Is Fredrik's opinion about the future price of oil considered controversial?

fredrik sir i want to read your future insights on demographics...where i can do this???

Fantastic interview! Great RV content! One quick question - what's the definition of the "Demographic Index"?

This was really interesting. Cheers

JPMorgan Says Real Yields Are Negative for $31 Trillion of Bonds https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-08/jpmorgan-says-real-yields-are-negative-for-31-trillion-of-bonds

Outstanding! Very complimentary to the global perspectives of Peter Zehan.

I wasn't expecting much from this, but this video was very informative. Thanks Fredrik and Raoul. Hopefully, you can have Fredrik back on again in the future. Two thumbs up gents! Maybe Steve Segal will get a lifetime achievement Oscar in the future!

So what is the big driver of gold/bitcoin if we are structurally headed into more and more deflation in the coming decade? If Japan is the "basket case" and they have not been able to create inflation, how is Europe or the U.S. supposed to do it in large enough amounts that forces people out of the monetary system and into hard assets like gold and bitcoin? Is the gold/bitcoin trade based on some "future hope of inflation" or a stronger thesis of structural inflation (which is the exact opposite of the case made in this video). Thanks

Excellent interview and superb information on demographics to help build our long term macro framework. Freddie’s opinions backed up by data and charts. You don’t hear this stuff anywhere else. Nice job!!

Are you able to put the chapters/topics back in the interview for ya to click around?

I love the Swiss decided it’s not all about GDP growth anymore and focus on per capita GDP. The focus purely on GDP ends up with social chaos, lwhere governments view their population as units of GDP instead of citizens of a coherent country that is something worth preserving across time. Hopefully, more countries will follow the Swiss on this.

So Germany accidentally let in a million young-ish people during the Syrian refugee crisis who have a desire to improve their lives and can learn German/skill up and contribute to the economy (and have big families). Does that delay the inevitable for a Germany by many years? Should Europe be doing that systematically (eg African immigrants) if their politics will allow it?

Bring fridik to plus!

So we basically have two great forces battling each other. On one side we have aging demographics and high debts, which is deflationary and is pushing asset allocation toward government bonds, but this force coupled with switching to bonds will eventually create a slow growth to no growth dynamic which should bring equities down. But on the other side of the force is central bank printing of money to counter the deflationary force of demographics and debt so that equities do not deflate and keep retirement accounts whole. I wish Fredrik went into asset allocation for the future, but from what I understood (correct me if I am wrong) your portfolio should be invested in Tech because there is little growth and tech is the only industry that has growth, gold, and bitcoin because of central bank money printing, and look for opportunities in emerging markets with good demographics, and limit your exposure to bonds but they are a necessary evil to stabilize the volatility of the portfolio and act like cash.

An ounce of gold cost 30,000 yen in 2001 and now costs 200,000 yen.... That's interesting

Awesome interview, I wouldnt mind seeing more of Fredrik in the future please.

It would be great if you could provide the slides with the links to the publicly available source material. That way we can tinker and play around. Cheers

Great insights!

What do Millennials do? Vote in a government that's going to give them MMT. (?) Does anyone know what gold demand has done in Japan and other countries with seriously aging demographics? Maybe gold demand only goes up in these countries when there are lack of alternatives in growth and yield. What you reckon happens to "hard" asset prices if governments focus on GDP/Capita (management)? Probably does very well on the way to this realization (long time), but once government and CB mentality changes, one ends up in a very different situation. Why would anyone want to own asset? New textbooks would need to be written. What happens to hard assets if/when IMF/World Bank etc. get together and create a crypto currency (valued against a basket of FX), and distribute it (Universal basic Income), but if you (and governments) accept this currency, into your IMF wallet, you'll only be able to spend it on certain, approved things. Education, food, accommodation, health. Hopefully an enlightenment where tech runs the world and humans look after the environment and meditate. Good wine makers will do well.

Great Conversations .....One thing i a can add being from India is that ...... Hydrocarbons have been a big headache for India in the last 40 years .....that one thing (energy cost) not shooting up should help the next few decades

I learned a ton and will certainly rewatch. Thanks for taking the time to share this deep dive!

Fantastic interview

Excellent content. Would love to hear more about India.

Great interview. So many possible short-term outcomes. I certainty do not know which way to jump. In the long run demographics will be the play. We will be ready. DLS

Thank you very much! Incredibly interesting views on the future and maybe a few hints at the answers of how we got here. With the reduction in energy costs and technology opening up access to education (RV is a great example, but so is Youtube or online university courses). Can we not expect more from demographically young populations, particularly in regards to innovation? The same reason the US has performed so well..., their system forces their population to strive for a better life, which results in education and innovation which is what has improved GDP. The other thought I had during this discussion, is at some point that aging population loses it's influence on the popular vote and there will be a transfer of wealth back to the younger poorer cohort. Forced devaluations in specific asset classes... The young will not always choose to pay for the old to live comfortably.

Phenomenal discussion!

(Another) Excellent interview, Raoul. Thanks Fredrik. The idea that a lot of this is deterministic is hard to ignore. COVID and immigration is a tricky consideration.

Can it be American exceptionalism that keep them thinking what happens in Japan and Europe won't be arriving on shore? Like how virus is not my issue back in January! When I talk to my retired friends who see their 401(k) statements are in great shape they ask what crisis!

Jeez, not even 50% through this one and I know I'm going to watch it again. This captures the slow, drip, drip, drip, and the inevitable. Dang it! Thirty-five years ago, I had a friend who was an actuary in training. We talked about this stuff. Here we are, 35 later now, and the bug is flying along the country road, and then....

+1 For the mentioned book "The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies," primary author Erik Brynjolfsson. The primary author, Mr. Brynjolfsson, is active on the twit with ongoing, insightful thoughts.

What about Australia as an immigration destination for these South East Asian countries?

If possible I would like to see more from Fredrik Nerbrand in the future. This was a brilliant interview!

Very interesting conversation! Thanks a lot Fredrik & Raoul!

40:25 "Debt: grow/inflate/default your way out." 2020 asks us how about you just print your way out? Fresh fiat pays the debt, its velocity remaining low there's little inflation. Confidence is maintained by the CB buying every bond.

Thank you RV. Is the US National Debt now the US National Asset? If we go along the lines of the perpetual bond, will the principal of US corporate balance sheet debt will ever be repaid? It feels like the debt on balance sheets has become one big revolving line of credit.

Superb