A Risky Turn in the Business Cycle

Published on
April 16th, 2018
Duration
31 minutes

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70

A Risky Turn in the Business Cycle

The Expert View ·
Featuring Lakshman Achuthan

Published on: April 16th, 2018 • Duration: 31 minutes

Lakshman Achuthan of ECRI joins Real Vision once again to provide an update on where we are in the business cycle. He provides his short-term forecast, and discusses the potential long-term implications. He delves into the causes of the "secular stagnation" the global economy appears to be experiencing. Finally, he explains what most economists tend to get wrong about recessions. Filmed on April 6, 2018 in New York.

Comments

Chapters

  1. 00:01:12
    How Has The World Changed Since May 2017?
  2. 00:02:42
    Where Are We in the Economic Cycle?
  3. 00:03:40
    Is This Drop the Big One?
  4. 00:04:36
    Which Indicators Are Most Important Now?
  5. 00:12:45
    How Dangerous Are These Structural Issues?
  6. 00:19:13
    How Does The US Look Compared to The World?
  7. 00:20:45
    Can US Fiscal Policy Forestall A Slowdown?
  8. 00:23:14
    What Could This Mean for the Markets?
  9. 00:26:45
    How Does Your Framework Differ From Others?

Mark Yusko

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Mark Yusko is the Founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management. He is also the Managing Partner of Morgan Creek Digital Assets.

Morgan Creek Capital Management was founded in 2004 and currently manages close to $2 billion in discretionary and non-discretionary assets. Prior to founding Morgan Creek, Mr. Yusko was CIO and Founder of UNC Management Company (UNCMC), the Endowment investment office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Before that, he was Senior Investment Director for the University of Notre Dame Investment Office. Mr. Yusko has been at the forefront of institutional investing throughout his career. An early investor in alternative asset classes at Notre Dame, he brought the Endowment Model of investing to UNC, which contributed to significant performance gains for the Endowment. The Endowment Model is the cornerstone philosophy of Morgan Creek, as is the mandate to Invest in Innovation.

Mr. Yusko is again at the forefront of investing through Morgan Creek Digital Assets, which was formed in 2018. Morgan Creek Digital is an early stage investor in blockchain technology, digital currency and digital assets through the firm’s Venture Capital and Digital Asset Index Fund.

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Anthony Scaramucci

SkyBridge Capital, Founder & Co-Managing Partner

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Raoul Pal is the Co-Founder and CEO of Real Vision, the world’s pre-eminent financial media platform, which helps members understand the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy.

Real Vision members also have access to Real Vision Crypto, a cryptocurrency and digital assets video channel watched by over 80,000 people. In addition, Raoul has been publishing Global Macro Investor since January 2005 to provide original, high quality, quantifiable and easily readable research for the global macro investment community hedge funds, family offices, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. It draws on his considerable 31 years of experience in advising hedge funds and managing a global macro hedge fund. Global Macro Investor has one of the very best, proven track records of any newsletter in the industry, producing extremely positive returns in eight out of the last twelve years.

He retired from managing client money at the age of 36 in 2004 and now lives in the tiny Caribbean island of Little Cayman in the Cayman Islands. Previously he co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. Raoul moved to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe. In this role, Raoul established strong relationships with many of the world’s pre-eminent hedge funds, learning from their styles and experiences.

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FFTT caters to institutions and sophisticated individuals by aggregating a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks for his clients. Prior to founding FFTT, Luke was a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company, where he worked from 2006-14. At CRC, Luke worked in sales and edited CRC’s flagship weekly thematic research summary piece (“Straight from the Source”) for the firm’s clients. Prior to that, Luke was a partner at Midwest Research, where he worked in equity research and sales from 1996-2006. While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest’s widely-read weekly thematic summary (“Heard in the Midwest”) for the firm’s clients, in which he aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.

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