Three Trades for Fall

Published on
August 30th, 2019
11 minutes

Three Trades for Fall

Technical Trader ·
Featuring Dave Floyd

Published on: August 30th, 2019 • Duration: 11 minutes

Coming off of an unusually volatile summer, Dave Floyd of Aspen Trading Group provides an overview of recent market moves and forecasts what lies ahead in September. He breaks down the options markets for the S&P 500, before moving on to two major currency pairs. Filmed on August 28, 2019 in Bend, Oregon.



  • JP
    John P.
    15 September 2019 @ 14:19
    Dave at approx 3:30 plus time marker of the video you state s&p to hit 2990 to 2920, believe you meant to say 3020?, for the later high - where we are approximately today,...thanks for clarifying ASAP for us markets are pushing highs ahead of Fed’s meeting this week Wed Sept 18th...
  • FB
    Floyd B.
    6 September 2019 @ 20:10
    now that we are at 2978.71 on S&P what was your stop on getting short around 2920?
  • DC
    Dan C.
    6 September 2019 @ 05:56
    Good video thanks David. The institutional secret lies in the use of IVOL and RVOL premiums and discounts within the context of the wider trend. Today we have an IVOL discount of -39% which is a great day to start shorting $SPY at the top of its risk range.
  • DR
    David R.
    2 September 2019 @ 21:17
    Stopped out but I would look for another re-entry pt lower to try the same things until it works. The USD is going to meltdown. The techs speak for themselves and the Fed is already monetizing US debt again just recently after 4 failed Treasury auctions in August - the US has a choice: accept massively higher interest rates or massively monetize debt. Official Fed QE on steroids probably in Q4 or else Q1 (if they wait that long, the high-on-crack US stocks and fake US economy will crash first). US policymakers have already decided to monetize the massive & soaring US deficit. Print, print, print. USD turns to dust. Gold & silver to the moon!
    • DR
      David R.
      3 September 2019 @ 19:47
      Indeed, another 5% up for silver today. That's up 10% in just the last few days and pushing toward 50% year-to-date. US manufacturing is now officially decisively contracting recession with today's bleak US ISM, the worst in ten years. Real US budget deficit on its way to $3-trillion (don't forget they "hide" half of the real budget deficit as "emergency" items, lol). Quite zimbabwe-like. Metals to the moon!
  • SB
    Stewart B.
    3 September 2019 @ 19:38
    A quick question. When you compare IV on calls and puts, I assume you actually mean the IV of options above the forward price and the IV of options below the forward price? It doesn't really make sense otherwise as the IV must be the same at each strike (ignoring spread) otherwise you could arbitrage a future with a synthetic long or synthetic short ('put-call parity').
  • JW
    Joel W.
    3 September 2019 @ 18:58
    Dave, thanks for another great presentation. I don’t trade like you do, but I never miss one of your videos because I always learn something valuable.
  • WW
    William W.
    2 September 2019 @ 21:05
    Agree with comments below in terms of being nimble and the concise presentation...the 28th seems like an awful long time ago now! Yup...short S/P here also...
    • DF
      Dave F. | Contributor
      2 September 2019 @ 22:44
      Thanks William - all analysis presently has a very short shelf-life....where true traders can shine. I don't think you will see those clowns trading from private planes with their '3 secret patterns' for too much longer....and that will be to everyone's benefit!
  • IP
    IDA P.
    30 August 2019 @ 12:50
    the market is so violent that we are already at 2920!
    • DF
      Dave F. | Contributor
      30 August 2019 @ 14:10
      Ida - yes, it is tough to forecast in here as things change quickly and can often require adjustments or even abandoning a view altogether.
    • DR
      David R.
      2 September 2019 @ 21:07
      Yeahbut the S&P futures are below 2900.
  • NR
    Nelson R.
    1 September 2019 @ 15:36
    Well done
    • DF
      Dave F. | Contributor
      1 September 2019 @ 16:59
      Thanks Nelson
  • GP
    Gordon P.
    31 August 2019 @ 22:55
    Awesome presentation, Dave, thanks -- I too would be interested in a workshop type session --
    • DF
      Dave F. | Contributor
      1 September 2019 @ 14:52
      Duly noted Gordon....let the powers that be at RealVision know too - we have discussed doing some workshops together.
  • Hv
    Hannah v.
    31 August 2019 @ 20:28
    Thanks Dave for a great teach session. Have you ever though if giving mentor workshops online or as a weekend “retreat” style? I’d love to spend a day or two watching you trade in-person. Or via FaceTime/Skype. Thanks again. A fan way up in west coast Canada.
    • DF
      Dave F. | Contributor
      31 August 2019 @ 20:33
      Hi Hannah - I just spent an amazing 2 weeks up in your neck of the woods...perhaps a bit south of you - Salt Spring Island - wow, loved it there. I have done workshops before - we did one recently in London and have some them once or twice a year in other locations. Nothing on the books yet....but if you are on Aspen's email list you will know when we offer the next one.....
    • Hv
      Hannah v.
      1 September 2019 @ 06:21
      Hey Dave, Salt Spring Island? That’s close to my stomping grounds- I’m in Victoria. Salt Spring certainly is a fantastic place. Next time you’re up this way, hit up Desolation Sound. It’s beautiful up there as well. Yes, I’ve just subscribed. Looking forward to next videos!
  • DS
    David S.
    31 August 2019 @ 06:13
    Thanks. Good information and presentation. Are there fundamental reasons you believe the Euro will increase in value or just technical reasons? DLS
    • DF
      Dave F. | Contributor
      31 August 2019 @ 21:26
      Purely technical...although that view has been tarnished since I filmed this piece.
  • PC
    Peter C.
    31 August 2019 @ 18:43
    Best vid yet Dave. Really appreciate the explanation on the info from the options market pricing.
    • DF
      Dave F. | Contributor
      31 August 2019 @ 20:01
      Thanks Peter - been making an effort to expand my presentations here at RV to encompass more of my analysis/selection process....options and quantitative data are part of that process. Next video slated for September 19th release date
  • tw
    thomas w.
    30 August 2019 @ 18:51
    Hi Dave, did you go short EUR or just out of your position today (20190830) ? regards, Thomas
    • DF
      Dave F. | Contributor
      31 August 2019 @ 02:17
      Hi Thomas - no we were just stopped out.....
    • AA
      Andrew A.
      31 August 2019 @ 19:06
      That was a painful squeeze lower in EURUSD yesterday (Fri 30 Aug). Seemed like month end flow, buying USD. Also rumours of Norway buying USD ahead of buying more US equities vs EU equities.
  • ml
    michael l.
    31 August 2019 @ 02:31
    Very helpful, Dave. Yes, SPX needs to punch through 2940 early next week and then hold, or it's a rinse and repeat down to 2825 or lower.
  • MH
    Michael H.
    30 August 2019 @ 14:20
    Awesome breakdown, thanks!
    • DF
      Dave F. | Contributor
      30 August 2019 @ 15:48
      You are welcome Michael