Comments
Transcript
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AWAs one of the great Commodity traders, would have liked Michael to ask Jim Rogers where he sees food Commodity prices going - with droughts, locusts, Covid etc.
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HRhttps://www.thewirechina.com/2020/05/24/steve-bannon-on-hong-kong-covid-19-and-the-war-already-underway/
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DSI am eager to hear Raoul's, or any of the other bitcoin Real Vision bulls' counter-argument to Jim Rogers oft-repeated refrain of "Bitcoin is going to zero." Jim Rogers makes the same point that Mike Green did in his interview with Raoul that currencies not backed by the guns/military/force of a sovereign nation lack viability. This is an important point to consider. How would RP, Novogratz, Tapiero, et al, counter that? RV, please address this in upcoming videos. Thank you!
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NDOn Mr. Mobius comment on India, India will for this FY will end up with a fiscal deficit of 10-11%+ of GDP, it also runs a current account deficit (huge dependency on oil, commodities). Its banking system (>10% of loans) has one of the highest (reported, the estimate is the actual numbers could be higher) Gross NPAs among the EMs (only next to China I guess) and its shadow banking system has literally collapsed in the last 2 years. If India has to go for massive fiscal infrastructure (like Mr. Mobius is suggesting), how is she going to finance it? lol. By running huge twin deficits and a credit market in distress, oh and a sharp deceleration in real GDP not helping tax revenues.
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MC1) Hope to see more of Michael hosting interviews if he has the time. Did very well with Jim Rogers (who is always gracious). 2) Mark Mobious ,,,, thank you for painting China as the benevolent dictator. We know who butters your bread now. 3) Dr Ogus ... Yikes. Be careful what you say from inside HK. You may be committing treason.
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mBI am really starting to get excited about investing in emerging markets. Fascinating about the tech starting out on the new high tech. Is blockchain happening in emerging markets? Would love to learn more.
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agExcellent point about demographics in india being an advantage only if you create jobs. I hope this is our 1991 moment though the rise in nationalism is def a dark cloud. India never was a major manufacturing hub during the heights of globalisation and yea i wouldn't be holding my breath . The indian taxman has a great record harassing the foreign entity once he's put money in the country. Maybe this time its different but i wouldn't count on it
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DTJim Rogers like Peter Schiff has been saying the same thing for last 20 years. Even though they are both right in general, they have been wrong on timing all along. What they don't say is how do they sustain their capital and what do they trade while waiting for mega collapse.
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GFGood discussion, but I would have preferred to see it as three different videos on RV, rather than bundled all together as they were. If for no other reason, the comments could be more focused.
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SDMichael Nicoletos is very effective.
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SMThere is no debate on where the virus came from. It came from China thus its ChineseVirus or Wuhan Virus.
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KPThis guy seems like his best days are behind him, avoid.
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RKRegarding China - ff course there are very biased views as all these gentlemen are invested in that region. To all those who consider China as an equal partner for business or a good destination for investments I would recommend growing a spine.
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NLgreat stuff. Thank you. Only negative, Jim never pulled anything out of his pocket - like gold coin or Sulphate of Potash and talk why we should buy. Simon touched very interesting bit about Chinese tourists. I've been saying Oz very exposed to this and Chinese students too - not only resources. And tourists and students can be stopped in an instant.
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STLoved to listen to Dr Ogus - great to mention the HK banks assets to GDP is no different than London’s or NYC
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wjJim Rogers who has his skin in the china game I think he believes that he can win on his Chinese investments. But the advice I take from Mark is do the opposite. I have seen what “Chinese building a road” means. In Poland when Poland was supposed to upgrade the roads due to a football Euro cup. China underbid other contractors but built 1/3 of the road and left because they fell short. Roads was never built/finished. Good luck with any country taking deals from china on “build a road”. So Ill am dollars as Raul has suggested.
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RJMark Mobius thinks the bottom is in for EM currencies. Why didn't Roger ask/challenge him on global dollar shortage? Would have made for an interesting debate. Shame.
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NDJim Rogers has a fair point regarding outlawing of cryptocurrencies. Am from India and here the banking / payments regulator banned financial intermediaries from engaging in any activity related to crypto. Result is - no coin exchanges, no exchange of fiat to crypto and back, banks/money exchanges to report customer data/suspicious transactions on a periodic basis to the regulator. So the entire population was locked out (by order) of accessing this new universe. Until recently, the Supreme Court, in response to Public Interest Litigation, intervened in lifting off the ban. So yeah, the court intervened fortunately. But what's to stop the courts from colluding with vested interests and outlawing?
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EKHe described the problem (US dollar hegemony) defined the situation (Russia, Iran, China et al looking for alternatives)...then dismissed the solution (bitcoin)???
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DSMr. Nicoletos - Since you are Greek, it would be interesting to have a presentation by you about the Greek, Cyprus and Malta forced bailouts. You mentioned the deflation that Greece endured after the bailout. Was this caused by the rapid decline in GDP, or other factors? How did it affect the banking system when the bank depositors had their money stolen – pejorative word - from their accounts to fund the banks? It did not happen in Italy! Would the bankruptcy of Greece, Cyprus and Malta have been better for their citizens than an eternity of loans to pay off? Did other Euroland countries force this to save their own domestic banks with big balances of Greek bonds? Did the ECB contributed to this by saying all Euroland sovereign debt did not have to be reserved – on the balance sheet on par? Many countries are not feeling part of a greater Europe because of the COVID-19. I think everyone saved themselves and left the Greeks, Cyprians. and Maltese out to dry years ago. As you can tell from my questions, it is hard to tell from a distance what really happened. DLS
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JWThis was a very interesting tour d'horizon of the EM landscape, but for regular RV watchers at least, it was a little short on new perspectives perhaps. Once the dollar theme plays out, EM is definitely on the radar screen as an investable area. At this point, to me at least, It seems a little too early (using a 6-12 month outlook). Like Dylan Gryce elsewhere, the experts here recommend starting to take small bites but pick companies rather than countries. This is not easy for a retail investor and in that respect they were a little short on specifics and actionable insights. Having said that, I do think this video should age well and I can see me revisiting it later on. There should be a part two at some point addressing more specifics re investment options.
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WDUnfortunately Jim was not pressed on his views on bitcoin and other crypto currencies. Yes, some governments may outlaw crypto altogether out of desperation but this could backfire if other governments adopt crypto and this whole new industry, where the worlds most brilliant minds are converging..
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DSExcellent combination of interviews. It is a pleasure to see Mr. Nicoletos interviewing as he brings a lot of knowledge and a different perspective to the table. I particularly liked Mr. Onus’s interview as it developed different investment options in the Asian region from an long-time insider. It would be great to have another interview with Mr. Ogus now that the new security policies have been implemented in Hong Kong. Thanks, DLS
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BHThe first part is good
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TPJim Rogers was a delight to listen to. Mr Ogus however seems confused. Here, let me help. Wuhan Flu came from China, after a failure of suppressing whistleblowers (Dr. Li, among others), they finally admitted human-to-human transmission was taking place. Glad to be of service. I'd also love to know if DSG Asia Limited invests in CCP backed companies, but I'm not holding my breath on that score, since it seems transparency in performance or portfolios isn't part of these interviews. Of course I expect someone to talk their book, I'd just like to know it up front in the first place.
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ZFJim Rogers, sir, you tell it like it is. Always appreciate your view and while you’ll probably disagree with me, you seem to always be right. Thanks for taking the time to share your view with us.
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MPFree Roger. Let Roger out!
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PThttps://twitter.com/McClellanOsc/status/1263952702997856256/photo/1
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PThttp://horizonkinetics.com/wp-content/uploads/CFTC-Testimony_Feb-2018_Final.pdf
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PTStop with the outlaw of Bitcoin its not going to happen. All payments will be made in digital fiat yes not in Bitcoin. Bitcoin will /is the fixed reference point to value your worthless unlimited supply fiat , Maybe would be a good idea to do some homework its already happening. The largest financial institutions are building out the custodial infrastructure at a alarming pace. The digital world is coming and Bitcoin will be a part of it period.
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NvI live in South Africa and wish Mr Mobius was correct. Unfortunately, its going the exact opposite way. ANC looting is still increasing, not reducing. Unemployment and bankruptcies will be record high this year
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JVGood insights from Dr. Ogus.
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JEI know when Jim Rogers says buying stocks, he probably doesn’t mean ADRs Or does he? Any insight into how he holds Chinese stocks for instance?
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CBInteresting to hear Ogus’s perspective on Hong Kong - would be interested to hear him head to head with Kyle Bass.