Demographics II: Tailwinds and Tenterhooks

Published on
October 12th, 2020
Duration
79 minutes

Demographics II: Tailwinds and Tenterhooks

The Big Picture ·
Featuring Amlan Roy

Published on: October 12th, 2020 • Duration: 79 minutes

Global macro investing is one of the most complex styles of allocating capital, as the data sets one has at their fingertips is just so large: non-farm payrolls, currency volatility, even high-frequency foot traffic. In this interview, Amlan Roy, head of global macro research at State Street Global Advisors, speaks to Real Vision CEO about how incorporating demographics within one's macro framework can help find the signal in the noise and give investors an edge. Roy discusses how demographic patterns map onto common macro data, such as growth rates, discount rates, savings rates, as well as interest rates, the ultimate macro statistic. This is the second installment in Raoul's multi-part exploration into how demographics affects global economics and finance. Filmed on September 14, 2020. For Raoul's first interview with chief investment officer Fredrik Nerbrand, click here: https://www.realvision.com/shows/the-big-picture/videos/demographics-i-pensions-in-crisis.

Comments

Transcript

  • TS
    Theodoros S.
    15 October 2020 @ 20:56
    In other words, buy Russia, Buy China, Buy Finland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark.!
  • TS
    Theodoros S.
    15 October 2020 @ 20:12
    What is the notch he is talking about
  • ar
    andrew r.
    14 October 2020 @ 14:18
    Positive interest rates, yes. Positive inflation, more fiscal, NO.
  • KS
    K S.
    14 October 2020 @ 02:50
    fantastic interview, would love to hear from him in the future.
  • DT
    Daniel T.
    13 October 2020 @ 22:24
    Nice rings!
  • PG
    Philippe G.
    13 October 2020 @ 19:57
    Great points on the multi-generational households and retirees/baby boomers supporting their descendants...when it comes to spending quality time with the grandchildren, money becomes no object for boomers with deep pockets...
  • ds
    durgesh s.
    13 October 2020 @ 14:14
    Very Well conducted Interview ,Pl see if you can organise the Transcript of this one , thanks
  • LK
    Lauri K.
    13 October 2020 @ 08:38
    This was a thought provoking interview and Mr. Roy seems like an absolute expert. Unfortunately the conclusions he made and suggested actions to take do not reflect the facts he himself expressed. This left me very puzzled. As a citizen from a Nordic country, I really can't see how in the perspective of demographics we will be a "winner". In fact, the demographics are just about worst in the world and except of Norway, even Italians hold more personal wealth. The growth has been slower than the rest of Europe for the 2010s and seems to trend downwards for the first half of 2020s
  • DT
    Daniel T.
    13 October 2020 @ 07:52
    We need these kind of series to be able to think outside of the box. Raoul, have you considered doing a series on social aspects of the current crisis? I think this aspect is underrated, yet over the past few years, the wealth gap and the social divide gave us Brexit, Trump, riots, affordability of housing, etc..
  • HR
    Humberto R.
    12 October 2020 @ 15:16
    Ok interview, some good thoughts, but he ends it with a very dangerous idea which is: the older one gets (closer one gets to some average dying age) the less his/her vote should count. Wow. Talk about near nearsightedness without an appreciation for secondary and tertiary knock on effects of a policy like that. Sprinkled throughout is a common thread of forcing outcomes for more women and minority representation on boards, workplace etc. and yet claims he is a capitalist at heart. I'll leave it at that.
    • TN
      Tim N.
      12 October 2020 @ 21:17
      I thought the same too- odd juxtaposition of woke bollocks with ageism. I suppose you have espouse these views to get a gig in todays power structures.
    • DS
      David S.
      12 October 2020 @ 23:07
      I am old and I hope voting more wisely than when I was 30. Dr. Roy is using the data correctly. The problem is real. I think a better solutions can be found. DLS
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      13 October 2020 @ 01:39
      Voting patterns of the median, 72-year old American voter seek to capture and put in amber the current status quo. This is at odds of the need for a dynamic country that needs to continue to be able to grow, to make available opportunity to generations who are younger. When I listen to older Americans, they are cranky. Bitter. Not at all interested in solving problems. I'm talking about the median. Our country has enough trouble changing and adapting, e.g., no solution in decades to immigration, Social Security "insolvency", pension busts, systemic racism, the costs of incarceration, failed wars, and so on. Fact is, the median voter (all voters considered) in American is to the left of the Government and don't have enough of a voice. We are not governing with wisdom. The older age American's have failed America. Sorry. Not to attack the Baby Boomers, but they've torn down the institutions that they used to make their lives better while also not thinking about the generations to come. Maybe this is just history and it's always been this way. I don't know. We need new ideas and the wisdom to know that we need to change how we govern ourselves.
    • MH
      Martin H.
      13 October 2020 @ 02:11
      Talk about a great way to trash ANY inherent wisdom a society has built.
    • DS
      David S.
      13 October 2020 @ 02:47
      PHILLIP B. - You need a wider audience of older people. I certainly agree that the US is not governed by wisdom. Wisdom has been out of fashion for a good while. In my opinion the problem is not old/young but in a sense of community. Representative republics work when the common good is promoted. We have painted ourselves into a corner. It is just a matter of time before the things fall apart. If we are allowed to pick up the pieces, we might do better. Normally when republics fail, dictatorships take over. I wish I could offer some wisdom on how to accomplish this. I know it is not letting the wealthy on the left and right tear us apart with the "news" of the day. Good luck. DLS
  • MS
    Mark S.
    13 October 2020 @ 02:34
    This was an extremely interesting interview Raoul
  • MS
    Mark S.
    13 October 2020 @ 02:33
    This was an extremely interesting interview Raoul
  • GK
    Gautam K.
    13 October 2020 @ 01:34
    Amlan Roy - pure brilliance!
  • WS
    William S.
    13 October 2020 @ 00:16
    Thoroughly enjoyable - wonderful insights.
  • WS
    William S.
    12 October 2020 @ 23:18
    I thoroughly enjoyed this thought-provoking monologue as RP was resplendent in his admiring reticence. However, two observations: Dr. Roy was keen to associate with a variety of elites, but not with Neil Howe; and my lone fact-check on Gates-Jobs-Khosla 3 week birthday span revealed a wider dispersion. I look forward to his next appearance on RV.
  • DS
    David S.
    12 October 2020 @ 23:01
    Excellent insights from someone who observes, analyzes, and thinks through actual demographics in the short, medium, and long term. This is not the "astrology" approach we see in the Fourth Turning which uses a few facts and observations to create fancies of the mind. Change happens! Embrace it! You must get into the weeds to have any chance of understanding or effecting change. Dr. Roy uses observations and mathematics to understand demographics as a basis to make logical decisions that can used to effect change. The debt super cycle, the pandemic, fiat currencies, elections and global trade policies have a much wider impact on Macro than generational differences. People anchoring to beliefs simply because they are their beliefs are not predictive or helpful. We may not agree on the changes that need to be made, but we can start with the facts to discuss the alternatives. This is the difference in the science/mathematics of demographics and Halloween. I know that I am in a small minority when it comes to the Fourth Turning in RVTV family. For me Astrology is fun. For me Nostradamus is fun. For me conspiracy theories are fun. For me, the earth is flat is demonstrably wrong. None of them are scientific, mathematical, or capable of predicting change. For me, the Fourth Turning is at best a marketing tool and/or a drinking game. I will listen to the Fourth Turning presentation on RVTV, but I will do my absolute best not to comment as my views are now well known. Have fun! DLS
  • PH
    Philip H.
    12 October 2020 @ 16:00
    Raoul, the answer to the pensions problem is Tontine pools grouped by date of birth managed on blockchain tech. You then just have to out live your peers and your quality of life keeps going up.....Job done!
    • DS
      David S.
      12 October 2020 @ 20:24
      Current zero to negative interest rates do not support a risk averse tontine for retirement. If you wanted to set up a risky tontine by invest in stocks or Bitcoin you can do that on your own. Purchase a life insurance policy and buy what you like. That way your estate is sure to get the funds from the insurance buy policy - if solvent at your death . You do not need to live the longest. DLS
  • jh
    jason h.
    12 October 2020 @ 20:00
    Interesting how Amlan did not back up India being the demographic shining star....and instead went with countries that consciously maximize the productivity of their young citizenRyan. Summarizing this out loud more to ask did I get that right or was he trying to point to something else? Amlan answers feel a bit like a rubiks cube puzzle to solve
  • TE
    Tito E.
    12 October 2020 @ 18:18
    That was an excellent discussion. Thanks Amlan!
  • JI
    JWD I.
    12 October 2020 @ 12:57
    Another great one RV!!! Just finished drinking a full pot of coffee going through it. Will need to watch several more times along with the other interviews about demographics and with people like Jeff Booth. The rabbit trail around all of this goes deep...
  • PU
    Peter U.
    12 October 2020 @ 11:57
    Excellent
    • VD
      Vishal D.
      12 October 2020 @ 12:56
      if you get anything out of this talk it is the fact that no one has any idea what is going to happen so always be hedging
  • BL
    Benoit L.
    12 October 2020 @ 10:50
    This instalment gets deep into the weeds of demographics, which is fine if you are a bit of an information geek like me. I gave it a thumbs-up for the detailed insight in that field I gained throughout the discussion. I must say however that I am not that convinced with Amlan's suggestion of fiscal policy to solve the deflation trap we find ourselves in. Recent data would suggest otherwise and I am also thinking about Jeff Booth's thesis on the overwhelming deflationary effects of technology. If you are looking for more actionable information, you should leave it at the first excellent instalment with Fedrick Nerbrand which was more engaging and thought provoking.
  • RC
    Ralph C.
    12 October 2020 @ 10:16
    Simply brilliant!!