I tried to sign up for this guy’s service and had questions about how to use it, and then tried to cancel it, but never got any responses to anything. Just a heads up folks.

Looks as though global economies growth is flat to slowing. Lower oil prices means lower inflation means lower sov bond yields. Both of these support JC's thesis.

The economic fundamentals agree with your technicals. High probability bonds go higher.

Agree 100% although along with flatteners (intermediate term can still rise faster making IEF underperform), I thought it would be prudent to get long some out of the money TLT Puts for 19Q1, in case this thing gets out of hand such as a blowout CPI this week. So yea, IEF, TLT maybe even some AGG with an apocalyptic long end short hedge. More vol on the way! Good call and great analysis. Thank you!

I love your videos JC. You,re animated and to the point. Keep up the good work.

I know that I am a majority of one, but US bond interest rates can still go up. In 2018 the treasury is expected to issue $1 trillion marketable debt. In 2019 this is expected to rise to $1.4 trillion without a recession. The world is awash in debt both private and public with increasing risks of defaults. Defaults will drive more lenders to US debt, but where is the balance? How much of the smart money is in this trade just for a safer bet than the stock market for now? How much of the smart money is generated from risks in the venture capital market? The smart money may also be betting on the Fed to save them if the trade goes sideways. Longer-term rates are market driven. The smart money is probably correct but be careful. Do not let a trade become an investment. DLS

shouldnt speculative positioning be more meaningful than the hedgers?

JC 2 questions. 1 what is the time frame you have on this ? 2 yesterday's close was 9.92 is this trade valid ? or should we expect a leg lower before it turns. I am bullish on bonds as well, specially since economic data has been weak the fed will get more dovish, plus the scarier the world gets the more money will flow to treasuries. and I am a big believer all this world wide QE experiment will end up very badly. ( just to clarify I am not a permabear, I have been bullish before, just not seeing a light at the end of the tunnel )

Great video, like this guy a lot. Good presenter but also seems to make a lot of sense. Agree a lot of the other trade idea videos could benefit from this. Love the snappy content. TBH, more than 5 mins is too long. They’re ideas, you need to work off of them, i.e. do your own due diligence. The 10-15 minute videos are just too long. I have this called a life RV!

Historically banks go down in a rising rate environment so doesn’t that mess up your whole thesis?

Excellent presentation.

JC if you have conviction why not load the boat w $ZROZ. #BigBalls

I agree with Federico's comments. The best trade ideas challenge me to examine my own methods toward trading. This is one of those. I am not in this trade and I don't agree with some of his methods but they are well constructed and presented. Thanks

Spot on. QE = higher long-term yields, therefore QT = lower long-term yields. There's a reason the "Smart Money" is long bonds.

JC is the real deal and is very good at what he does. The presentation here is perfect.

This is very well presented. Agree that this is how the Trade Ideas section should be done

A note of caution on sector correlations... Before 2018 = QE After 2018 = QT

Regardless of your view on the actual trade, imo, this is how an idea should be presented in the 'Trading Ideas' section; clear, concise and specific. Thought process > levels > execution. Thanks J.C.

Superbly concise, and persuasively argued. I'm persuaded, especially if as Raoul believes the equity market will soon decline further. It looks like the smart money is already positioned for this! Thank you.

What about ever-increasing supply of USTs and piss poor auctions of late? What about negative yields on JPY and EUR basis? Who's gonna buy USTs is the question one should be asking, not drawing lines for yields.

Thanks JC. Food for thought