The 80% of this interview's content was already run at Macro Voices podcast last week!

Ride BTC with a really tight stop? Are you kidding? what is your trigger to get back in after its many 25% pullbacks?

Get a bit skepy when anyone says to ride the Bitcoin wave with a really close stop. Guess it depends on your country's tax laws and personal factors. But if your stop gets taken out on a heavily bought 10% drawdown, your stop just cost you your position, your tax deferment, and the gains on the gap. Shit advice.

Julian never gave a buy signal for the stock market to the Macro Insider guys ... Never happened ....

Thanks Julian. Good update as usual.

A lot of pieces have been taken off the board this millennium. YCC x B, R....Q?

While I understand all the reasons bond yields need to rise, lord knows they have been artificially held down since Yellen moved the goal posts with 6.5% UER back in 2014. However, we currently have the largest GDP output gap ever.. it took 3.5 years to reclaim the $ level of GDP after the GFC. This one will take a lot longer despite the stimulus, as you know until we get an infrastructure bill we aren't creating any productivity with what we have done, just pull forward of demand. So I don't see the Fed backing off it all in the face what's likely to be base effect increases in inflation. In fact I think they will implement YCC if things start to move sharply. While I am a seller of new variants taking over in the US (not clear they are truly more contagious just a bunch of modeled out assumptions) I am concerned the markets are discounting too large of a reopening trade. I don't think it will be quick to reverse the psychological effects this has had on many Americans on both coasts. Further, I think the rest of the states have already reopened and while there may be a bump in service spending as we move forward some of the reopening has already happened. Anyway wouldn't play rates long here for all the reasons you mentioned however I feel most of the easy money has been made in the back up already.

Yep: GDP and Inflation up (in rate of change terms), Fed easy as hell, monster Fiscal spending --> big Opps in the markets!

Julian what about something further for plus members not so further like pro but we plus would love to have you there at least one time a year :)

Great interview. Answered exactly the question ive been wrestling with r.e. the FED acting proactively vs. reactively with respect to YCC. Had also come to the same conclusion that they would need an equity correction to justify it.

Interesting and good. Still, I don't understand the optimism/bullishness. I'm really keen on someone explaining why the negative P/E Russel is trading 30 percent above pre-pandemic levels with many companies in debt and so much uncertainty.

Julian, one of the best!!

A very "nuanced" presentation. ;-))

Julian - thank you. Given that you see the growing potential for a generational trade into EM with a potential massive run for the next decade....wouldn't it be wise to start buying into EM now? Maybe the train has already left the station and it is too risky to sit around waiting for the opportunity where there is going to be a big sell off in EM. It might not be that great of a sell off and there is a lot at stake to be positioned for this massive shift in growth/investment from the US markets into Asian EM going forward.

Great stuff! Would love to hear anyone's thoughts on how to approach EM in particular, maybe RV could do a educational piece on this...

I dont understand how you can mention the effect of LBJ's Greater Society spending on inflation without mentioning the elephant in the room - the draft and enormous ramp up in the Vietnam War.

Confirmation bias is doing its thing, but still great! Lays everything to its correct place.

Thank you, Julian.

Can we get the transcript, please?

Question on position sizing - when holding off some capital for potential risk of buying opportunity is there a % you would suggest leaving on the sidelines? Currently not trading any margin + ~20% cash

Brilliant!

It was ok, nothing new or groundbreaking just same same but different

My favourite and I haven’t even listened yet! I see Julian and I “like!”

Don’t agree with you but great video nonetheless!

Julian, you make the data clear. Thank you. Glad you mentioned real estate. I believe that is one area that is in a bubble. Building new homes, even for high earners is becoming impossible where we live. I was a GC until 2018 and material prices are 3 to 4 times what they were then.

When can this be captioned please? Thanks.

Julian, you mention in your thesis that the US dollar could potentially loose another 30% in value. Does it concern you that the US net International Investment position is -60% of GDP? In other words foreigners own $12T more of US investment assets than the US own of offshore assets. If the US dollar tanks then foreigners will sell to repatriate their money. Thus the $ could crash precipitously further. According to Luke Gromen this is the Fed’s worst nightmare. Then the only way to stop it doing that is to raise rates and blow up the debt.

Thanks for the update Julian. Would love to hear a similar run down that is more European based. The news out of Europe seems to be little to far between of late. It's a bit like when you realise the kids have been playing upstairs for a long period but you can't hear any noise it's time to worry.

I love these expert views. A little shorter, to the point, but still a nuanced look.

Thankyou Julian, what level of confidence do you have that the Fed can accommodate and the keep the dollar decline at a gradual pace rather than a sharp sell down. Cheers

Excellent content thank you.

Thank you for your perspectives.

Awesome as usual! Thank you very much Julian for your informative view!