The Year Ahead 2018 Predictions

Published on
December 29th, 2017
32 minutes

The Year Ahead 2018 Predictions

The Big Story ·

Published on: December 29th, 2017 • Duration: 32 minutes

Take a glimpse at what 2018 might bring for the financial markets through the lens of Real Vision contributors, who provide their predictions in a special video for the New Year. Whether you agree or disagree with the specific projections, we hope you enjoy watching some really smart people giving us their outlooks for the year ahead.


  • OG
    Owen G.
    9 May 2018 @ 19:37
    @Raoul - Political Risk As of May 8 2018 12:38:39 Review Time. Not seeking re-election. [Senate] Bob Corker - Republican Jeff Flake - Republican Orrin Hatch - Republican No Name - Republican [Departure Soon] [House] Bill Shuster - Republican Bob Goodlatte - Republican Carol Shea-Porter - Democrat Charles W. Dent - Republican Darrell Issa - Republican Dave Reichert - Republican David Trott - Republican Dennis Ross - Republican Edward Royce - Republican Elizabeth Esty - Democrat Frank LoBiondo - Republican Gene Green - Democrat Gregg Harper - Republican Ileana Ros-Lehtinen - Republican Jeb Hensarling - Republican Jim Bridenstine - Republican Joe Barton - Republican John Delaney - Democrat John J. Duncan, Jr. - Republican Lamar Smith - Republican Luis V. Gutierrez - Democrat Lynn Jenkins - Republican Niki Tsongas - Democrat Paul Ryan - Republican Rick Nolan - Democrat Robert Brady - Democrat Rodney Frelinghuysen - Republican Ruben J. Kihuen - Democrat Ryan Costello - Republican Sam Johnson - Republican Sandy Levin - Democrat Ted Poe - Republican Thomas Rooney - Republican Trey Gowdy - Republican [Resigned] Al Franken - Democratic U.S. Senate Blake Farenthold - Republican U.S. House Jason Chaffetz - Republican U.S. House John Conyers, Jr. - Democrat U.S. House Louise Slaughter - Democrat U.S. House Patrick Meehan - Republican U.S. House Patrick J. Tiberi - Republican U.S. House Thad Cochran - Republican U.S. Senate Tim Murphy - Republican U.S. House Trent Franks - Republican U.S. House Xavier Becerra - Democrat Attorney General of California + DOJ + FBI + CEOs Conspiracy? Nothing happening? Goodlatte & Gowdy [important]. Chairman of the House Committee on the Judiciary. Chairman of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee. Why is the NY AG resignation important? What past/current 'high profile' FBI investigations are within the jurisdiction of NY? Define roadblock. You have more than you know. Do not fall victim to MSM/other fake/false narrative pushes.
  • OG
    Owen G.
    9 May 2018 @ 19:34
    Just watching Raoul's last talk; I hope he is following Q; could it be possible Clinton/Obama/Kerry all be in trouble. Could Kerry be charged under the Logan Act after visiting Iran? Interesting times.
  • RO
    Robert O.
    30 December 2017 @ 05:41
    If Raoul is even partly right I think that Peter Brandt could add another zero to his 2018 year end gold estimate. Even the deep state would likely rally around Trump to avoid the anarchy that would ensue if a sitting President could be overthrown by an unelected special prosecutor with little or no evidence of any wrong doing. Then consider the financial markets or what would be left of them when the world goes no bid on everything (except guns and ammo). Trump and Xi are consolidating power. In the US at least you need to have an opponent to at least make it look like a fair fight. Mueller gives the anti-Trump group some hope, but the bias shown by the members of Mueller's team has already created the doubt that any findings may not be worthy of incarceration of the entire Trump White House. Time is now on Trump's side, he would be unwise to have the investigation stopped by anyone other than Mr. Mueller. And at the end, will Mueller find any links between the DNC/Clinton Foundation and the Russians? If not then this would leave the door open to a new investigation by yet another special prosecutor who might also look into the current investigation and reveal damaging information about Mr. Mueller's conduct. My prediction is that Mr. Mueller finds some fault with the Trump transition team but nothing worth more than a reprimand, while chastising the DNC and Clinton Foundation for "similar" ethical failings. No harm, no foul; just keep playing.
    • Av
      Ad v.
      30 December 2017 @ 11:21
      "with little or no evidence of any wrong doing." Might want to wait for the results of the investigation before drawing any conclusions. Crazy idea right?
    • RO
      Robert O.
      17 February 2018 @ 02:54
      Results in: The Russian Trolls did it! But the investigation continues, I'm sure he might find some Chinese, North Korean or other commie conspirator to blame.
  • DD
    Derek D.
    16 January 2018 @ 05:56
    The whole point of the investigation is to haunt the administration so the damn bureaucrats can have their coup. They're turning all the tactics they've used on Mossadeqh, Diem, Kai Shek, onto their own damn government. F the CIA and the whole lot of them. They need their paychecks to keep flowing.
  • DD
    Derek D.
    16 January 2018 @ 05:53
    MUH Russia.
  • JM
    Jim M.
    8 January 2018 @ 01:32
    Raoul never even bothered to "Google" John Schindler who he cites as an 'insider' and one to follow on Twitter. This Schindler is a wannabe with quite the checkered past.
  • SS
    Sam S.
    6 January 2018 @ 15:23
    Great format in providing insight directly from such a dynamic group of people. The real honesty is this format is that all 22 of them are not in complete agreement with each other, therefore truly making for the marketplace. Place your bets.
  • JC
    John C.
    5 January 2018 @ 19:48
    Interesting. But am a little disappointed in Raoul's part...that borders on conspiracy theory stuff. It's ok to preach long dollar and short the markets all throughout 2017 but need to own up to his positions and how they ended up being poor picks. But now double down in 2018 along the same lines with the background being Trump's supposed collusion with the Russians? Frankly the West and US are pretty lost if the supposedly richest country on earth can't somehow protect it's voting and election mechanics and system from a coordinated Russian Facebook attack...come on.... The Republicans have no love for Trump while the Dems will say and do anything seemingly to bring him down so trying to equate this to a Nixon-type scenario is a bit out there. There are already way too many false accusations and lies coming out of the anti-Trump lobby to make further accusations pretty dubious without absolutely smoking-gun type 'proof.' As another poster mentioned, the Deep State has already turned Trump on several issues so they have less and less reason to want him out going forward too. And to be clear the Trump win was as much a big "F-you" to the establishment parties as it was a political statement and 'movement'. Both parties are a mess and have allegiances to the various big lobbies (from Big Pharma to Ag to Israel all the way to China and the Saudis) so it's as much the system at this point than anything else. Finally, we have had a massive push towards socialism across the board with more government everywhere, overregulation, higher taxes, less services, more crony capitalism and incredibly destructive and rampant political correctness everywhere (to the point you can't say or do anything without being accused of offending someone). And on top of that legislating 'victimology' where everyone is a victim and we need government to step in literally everywhere for perceived 'microaggressions.' A lot of that is media-inspired and not exactly a recipe for a sane and healthy capitalistic hard-working society where we all work together to succeed. The implications of that on productivity and social cohesion might be more worth looking into on RV going forward.
    • EF
      Eric F.
      5 January 2018 @ 21:53
      Couldn’t agree with every comment here any more.
  • CS
    Chris S.
    5 January 2018 @ 10:41
    Grant, as your 2018 BTC prediction basically materialized within a week (kudos!), would you mind giving an update? Or do you think the 100% up / 50% down (or vice versa) pattern is generally applicable?
  • AL
    Andrew L.
    5 January 2018 @ 06:37
    The exception seemed to be the rule in 2017. Surely that can't last, can it? There is something psychologically significant about the turning of a new year. It is that flux in thinking that can be a tipping point on things like the crypto craze. BTC 20k, Overstock 5x, Litecoin founder sells out, the wacky Long Island Ice Tea crypto pivot were insane alarm bells at the end of the year. But the question hangs in my mind, despite the crescendo of crazy, what happens when everyone expects something to happen? Sure there is hard reality and sometimes we see it coming, sometimes perception becomes a self fulfilling prophecy but probably just as often, because it is so discounted, so expected, so inevitable, the thing we all see and feel and know is there and expect will surely happen actually never materializes. Martin Armstrong is a high quality middle ages class sooth sayer and says 2020 is the big big turning point. Who knows but the air seems pregnant with a gathering storm. Then again it seemed that way at the end of 2015 when I pulled back because it was clear we were in for a serious correction. Now I think we are in a cosmopolis type reality watch that movie and you will have no idea what it means but it will feel exactly like right now. Because money has lost its narrative quality...
  • DT
    Dmitry T.
    4 January 2018 @ 11:00
    Given that some predictions are complete opposite of the others someone will be right in 12 months time, or maybe both groups will be right at some stage during the year, subject to how much prices will move around. What is amazing though that despite all fear mongering in financial media, including RV ((, market just keeps climbing these walls of worry, making fun of predictors. And it appears that almost nobody in the industry got this trade consistently right since GFC. Everyone was trying to find some clever way of extracting alfa, but couldn't see forest for the trees. Happy New Year!
  • RM
    Robert M.
    3 January 2018 @ 22:08
    Mark Richie II's technical analysis of AMZN "breaking out of a base and doubling" is fairly useless. There are a separate variety of stocks I classify as log stocks that are best analysed using semi log y axes. All others are best analysed with linear y axes. AMZN is a log stock. The subjective criteria I use to classify them is simple: do the obvious trend lines for each stock fit best in a linear axis or a log axis. This requires skill and experience in how to properly find trend lines on a chart. For that, the best education I got was from Tim Morge. I fully recommend you try his services for as long as it takes to learn everything. He is several classes above the best of the rest. As an aside, log stocks are generally (but not exclusively) high ROE compounding machines beloved of a sub section of value investors such as Buffett & Chuck Akre (MA, V, MCO, MKL etc). Amzn is not something they would touch given the lack of demonstrable let alone steady ROE so is an anomaly in that sense however that is an exception that proves the rule.
  • WM
    Will M.
    3 January 2018 @ 20:30
    I guess if everyone had the same view it would be easy to take the contrarian position and likely make money! These were just predictions and not if death justifications. I uptick the video along with the other 90% but Raoul's section on trump certainly put a cat amongst the pigeons. I believe Trump was just a clear signal that the masses are getting very restless with the lying, self serving politicians we have out there in the west today. A crisis is clearly coming, at least if you have read enough history, thought at all about government finances, can see the major disconnect in self-interests between baby boomers and millennials, and witnessed the growing polarization across classes, countries, cultures etc. At a minimum a late 60s style societal breach is approaching; most likely even all of the above we are clearly heading into global crisis a la 1930s. Something is going to break....and "you can take that to the bank"...if the doors are still open!
  • SS
    S S.
    30 December 2017 @ 05:20
    As I was watching Grant's predictions, I was thinking, when is he going to mention Gold, as usual he couldn't resist and left it until the last minute. LOL. Grant, please make your new year's resolution to talk less about Gold, we all know your views.
    • WM
      Will M.
      3 January 2018 @ 20:13
      Kulbir, yes I know Grants views on gold too, but I also sympathize with them and want to hear plenty about gold because IF Grant any other like thinkers are correct, the implications for the world financial system are just as critical as a war with N. Korea....
  • VK
    Viresh K.
    29 December 2017 @ 15:11
    This was basically useless. Every opinion under the sun with little rationale provided by virtually anyone. Compare that to this: Yawn.
    • VK
      Viresh K.
      29 December 2017 @ 15:14
      Also, we can get stuff like this from other sources. Really what RV should be asking themselves is: how can they try and make this exercise (which realistically isn't that important as people change their mind very quickly as narratives change) slightly better.
    • JP
      Janusz P.
      29 December 2017 @ 19:38
      Whether it is "useful" or not to listen to other's opinions is debatable. But the quality of that presentation is indeed very low. Looking at this video and the one from 2016 (the link Viresh K. provided) one can easily see the difference in quality of the material presented.
    • WM
      Will M.
      3 January 2018 @ 20:03
      sorry link didn't work for me
  • CY
    C Y.
    3 January 2018 @ 19:12
    I did not see Raoul's comments coming
  • WS
    William S.
    29 December 2017 @ 16:23
    Wow! I was actually most shocked by Raoul Pal's take. Let me preface what I say next by noting that I was not / am not a Trump supporter. I did not vote for Trump. I think he's a mental midget, and that he poses serious threats on the geopolitical front. That said, I've long since become convinced that the whole "Russia collusion" narrative is (as CNN's Van Jones termed it) "a big nothing burger." That Raoul has quite obviously bought into the deepest, darkest aspects of the "red menace" fairy tale is, in my estimation, an extremely poor reflection on his capacity for dispassionate assessment. My prediction for 2018 is that the "Russia collusion" story will continue to erode and ultimately disappear altogether. It will no doubt continue to excite the overheated imaginations of those who want to believe it, but it will never rise to the level of providing an actionable basis for bringing down the Trump administration.
    • GR
      Gregory R.
      29 December 2017 @ 18:22
      Raoul Pal is incredibly naive and probably a victim of CNN. The DOJ / FBI did nothing about Hillary (obvious perjury, obstruction, destruction, etc.) and if there was something on Trump (there isn't) they wouldn't do anything either. It's all about chipping away at Trump and winning the mid-terms. The Swamp is now captive to an elevated stock market. No one wants to rock the boat.
    • JP
      Janusz P.
      29 December 2017 @ 19:30
      Seems to me that your capacity to understand what Russians are doing (very skillfully) is extremely limited. What is even more disturbing is your inability to comprehend how dangerous consequences these actions (whether you believe in them or not) have for any democracy. And to be clear, Russians are not only doing it to US, they meddle everywhere they can. Now, whether the US public (once they learn about the facts) is going to do anything with it is a totally different matter. In this day and age (of social media), the public (sadly) doesn't care about it anymore. The election of D.Trump only proves that. Similarly you get attorney general Jeff Sessions openly lying about meeting with Russians only later coming out with lame excuses and not facing ANY consequences at all. The point I'm making here is that general public seems to care very little about it and is more interested/shocked with whatever their favorite celebrities do or tweet about. Politicians are taking advantage of it with their bold actions that wouldn't fly some time ago .That's why I don't share Raoul's view. Even if anything comes out of Trump investigation (and it is obvious that it will) I don't think there will be any backlash. I wouldn't be surprised to see Trump stay for his entire 4 year term. If Pence or Ryan (unlikely) takes over, Mr Market might think that is even better.
    • TB
      Tim B.
      29 December 2017 @ 19:57
      @ Greg O. Well stated. The Russians are very smart at using subterfuge where they can maximize their benefits. Influencing the election of the world's leading democracy to get their preferred winner, while facing zero consequences, was a stroke of genius on their part.
    • BC
      Burton C.
      29 December 2017 @ 20:07
      Absolutely about Raoul. I saw his long narrative coming up and was looking forward to his insights, then we get this??? OMG. How could he be this naive and clueless as to what all of this is all about. Incredible. He only got one thing right, which is there will be volatility. Stockman summarized this whole thing quite well about one week ago. Please Raoul stay within your circle of competence. Presidential politics certainly is not in that circle
    • BC
      Burton C.
      29 December 2017 @ 20:11
      PS Greg R. It is more about just chipping away at Trump and winning the mid-terms. It is for the removal of Trump because he does not act as the deep states front man in any fashion. Previous Presidents have done this quite effectively Dem or Rep.
    • CH
      Colin H.
      29 December 2017 @ 23:06
      @Gregory R. Trump has made at least some of his wealth by laundering money for various crime organizations, including the Russian mafia via his associate Felix Sater. Whether or not the Russians helped Trump win the election, I cannot say. I'm pretty certain Mueller can put a case against him for money laundering and expose those connections as a by product of this investigation though. In this video when questioned about Felix Sater, Trump stops the interview: An these Dutch journalists traced the connections between Trump and Sater via shell companies in The Netherlands. In this one he claims he wouldn't recognise Sater if he saw him despite Sater having an office on the floor beneath Trump, Trump being on the board of Sater's company Bayrock Group LLC, and Sater later being an advisor to the Trump Organization. Everyone in New York knows Trump is a conman and have known for years.
    • DC
      Dave C.
      31 December 2017 @ 02:49
      A sober analysis of the "russiagate" narrative from the London Book Review
    • ZM
      Zoran M.
      31 December 2017 @ 09:34
      The main point would be... Can you all afford for Raoul to be right?
    • GF
      George F.
      3 January 2018 @ 15:03
      I doubt the Logan Act will be every used for anything. The Logan Act of 1799 was one of President Adams ideas for regulating free speech along with the alien and sedition act and others. The Alien and sedition act was never repealed but it is normally assumed they would be found unconstitutional. The logan act has not been repealed or used, but would likely be found unconstitutional. "The Alien and Sedition Acts were never appealed to the Supreme Court, whose right of judicial review was not clearly established until Marbury v. Madison in 1803. Subsequent mentions in Supreme Court opinions beginning in the mid-20th century have assumed that the Sedition Act would today be found unconstitutional.[22][" Even the espionage act seems unlikely to ever be used, as if it were used once it might go out of control and be applied to lots of important people. Both the Logan and espionage acts could be applied to the entire membership of the Council of Foreign relations for example. So I don't think so.
  • JM
    John M.
    30 December 2017 @ 06:29
    Someone commented that '....they (i.e., Russians) meddle everywhere they can...' Excuse me but in how many countries does the USA have military bases/assets? How many US troops are fighting in how many countries around the world - excluding NK (we can add that one later)? USA wars in the middle east have killed how many civilians? The USA remains the world's biggest manipulator. Enough with the Russia garbage, already!
    • RM
      Robert M.
      30 December 2017 @ 23:42
      I upticked you, however it is not all garbage. It is just that we rightly hold our own country/ allies to higher standards.
    • RM
      Robert M.
      30 December 2017 @ 23:43
      Actually my comment is still wrong. The violence the US has meted out has been beyond the pale. Anyway somewhere in there lies the truth for me.
    • RM
      Robert M.
      30 December 2017 @ 23:45
      the main mistake was the 2003 Iraq invasion, a crime against humanity, a stain against the great US which will haunt it for a century.
    • GR
      Guido R.
      3 January 2018 @ 09:25
      Lest you forget too.... Pentagon cannot account for 40000 personnel nor about $7Trillion
  • TD
    Tim D.
    2 January 2018 @ 23:53
    I predict a breakup between Grant and Raoul
  • JM
    Jim M.
    2 January 2018 @ 14:36
    "Let's say Trump is impeached and goes to prison" I love Raoul but good God this is just nuts. DJT is a wild man. A petulant, thin-skinned bully prone to exaggeration and lies but stupid he ain't.
    • AA
      Aymman A.
      2 January 2018 @ 16:21
      That IS the whole problem. DJT is incompetent and stupid. He undermines himself.
  • RD
    Ron D.
    2 January 2018 @ 01:43
    The political uncertainty will be outside of the us. Meullers invetigation is percieved political and will never resonate with the public outside of pundits Trump will never go to jail You might see
  • JM
    Jared M.
    2 January 2018 @ 01:13
    I give Raoul credit on a ballsy call. I think that alot of true blue conservitives have lost the fiath in this administration. Coming form a guy that voted for him.
  • SP
    Sat P.
    1 January 2018 @ 06:28
    I loved the diversity of predictions and reasons behind them but was very disappointed by Raoul's section. The Russia story is a complete joke. The Establishment and the Globalists hate the fact that the public elected someone that supports them. It's the same with their hatred of Brexiteers.
    • ND
      Ned D.
      1 January 2018 @ 19:14
      Agree, was also shocked to hear the "Russia collusion" narrative mentioned as having any credibility. First, we have had almost 18 months of various investigations by Congress, the FBI and the Justice Department and they have discovered nothing that would indicate any type of "collusion" with Putin. If there any substantive, it would have been leaked by DNC operatives by now. In fact, and as Raoul mentions, the Clinton's are being revealed as having actually "colluded" with the Russians with millions of dollars in donations being made to their "foundation" in return for influence on various issues including UraniumOne. The whole Russia narrative was concocted in the days after the election by Mook, Podesta and the DNC spin machine to cover up for their wholesale failure to understand why Trump won. In the meantime, the economy is benefitting from positive sentiment over the new tax bill, fewer regulations and having a President that is not interested in "fundamentally transforming" the USA.
  • BB
    Bojo B.
    1 January 2018 @ 09:21
    Raoul might be right about political volatility, as the US is run as a criminal organization, starting an internal mafia warfare. As for Russia, even IF all of the nonsense were true, it would not make up 5 percent Israel’s influence in US politics, or of American raping and pillaging around the world. Kudos to Putin for being an adult with US teenager fools on steroids.
  • KA
    Kelly A.
    31 December 2017 @ 19:58
    I like hearing the different predictions, and i disagree with one writer who felt no rationales were given. I heard lots of them. BIG POINT: RV, please make a grid of the predictions so that in a year we can see who was [and was not] effective in making predictions. thank you.
    • SP
      Sat P.
      1 January 2018 @ 06:29
      I would also love to see a prediction & results grid.
  • DS
    David S.
    30 December 2017 @ 03:35
    The current politics of both parties in the US is a scandal in itself. Very few can see beyond personal interest in both parties. Hopefully the FBI and Congressional investigations will expose the dark side of both campaigns. Mr. Mueller needs to have the ethical wisdom of King Solomon and practical wisdom the Athenian lawgiver Solon to succeed. Let's give Mr. Mueller a chance to succeed. Bringing back some semblance of ethics to US politics where the common good and the individual good are somewhat in balance needs to start somewhere. We cannot succeed as a nation like this. DLS
    • PN
      Philip N.
      30 December 2017 @ 10:52
      If Mueller had any ethical wisdom his investigation team would be full of investigators who were above reproach. Instead it is a corrupt pro-Hillary donkey party. Any serious attempt at impeachment as a result of his investigation would be shatter America.
    • PN
      Philip N.
      30 December 2017 @ 10:58
      "would shatter America." I gotta start proof reading when I change a sentence.
    • DS
      David S.
      31 December 2017 @ 17:56
      There will always be problems where humans are involved, but it is not a "corrupt pro-Hilary donkey party" just like the Congressional investigations are not Republican dupes. Only my opinion, but the President will not be impeached and certainly he will not be convicted by the Senate. This is a messy situation, but personal consequences for actions in this campaign will make a higher standard in the future. It is how the system works, or we will learn nothing. (I have lots of problems with editing too.) DLS
    • PN
      Philip N.
      1 January 2018 @ 06:13
      There are the Ohr's and Fusion Gps. McCabe's wife took over half a million in cash from team clinton and he illegally campaigned for the democrats. Mueller should be investigated by a special prosecutor as part of a Uranium One investigation. Then there is Strzok who seems to have a full time job protecting Hillary. It sure looks like a donkey party. Comparing that to congressional investigations is just silly. We know that the RNC has an agenda. The same as we know Adam Schiff does. The FBI and the DOJ arent supposed to conduct witch hunts into the president or cover up crimes by the Secretary of State.
  • DS
    David S.
    1 January 2018 @ 02:28
    Governments will not be able to stop Bitcoin, but they will begin to track illegal operations by using Bitcoin data itself. Governments like China will be most effective, but as prosecutions take place, a major attraction of Bitcoin will be dampened. In 2018, the Chinese and other governments may introduce block-chain currencies themselves like the Bityuan. DLS
  • CC
    Charles C.
    31 December 2017 @ 22:52
    Lots of interesting opinions, some conflicting. It's awfully easy for my confirmation bias to kick in when I hear something I've thought. I'm trying more and more to live by this: "Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth. You have power over your mind - not outside events. Realize this and you will find strength" Marcus Aurelius
  • RT
    Rune T.
    31 December 2017 @ 20:46
    I'd wager that Hillary will become a moderator on Zerohedge before any corrupt politicians go to prison...
  • TS
    Timothy S.
    31 December 2017 @ 17:47
    I've never read the Bible, but I'm told the Old Testament colorfully chronicles the inevitable devolution of human societies from order to corruption ending finally in chaos. The 2016 American Presidential Election was an eye opener. With Trump antics and the transparency provided by social media, we no longer have any illusions where we stand in this cycle. Given the level of governmental corruption, particularly in the DOJ, FBI and Judiciary, can we assume Robert Mueller is the "straight- arrow" and a "man of integrity"? Or, is he compromised and was made "Grand Inquisitor" to further some nefarious agenda? There is evidence to support both views and recent polling indicates American voters are split on the issue with a third undecided. In a recent interview, David Davis Hanson (Hoover Institution Senior Fellow) summarizes recent findings by the House Intelligence Committee which suggest the Mueller investigation is compromised and is heading towards collapse. While Hanson is a partisan he lays out an interesting scenario. To avoid resignation and salvage his reputation, Robert Mueller may tack towards honesty and include an investigation into Russian links to the Clinton campaign (e.g. Fusion GPS etc). Things could get messy. Unfortunately, Rauol is catching some flak. But it's a polarized world and, like many of us, he may have no choice but to kowtow to the "NeverTrumpers" in his universe. Then again, he my find a juicy conspiracy theory just too irresistible not to share. And, it sure "stirs the pot". If Rauol's scenario proves correct, what follows? Some of my Canadian friends believe another American civil war is inevitable and, given our racial discord, we'll be lucky to avoid a genocide. That's a shocker!
  • PB
    Pieter B.
    31 December 2017 @ 17:11
  • PB
    Pieter B.
    31 December 2017 @ 17:08
    Fantastic piece again! Thanks every
  • SS
    31 December 2017 @ 15:58
    I'm very surprised that no one commented on FAANG stocks. Internet tax may put pressure on bottom line... Rally lead by these leaders could be broken .... Also, post US tax cuts, other countries would be under pressure to cut Corp taxes as well... Govt coffers to suffer while corporate coffers grow -good for equity n bad for debt
  • CH
    Colin H.
    31 December 2017 @ 03:01
    I think people are underestimating the alt-right in the US. They are running very sophisticated programs targeting schools for ideological indoctrination and pursuing hearts and minds community projects (charity for the homeless types of things). It's not a 2018 prediction but by the time you see this 1 year ahead it'll be too late; imagine neo nazis in charge of the world's largest war machine.
    • CH
      Colin H.
      31 December 2017 @ 14:47
      I got some thumbs down on this. How so? 1. Consider this, Fareed Zakaria estimates that the amount of racist/bigoted remarks on his timeline went from about 2% to 20% in a year: 2. Go to zerohedge and read the comments on a few articles. Count the number of anti-semitic and racist comments. 3. A crowdfunding site called Hatreon has been erected to raise funds for propaganda. They did this because they got kicked off of Patreon: I could go on and on. This is not a couple of goofballs waving flags and marching around in jackboots like it was 20 years ago, they produce slick propaganda, engage in online discussions, they are rolling out hearts and minds programs, (i.e. giving food to homeless over Christmas), and setting up programs to spread propaganda at schools to indoctrinate the next generation. Do not underestimate this phenomenon.
  • JB
    Johan B.
    31 December 2017 @ 08:42
    Difficult to predict the future: Someone says EM up another EM down. Bitcoin is going to crash, Bitcoin will double. The dollar will be weaker, no the dollar will be stronger. Interesting to hear all these knowledgeable peoples’ opinions. As someone noted below, no one mentioned a drastic fall in stock prices (which has been a common theme this year). I would like RV to follow up on peoples predictions (they had similar episodes before). Thank you RV for this good year and I’m predicting a very interesting 2018 with RV.
  • DG
    David G.
    31 December 2017 @ 04:29
    A rational person would not wander naked through a political minefield unless they had a high degree of confidence about the outcome, so either Raoul is a deeply connected insider with intimate knowledge of the ongoing Russian collusion investigation, or he's swallowed the fact-free DNC/MSM promoted propaganda hook, line and sinker. I'm afraid it may be the latter, for as Lao Tzo said, "Those who know do not speak. Those who speak do not know."
    • CS
      C S.
      31 December 2017 @ 06:05
      So, you dont know either way Dave? ;D
  • RC
    Ryan C.
    31 December 2017 @ 02:29
    Really appreciated hearing all these different insights and predictions. Thanks for pulling together.
  • TW
    Thomas W.
    31 December 2017 @ 02:09
    Oh, please Raoul. The Trump Russia thing is a complete canard. And, trust me, I'm no Trump fan. Let's just talk politics for a second. The people who lost and their media sycophants may be out to get Trump, but the deep staters have to be extremely pleased with his pliability. He Goldmanized the economic team. He's doing what Wall Street wants re: Dodd-Frank. Proprietary trading by banks? No problem. He's given them their corporate tax cut. He's actually EXPANDED the foreign wars and empowered the worst of the lunatic neocon element to stir up all sorts of trouble overseas after promising to take care of business at home. He's shoving money at the Pentagon that they didn't even ask for! They have to LOVE this guy ... and THEY are who counts. All this investigation nonsense is a sideshow. That you actually take it seriously makes me question your judgement overall. You're watching too much regular TV. I find that kind of ironic.
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    31 December 2017 @ 00:43
    Fascinating and like the diversity of views / predictions. Found Raoul's take particularly insightful -- I think he is really onto something...I sensed the same when I was in the US recently for a long stay: the probability of Black Swan events is much higher in the US in 2018 than at any time in my lifetime. Yet, markets have a knack for ignoring reality over the past 10 years (my sense is that they are being heavily manipulated in clear and not-so-clear ways). My two cents: Stay conservative in 2018, and if you must, invest in markets (such as certain sectors in India) which are well-insulated from the fray and have much greater long-term growth potential. Things could get ugly, and you don't want to get hurt.
  • FC
    FRED C.
    30 December 2017 @ 22:05
    not to beat a dead horse but it seems rp is still suffering from tds...........(trump derangement syndrome) too bad since most of the time i look forward to his thoughts re macro......and normally they are well sourced and founded.........hopefully next time ............
  • GO
    Gary O.
    30 December 2017 @ 20:53
    The Real Vision Team should have a geopolitical opinion monthly show. It makes connecting the dots easier. HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL!!!!!!!!
  • JO
    James O.
    30 December 2017 @ 20:23
    The biggest tax legislation in a generation and no predictions about its impact. Come on guys, this was a miss. Maybe it's a "nothing burger" but I would like to hear considered opinions if that is the case. Perhaps a future video? It's anyone's guess about Russia, Raoul is guessing just like the rest. Surely there is a tail risk with a non-zero probability and we should watch for that, but he went far further than is warranted by the evidence. Grant started this video off accurately when he said, "predictions are almost worthless sometimes." Surely he'd heard the entire video before he decided what to say. I'd say Grant is correct and could have stopped his input with one sentence. The video taught us listeners that every prediction is out there and those that confirm your cognitive bias is likely to resonate. On this dimension, Raoul won the award, his cognitive bias sans evidence was amply demonstrated.
  • DC
    Darrell C.
    30 December 2017 @ 18:12
    On a lighter note, that was fun, like a buffet of opinions. My prediction... the market will either go up or down... What are some of our own predictions......?
  • DP
    David P.
    30 December 2017 @ 17:41
    I would have a good option on the consequences of Russia invading the Baltic states. Could become sporty after the 18th of march (Russian election). The US and the UK care less and less about the continent and France will not us the red button for the Baltics (less sure about Poland), they need US planes to refuel their jet fighters inflight anyway. Sanctions have proven one thing: Russia does whatever Russia wants, and they have an excellent military.
  • RH
    Robert H.
    30 December 2017 @ 17:02
    This prediction of problems for Trump will prove as insightful as the short call in oil. The one fighting to keep herself out of jail is HRC and I bet she fails.
  • TE
    Tito E.
    30 December 2017 @ 11:18
    Would be great to see another long form interview with Edward Misrahi
  • MM
    Mark M.
    30 December 2017 @ 04:26
    Raoul is spot on
  • BR
    Bernard R.
    29 December 2017 @ 21:57
    Dear Raoul, it has been over a year and a half and Mueller still has nothing on Trump. We now know that the FBI hated his guts...and with all their resources...They...the all mighty FBI had NOTHING on Trump to stop him...they came up with this phony Feinstein said they have nothing yet...and had there been something there, Comey would have leaked it. You have got to give it to Trump...he's winning. My prediction, Mueller shuts it down soon ...or turn his sights on the democrats to save his reputation and finds plenty of collusion wit Russia from the Clintons, Podesta and associates. You reap what you sow now comes to a beautiful conclusion, the Deep State and Democrats finally reap what they deserve. And Trump wins again.
    • CH
      Colin H.
      30 December 2017 @ 04:09
      There's quite some scuttlebutt about Trump laundering money for the Russian mafia via Felix Sater. I'm not so sure about the collusion stuff but I'm pretty sure the money laundering rumours are legit. If he has an Achilles heel, that's it.
  • HR
    Haz R.
    30 December 2017 @ 00:28
    No mention of North Korea???.....................................................................
    • SS
      Swagotom S.
      30 December 2017 @ 02:03
      I think someone said the best (forgot the exact source of the video): to understand real threat of North Korea, look at the market performance of Japan and South Korea, who are obviously under the radar from NK before any of their stuffs comes to the US.
  • SS
    Swagotom S.
    30 December 2017 @ 01:52
    Not sure about Russia story - seems it will eventually run out of steam over time, but I think RV should really bring some fresh discussions on the broader picture / complexities of the pharmaceutical industry. IPOs in the areas of new drug discovery (for human and pets), gene therapy, biosimilers, or generic drug manufacturers are significantly dominant in the nasdaq i.e. more and more discoveries in science - a catalyst of probable growth and frauds (according to a recent Nature stat, ~80% of the research outcomes published in the journals can't be repeated to reproduce the same results) are also expected to be higher in this field. Other than two interesting discussions of R Pal and John Hempton, it seemed that RV is somehow missing a big and complex industry that includes not only the West but also the East (as it gets richer over time).
  • JZ
    J Z.
    29 December 2017 @ 23:29
    Trump-Russia investigation is a manufactured hoax
  • AA
    Aymman A.
    29 December 2017 @ 22:16
    I agree with Raul. Volatility will rise. I remember reading a report that divided the equity and credit cycle into four stages. The last stage of the Equity bull is a high volatility market. This happened in 1999 and in 2007. The difference is that now there is no bubble and no housing bubble. There is a bubble is in passive ETF investing. The market is implicit short volatility. This Equity bull IS different because it cannot have a high volatility phase. The driver for the Equity bull is the low volatility situation. Remove that condition and reason for continuous passive flow of money goes away. Low volatility also creates extremely fat tails. If volatility moves up for any reason it can precipitate a phase shift and discontinuous change in prices. This bull is DEPENDENT for its survival on the low volatility background. This was NOT the case in earlier bull markets. Inflation, rising commodity prices can flip volatility. Iflation has fat tails. Look at a 40 year chart of the 5 year or 10 year yields. An almost 40 year trend is being broken. People get do lost in 1 year prognostications that they fail to pay attention to the really long term charts. Second candidate that can spike volatility is the political stuff that Raul talked about. ANY cause of high volatility can potentially case a phase shift in the perceptions of the crowd. I totally disagree that volatility can slowly rise a bit. That is just too cute an assessment. Vol will either stay low or will rise and completely flip the reality in every asset class. Inflation and political risk are the 2 major threats out there and the market has a massive short gama structure.
  • MC
    M C.
    29 December 2017 @ 17:53
    That was fun. Geez Raoul. Way to wake me up on a sleepy Friday before the end of the year.
  • BB
    Brian B.
    29 December 2017 @ 17:41
    Not one mention of political crisis brewing in Germany and Italy! Very interesting this wasn't on anyone's radar. Markets will continue what they do, bring everyone to one side of the boat (long Euro) then flip the narrative on it's head.
  • KO
    Kieran O.
    29 December 2017 @ 16:15
    This was fun.
  • PP
    Patrick P.
    29 December 2017 @ 15:45
    Raoul..... IMO John Schindler is part of the "SWAMP" ....his cred took a major hit with this penis picture scandal....
  • MA
    Michael A.
    29 December 2017 @ 12:47
    Interesting to hear Michael's thoughts on GBP. Never really saw it that way before. Also interesting that hardly anyone is bearish equities - very much at odds with the narrative that I've seen from real vision guests this year (not a criticism). Thanks for providing fantastic content RV and all the best for 2018.