Momentum Late in the Cycle

Published on
September 5th, 2019
10 minutes

Momentum Late in the Cycle

Technical Trader ·
Featuring Ari Wald

Published on: September 5th, 2019 • Duration: 10 minutes

Ari Wald, head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer & Co., makes his Real Vision debut with a bullish call on equities. Wald explains why he thinks the secular bull trend isn't over yet, and breaks down the historical case for momentum strategies at this point in the cycle. He also highlights recent breakouts in momentum indicators and provides two ETFs to play the setup - $MTUM and $DWAS. Filmed on September 4, 2019 in New York.



  • JB
    James B.
    11 September 2019 @ 15:07
    Wow, he definitely got this wrong in the short term.
  • PS
    Poyan S.
    10 September 2019 @ 17:55
  • CW
    CC W.
    9 September 2019 @ 05:00
    After reading most of the comments below the consensus are so negative that I think Ari might be right.
  • WW
    Wayne W.
    9 September 2019 @ 04:21
    OMG, notorious permabull always talking his book. If it wasn't for buybacks and the spineless Federal Reserve in the back-pocket of the President and the crybaby 'markets' always looking for more candy the SP500 would be in the toilet. Makes his debut...can this be his final appearance as well, I break out in hives every time I see this market cheer-leading shill.
  • MS
    Marcio S.
    7 September 2019 @ 20:33
    Picking up pennies in front of the steamroller....
  • PP
    Peter P.
    7 September 2019 @ 19:14
    Has he ever not been bullish?
  • AM
    Alonso M.
    5 September 2019 @ 14:21
    It amazes me that technical analysis can be interpreted so differently by different people. I think this must have to do with the time horizon of the technical analyst. I've found it helpful to align myself with technical analysts that use a time horizon consistent with my personal comfort zone. One inconsistency in the presentation is the idea that large cap US tech is a momentum strategy today. How can this be? In 2019, the momentum has been in bonds, precious metals, utilities, and REITs. Sure they're all getting pasted today, but it seems to me the environment has changed, and the S&P 500 hasn't got the memo yet. I noticed AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, FB are not hitting new highs whereas bonds, precious metals, and utilities are. Can someone explain to me why buying a name like AMZN or FB today is considered a momentum strategy? Because Mr. Wald didn't do a particular good job of that in my opinion.
    • JR
      Jay R.
      5 September 2019 @ 15:33
      You are exactly right, the momentum CTA strategies have started to incorporate the bonds, metals into their risk-on/risk-off strategies. Very little liquidity in S&P 500 versus long term averages which drive volatility up and down very quickly. The options market with gamma hedging etc. leads to tactical plays and if you want to drive yourself nuts follow these short term trends. I am just waiting for the next CTA fund to blow up because it could not run to the exits quick enough because it was on the wrong side of the bet
    • MT
      Mike T.
      7 September 2019 @ 13:09
      ......amazed that technical analysis can be interpreted so differently by different people....? There's a very simple answer why this is so. TA is subjectivity layered upon subjectively and other than a good tool to get newbies involved and interested in markets adds little real value in trading and investing decision making
  • GB
    Glen B.
    7 September 2019 @ 10:38
    Good one
  • MC
    Margarine C.
    6 September 2019 @ 15:23
    Regardless of whether this is going to work or not--taking profits along the way and/or using options responsibly makes a lot of sense but wasn't mentioned. You could be far in profit and get a massive late cycle gap down off of something that blindsides the market. Better safe than sorry imho.
  • KF
    Kenneth F.
    6 September 2019 @ 13:34
    Can you be bearish if you work as a major Wall St asset mgmt firm? Asking for a friend
  • RI
    R I.
    6 September 2019 @ 12:07
    The almighty 200 day moving average! Lol!
  • JM
    Jim M.
    6 September 2019 @ 10:14
    73-43 thumbs up to down. Very rare for RV. Suggests we go higher!
  • TS
    Taranvir S.
    5 September 2019 @ 14:16
    It all sounds great until I realise that so many market technicians/commentators/analysts etc. talk about so many factors and yet don't mention earnings (which is what equity prices are built on)...
    • DS
      David S.
      6 September 2019 @ 08:40
      Equity prices yes, but not derivatives or Algos. DLS
  • NR
    Nelson R.
    6 September 2019 @ 00:09
    Good presentation, keep bringing them bulls, congrats to Ari on his RV debut.
  • DR
    David R.
    5 September 2019 @ 23:26
    He could well be right for stocks denominated in USD, which is technically setting up for a big tumble some time, perhaps fairly soon, but the Dow and S&P priced in gold has been crashing with lots more yet to come.
  • SL
    Steve L.
    5 September 2019 @ 22:52
    we need the meme, "your technical analysis is no match for my tweets."
  • DW
    Dean W.
    5 September 2019 @ 22:05
    Nice discussion but I doubt that his ETF recommendations were the best ones that Oppenheimer gives their paying clients. : ) Today the markets looked like "Risk On"! Tomorrow, who knows? Maybe drop and fill a gap. My motto - Stay flexible and take what the market offers, not what you "think" if should be doing. Happy Trading!
  • PV
    Peter V.
    5 September 2019 @ 07:15
    Please bring on more Sokoloff's and less of this technical level 1 analysis.
    • ns
      niall s.
      5 September 2019 @ 09:23
      I’m happy that RV has room for all , some of us appreciate a well presented trade idea.
    • AF
      Andre F.
      5 September 2019 @ 20:56
      More Sokoloff? What for? The level of Sokoloff that we have right now is just fine.
  • AH
    Andreas H.
    5 September 2019 @ 19:57
    RV put a bull on! Dreams and wonders happen :-)
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    5 September 2019 @ 08:34
    This was interesting and well presented. I’m going to re-listen to Michael Oliver’s video on RV which makes quite a different momentum based call from memory. Exciting times and good to get differing perspectives.
    • GL
      Gregory L.
      5 September 2019 @ 15:51
      His mention of momentum is momentum stocks. Oliver's is something totally different, even if they use the same word.
  • MR
    Mitchell R.
    5 September 2019 @ 15:51
    BTFD? Hell no... It's a game of musical chairs right now...
  • GL
    Gregory L.
    5 September 2019 @ 15:51
    He needs to include 1999-2001 and 2007-2009 in his charts if he wants to make a case. His underlying assumption is that we are continuing the bull market. If so, indicators bounce. If not, the become more extreme
  • Nv
    Nick v.
    5 September 2019 @ 08:24
    Happy that RealVision is not CNBC. Still good to get a perma bull on every now and then Enjoyed it. Thank you
  • ST
    Simon T.
    5 September 2019 @ 08:23
    its pathetic to listen to a technical analysis guy suggesting to buy Index ETF of S&P500, that shows us what investment 2019 is all about...