Preparing for a Parabolic Advance

Published on
June 27th, 2019
21 minutes

Preparing for a Parabolic Advance

Technical Trader ·
Featuring Peter Brandt

Published on: June 27th, 2019 • Duration: 21 minutes

Peter Brandt of Factor LLC has been a successful independent trader for over four decades, and in all of his experience, he has never seen another market quite like bitcoin. In his long-awaited return to Real Vision, Brandt explains his unique history with bitcoin, compares and contrasts its parabolic advances with other famous bull markets, and updates his outlook on the crypto asset class for the next 12 months. Filmed on June 19, 2019 in Nisswa, Minnesota.



  • FG
    Flavio G.
    1 July 2019 @ 07:54
    I listen to technical analysis people with the same candid fascination I listen to Tarot readers... until it becomes boring.
    • JS
      Jon S.
      23 August 2020 @ 11:42
      haahha this is great
  • AC
    Aylton C.
    1 December 2019 @ 14:22
    This is a great video! We can see how to fit a graphic into data and how to be prescient about the past. It's nice to find out how long you can live in this industry with an extremely narrow, sometimes even magical view of reality, and misunderstanding asset classes. Inefficiency of players means room for profits.
  • CE
    Ch E.
    27 October 2019 @ 05:55
    Dam! Even as an engineer, I had missed that nuance about the logarithmic nature on a log scale. Thank you for articulating clearly.
  • RS
    Robert S.
    9 July 2019 @ 20:39
    It is blatantly obvious that this man has no clue what he is trading. But sometimes you need to know exactly that. Bitcoin has zero chance to be part of any currency basket, since 4% of its value is used (lost) yearly to keep itself alive. This disqualifies it is a store of value. As it is too slow to transact it disqualifies also as a medium of exchange. As soon as there is a superior technology Bitcoin will go to zero. And I’ve got News for you that technology has already arrived...
    • NC
      N C.
      12 July 2019 @ 12:59
      You contradict yourself with your own vast knowledge. The fact that Bitcoin is not zero, even though this "superior technology" has supposedly arrived, proves you are wrong. Isn't that blatantly obvious?
    • ML
      Mark L.
      29 July 2019 @ 17:10
      Let me guess. Hedera Hashgraph? You may need to take a second look there. But all the best.
    • CT
      Crispim T.
      13 October 2019 @ 21:19
      Good luck with that. Bitcoin has survived almost 11 years and keeps rising. The network effect and Lindy are becoming bullet-proof. The protocol is more and more ossified. Ahh the "will go to zero" naysayers are wrong, year after year, after year. Next decade won't be different.
  • as
    andrew s.
    31 August 2019 @ 12:15
    90% of bitcoin is owned by 360 wallets
    • CS
      Carlo S.
      3 September 2019 @ 09:04
      They are exchanges holding customers funds dump ass
    • as
      andrew s.
      7 September 2019 @ 17:36
      Dumb ass if you keep crypto on an exchange
  • CG
    Chris G.
    3 September 2019 @ 20:52
  • as
    andrew s.
    31 August 2019 @ 12:20
    ' a lot of mystery for me, i have never really dug deep into how it works'
  • PK
    Patrick K.
    29 July 2019 @ 10:16
    As a follower of Peter Brandt on Twitter, I'm glad to find him here on Real Vision. His TA skills are well known. As Peter S. pointed out in the comments, most people his age wouldn't dare to touch anything as daring as cryptocurrencies. Thank you Peter for the overview Bitcoin's historical value and daring prediction of what you see coming !
  • RM
    R M.
    28 June 2019 @ 12:40
    Peter and Mike Oliver from MSA are two of my favorite chartists and technicians. Discovered them both thanks to Real Vision. This discovery alone makes my investment in RV worth it to me. Please have them both on often!
    • BT
      Bryan T.
      6 July 2019 @ 16:02
      Take a look at Aksel Kibar as well who interestingly enough... was featured recently on RV.
  • SU
    Shakeel U.
    28 June 2019 @ 12:45
    If you trade based on price action alone than your fundamental basis is ignorance.
    • MP
      Mayank P.
      28 June 2019 @ 20:43
      You wouldn't say so if you know Peter well. He is one of the best trader alive.
    • pd
      preston d.
      2 July 2019 @ 00:08
      Care to compare your lifetime returns to Peter's?
  • MS
    Mr S.
    1 July 2019 @ 02:58
    I'm thinking the market has not bottomed if we get so many enthusiastic talk about bitcoin and crypto. i feel that there still too much excitement about crypto's future at this point in time. Sure, we have had the recent ICO blow ups and large drops in the value of the coins, but people are generally still talking positively about the space. They were not deterred. Just look at the past interviews this week. In my opinion, a true bear market occurs when (smart) people start saying that they want to have nothing to do with crypto... so that tells me we are either in the very early stages of the bull market (smart institutional money moving in) or we are at the denial phase (hopes of ever brighter future). If the highs in bitcoins are eclipsed on this move, then we know where we stand...going to $100k/bitcoin on a rocket ship. If it falters, we are heading back below $3k to a true bear market (where prices will remain for years)
  • MU
    Mo U.
    29 June 2019 @ 14:36
    You could have made the same argument four hundred years ago with the Tulip mania. Was it reasonable at that time to "risk up to 10% of liquid investible assets"? Certainly not the kind of advice I would give to friends and family
    • JA
      Jernej A.
      29 June 2019 @ 17:32
      I am not sure the tulip bubble recovered in price the same way bitcoin.
  • JB
    Jose B.
    29 June 2019 @ 17:27
    Great Job Peter
  • CR
    Christopher R.
    28 June 2019 @ 04:13
    Where/what firms do you use to trade crypto? Ive been just using a local philippine wallet really but the fees just to deposit currency into the wallet is 1.5 to 2% as well as cashout fees
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      29 June 2019 @ 12:01
      Christopher, if you can, register on the Bitstamp Exchange, and use Revolut to send Euros to it (Bitstamp are the Custodian for Revolut's walled garden Crypto offering, so doubt they will block payments to this Crypto exchange, although they've blocked them to many of the others. Maybe then look at using a wallet like Dropbit on your phone, for storage.
  • CT
    29 June 2019 @ 10:41
    I like Peter Brandt. I was not a huge fan of this segment though. I think TA considerations might be weaker in face of greater extrapolations, and since bitcoin has evolved in such a hyperbolic fashion, as Brandt well points out, this concerns me with regards to validity of predictions made in this video. If Bitcoin were to hit 100k it would imply roughly a 10x increase in market cap breaking the 2 trillion mark. That would require widespread adoption and increase in retail/institut. participation. Who knows, sounds pretty crazy to me. If you also consider that last time BTC was at 10k+, a lot of other coins were dominating in market cap. The move into cryptos as an asset class has been much more concentrated this time around. Furthermore, I think the arbitrary assignment of probabilities to outcomes is inconsistent with prudent asset allocation. If 50/50 was indeed true it would imply a 200% upside at current levels. Sounds pretty bullish and would in my mind merit even more fanfare. Surge of BTC came about as US-China trade war reerupted. Might be happenstance, might be chinese moving money as safe haven trade. Apparently at G20 trade talks have resumed. No one cares about that?
  • AP
    Antonio P.
    28 June 2019 @ 19:38
    What a BS!
  • CL
    Chris L.
    28 June 2019 @ 15:32
    Lol christ 😂
  • DW
    Daniel W.
    28 June 2019 @ 08:25
    Any comment from Peter on the fact that each Advance was less steep? Does that Play a role in your Outlook?
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    27 June 2019 @ 08:07
    This was awesome! Super fun and fascinating analysis. 10% is huge!!! Would love to hear how Peter’s protecting himself against BTC going to zero.
    • Kv
      Kristian v.
      28 June 2019 @ 05:10
      Having studied Peter’s trading style a fair bit here are my thoughts. He’s likely built his position over the course of the last 6 months using classical charting patterns such breakouts of rectangles, H&S bottoms, and symmetrical and asymmetrical triangles as entry points. He’s set tight stops at each entry likely using his breakout day rule that puts the stop at the low of the breakout day. He quickly moves his stops to break even and will get out of any losing trade on the Friday of the week he placed the trade. As the positions move in his favor, he likely has a trailing stop just below the break of the parabola and will get very defensive and begin to take profits as bitcoin approaches his price target of $80k to $100k. Peter is all about risk management. Again, this would be my best guess given all I’ve watched and read about how he trades charts.
  • FA
    Fadi A.
    27 June 2019 @ 21:46
    Thank you Peter Any comments on other main crypto like Etherium or ETC ....
  • SG
    Sven G.
    27 June 2019 @ 18:39
    I like him... any idea how to draw the parabolic lines? I get everything else
  • DB
    Douglas B.
    27 June 2019 @ 17:45
    Thank you, Peter. Great segment. It is so rare to have a trader as seasoned as you, comment on Bitcoin. Thank you for keeping an open mind and applying your expert analysis to this unique asset, currency, commodity, or whatever the hell you want to classify it as.
  • MC
    Michael C.
    27 June 2019 @ 16:37
    Love Peter's thoughts in general and really enjoy hearing what he has to say about crypto. Thanks RV
  • JM
    Jim M.
    27 June 2019 @ 12:59
    10% of his liquid net worth into Bitcoin. Wow. I think I gotta follow him in.
  • SS
    S S.
    27 June 2019 @ 10:09
    Peter is an all time great. 40+ years in the business and he still is prepared to go into a new market like Bitcoin. Most people his age wouldn't go anywhere near it.
  • JF
    Josh F.
    27 June 2019 @ 09:58
    Ever work with Ted or Scott Kohl from Alaron? My first bosses in the business.