Peter Brandt’s View Ahead

Published on
November 15th, 2018
16 minutes

Peter Brandt’s View Ahead

Technical Trader ·
Featuring Peter Brandt

Published on: November 15th, 2018 • Duration: 16 minutes

Peter Brandt of Factor Trading is back and joins Real Vision to highlight the most important charts he's looking at right now. He reviews the technical setup and price targets for several different markets, including U.S. bonds, S&P 500, gold and bitcoin. Filmed on November 13, 2018 in Tucson, Arizona.


  • PJ
    Peter J.
    11 January 2019 @ 09:54
    I'd be really interested in Peter's view of how the gold chart is panning out. He obviously saw in the charts in November a position to the downside. This to date has not happened with gold strengthening. I'd be genuinely interested in his take on what has occurred from a chartist perspective since November and how he sees it going forward. I suspect this will not get picked up being now buried in the past.
  • MB
    Matthias B.
    16 November 2018 @ 13:09
    I always like his concise reasoning even if they are at odds with my thinking. But a strong rally of USD/CHF is very hard to believe. could it rally to 1.10? sure, given the tension in the offshore dollar market but on a fundamental 10y forecast, I would bet on continuous decline of this currency pair. The US has too many structural issues at home and the magnitude of the $ status as reserve currency will decline more and more going forward.
    • DR
      David R.
      6 December 2018 @ 13:56
      It's a shorter term trade. Long term the dollar is going way, way, way down. And it's a slam dunk that the reserve currency status will be lost, now must many months away instead of many years away, and as a consequence the US standard of living will crash and the majority of Americans will be very poor.
  • MC
    Matthew C.
    27 November 2018 @ 14:58
    Nailed it on $BTC
  • SB
    Stewart B.
    25 November 2018 @ 13:44
    Great interview. My only caution is accepting that 'the ECB et al can't maintain NIRP forever'. It may be true but NIRP may continue much longer than we expect, possibly for as long as the Eurozone itself continues to exist.
  • Nv
    Nick v.
    15 November 2018 @ 12:22
    Using Advance declines lines is yesterday's game unfortunately. Why? Because passive buying skews the NUMBER of shares advancing. Rather look at the number of S&P500 companies trading below their 50 and 200 day moving averages and the number already down 20% from 52w highs = VERY POOR BREADTH.
    • PU
      Peter U.
      15 November 2018 @ 13:36
      very strong counter argument
    • DS
      David S.
      17 November 2018 @ 23:09
      Mr. Brandt has shown how to use moving averages in prior videos. I think he was making a particular point here. DLS
  • NT
    17 November 2018 @ 09:57
    Can someone explain why using MA140 instead of MA200?
    • DR
      David R.
      17 November 2018 @ 20:51
      Why not? It's arbitrary and whatever is the best fit (think linear regression) tends to work best moving forward (think reversion to the mean).
  • BB
    Bryan B.
    17 November 2018 @ 16:18
    Here’s a great interview of Peter Brandt
  • YB
    Yuriy B.
    17 November 2018 @ 16:03
    Love Peter Brandt! I know absolutely nothing about technical analysis. So I crave insight from experts in this space to re-assess ideas I've developed through fundamentals. Please keep bringing Peter aboard!!!
  • LJ
    Lucille J.
    15 November 2018 @ 21:58
    • NI
      Nate I.
      16 November 2018 @ 22:38
      Yes and companies have taken on so much debt that they risk downgrade, or in some cases default, if this continues. I will be astonished if this somehow continues.
  • AA
    Aymman A.
    16 November 2018 @ 16:50
    Please keep him a regular at Real Vision. I don’t agree with all his arguments but I need clear concise presentations by people with a different viewpoint. Peter Brandt is one of the all time greats.
  • JM
    Jeff M.
    15 November 2018 @ 23:58
    When people speak of market breadth it seems that they are all looking at different charts. I've seen people say "breadth is amazing" and "breadth is horrible" within a few days of each other. What are they looking at? I've been using ticker ADV on, and it looks to me like breadth is, indeed, bad. Yet this chart that Peter pulls up does look good. I can't even replicate it though because when I type in "$NYAD" on, I just get a horrendous squiggle up and down that is totally useless. All the advance decline ratios, lines, etc on and are up one day, down the next, no continuity to it and no useful patterns.
    • PB
      Peter B. | Contributor
      16 November 2018 @ 13:23
      Set the "cumulative" setting
    • mw
      mathias w.
      16 November 2018 @ 13:57
      chose "cumulative" on to get the right graph
  • CF
    Cause F.
    16 November 2018 @ 06:04
    The view on 30-yr is the most surprising, given what's happening to inflation driven by commodities, especially oil
  • JQ
    JACK Q.
    16 November 2018 @ 03:33
    EURIBOR - i like that, there's a lot of institutional money playing that as well
  • LJ
    Lucille J.
    15 November 2018 @ 22:06
    I am confused 4.50 bond rate and bull market in stock NO WAY
  • AM
    Artur M.
    15 November 2018 @ 21:37
    Thanks Peter, Always looking forward to your content. And don't let others mange your twitter account :-)
  • DS
    David S.
    15 November 2018 @ 19:47
    I am probably missing something, but can US 30-year bonds yields go to 4.5-5% and the S&P 500 head higher in a debt super cycle? I guess the advance/decline line will markedly change before interest rates get anywhere near "normal" levels. DLS
  • DS
    David S.
    15 November 2018 @ 19:34
    A pleasure as always. The negative yield of the Swiss National Bank is keeping the Swiss franc (CHF) in line with its trading partners, but a nice side game is the number of CHFs flowing into the SNB from the negative rates. The SNB is not like the US Fed as the Wikipedia ownership shows the SNB is owned as follows: Swiss cantons (45%), the banks of the cantons (15%), and the remainder in the possession of private individuals. In 2018 the SNB had stock investments of 153 billion CHF and over 30 CHF billion in gold. DLS
  • DB
    David B.
    15 November 2018 @ 15:14
    Peter's understanding of trading technicals is tough to match and I particularly find his insights useful when they don't align with my views / positions. Taking a more critical look at how I came to that view helps me stay sharp and avoid complacency. A couple of questions I would have asked Peter. For the S&P 500, to what extent do you consider how other global markets are performing? As we know, the S&P 500 has really been alone in its relative strength. Is more likely that breadth will continue to worsen in the context that global markets are much weaker already? With regards to bond, similar to Gundlach, he uses a multi-decade channel line as confirmation that the head-and-shoulders pattern has breached a significant level leading to his call for higher yields. However, you can redraw that channel line prior to 2006 and that line broke in 2006/07. You could then redraw the line and it would have broken in 2010/2011. All were false breakouts. So my question would be, "is there a level on bonds that would change your view and indicate that this was yet another false breakout?" Thanks for sharing your insights!!
  • GR
    George R.
    15 November 2018 @ 12:14
    Why have you taken NYAD breadth in 2007-2009 and then compared it to S&P breadth in the present day? Apples and apples surely?
    • PU
      Peter U.
      15 November 2018 @ 13:36
      good question
  • TJ
    Terry J.
    15 November 2018 @ 12:42
    Brilliant synopsis from Peter as always and most timely! Thank you.