The Incredible Future of India

Published on
March 12th, 2018
Duration
33 minutes


The Incredible Future of India

The Big Story ·
Featuring Raoul Pal, Rahul Khanna, Dilip Cherian, Deepak Bagla, Harsh Gupta

Published on: March 12th, 2018 • Duration: 33 minutes

In this first part of a two-part series on India, Raoul Pal examines whether India has the potential to become the best macro investment of the next 20 years. The country has a young and dynamic population, and a government that wants to tap into this demographic dividend with an ambitious plan to grow its physical infrastructure and its digital footprint. Raoul takes a grand tour of the big themes that could drive the Indian economy powerfully forward.

Comments

  • gg
    gurdeep g.
    2 August 2020 @ 15:44
    Revisiting this in 2020. Parts of India undergoing serious gentrification such as tourist spots like Amritsar etc. After applying for a PIO, looking forward to buying a nice property or two in the old town. Its literally the price of a new car! A lot of talk on skilled workers and automation. Post Covid as the western world see's its workers, work more from home, there is a well skilled Indian ( of the growing middle class) that can now fight for your job. Food for thought
  • SP
    Steve P.
    26 July 2018 @ 16:23
    SEC MADE IT SO EVENTUALLY WE CAN BUY DIRECT NOT OTC! interglobeAviationLtd and = BSE: INDIGO SpiceJetLtd = SJET:IN BSEasOTC = https://www.thehindu.com/business/bse-is-first-indian-exchange-to-get-us-sec-recognition/article23906186.ece
  • JM
    James M.
    15 March 2018 @ 14:31
    In memory of the great Stephen Hawking who spent the last 10 years of his life try to convince the moronic self absorbed consumer societies of the West personified in the USA that the biosphere can not support the continued mindless consumption that has taken place over the last 70 years since the second world war without the total collapse of the human race and every other species dependent on it. Maybe the people in this piece could take a moment from their salvation of more mindless consumerism justified by continual growth to support not sustainable economies on a finite planet. It would be one thing if India/China where pursuing a truly radical approach and economies based on resource and waste ideology. Of course the criminal corporate parasitic entities will not allow such an approach and should Modi or any other leader seek that pursuit he will find immense pressure from the dominate Empire in place today via economic and if need be military intervention in the usual guise of fighting terrorism or supporting democracy bullshit. Coca Cola, Nestle, Bechtel etc have already secured or stolen would be a better description India's fresh water supplies as they have done in South America and other parts of the world. JPM, Goldman, Citi, HSBC etc will be salivating as the people in the video of the riches that can be stolen from a nation as vast and as rich as India and I don't see Modi stopping them if he even has the desire to do so which I doubt or he wouldn't be in power. So if we seek three or four more USAs and the taking on of debt to buy shit, you dont need and cant afford then we should all be really excited about the proposition of 2.4+ billion people in China and India living like the average moronic American. Who needs fresh water, air, and edible food when you got a ten bagger on the derivatized Indian ETF? RIP Stephen Hawking.
    • pd
      patrick d.
      17 March 2018 @ 22:22
      Right on...
    • SS
      Sam S.
      29 March 2018 @ 22:07
      Two biggest challenges in India: a) endemic and well-entrenched corruption that is prevalent in the entire spectrum of society b) extremely poor state of education (in the major part of interior India, which covers about 80% of its population)
  • DJ
    D J.
    18 March 2018 @ 06:39
    This opportunity will be significantly reduced when Trump implempts a mirrior tarrif.
  • GA
    Gustavo A.
    17 March 2018 @ 10:31
    Nobel-winner Paul Krugman warns India story could end with mass unemploymenthttps://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/nobel-winner-paul-krugman-warns-india-story-could-end-with-mass-unemployment/articleshow/63344124.cms
  • PB
    Pieter B.
    15 March 2018 @ 17:10
    ( some context: I only spent 3 months on the ground in India yet have visited 100 countries in total.)
  • PB
    Pieter B.
    15 March 2018 @ 17:06
    Thanks a lot for the fantastic video Raoul! I also love India and its people yet would not invest there due to risk of automation (see Johns post), African levels of corruption & terrifying pollution.
  • GM
    Gregor M. | Contributor
    14 March 2018 @ 23:25
    I take an energy framework view, of what's unfolding in India. I've been watching the country closely for years, especially since Modi won the election in 2014. While it's true that the long term prospect for unskilled labor is poor (this has been true globally for some time, and may be even more true in the years ahead due to automation), my preferred lens for India is its latent demand. Simply put, Modi and Goyal (the energy minister) 1. have been serious about electrification and 2. have been laudibly attacking that issue for several years now. So for many of the justifiable concerns one may have about India's population and its skill levels, it's also the case that there is gargantuan latent demand that will come on line as India electrifies. One example: other commenters here note that India's unskilled labor force is a weakness. Fair enough. But just one year ago, India used that surplus of labor to erect a 650 MW solar plant in world beating time of about 9 months. I will worry about India's growth prospect *after* it marshals hundreds of thousands of workers to erect new energy and transport infrastructure, and economy benefits for a while from those additions.
  • GA
    Gustavo A.
    14 March 2018 @ 12:01
    Are we ignoring environmental impact on future growth. After traveling through India, one can already see the poor quality of air and water in major cities.
  • JH
    John H.
    13 March 2018 @ 20:18
    I love India and its people. I have some long-term India exposure. But very modest relative to the opportunity as presented here. Why? Automation. India's biggest problem is that automation can turn "demographic dividend" to "demographic time bomb." That is not dealt with here and yet it's the Achilles Heel of the whole thesis. Look at what companies like Shima Seiki Manufacturing Ltd (6222 JP) are doing and be very afraid of what masses of unemployed youths are going to do in ten-to-twenty years. I don't know the future, but this is a scenario that no one properly talks about in a bull market.
    • JW
      Joel W.
      13 March 2018 @ 21:07
      Thanks for the comment John. I was thinking the very same.
  • Jc
    Justin c.
    13 March 2018 @ 12:30
    Great piece as usual. I would love to see some information presented on fundamental factors that investors should watch for. Sure the long-term story is great, but i don't normally ride 60-80% corrections. I can trade price on technicals as one option. Fundamentally it is more of a challenge to grab the key indicators. For instance the 2s10s has inverted a couple times during this bull market. The composite PMI just went from 53 to 49.7. But you have M1 YoY exploding higher. What matters? foreign capital flows? And if someone thinks the S&P is rich, well it only trades 0.6 S.D. above 20-yr average. India is almost 1 S.D. above its 20-yr average. It sure looks like there is some unwind coming after their business cycle ends. That is when i would want to load the boat. Having some picture on this would be very beneficial in my opinion.
  • TL
    Tom L.
    13 March 2018 @ 12:29
    Transcript please
  • BF
    Bret F.
    13 March 2018 @ 10:18
    Could Small Caps be a nice investment... SCIF is a etf
  • BA
    Bob A.
    13 March 2018 @ 06:47
    Excellent job and I appreciate the opportunities that you highlight for us. Thanks, I am looking forward to Part II.
  • MC
    Matthew C.
    13 March 2018 @ 04:40
    Is China the right template for India? China capitalized on a low cost labour arbitrage and a global outsourcing theme that is now largely over. Is huge population growth really an edge in the future?
  • RR
    Raj R.
    13 March 2018 @ 02:34
    Diversify the reliance on call center and IT jobs. My family members who dont work in IT, have no good paying jobs. India has structural problems and the foundation is not strong for a bullish future
  • RR
    Raj R.
    13 March 2018 @ 02:32
    India is mostly dependent on the west for jobs. It is really hard to be very optimistic if we believe the global situation will be worsening. I dont see any domestic initiatives to diversify the relia
  • VS
    Vaibhav S.
    13 March 2018 @ 02:12
    Ruchir Sharma famously noted that India disappoints the optimists and the pessimists alike. The guys from "Invest India" are effectively a PR team created to sell the story. I do think that buying the dips for names focused on middle class consumption will be an attractive yet simply strategy for the next decade or two. That said, most global investors I know don't have the stomach to take the volatility in stock prices and currency when things get rough.
  • CT
    Christopher T.
    13 March 2018 @ 01:30
    nice jacket/scarf
  • PD
    Peter D.
    13 March 2018 @ 01:07
    Great piece Raoul. I admire the bullishness. However I'd be interested in hearing how those arguments stand up to a contra opinion. I am thinking about Jyant Bhandari, who runs the Capitalism and Morality conference. Jyant has travelled extensively in India and is highly pessimistic. I think a debate between Jyant, who is a regular on the conference circuit, and one of those India bulls might provide a useful picture. In fact, RV has a priceless asset, in the fact that you are open to a lot of the bears, who are banned from mainstream media. I'd be really interested to see how guys like Harry Dent, Peter Schiff, Mark Faber, John Williams et al, and even James Grant, would fare in debates against some of the professional bulls on a variety of subjects. My suspicion? No professional bull would step in the ring with any of those guys. That alone should tell us all something.
  • FC
    Fractal C.
    13 March 2018 @ 00:13
    No Rakesh Jhunjhunwala?
  • RS
    Ryan S.
    12 March 2018 @ 18:53
    Really interesting
  • HA
    Hammad A.
    12 March 2018 @ 18:32
    There are lots of ‘ifs’ and ‘buts’ in this story and most of the interviewees are marketing the story with extra doses of optimism. Does not look like a compelling investment idea, at least at this stage.
  • MH
    Martin H.
    12 March 2018 @ 18:18
    This was disappointing to me. Lots of focus on demographics, infrastructure and all the positive things the government is doing. Very little about local entrepreneurs, comparative advantages and future exports. They are massively dependent on foreign energy, any progress here? Are they privatising and loosening up the red tape and bureaucracy? I know very little about India, but nothing in part 1 gave me a reason to invest in a arguably overvalued country.
  • RD
    Ron D.
    12 March 2018 @ 18:00
    I like that you start focusing on this story, but this is still entry level stuff - and you sort of did that last year already. Beyond these two slightly deeper videos, I think you need to start diving deeper into specific sectors, currency and bond implications by individual experts in India. You have made a convincing case that India is the next China story, now there needs to be more information on how to actually play it.
  • TD
    Tom D.
    12 March 2018 @ 17:55
    On all your videos, not just this one, please try to leave the charts and written words longer on the screen (or add a pause feature) in order to allow viewers more time to study the information. Thanks...India was a great video.
  • CD
    Chris D.
    12 March 2018 @ 13:55
    India is undeniably a very interesting investment case. But another way to play the "Indian consumer" is through - you guessed it - gold. If the story here unfolds as planned, there will be a tremendous bid on the gold market as well from 2020-2040, just when "peak gold supply" is achieved...
    • LK
      Lyle K.
      12 March 2018 @ 15:41
      I also think India's Rupee is going to keep rising as investment booms usually strengthen the countries currency.
    • EL
      Eugene L.
      12 March 2018 @ 16:40
      Interesting! I actually saw a piece that showed that the Indian super wealthy buy much less gold in comparison to the global wealthy.
  • TJ
    Terry J.
    12 March 2018 @ 13:05
    I have been eagerly awaiting an update on India and suffice to say I am not disappointed. I can't wait for part two. As always, when it comes to the most important investment stories, RVTV can be relied on to provide the very best analysis!

Mark Yusko

Morgan Creek Capital Management, Co- Founder, CEO, & CIO

Mark Yuskois the Founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management. He is also the Managing Partner of Morgan Creek Digital Assets. Morgan Creek Capital Management was founded in 2004 and currently manages close to $2 billion in discretionary and non-discretionary assets. Prior to founding Morgan Creek, Mr. Yusko was CIO and Founder of UNC Management Company (UNCMC), the Endowment investment office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Before that, he was Senior Investment Director for the University of Notre Dame Investment Office.Mr. Yusko has been at the forefront of institutional investing throughout his career. An early investor in alternative asset classes at Notre Dame, he brought the Endowment Model of investing to UNC, which contributed to significant performance gains for the Endowment. The Endowment Model is the cornerstone philosophy of Morgan Creek, as is the mandate to Invest in Innovation. Mr. Yusko is again at the forefront of investing through Morgan Creek Digital Assets, which was formed in 2018. Morgan Creek Digital is an early stage investor in blockchain technology, digital currency and digital assets through the firm’s Venture Capital and Digital Asset Index Fund.Mr. Yusko received a BA with Honors from the University of Notre Dame and an MBA in Accounting and Finance from the University of Chicago.

Anthony Scaramucci

SkyBridge Capital, Founder & Co-Managing Partner

Prior to founding SkyBridge in 2005, Scaramucci co-founded investment partnership Oscar Capital Management, which was sold to Neuberger Berman, LLC in 2001. Earlier, he was a vice president in Private Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs & Co. In 2016, Scaramucci was ranked #85 in Worth Magazine’sPower 100: The 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. In 2011, he received Ernst & Young’s “Entrepreneur of the Year –New York” Award in the Financial Services category. Anthony is amember of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), vice chair of the Kennedy Center Corporate Fund Board, a board member of both The Brain Tumor Foundation and Business Executives for National Security (BENS), and a Trustee of the United States Olympic & Paralympic Foundation. He was a member of the New York City Financial Services Advisory Committee from 2007 to 2012. In November 2016, he was named to President-Elect Trump’s 16-person Presidential Transition Team Executive Committee. In June 2017, he wasnamed the Chief Strategy Officer of the EXIM Bank. He served as the White House Communications Director for a period in July 2017. Scaramucci, a native of Long Island, New York, holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Tufts University and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School.

Michael Saylor

MicroStrategy, Co-Founder

Mr. Saylor is a technologist, entrepreneur, business executive, philanthropist, and best-selling author. He currently serves as Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Office of MicroStrategy, Inc. (MSTR). Since co-founding the company at the age of 24, Mr. Saylor has built MicroStrategy into a global leader in business intelligence, mobile software, and cloud-based services. In 2012, he authoredThe Mobile Wave: How Mobile Intelligence Will Change Everything, which earned a spot onThe NewYork TimesBest Sellers list. Mr. Saylor attended the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, receiving an S.B. in Aeronautics and Astronautics and an S.B. in Science, Technology, and Society.

Alex Saunders

Nugget's News, Founder & CEO

Alex Saunders is the founder and CEO of Nugget’s News, a digital media company focused on all things crypto. Alex has been captivated by cryptocurrency since 2012 and in 2017 he began educating globally on the benefits of cryptocurrency and how to safely acquireit. Nugget’s News has been listed as a top-20 podcast by Business Insider, ShapeShift and Lifehacker and has over 120k YouTube subscribers with 9 million total views.Alex is also heavily focused on his cryptocurrency education platform Collective Shift which currently serves over 4,500 members. provides his unique perspectives by utilising his expertise in fundamental analysis, technical analysis and market sentiment. He is working towards his mission of making it easier for everyone to understand the financial world.

James Putra

TradeStation Crypto, Inc., Sr. Director of Product Strategy

James helped launch TradeStation Crypto’s offeringwhichutilizesa true online brokerage model that self-directed investors and traders have come to expect for equities, futures,and foreign currency markets. He is a reputed crypto asset specialist and blockchain thought leader focused on helping people find innovativeways to participate in this space. He is active in the blockchain community with speaking engagements, TV appearances and mentoring.James has over 15 years of experience in the Fintech industry.

Raoul Pal

Real Vision, Co-Founder & CEO

Raoul Pal is the Co-Founder and CEO of Real Vision, the world’s pre-eminent financial media platform, which helps members understand the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy. Real Vision members also have access to Real Vision Crypto, a cryptocurrency and digital assets video channelwatched by over 80,000 people.In addition, Raoul has been publishing Global Macro Investor since January 2005 to provide original, high quality, quantifiable and easily readable research for the global macro investment community hedge funds, family offices, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. It draws on his considerable 31 years of experience in advising hedge funds and managing a global macro hedge fund. Global Macro Investor has one of the very best, proven track records of any newsletter in the industry, producing extremely positive returns in eight out of the last twelve years. He retired from managing client money at the age of 36 in 2004 and now lives in the tiny Caribbean island of Little Cayman in the Cayman Islands. Previously he co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. Raoul moved to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe. In this role, Raoul established strong relationships with many of the world’s pre-eminent hedge funds, learning from their styles and experiences. Other stop-off points on the way were NatWest Markets and HSBC, although hebegan his career by training traders in technical analysis.

Peter McCormack

What Bitcoin Did, Journalist

Peter McCormack is a full timejournalist/podcaster covering topics such as Freedom, Human Rights, Censorship and Bitcoin. Peter created and hosts the What Bitcoin Did Podcast, a twice-weekly Bitcoin podcast where he interviews experts in the world of Bitcoin development, privacy, investment and adoption. Launched in November of 2017, the podcast has grown to over 100 episodes with a guest list that is a testament to the diversity of knowledge and opinions that represent the broader Bitcoin community. Expanding his growing list of humaninterest recordings, documentaries and films Peter has recently launched theDefiancepodcast andDefianceTV.

Caitlin Long

Avanti Financial Group, Founder & CEO

22-year Wall Street veteran who has been active in bitcoin and blockchain since 2012. In 2018-20 she led the charge to make her native state of Wyoming an oasis for blockchain companies in the US, where she helped Wyoming enact 20 blockchain-enabling laws. From 2016-18 she jointly spearheaded a blockchain project for delivering market index data to Vanguard as chairman and president of Symbiont, an enterprise blockchain start-up. Caitlin ran Morgan Stanley’s pension solutions business (2007-2016), heldsenior roles at Credit Suisse (1997-2007) and began her career at Salomon Brothers (1994-1997). She is a graduate of Harvard Law School (JD, 1994), the Kennedy School of Government (MPP, 1994) and the University of Wyoming (BA, 1990).

Hunter Horsley

Bitwise Asset Management, CEO

Hunter Horsley is Chief Executive Officer of Bitwise Asset Management. Prior to Bitwise, he was a product manager at Facebook, working on advertiser products including the multibillion-dollar sponsored content ecosystem and ad breaks in videos. Before Facebook, Horlsey was a product manager at Instagram, responsible for multiple advertising products generating several hundred million dollars of revenue. He is a graduate of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, with a B.S. in economics. Recently, Horsley was named a member of Forbes’ 2019 “30 Under 30” list.

Luke Gromen

Forest For The Trees, Founder & President

Luke Gromen has 25 years of experience in equity research, equity research sales, and as a macro/thematic analyst.He is the founder and president of macro/thematic research firm FFTT, LLC, which he founded in early 2014 to address and leverage the opportunity he saw created by applying what clientsand former colleagues consistently described as a “unique ability to connect the dots” during a time when he saw an increasing “silo-ing” of perspectives occurring on Wall Street and in corporate America.FFTT caters to institutions and sophisticated individuals by aggregating a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks for his clients.Prior to founding FFTT, Luke was a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company, where he worked from 2006-14.At CRC, Luke worked in sales and edited CRC’s flagship weekly thematic research summary piece (“Straight from the Source”)for the firm’s clients.Prior to that,Luke was a partner at Midwest Research, where he worked in equity research and sales from 1996-2006.While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest’s widely-read weekly thematic summary (“Heard in the Midwest”) for the firm’s clients, in whichhe aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.Luke Gromen holds a BBA in Finance and Accounting from the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University.He earned the CFA designation in 2003.

Meltem Demirors

CoinShares, Chief Strategy Officer

Meltem Demirors is Chief Strategy Officer of CoinShares, an investment firm that manages billions in assets on behalf of a global investor base, and is a trusted partner to investors and entrepreneurs navigating the digital asset ecosystem. Meltemoversees the firm’s managed strategies group and its New York office and leads corporate development. Previously, she was part of the founding team of Digital Currency Group. As a veteran investor in the digital currency space, she has invested in over 250 companies in the ecosystem. Meltem is passionate about education and advocacy, and teaches the Oxford Blockchain Strategy Programme and co-chairs the WEF Cryptocurrency Council.