A Generational Macro Event From Capital Concentration to Capital Distribution

Published on
October 30th, 2019
Duration
24 minutes


A Generational Macro Event From Capital Concentration to Capital Distribution

The Expert View ·
Featuring Trevor Noren

Published on: October 30th, 2019 • Duration: 24 minutes

Trevor Noren, managing director at 13D Global Research and Strategy, discusses how the concentration of wealth and corporate power is shaping his macro perspective. He sees the past three decades of industry consolidation as root causes of the problems that the American economy currently faces: stagnant growth, increasing wealth inequality, and a QE-dependent stock market. Noren predicts that this trend of consolidation will reverse, and he sees significant investment potential in gold, small cap stocks, and companies leading the decentralization movement. Filmed September 26, 2019 in New York.

Comments

Transcript

  • NP
    Nick P.
    12 November 2019 @ 08:41
    Trev has some great ideas, but. I just returned to Australia after 25 years. I live in central Melbourne. I'd say more than 50% of the women drive an SUV and wear Lululemon yoga pants even on days they don't work out. Millennials don't give a shit about anybody then themselves. Poor millennials work at McDonald's or TGI Fridays and don't have time to think about social change. These kids are too busy to change the status quo. Yeah, they all use iPhones, but their influence is not equal. So weird how these experts always think the next generation (millennials) will give up wealth and privilege to be "equal." Very weird or dumb.
    • PH
      Peter H.
      17 December 2019 @ 05:56
      I'm also in Australia and a millenial. I feel more and more of my generation are filled with disgust at the current systems. Part of the shift is that even attempts to move wealth taxation to levels from the 90s are called socialism to shut them down. A chunk of the population has thus turned into "So I guess the only way is socialism then", because calm mature movement to fix income inequality has been refused (the last election was an example. minor redistribution was decried) I also feel the crowding of the educated is a huge problem too for millenials. Upward mobility was developed in education, but downward movement in the inadequate has not been encouraged. So job openings for starters are clogged with both the upwardly mobile and the well connected dullards.
  • DN
    Dave N.
    31 October 2019 @ 17:32
    Really nice piece. I think 13D can be added value, but still hard for me to forgot awful peak oil call.! Think he got a lot right in terms of big picture themes/narratives, but would have expected more inclusion of China role in current consolidation and how their authoritative capitalism will impact capital distribution.
    • KO
      Kyle O.
      30 November 2019 @ 23:58
      Would love to see someone cover the stakes & nuances of authoritarian (China) vs neoliberal (USA/EU) capitalism moving forward and its potential impacts across broad sectors like technology, defense, academic rsearch, etc. The Kyle Bass episodes touch on this but only at a surface level.
  • WM
    Will M.
    17 November 2019 @ 14:38
    Enjoyed the interview. Agreed with most of his observations. I keep hearing about how millennials will inherit vast wealth from their boomer and early Gen X parents. This will occur ONLY if we do not experience an asset collapse in the next 5 to 10 years. Is that feasible? Additionally the boomers are going to want to pay for their healthier retirements (more healthy and "younger at heart" pensioners than their parents) by spending savings and downsizing properties to fund retirement trips and "cruises". I suspect boomers will hand down much less wealth than some expect even in good economic circumstances. If a debt collapse occurs, the transferred wealth will likely be less than that which the boomers received from their parents.
  • DH
    Dabangg H.
    30 October 2019 @ 21:09
    Gosh the music is jarrring. It doesnt help that is is played at a high decibel!
    • AC
      Andrew C.
      1 November 2019 @ 03:16
      Not sure why but real vision video editors still haven’t got the point. The issue is the music being three times louder than the interview. Full volume to hear the interview breaks your eardrums with almost no warning when the music comes on. Happy with the music just turn the bloody volume down!
    • WM
      Will M.
      17 November 2019 @ 14:23
      Agree it seems like such a SIMPLE fix, perhaps the sound editor is hearing challenged .....
  • AK
    Ado K.
    30 October 2019 @ 12:56
    Millennials (and I am one) will have a very interesting choice to make. To unfunded liabilities in the US, Europe and Japan are simply to large to be paid without substantial inflation/hyperinflation or without raising taxes a lot while minimizing government benefits to non pensioners. I think my generation will unfortunately choose hard core socialism with large wealth taxes and effective tax rates well above 60 %. This combined with MMT will most likely lead to a economic demise seldom seen in western Europe and the US. Holding Bitcoin, physical gold and being ready to arbitrage between countries and move where the tax rate is low/none seems like a no brainier kind of decision.
    • JM
      Jonathan M.
      30 October 2019 @ 15:12
      I disagree, once these Millennials (which I am one) get some $ in their pocket there views will change quickly. They/We are no different than prior generations.
    • RS
      Ryan S.
      30 October 2019 @ 17:01
      As a fellow millennial (‘92), I tend to agree with you. It’s sad, but our generation is so economically ignorant and think there’s a free lunch. However there’s opportunities in every crisis for sure. For example, long puts on healthcare will be a great play if Sanders/Warren get the nomination.
    • DB
      Douglas B.
      30 October 2019 @ 19:36
      Ryan. I am not a Millennial and in my experience in talking to Millennials they are no more ignorant to economics/finance than gen x (my generation) or boomers.
    • RM
      Robert M.
      30 October 2019 @ 23:42
      As a baby boomer, I will tell you that every generation is different and money often makes you think in terms of helping others than just keeping it in your pocket. If you read Neil Howe's book "Generations" you will see there is a contrast in how people think from generation to generation. So if socialism rises up with millennials, then it may stick. Baby boomers worked hard to get us into this situation of debt and unfunded liabilities so it will take another generation to make the changes to get us out of it.
    • PP
      Patrick P.
      1 November 2019 @ 02:12
      Reply to Chris M... I am a baby boomer ..on the top end of that spectrum (born in 1945). So I was 20 when Lydon B Johnson instituted Medicare and Medicaid. Social Security was instituted in 1935. LBJ also played a hand in the institution of the student loan program along with a bunch of social programs we have today like section 8 housing. So your comment that the baby boomers worked hard to get us into this mess is plain wrong. You need to blame your Father and Grandfather for the mess.
    • WM
      Will M.
      17 November 2019 @ 14:21
      Yes I am a boomer born in 56. Initially I agreed with Chris M, but after pausing each generation takes sometime to establish itself as the preeminent power broker. The Boomers did not start to exercise decision making power in government until their 40s, so lets call it the 1990s. Political and economic policy decisions were made by the Silent generation from the end of the 60s through to the early 90s. So the Boomers are not primarily to blame for the guns and butter decisions. However, the post 2000 economic management has been solidly driven by boomer political power and we have unfortunately failed to "grasp the nettle" of deficit spending and entitlement management. Politicians typically only act when there is a crisis and the entitlement crisis is almost upon us. The next recession (that government and banking are fighting to suppress) will expose the vastness of the entitlement deficit for all to see. That crisis will bring about means testing, benefit trimming through reduced inflation indexing payments, rising taxes on ALL but especially the perceived wealthy (certainly anyone with $250k or more income), and a push back against monopolies.
  • RH
    Robert H.
    7 November 2019 @ 22:28
    "...34 years...", interesting.
  • TM
    Tom M.
    5 November 2019 @ 00:01
    I hope he is right. We'll see.
  • EK
    Edward K.
    4 November 2019 @ 16:13
    "innovators recognize that there is a profit and a SOCIAL responsibility". Whew certainly contravenes the neoliberal doctrine which has held sway for decades. Looks like Hayek misinterpreted "The Road To Serfdom" as it has many more paths than socialism.
  • TS
    Taranvir S.
    4 November 2019 @ 14:12
    I had an opportunity to work on 5G-related projects at work previously and the fact for B2B business applications is that almost nobody knows how 5G, AI, ML, Blockchain etc. can be applied on massive scales in a cost-effective (highlight this) manner. Most people keep throwing out buzz words but the solutions that we need are a long-way ahead. But nevertheless, an informative interview about the consumer side of things
  • XF
    Xavier F.
    4 November 2019 @ 02:03
    excellent ! thanks
  • WA
    Wissam A.
    2 November 2019 @ 09:07
    Please bring Trevor once a month on RV. By the way he looks a lot like Clark Kent :)
  • RP
    Raoul P. | Founder
    31 October 2019 @ 02:02
    Sounds like a 4th turning is also part of 13D's hypothesis...
    • PK
      Patrik K.
      1 November 2019 @ 22:32
      That also crossed my mind when he was talking.
  • CD
    Cheryl D.
    1 November 2019 @ 18:25
    excellent!!
  • KK
    Kiwoong K.
    1 November 2019 @ 05:16
    Candy to the ears. Only thing is, these things don't normally occur with a lot of bloodshed....
    • KK
      Kiwoong K.
      1 November 2019 @ 05:16
      I wish and hope I'm wrong.
    • KK
      Kiwoong K.
      1 November 2019 @ 05:23
      Wrote too soon, he does get into this about a minute before the video ends
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    31 October 2019 @ 13:41
    Very interesting points. I love 13D’s work. Thank you, Trevor!
    • JH
      Jesse H.
      31 October 2019 @ 13:47
      One thing I find very interesting, and which we have to think about, is the degree to which ZIRP (and now NIRP, God help us) has led to consolidation by favouring capital over labour, and favouring scale. The irony is that if we want a more competitive and fair business landscape, we might have to reboot the monetary system. Just no way CBs will allow rates to rise because it would cause a massive wave of defaults / bankruptcies, and no political or economic decision-maker has the integrity or stress tolerance to do this on their watch. So a monetary reset really is THE only way forward. I suspect they have been developing plans for this transition for some time.
    • JH
      Jesse H.
      31 October 2019 @ 13:48
      Or fiscal policy, which will create inflation and wipe out debt that way. Read: MMT. A very naive and risky idea if history is any guide.
  • HM
    Ho M.
    31 October 2019 @ 03:32
    Hmm, personal opinion, I don't see how IoT, 5G and AI are technologies that "enable" the reversal... If you look at any of these techs, it's mostly consolidated to a handful of major players once again..
    • HM
      Ho M.
      31 October 2019 @ 03:50
      (and just to be clear, I'm on board with the core idea, just not those examples given)
  • PG
    Philippe G.
    30 October 2019 @ 23:46
    Very interesting topic and something that will certainly pick up steam in the coming years I would think. With the advances of technology and communications (e.g. social media), those "left behind" are acutely aware of the wealth inequality, narcissism, etc... Exhibit A - do a Google search on "Rich Kids of Instagram"...
  • GC
    George C.
    30 October 2019 @ 21:50
    Mr. Noren was great. Highly informative. Provocative. Insightful. Much food for thought. One of RealVision's best.
  • NI
    Nate I.
    30 October 2019 @ 19:36
    I sure hope Trevor is right, but all I see on the ground right now is consolidation.
  • KE
    Kathryn E.
    30 October 2019 @ 09:44
    The video is over a month old. My guess is it got pushed for the bitcoin gold special
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      30 October 2019 @ 18:47
      Can't schedule them all at once, I suppose, plus the Bitcoin - Gold special was timely, IMO.
  • BM
    Bryan M.
    30 October 2019 @ 17:17
    Excellent! It is something I have pondered over for some time, as I believe our current economic/social malaise is quite similar to the days of the robber barons which brought about the breakup of Standard Oil and the like. So hats off to you Noren for putting in the research effort to better define the issue.
  • TH
    Timo H.
    30 October 2019 @ 14:02
    Agree 100%
  • JA
    John A.
    30 October 2019 @ 12:53
    Shades of the 4th Turning. I’d be interested to hear if Trevor sees these as cycles, and if so, what the length of these cycles are. Great interview with a unique perspective.
  • AM
    Alastair M.
    30 October 2019 @ 10:48
    outstanding perspective
  • PJ
    Peter J.
    30 October 2019 @ 10:41
    Excellent interview, original thinking, would be good to get back with a deeper dive into thinking around investment strategy and timelines
  • PB
    Pieter B.
    30 October 2019 @ 08:31
    This was brilliant Trevor! Thanks a lot!
  • YU
    Yoni U.
    30 October 2019 @ 08:05
    Don’t be fooled by the dislike ratio. This is a divisive topic. But this is good of a case that you’ll see made for this thesis. Highly recommended watch even if you disagree with the conclusions.
  • IH
    Iain H.
    30 October 2019 @ 07:36
    A significant interview in terms of what is happening geo-politically and financially. I believe we should take note. Thanks Trevor