Gold & The Dollar Part 1

Published on
October 9th, 2017
Duration
25 minutes


Gold & The Dollar Part 1

The Big Story ·
Featuring Brent Johnson

Published on: October 9th, 2017 • Duration: 25 minutes

Is the recent breakout in gold the start of the next bull market? Or is a return to form for the dollar going to stifle that surge? Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital is on a mission to find out. In Part 1 of this series, Brent speaks with a number of highly regarded gold commentators to build a consensus view. In Part 2 he digs deeper into the dollar’s outlook. Finally, in Part 3, Brent wraps everything together with an in-depth interview with gold market expert, Peter Schiff

Comments

  • Pc
    Porter c.
    10 October 2017 @ 22:49
    We need to hear a rational gold bear's perspective.
    • aa
      asdfasdf a.
      11 October 2017 @ 09:01
      second. devil's advocate always has value
    • MD
      M D.
      16 October 2017 @ 09:25
      Third. Real Vision has never put forward the bear case.
  • EC
    Edward C.
    14 October 2017 @ 12:13
    Big fan of the topic as well as Brent. RV does it again! I think Grant has mentioned it a couple of times but it's crucial for people to think about and understand the difference between exposure to gold and exposure to the price of gold. In terms of generational time horizon, I would advise all to ensure you hold some physical. No doubt those coins will have at least some purchasing power when passed to the grand kids and out of the system! Same cannot be said for the principal returning on those 100 year bonds. That is the exposure to gold I want long term. Different to exposure to the price of hold i.e. Making/losing pnl on the price be it though GLD, miners, options etc. And in this space, I would warn all to be wary of the leveraged ETFs. Most retail investors are not aware that they re-hedge daily. If market is choppy with lack of momentum, the decay will be painful.
  • AH
    Andreas H.
    13 October 2017 @ 15:22
    Interesting!
  • MN
    Mark N.
    9 October 2017 @ 18:16
    Quite annoying habit that Brent and I seem to share; to fill the micro gaps between sentences with "hmhm" and "yep". Other than that solid piece. Simon stood to out me, he's so eloquent.
    • BJ
      Brent J. | Contributor
      12 October 2017 @ 18:32
      This is a great comment...didn't even realize it was happening. Thanks for the feedback...will do better!
  • GB
    Grant B.
    10 October 2017 @ 00:18
    You should have interviewed Michael Oliver of MSA.
    • DB
      David B.
      12 October 2017 @ 13:22
      Coming in part 2 !
  • GR
    Guido R.
    12 October 2017 @ 03:07
    If all countries are debasing their currencies, is that not US$ positive? If countries have sold sovereign debt in US$ over the past 10 / 20 years, is it not counterproductive to debase their currencies? Do they have a choice? If global pension funds and sovereigns are loaded to the gills with US bonds and treasuries, do you feel the Fed will assist them by maintaining the exchange value of the US$ low?
  • WS
    William S.
    9 October 2017 @ 20:30
    Why the heavy metal segues? Makes it feel a bit too much like 'Wayne's World'. Something a bit more professional?
    • MS
      Matt S.
      10 October 2017 @ 13:42
      it's "modern" William
    • CH
      Calvin H.
      11 October 2017 @ 23:52
      I am with you..overly dramatic. Head bangin. 😎
  • CH
    Calvin H.
    11 October 2017 @ 23:34
    Yeah! Peter Schiff coming up!
  • SS
    Suresh S.
    11 October 2017 @ 14:51
    I don't think anyone will argue the importance of having exposure to gold be through physical or equities. The argument that I would like to hear is why would gold not fall as in the past each time USD rallies, more often than not, this would likely occur. Also with the cost of holding gold being higher than holding cryptocurrency, why wouldn't gold price fall first before a strong bull rally? Based on ISM, the market is likely to go higher with new orders showing higher numbers, which at least in the short term, gold could fall further as the masses will likely take on the risk in equities.
  • MS
    Matt S.
    10 October 2017 @ 13:53
    24 minute video about lack of public interest in gold...... less than 30 seconds about Bitcoin? You guys.... lol
    • PR
      Paolo R.
      10 October 2017 @ 14:24
      Bitcoin is a fraud and can be debunked... no point in waisting my time listening to talking about pokemon coins.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      10 October 2017 @ 18:26
      Its a gold series in three parts. We have plenty of bitcoin content too and have been big supporters since we launched in 2014.
    • MS
      Matt S.
      11 October 2017 @ 07:14
      Okey dokey
    • MS
      Matt S.
      11 October 2017 @ 07:15
      Paolo R - please! Let's hear your debunking.
  • ss
    sean s.
    10 October 2017 @ 23:26
    In my opinion, the major headwinds that retail coin dealers are experiencing year-to-date can be attributed to the rise in Bitcoin and other Crypto Currencies. I know, it's a simple explanation, but I think its an accurate one. Gold may be up 12% but some Altcoins are up as much as 6000% and that is very alluring for investors that have seen their investments go mostly sideways for years. Cryptos are also seen by some (not all) in the gold community as a hedge against central banks and something out of government reach, which are attributes that are attractive to gold and silver bugs.
  • KA
    Kelly A.
    10 October 2017 @ 22:01
    Did i miss the transcript?
  • DF
    Dave F. | Contributor
    10 October 2017 @ 15:22
    As of this AM....getting a nice bounce higher in gold/GLD off the trend-line I noted in the video....patience still required. Move is impulsive (good to see) and above $123.30-$124.90 would really put the bulls in a good position.
  • AF
    Andrew F.
    10 October 2017 @ 11:48
    There is real potential to the upside if you do your research and be patient for the move. I believe it's soon. Thanks for another great insight. Can't wait for the next two parts. Thanks again RV.
  • JC
    Joel C.
    10 October 2017 @ 05:16
    Good piece, nice and succinct. But how about a more general 'precious metals' segment, rather than the full focus on Gold? Yes Silver was mentioned a few times, but for novices not enough context to enable an investment thesis in my mind. i await parts 2 and 3 with interest.
  • CS
    C S.
    10 October 2017 @ 03:04
    There are 187k tons of gold mined. A portion is held by central banks. Unless there are thousands of tons of unpurchased, warehoused physical stock, its interesting to think that all of that gold is owned by somebody. Interesting also that the LBMA trades annual physical production-equivalent on a daily basis. It is curious, for a commodity that isnt consumed, why such a large paper market exists (surely demand/supply issues can be settled by price alone?). This goes into this perspective in greater detail. http://fofoa.blogspot.hk/2017/05/how-gold-is-different.html
  • gg
    gurdeep g.
    9 October 2017 @ 20:58
    Simon Mikhailovich... a real G! Keep it up RV
  • EL
    Elizabeth L.
    9 October 2017 @ 18:24
    Thank you Brent for this update on gold and the dollar. For me, this was a very valuable piece. I would appreciate you doing this type of update on a regular timely basis. I like the fact that you talked with many of our RealVision contributors to keep us up to date on their thinking. Great Job!
    • EL
      Elizabeth L.
      9 October 2017 @ 20:36
      I wish to add that for those who are newer to RealVision, it might be helpful in these updates to add links to the earlier interviews where the interviewees have fleshed out their thesis.
  • NI
    Nate I.
    9 October 2017 @ 19:52
    I was looking at the US Mint numbers that Simon Mikhailovich cited. You can get them here - I shortened the URL because it's elephantine (http://tinyurl.com/yc6n3rau). I see where Simon obtained his value of 315,000 for 2003, but if anyone understands how the US Mint adds 96000 + 72000 + 56500 + 33000 + 2000 + 7000 + 24500 + 14000 + 14000 + 56000 + 47000 + 46000 and obtains 315000, I would like to understand their methodology. I'll watch for replies. Maybe it's calendar versus fiscal or something. Thanks.
  • CD
    Chris D.
    9 October 2017 @ 16:07
    Great info. But, no investment story on gold/silver is complete without addressing the (for some, big) elephant in the room: gold manipulation. For those of us who pay attention, the price manipulation (i.e. suppression) is blatantly obvious. A predictable ramp of the USD/JPY every single day (on a given time essentially), recurring smashes during hours of low liquidity and outright intervention to "allow" or "cap" the maximum of +1% (on the upside) a single day for gold (a smash of +3% is on the other hand highly welcomed). They have done a great job on absolutely killing sentiment and "painting" the technical picture as they so please. Sorry guys, but I used to believe that we would wake up one day and see the free-market overthrow the cartel. First at that point would a true price discovery emerge. In reality, the paper game is the only game in town. No matter how much I yearn for sound money and freedom, it seems that the will of the general public is towards FRNs, debt and an ever-expanding credit cycle. I have tried to reason the "Hugh Henry"-way with the notion of a world that is "gradually healing" and that "everything is fine no matter what the 'doomsayers' predict". But once you recognize the epic scale of the malinvestments (pension funds, retail investors, China, European fixed income, etc), the exponential expansion of the balance sheets of G5-central banks and the complete lack of credibility of government statistics, you will see danger everywhere. When also realizing that the price of free market money (i.e. gold/silver) is rigged to the downside, there is only one choice: spend it. Or accept the eternal erosion of purchasing power. Or gamble in bitcoin. Or in the S&P 500. Sad, I know. And I feel truly sorry for the hard-working every-day Americans who tries to save in a game of monopoly. I guess they do call it "the Matrix" for a reason.
    • JL
      J L.
      9 October 2017 @ 17:20
      I honestly have never really understood the manipulation talk. There is only so much gold in the world and the reason you see flushes is because many people still enjoy going long (and short) with money (gold) they don't have. Look at the chart of this century and I don't think there is much reason to argue that anything has been capped. For the time being and until a crisis hits traditional portfolios don't expect a crazy performance, although it seems demand from Euro and Asian savers/retirees is good enough to keep it from falling for now. This will change if some day 60-40s are down 30% and gold is threatening 2k$ again as I do not see who the sellers of physical are going to be there. In theory cash should outperform gold in what would probably be a deflationary environment, but most on here I think are taking immediate debasement of currencies for granted in that scenario. What I really see gold as is the ultimate retirement asset for people who don't have the knowledge or mood to buy more sophisticated hard assets. Clearly Warren Buffett prefers rail lines, but if you are going to be watching telly for the next 20 years and just spending some money on food and energy why not use a commodity currency that has been correlated to your expenses for 3000 years? In the unlikely worst case scenario deflation kicks in and nothing is done about it you would have been better off holding cash/bonds but still shouldn't lose much purchasing power. That said, as someone under 30 I feel we need to be engaging in trying to find those real assets and equity with decent deflation/inflation protection that provide something to the world and hopefully give us at least some yield. Can't end without giving a huge thumbs up to Steve Diggle's videos on this topic, truly inspiring. And of course I still hold a big chunk of yellow rock as an option on everything, just so I can tell my neighbour and his 15 buy to lets on 10% equity I told you so.
  • JS
    John S.
    9 October 2017 @ 11:07
    Good but too short. Need to let these contributors expand on their thinking
    • TD
      Tom D.
      9 October 2017 @ 13:34
      Understood and appreciated, but I prefer the 30-minute format because we have only so much time each day...if further thought development is needed, bring on another 30 minutes sooner rather than later. Overall great info on a subject that interests me greatly, thanks.
    • MD
      Matt D.
      9 October 2017 @ 14:21
      "Part 1"
    • MJ
      Max J.
      9 October 2017 @ 16:13
      Yeah only part 1
  • AH
    Andrew H.
    9 October 2017 @ 15:38
    Meh. I will buy my 1-3% of net worth in physical gold in the next year or so. Will trade gold long and short above that. Nothing in this interview really changed my view, more focused on whether there will be another dollar spike to use as opportunity to buy. Was more confident of another dollar spike six months ago and fairly neutral today.
  • NI
    Nate I.
    9 October 2017 @ 15:09
    Always good to hear from Simon Mikhailovich. Hoping RV has him back for another full interview.
  • KS
    Kim S.
    9 October 2017 @ 13:20
    Great summary that the risk of not owning gold is greater than the risk of owning gold

Mark Yusko

Morgan Creek Capital Management, Co- Founder, CEO, & CIO

Mark Yuskois the Founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management. He is also the Managing Partner of Morgan Creek Digital Assets. Morgan Creek Capital Management was founded in 2004 and currently manages close to $2 billion in discretionary and non-discretionary assets. Prior to founding Morgan Creek, Mr. Yusko was CIO and Founder of UNC Management Company (UNCMC), the Endowment investment office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Before that, he was Senior Investment Director for the University of Notre Dame Investment Office.Mr. Yusko has been at the forefront of institutional investing throughout his career. An early investor in alternative asset classes at Notre Dame, he brought the Endowment Model of investing to UNC, which contributed to significant performance gains for the Endowment. The Endowment Model is the cornerstone philosophy of Morgan Creek, as is the mandate to Invest in Innovation. Mr. Yusko is again at the forefront of investing through Morgan Creek Digital Assets, which was formed in 2018. Morgan Creek Digital is an early stage investor in blockchain technology, digital currency and digital assets through the firm’s Venture Capital and Digital Asset Index Fund.Mr. Yusko received a BA with Honors from the University of Notre Dame and an MBA in Accounting and Finance from the University of Chicago.

Anthony Scaramucci

SkyBridge Capital, Founder & Co-Managing Partner

Prior to founding SkyBridge in 2005, Scaramucci co-founded investment partnership Oscar Capital Management, which was sold to Neuberger Berman, LLC in 2001. Earlier, he was a vice president in Private Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs & Co. In 2016, Scaramucci was ranked #85 in Worth Magazine’sPower 100: The 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. In 2011, he received Ernst & Young’s “Entrepreneur of the Year –New York” Award in the Financial Services category. Anthony is amember of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), vice chair of the Kennedy Center Corporate Fund Board, a board member of both The Brain Tumor Foundation and Business Executives for National Security (BENS), and a Trustee of the United States Olympic & Paralympic Foundation. He was a member of the New York City Financial Services Advisory Committee from 2007 to 2012. In November 2016, he was named to President-Elect Trump’s 16-person Presidential Transition Team Executive Committee. In June 2017, he wasnamed the Chief Strategy Officer of the EXIM Bank. He served as the White House Communications Director for a period in July 2017. Scaramucci, a native of Long Island, New York, holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Tufts University and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School.

Michael Saylor

MicroStrategy, Co-Founder

Mr. Saylor is a technologist, entrepreneur, business executive, philanthropist, and best-selling author. He currently serves as Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Office of MicroStrategy, Inc. (MSTR). Since co-founding the company at the age of 24, Mr. Saylor has built MicroStrategy into a global leader in business intelligence, mobile software, and cloud-based services. In 2012, he authoredThe Mobile Wave: How Mobile Intelligence Will Change Everything, which earned a spot onThe NewYork TimesBest Sellers list. Mr. Saylor attended the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, receiving an S.B. in Aeronautics and Astronautics and an S.B. in Science, Technology, and Society.

Alex Saunders

Nugget's News, Founder & CEO

Alex Saunders is the founder and CEO of Nugget’s News, a digital media company focused on all things crypto. Alex has been captivated by cryptocurrency since 2012 and in 2017 he began educating globally on the benefits of cryptocurrency and how to safely acquireit. Nugget’s News has been listed as a top-20 podcast by Business Insider, ShapeShift and Lifehacker and has over 120k YouTube subscribers with 9 million total views.Alex is also heavily focused on his cryptocurrency education platform Collective Shift which currently serves over 4,500 members. provides his unique perspectives by utilising his expertise in fundamental analysis, technical analysis and market sentiment. He is working towards his mission of making it easier for everyone to understand the financial world.

James Putra

TradeStation Crypto, Inc., Sr. Director of Product Strategy

James helped launch TradeStation Crypto’s offeringwhichutilizesa true online brokerage model that self-directed investors and traders have come to expect for equities, futures,and foreign currency markets. He is a reputed crypto asset specialist and blockchain thought leader focused on helping people find innovativeways to participate in this space. He is active in the blockchain community with speaking engagements, TV appearances and mentoring.James has over 15 years of experience in the Fintech industry.

Raoul Pal

Real Vision, Co-Founder & CEO

Raoul Pal is the Co-Founder and CEO of Real Vision, the world’s pre-eminent financial media platform, which helps members understand the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy. Real Vision members also have access to Real Vision Crypto, a cryptocurrency and digital assets video channelwatched by over 80,000 people.In addition, Raoul has been publishing Global Macro Investor since January 2005 to provide original, high quality, quantifiable and easily readable research for the global macro investment community hedge funds, family offices, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. It draws on his considerable 31 years of experience in advising hedge funds and managing a global macro hedge fund. Global Macro Investor has one of the very best, proven track records of any newsletter in the industry, producing extremely positive returns in eight out of the last twelve years. He retired from managing client money at the age of 36 in 2004 and now lives in the tiny Caribbean island of Little Cayman in the Cayman Islands. Previously he co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. Raoul moved to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe. In this role, Raoul established strong relationships with many of the world’s pre-eminent hedge funds, learning from their styles and experiences. Other stop-off points on the way were NatWest Markets and HSBC, although hebegan his career by training traders in technical analysis.

Peter McCormack

What Bitcoin Did, Journalist

Peter McCormack is a full timejournalist/podcaster covering topics such as Freedom, Human Rights, Censorship and Bitcoin. Peter created and hosts the What Bitcoin Did Podcast, a twice-weekly Bitcoin podcast where he interviews experts in the world of Bitcoin development, privacy, investment and adoption. Launched in November of 2017, the podcast has grown to over 100 episodes with a guest list that is a testament to the diversity of knowledge and opinions that represent the broader Bitcoin community. Expanding his growing list of humaninterest recordings, documentaries and films Peter has recently launched theDefiancepodcast andDefianceTV.

Caitlin Long

Avanti Financial Group, Founder & CEO

22-year Wall Street veteran who has been active in bitcoin and blockchain since 2012. In 2018-20 she led the charge to make her native state of Wyoming an oasis for blockchain companies in the US, where she helped Wyoming enact 20 blockchain-enabling laws. From 2016-18 she jointly spearheaded a blockchain project for delivering market index data to Vanguard as chairman and president of Symbiont, an enterprise blockchain start-up. Caitlin ran Morgan Stanley’s pension solutions business (2007-2016), heldsenior roles at Credit Suisse (1997-2007) and began her career at Salomon Brothers (1994-1997). She is a graduate of Harvard Law School (JD, 1994), the Kennedy School of Government (MPP, 1994) and the University of Wyoming (BA, 1990).

Hunter Horsley

Bitwise Asset Management, CEO

Hunter Horsley is Chief Executive Officer of Bitwise Asset Management. Prior to Bitwise, he was a product manager at Facebook, working on advertiser products including the multibillion-dollar sponsored content ecosystem and ad breaks in videos. Before Facebook, Horlsey was a product manager at Instagram, responsible for multiple advertising products generating several hundred million dollars of revenue. He is a graduate of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, with a B.S. in economics. Recently, Horsley was named a member of Forbes’ 2019 “30 Under 30” list.

Luke Gromen

Forest For The Trees, Founder & President

Luke Gromen has 25 years of experience in equity research, equity research sales, and as a macro/thematic analyst.He is the founder and president of macro/thematic research firm FFTT, LLC, which he founded in early 2014 to address and leverage the opportunity he saw created by applying what clientsand former colleagues consistently described as a “unique ability to connect the dots” during a time when he saw an increasing “silo-ing” of perspectives occurring on Wall Street and in corporate America.FFTT caters to institutions and sophisticated individuals by aggregating a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks for his clients.Prior to founding FFTT, Luke was a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company, where he worked from 2006-14.At CRC, Luke worked in sales and edited CRC’s flagship weekly thematic research summary piece (“Straight from the Source”)for the firm’s clients.Prior to that,Luke was a partner at Midwest Research, where he worked in equity research and sales from 1996-2006.While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest’s widely-read weekly thematic summary (“Heard in the Midwest”) for the firm’s clients, in whichhe aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.Luke Gromen holds a BBA in Finance and Accounting from the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University.He earned the CFA designation in 2003.

Meltem Demirors

CoinShares, Chief Strategy Officer

Meltem Demirors is Chief Strategy Officer of CoinShares, an investment firm that manages billions in assets on behalf of a global investor base, and is a trusted partner to investors and entrepreneurs navigating the digital asset ecosystem. Meltemoversees the firm’s managed strategies group and its New York office and leads corporate development. Previously, she was part of the founding team of Digital Currency Group. As a veteran investor in the digital currency space, she has invested in over 250 companies in the ecosystem. Meltem is passionate about education and advocacy, and teaches the Oxford Blockchain Strategy Programme and co-chairs the WEF Cryptocurrency Council.