The Shattering of the Market Regime?

Published on
February 14th, 2018
27 minutes

The Shattering of the Market Regime?

The Big Story ·
Featuring David Meneret & Dean Curnutt

Published on: February 14th, 2018 • Duration: 27 minutes

Are we starting to see a huge shift in the market regime? And where do we go from here? David Meneret of Mill Hill Capital and Dean Curnutt of Macro Risk Advisors discuss with Justine Underhill, in this deep conversation that touches on several important and often-ignored facets of the market environment. Filmed February 12th, 2018 in New York.


  • CC
    Chad C.
    16 February 2018 @ 05:01
    This idea may have come from Real Vision itself, but I read, heard or watched recently where it was suggested that the S&P 500's low volatility was due in part to low-interest rates; incentivizing corporate managers to issue debt and buy back shares whenever their stock dropped. Does this have merit?
    • TT
      Trenton T.
      7 March 2018 @ 01:06
      Yes, in part. Interest rate expectations changed dramatically back in Sept 9-11 2017. If rates go significantly higher this year, say 200bp on the US 10 year, CFOs will be less likely to borrow to buy back stock. That is my opinion as a CFO. Here is publicly available info on futures indications of rate hikes courtesy CME: The entire interest rate futures market could be wrong; I'm willing to position on the presumption that it is right.
  • NV
    Nicola V.
    19 February 2018 @ 23:16
    This is a very important topic and timely and wish we had a longer interview format so it could get properly fleshed out. Also, audio level different on interviewer and interviewee...noticed this on more than one occasion, would be great t that get that fixed going forward. Otherwise nice job!
  • RA
    Robert A.
    15 February 2018 @ 01:27
    Vintage RV TV! It is hard to express just how great this piece was, but I owe it to RV to try. First, it was tight and timely, which if it is done right looks incredibly easy—trust me it ain’t easy. The female interviewer was mind blowingly excellent....clearly well prepared and knows this esoteric material well....she was able to lead these two Gentleman through what both what we wanted to know, and perhaps more importantly, what we needed to know that most of us wouldn’t know we wanted to know. She kept the pace at just the right speed. I know that the one Gentleman with the French accent takes a bit of work to understand, but I have watched him before and am so impressed with what he has to say that I don’t mind making the effort (I did notice that his audio volume did see a little low?). Here is the thing that I’m most impressed with—26 minutes! I’ve watched almost all of the RV interviews and really enjoyed some of the great one hour ones of old. I never weighed in, but was skeptical of the newer 30 minutes or less format—just did’t think RV could do justice to a worthwhile topic or a great Guest in that amount of time. This Piece has totally changed my mind! Get the right interviewer (thank you Madam), the right guests, be well prepared and edit where necessary most certainly can be a fantastic product!
    • TB
      Tim B.
      15 February 2018 @ 03:16
      Next time, I think I'll pass on writing a review, and let you do the honors. Well said, sir.
    • JW
      James W.
      15 February 2018 @ 04:33
      Couldn't agree more with Robert. Timely and pertinent analysis and discussion, with direct application to the current situation.
    • EF
      Eric F.
      17 February 2018 @ 15:16
      The numbers don’t lie - look at the upvotes! Well said sir.
  • JL
    Jacob L.
    16 February 2018 @ 06:47
    Dean Curnutt says there is a lot of cash on the side lines (and I've heard Ray Dalio say the same thing). How do you track that exactly? And the same question for tracking counter party spreads.
    • EF
      Eric F.
      17 February 2018 @ 15:14
      I’ve seen Julian Brigden say the exact opposite. I think he has his own proprietary index - ammo index? - but sure he said the opposite. Lack of liquidity, high leverage and lots of cash floating around doesn’t seem right, seems counterintuitive to me.
  • EF
    Eric F.
    17 February 2018 @ 15:11
    Liked it, nice to see a new - and female - interviewer.
  • RM
    Russell M.
    16 February 2018 @ 13:47
    This was good a good description of the nature of the market, its strengths and weaknesses. I would like to have heard some discussion about what happens to this market if FED QT, other central bank tightening and sales of Treasuries to accommodate the deficit drives the 10 year up to 3.5 - 5% and other rates go up as well. David alluded to it when he mentioned that the Fed would not be happy if the VIX hits 30. But a little more fleshed out discussion would have been nice. Seem to me this would cause major convulsions in the market as they described it and the Fed would be forced to reverse course back to loosening.
  • TT
    Timo T.
    15 February 2018 @ 07:58
    I cant see "Download audio" link. I'm using Android phone.
    • GM
      Gerald M.
      15 February 2018 @ 13:43
      I don't see it either. I use downloaded audio on my commutes. @RealVision, Where is it?
    • PN
      Philip N.
      16 February 2018 @ 09:48
      I have noticed this happening before. Sometimes it takes them a while to get the download audio link up. If you check back in a while it will probably be there.
  • FV
    Fredrik V.
    16 February 2018 @ 09:23
    Bank counterparty risk i look at is Libor.
  • CS
    C S.
    16 February 2018 @ 01:54
    Ah, you gotta love these RV interview-afficiandos. Be relaxed + be very prepared + be very interested = good interview. There's is no such thing as the perfect interview, though you can aspire.
  • GM
    Gerald M.
    15 February 2018 @ 14:34
    Thank you for getting the audio up quickly!
  • CR
    Chad R.
    15 February 2018 @ 00:37
    Holy Smokes. Erik Townsend is eating your guys' lunch. Every week. And, it's free.
    • IP
      IDA P.
      15 February 2018 @ 08:48
      It's not really "free", he always asks contributions to his enlightened listeners. However the weekly format is a good idea.
  • DM
    David M.
    15 February 2018 @ 07:09
    more of this interviewer please
  • PU
    Peter U.
    14 February 2018 @ 10:49
    the interviewer did a fine job but she lacked second order questioning (vis-a-vis more experienced market participants). Not taking anything away from her, she just needs additional experience in order to get to a "second order" discussion going.
    • ns
      niall s.
      14 February 2018 @ 19:27
      I did not find her lacking in any way , she was superb. More or her please .
    • DC
      David C.
      14 February 2018 @ 20:56
      I'm with Peter. Felt like something I'd see on Bloomberg which isn't why I subscribed. Questions coming from credible, actual market participants tend to elicit more 2nd and 3rd order thinking, which I find more valuable and unique to Real Vision overall.
    • JL
      J L.
      14 February 2018 @ 22:16
      What's a market participant? Ain't no way out of this big fat game of risk... I think she did very well
    • JW
      James W.
      15 February 2018 @ 04:44
      Valid point, but they covered a lot of ground in 27 minutes, without going over anything twice or getting bogged down. For me this was about perfect for a weeknight. It's a fair feat to have pulled such a piece together in short order. I also found it very educational.
  • RD
    Ryan D.
    14 February 2018 @ 23:14
    80 time leverage in a Mezz BB Tranche in a market with virtually no dealers, ultra thin liquidity and with rates still rising? More shoes to fall me thinks.
  • JW
    Joel W.
    14 February 2018 @ 22:17
    I agree with John O. A headline like this one seems to demand more than the 26 minute run time, and I was indeed disappointed to not dive in and swim around the deeper waters for a while.
  • IO
    Igor O.
    14 February 2018 @ 21:12
    RV at its best.
  • TB
    Tim B.
    14 February 2018 @ 20:38
    This was an outstanding interview. Justine deftly guided the interviewees with well-informed questions to probe for insights in multiple market contexts. David and Dean were equally articulate. The 2 on 1 format also worked very well, though I would argue that only an accomplished interviewer could handle that. Justine was more than up to the task. RV delivers again. Bravo!
  • RA
    Ricardo A.
    14 February 2018 @ 15:56
    Very good interviewer
  • JO
    JOHN O.
    14 February 2018 @ 13:10
    Good conversation. They covered a lot of ground in 26 minutes however. A deeper dive into private debt would be an interesting follow on topic. The February 9 issue of Grant's looks at parts of this market, especially that financing the PE sector. As your guests suggest, private debt might become an issue for insurers and other institutions. A liquidity crunch there could have some ugly spill over effects to the public markets. I agree that we won't be seeing 2017's low volatility levels any time soon. However, it makes for a better environment for the professional investor and financial advisor as many DIY investors may again focus on their day jobs and rehire the financial professional they forsook for Vanguard. I saw a funny comment on Twitter last week about Betterment's and Wealthfront's website crashes during the market volatility - "The inability to access your robo account and run for the hills is actually a feature and not a bug." Referring to investors' propensity to buy high and sell low ;-)
  • AG
    Alex G.
    14 February 2018 @ 11:47
    Real good interview ! Liked the new interviewer as well