The weak, plunging US dollar reinforces the short-term likelihood of a US equity rally, at least in nominal terms. US has dollar utterly collapsed from Aug. 15, and the extremely small short-lived reaction rally last week before current resumption of the dollar weakness/plunge (against virtually all currencies now), indicates the dollar is setting up for a major crash. Except for a handful of marginal EM currencies, the dollar has never even gotten close to highs of last year before puking like it is again now. Even the much-maligned CNY easily held critical resistance and the dollar is going down against that too. While some EM FX have been weak, several have gained double-digits against the dollar, so you cannot lump all the apples altogether. Now even Jeffrey Gundlach at Double Line is calling for "a dollar crash". Bottom line: dollar going lower, much lower. That's supportive of US equities, nominally, but selected foreign equities are far superior investments in currency-adjusted terms. So get OUT of dollar and dollar-based assets if you want to generate alpha.

Dave, have you noticed that DXY is making a head & shoulders on the daily, while the EURUSD is making a H&S on the 4-hr chart. What does it mean? Some short-term dollar strength/recovery ahead but intermediate-term dollar weakness? My TA of US stocks, in sum, broadly expects US stocks to consolidate then breakout higher later, which would be inverse to the currency move I described. But keeping an eye on key levels of course.

So, Amazon going to 2500 USD? Well, what is an additional 250 billion USD between friends.. However, don't forget that QT kicks into a higher gear (50 billion instead of 30 billion/month) and ECB tapering in Q4. EM collapse. Could be the start of something cataclysmic, especially when everyone and their brother is long the SPY based on "technicals" not the law of large numbers..

This is interesting in that price is king for most technical analysts (including Dave) whereas others might place more emphasis on things like sentiment and momentum. It's profits that matter in the end, but risk also matters. Reduce risk by using an index ETF like SPY? Sure, but at least acknowledge that over 25% of your sector exposure is in technology.

I love Dave's presentations. He's nailed every one he's presented so far that I've watched. As hard as it is for me to swallow his analysis he's given me no reason not to at this point. With most of the crowd pushing and positioning for the crash narrative it's likely that it won't happen as soon as expected. I'll be reevaluating some of my positions. Thanks Dave. Looking forward to the next one...

Happy if you think it's going up, but the wave count looks a little spurious doesn't it? Overlapping counts in wave 1.....magenta waves 1 and 2 barely perceptible.

Shame he didn't look at the weekly RSI which hit 90.5 in January. The S&P has retested the Jan high. Will the weekly RSI break 90.5 again? Doubtful. Welles Wilder failure swing is primed.

Right or Wrong, well reasoned as usual! Pithy and concise—an excellent update from Dave. Thanks RV.

Thank heavens for the technical analysis here. I don't care much about fundamentals, which at best are barely relevant and actually often misleading. Re: "exciting summer trading", remember 2011 and 2015. Agree with Dave that the S&P breakout from the consolidation wedge is bullish, which is basic Trading 101, and all the bearish fundamental guys are just wrong like they've been wrong for years. So S&P up, dollar down. Keep on truckin, Dave.

US ignorance of EM melt-down too shall end. Only 58% of Apple's profit ex-US and 40% S&P500 sales ex-US. The earnings downgrade cycle is about to commence. All the best of luck

Don’t agree but like the presentation.