History as a Compass — Coronavirus, Financial Crashes, and Lessons from the Past

Published on
April 24th, 2020
Duration
130 minutes

History as a Compass — Coronavirus, Financial Crashes, and Lessons from the Past

The Big Picture ·
Featuring Jamie Catherwood, Scott Nations, James Grant, and Jim Chanos

Published on: April 24th, 2020 • Duration: 130 minutes

How does the impact of coronavirus compare to financial and economic crashes from the past? In the second episode of “The Big Picture,” Real Vision takes viewers on a journey through the history of financial crises and crashes. History may not repeat itself, but understanding how we got here will help us understand where we are headed. To that end, Jamie Catherwood of O’Shaughnessy Asset Management speaks to Scott Nations, president of Nationshares and author of “A History of the United States in Five Crashes,” Jim Grant, legendary financial reporter and founder of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, and Jim Chanos, president of Kynikos Associates, famed fund manager, and master short seller. Nations breaks down the similarities between today and the Panic of 1907 and lessons from his book, Grant explains why the financial panic caused by coronavirus is reminiscent of the Panic of 1825, and Chanos shares his perspective on financial markets during previous crises. Filmed April 15-17, 2020.

Comments

Transcript

  • JS
    J S.
    27 April 2020 @ 21:06
    hi Jamie, thank you for interviews on RV. what is Jim Chanos twitter?
    • SA
      Said A.
      1 May 2020 @ 07:44
      @Wallstcynic
  • CD
    Cheryl D.
    27 April 2020 @ 00:11
    Great job Jamie!!
    • JC
      Jamie C. | Contributor
      29 April 2020 @ 15:42
      Thank you, Cheryl! All credit to the great guests
  • DV
    Dimitri V.
    27 April 2020 @ 03:00
    I like the old style tv of the interviewer. very well done great job!
    • JC
      Jamie C. | Contributor
      29 April 2020 @ 15:39
      Thanks, Dimitri! Glad you enjoyed!
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    29 April 2020 @ 06:57
    Hope this doesn’t sound patronising. It’s not meant to be at all. Jamie you’re super impressive for your age. Admirable. Very well done.
    • JC
      Jamie C. | Contributor
      29 April 2020 @ 15:37
      Not patronizing in the slightest! That's incredibly nice of you to say, and I'm grateful for the kind words! Glad you enjoyed
  • YZ
    Young Z.
    24 April 2020 @ 13:49
    Why doesn't this video appear on the iOS app?
    • JS
      Jim S.
      24 April 2020 @ 14:56
      None of the RV Plus do, I assume they know this and will be updating the app in the future though
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      24 April 2020 @ 15:24
      Yes, we are scrambling to get the app replaced...
    • AT
      Ankit T.
      24 April 2020 @ 18:54
      Can you please fix app on Amazon Prime as well.
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      29 April 2020 @ 06:59
      The app is a nightmare, I just use the browser on my phone now. A hassle, but at least you get the content. Happy to hear the app’s going to be replaced!! :)
  • TS
    Tim S.
    29 April 2020 @ 04:20
    Is there any person on earth more enjoyable to listen to than Jim Grant? Wow. Read his books, subscribe to IRO, and listen to his podcasts, always entertaining and some new nugget.
  • BP
    Bob P.
    28 April 2020 @ 02:17
    For some reason this video keeps freezing up on me. Apparently not one I will get to watch.
  • JO
    Johnny O.
    27 April 2020 @ 19:06
    Wow they just suddenly decided charitably that we needed a Federal Reserve after JP Morgan saved the economy from the 1907 crash. It wasn't a multi-decade campaign to revive a scheme of debt-based money issuance by a private cartel of banks, facilitated by Morgan's manipulation of bank credit to create the crash and by their cultivation of Woodrow Wilson? Anyway, good thing that debt didn't grow out of control, the currency has been stable and there weren't subsequently any crashes.
  • CT
    Crispim T.
    24 April 2020 @ 17:43
    Jim Chanos? Hm I always have trouble taking advice from a guy who has been totally rekt shorting TSLA for years and doesn't give up. A Chanos+Roubini talk would be cool. TSLA+BTC, both shorted non-stop buy these two who have been wrong for 10+ years and refuse to stop their propaganda.
    • CT
      Crispim T.
      24 April 2020 @ 17:44
      He's a good counter-signal too however. Whatever Chanos sells, bet against.
    • PD
      Peter D.
      24 April 2020 @ 19:46
      Maybe because he has balls. You know - Skin in the Game. He is in the fight, battered, bruised, sometimes early, sometimes completely wrong. But he is playing the game. There are more lessons in Chanos's mistakes, than there are among half of RV's keyboard cowboys combined.
    • GS
      George S.
      24 April 2020 @ 19:48
      Wrecked by $TSLA?! What do you mean? Jim has returned 27% annualised since 1996 running a dedicated short book. The way short funds work is by having around 200 short positions sized at around 0.5% each. Rewatch some of John Hempton's earlier RV interviews for a detailed explanation. These guys might be all over the news hammering a stock, but in reality they have a tiny fraction of their funds short that stock. The ones that are concentrated short are typically already out of business.
    • OC
      Otto C.
      25 April 2020 @ 00:10
      Chanos is not wrong, he is just too early.
    • DJ
      D J.
      25 April 2020 @ 09:36
      Crispim, please have a look at delinquincy rates on autoloans and auto globaly
    • DB
      Drew B. | Real Vision
      27 April 2020 @ 17:15
      Hi Crispim, I feel like you are throwing the baby out with the bathwater. You seem to be discounting the value of the ideas of a wonderful professional short seller simply because a single, albeit noteworthy, trade went against him. You are seriously limiting your own conception of how to use Real Vision. None of the legendary investors that most of us want to hear from have a perfect track record. Holistically, Jim's track record is fantastic as George S. pointed out. Every investor whether famous or not, inevitably has trades go against them. That is part of why we have so many different persepctives on Real Vision - balance. Telsa is a hard stock to tell which direction it is headed, up or down. I think you should avoid calling one of the most successful short sellers of all time sticking to his guns, on a trade that has so far gone against him, propaganda. If you want to have a discussion on what specifically went wrong in Jim's thesis, that is one thing, but just calling his opinion propaganda is not productive and does not reflect well on you. It is ok to disagree, but it is not ok to insult. No trader has a 100% track record. Hell, Michael Jordan missed many more shots than he ever made. Most professional investors have a process wherein they can be right only a percentage of the time, and still make money. Throwing out all of Jim's insight because you disagree on Tesla is damaging to your own investment process. There is a lot to learn from Jim even if he is wrong once or twice! I think Nouriel and Chanos would be a dynamite pairing, and as Jim Grant says, "Successful investing is having everyone agree with you... later." There is still time for the Tesla trade to play out.
  • KB
    Kevin B.
    27 April 2020 @ 16:18
    Great series of thoughtful and interesting interviews!
  • DS
    David S.
    26 April 2020 @ 19:20
    Every time the Fed tried to normalize interest rate after 2008 the market would tank. Fed should have been stronger, but it was reacting to temper tantrums by the market, Congress and the Administration. It is always easy to blame the Fed, but that is not where the problems start. DLS
  • GL
    G L.
    24 April 2020 @ 10:53
    A very interesting set of interviews - thank you Jamie!
    • JC
      Jamie C. | Contributor
      26 April 2020 @ 19:14
      Thanks for watching! But all credit to these fascinating guests!
  • hb
    henry b.
    24 April 2020 @ 21:49
    How can anyone complain about the length of these interviews when we have complete control at our end!! Just a joy to listen to these characters! Thanks Jaimie & Raoul! Henry Bauld
    • MB
      Matt B.
      25 April 2020 @ 06:47
      There are always the complainers!
    • JC
      Jamie C. | Contributor
      26 April 2020 @ 19:12
      Thank you, Henry! Glad you enjoyed! Jamie
  • DS
    David S.
    26 April 2020 @ 19:00
    Mr. Nations quote about the trust banks in 1906 in reference to San Fransico; “There were really savings and loan that had been grafted onto a hedge fund. And by that, I mean they took those sorts of risks that hedge funds might take, which are just not appropriate at all for something that is supposed to be, we will call it, a bank.” It appears that all our modern bank regulations are not as good as we think. The same thing happened in the US with the Savings and Loan Crisis, the 2008 Mortgage Backed Security Crisis, and I believe that it will be revealed that the major international banks were part of the Repo Crisis hidden in the background. It seems like those pesky banks get into trouble whenever they are given too much rope – or should I say leverage. DLS
  • AP
    Alfonso P.
    26 April 2020 @ 17:02
    could we have a full series of Mr. Chanos classes?
  • PS
    Panos S.
    26 April 2020 @ 09:05
    Great interviews but please use a better mic.
  • BC
    Burton C.
    26 April 2020 @ 03:53
    In addition to the comment below I would suggest using a lapel mike rather than a computer mike to make it more professional
  • TS
    Theodoros S.
    24 April 2020 @ 19:48
    I really do not understand why Scott Nation describes options strategies as important. If you believe in good businesses growth and you are optimistic about humanity, USA and capitalism then why you need options. The only strategy I believe is be long good businesses. Do not forget Buffets quote: "Options are financial weapons of mass destruction"
    • MT
      Mike T.
      25 April 2020 @ 12:54
      Oh dear. you have much to learn. The only downside to Options: to become competent, and knowledgeable at an average level takes a lot of dedicated hard work typically 2 years. To even achieve being able to make an informed initial judgment is the effort of two years work potentially going to be worth it in the end, one needs to immerse oneself in the subject on a daily basis for three months minimum. Sorry to pick on you, nothing personal, but there are many misinformed folks about. IMHO the world of Options in particular, of how to be potentially self sufficient in trading and investing should be taught at University
    • MT
      Mike T.
      25 April 2020 @ 13:01
      ......of course if Universities did teach this stuff to young folks in the end there would be more financiall educated people around and less need for 'experts' selling expensive financial services. Rant over.
  • RT
    Rob T.
    25 April 2020 @ 00:17
    Good interviews. One suggestion about video format: Could you please use a neutral background rather than the grain background? It is distracting and makes watching the vid eo difficult.
  • IZ
    Ileana Z.
    24 April 2020 @ 22:51
    This was absolutely fantastic! A primer on the history of financial markets PLUS tying it in to the present crisis. Those who fail to learn from history are condemned to repeat it. Great interviews. Thank you.
  • DM
    Dominic M.
    24 April 2020 @ 22:43
    Great discussions - I appreciate the format. I'd be curious to watch one on inflation/deflation if possible.
  • GF
    Gordon F.
    24 April 2020 @ 22:25
    A great set of interviews, but why not post each one separately? The length would have been more convenient to listen to, and it would be easier to go back to a specific interview. And each one easily would have fit into the normal time range for an RV interview. Today I happened to have time to listen to the whole thing, but there are a lot of days that I would have skipped it just due to the length.
  • hb
    henry b.
    24 April 2020 @ 21:55
    to Theodore S i believe Buffet was referring to CDOs not options Henry Buld
  • LO
    Luke O.
    24 April 2020 @ 15:47
    What an absolute treat!
  • MK
    MOHIT K.
    24 April 2020 @ 12:53
    Where is subtitles??
  • SS
    S S.
    24 April 2020 @ 12:30
    Would have been better if you separated this into 3 interviews with chapters that can skip to. Its just too long.
  • WC
    Warren C.
    24 April 2020 @ 11:23
    Too deep for me.haha.I can't watch this in one go.