong video
  • GR
    Guido R.
    27 January 2017 @ 11:24
    Did my comment just get censored...?
  • vt
    vadim t.
    27 January 2017 @ 10:21
    So Dave, you're long usdjpy and long gold via NGD? Correlation is about -1, how is it gonna play out?
  • SF
    Steffen F.
    27 January 2017 @ 09:45
  • SC
    Sajad C.
    27 January 2017 @ 07:09
    Thank you Dave, a great series. Useful to observe your mindset mid trade, your approach, your stop losses, your charts all educational. Look forward to the next episode.
  • TS
    Tim S.
    27 January 2017 @ 04:45
    I have really enjoyed this series. It is helpful not only hearing a description of the but also the price points for action and the pre-thinking and consideration while waiting for a trend to be validated. Thanks!
  • EC
    Eric C.
    27 January 2017 @ 03:17
    Was looking forward to this since the last episode!!
  • DF
    Dave F. | Contributor
    27 January 2017 @ 03:15
    Thanks Raghu.
  • DF
    Dave F. | Contributor
    27 January 2017 @ 03:15
    Hi Thomas - GLD has rallied 8.4% off the December lows. Am I concerned about a 2.5% correction from the recent swing high? Nope. Again, my position on gold is clear - I am not trading it. I am a long-term investor. Hope that helps.
  • RR
    Raghu R.
    27 January 2017 @ 00:55
    Thanks Dave, You are spot on AUDUSD. It turned around right at 101. I also liked your calls on DX and TBT.
  • TR
    Thomas R.
    27 January 2017 @ 00:45
    Your video was taped on the 24th. Today is the 26th. Are you concerned at all about the drop in Gold below 1200 these last 2 days, and if not, what is a reasonable correction to a presumed uptrend vs something to be concerned about. We basically hit a low in the mid 1120's, rebounded up to 1210-1220 range. Is a 50% re-tracment (1170 ish) the maximum you'd want to see?
  • DF
    Dave F. | Contributor
    26 January 2017 @ 22:26
    Traders - here is an update on the Dollar Index from today's (Jan 26th) price action. This is price action and insights that was not covered in this video update. Enjoy -