circling back to this video. a la nina watch was issued last month https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

Probebly the most important lecture of this year. Probebly also not very well understood due to the mainstream disinformation process. Liked your december 2019 paper also very much. Great to have met you through realvision.

If I start investing in food based on long term predictions on climate where no one really has any idea (let's be honest here), pretty soon I won't have money to buy food.

Food has been going down? I'd like what he's smoking.

How many researchers do you have working for Hackett Advisors?

I bet 85% of the people listening to this will think you are a crackpot. I am not one of them and have studied the topic and it's real.

Enjoyed the video. Appreciate counter cultural viewpoints that challenge the status quo. Would love to evaluate the thesis but am struggling to find credible sources that support. Can Shawn or anyone who agrees with the thesis share just a few links to (a) some of the "10’s of 1000s of papers written on the subject matter" that provide " a preponderance of evidence supporting the dominant role of the sun", or (b) the "plethora of articles supporting the suns dominant role in impacting climate"? Many thanks.

good analysis. totally agree re solar cycle.

I'm confused by this presentation, mostly because the speaker seems to be at odds with a scientific consensus about the *magnitude* of the impact of solar cycles relative to atmospheric change (CO2). From the NASA website: "According to the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the current scientific consensus is that long and short-term variations in solar activity play only a very small role in Earth’s climate. Warming from increased levels of human-produced greenhouse gases is actually many times stronger than any effects due to recent variations in solar activity." Can you address / explain this? https://climate.nasa.gov/blog/2910/what-is-the-suns-role-in-climate-change/

Nobody show Greta this video. She will NEVER FORGIVE YOU!!

Thanks Shawn (&RV)! Not enough people are talking about solar cycles, and almost non in finance. Unfortunately many people in our society would consider Shawn a "CLIMATE CHANGE DENIER" (and bad person) for even suggesting that the earth could possibly be cooling or that the major cause of our weather is that giant thing in space that is basically responsible for all life on earth and is 333,000 times more massive than our planet. I believe the focus on (/ pushing of) 'Global Warming/Climate Change' is a ploy by corporations and governments to distract the public from the 'non-debatable' topics of 'natural cycles' and 'particulate pollution'. They keep people arguing whether it was the cow farts, F150s or god, that are melting the polar bear igloos, while ignoring the giant plastic islands floating in our oceans or the massive amounts of carcinogenic chemicals in our food, water and air. The more people argue, the less corps and gov'ts have to do, as taking 'real action' would have significant impact on thier bottom line or elect-ability. The same is true with studying historic cycles, weather, economic, geopolitical, etc. society is pushed to believe that 'this time it's different'. On the bright side, for those who can see through the propaganda and are students of history the potential for gain from the coming shift in our climate and economic systems is very large, though this will come at the expense of the masses, which is kind of a bummer. p.s. If anyone is interest in learning more about solar cycles, and/ or listing to a daily 'solar cycle' new and updates I highly recommend checking out 'Suspisious Observers' on YouTube. (I am in no way affiliated with them). https://www.youtube.com/user/Suspicious0bservers/featured

Are your serious? Do sun spots affect climate? Yes. Do they account for what is going on? No. That is ridiculous as demonstrated by the absolute value of climate change (e.g., temperature of the air, of the ocean, acidifidcation of the ocean, etc.) and the rate of change - both unprecidented.

Excellent. Having been a subscriber to martin Armstrongs site for several years I am of course used to the cyclic theories of climate and solar cycles in particular. So much of Shawns concerns in this segment I am already aware of. This was just a great video and a necessary counter to the global warming fanatics. I recommend Realclimatescience.com if you want to see how data has been manipulated to support global warming theories.

I recall that Papa Smurf was able to see the future during a blue moon. Maybe we should wait for that to make predictions about ag prices.

I like Realvision but I do think that they should warn their members that the views and ideas of this expert are not supported by the scientific community at all. NASA, NOAA, the IPCC and others conclude, based on thousands of peer-reviewed articles and studies, that the impact of the solar cycle is minimal in comparison to the greenhouse effect. The odds are much more in favour of a continuously warming environment, a rising sea-level and extreme, damaging weather, energized by the temperature increase.

Depopulation and Malthusian economics, Green New Deals, food shortages, Beyond Meat, Greta Thunberg's insistence "we don't have time". Are we sensing an urgency that exists to head off Shawn's thesis expressed here? Food for thought (pun intended). Let the debate continue past imposed deadlines.

Not on point but the product shift demands a response How many purchased a product prior to today and are feeling unfairly treated by the 5/wk video limit that didn't exist until today? How many feel they should be grandfathered until their subscription runs out and then make the decision to continue at the lower (actually increased by 50+) or accept the "upsell" at 3x the price??

Fantastic presentation. If the thesis is correct and food prices are going to increase - you can also expect that eventually this will cause political turmoil (protests, riots etc) in poorer countries, this could have far reaching knock-on effects.

Great interview. Love the idea of the sun cycle and saeculum convergence. Makes a lot of sense. Have a super day everyone.

If I may I want to comment on some charts: 1) Greenland ice core at 2:10 There is no explanation what this chart shows. The y-axis says d-oxygen -18 which likely refers to the ratio of an oxygen isotope that is used in paleoclimatology. I am not an expert, so here is from Wikipedia: δ18O can be used with ice cores to determine the temperature from when the ice was formed. Why are you using this particular chart, what statement you are trying to support? 2) Solar radiation cycle at 4:40 Clearly a chart crime. The range of fluctuation on the y-axis is between 1362 and 1360,4, about 0.1%. Cutting off the y-axis so boldly is a massive exaggeration and simply misleading. 3) El Nino/La Nina and sun spot activity at 10:29 The chart does not support the statement “At solar cycle troughs there is a very reliable El Nino to La Nina switch over”. The switchovers don’t align with the troughs much to my eye. 4) USDA Corn Supply Use Yield
 at 11:37 Again, the chart does not support the statement, that drops in yield occur during La Nina years. There are significant drops outside La Nina years, as well as La Nina year without drops. Seems like hit and miss. So, is the speaker right about weather cycles? Probably, these patterns have been known for a long time. Is he right about commodity prices, we will see.

Really enjoyed this. This is very different than the normal RealVision type of guest. Would love to see more on non-PM commodities such as livestock, rare earth metals, etc.

I enjoyed this presentation very much Mr. Hackett, mainly because I had done a lot of research (I'm trained in the scientific method) and of course I follow, or rather, am bombarded by politics on a daily basis. For those that doubt that the solar cycles and activity are the main driver of temperature and weather, keep it simple, follow the data --- and the clear historical trends. You will see that at the very least, any other explanation, commonly the global warming morphed term "climate change" has produced models that have been so inaccurate, failed, wrong, it's quite embarrassing. So that alone should make one inquire into other fields of study or alternate explanations. You will see that even in just the 20th century, as Mr. Hackett states, the 40 year periods of weather/solar cycles are blatantly obvious, especially the 1920s and 30s in the US being much, much hotter and far more extreme (dust bowl, etc). Milankovitch cycles are larger pictures of the galaxy, far less "useful" to us in this realm of our lives and investing, but informative on human adaptation/evolution over time. I foresee the coming cooling periods to confirm the global hoax (I do not argue it's a conspiracy, just a follow the money idea) that is called climate change now (in that it is not anthropogenic, and that the term is an outright deception, as you can't argue it). It will be obvious to any sane or honest thinker in 15 years that this hypothesis is true. But depending on a lot of sociopolitical factors, it may still be disputed --- again, I predict that given the level of critical thinking and honesty doesn't seem to be rising to any great degree or in the near future will that change. From an investment point of view, there will be a lag given the current food production and technical efficiency of humans in procuring and manipulating the environment, but I see consistent gains over the 10-15 year period, just like Mr. Hackett. What's more, even though what I say is not actually political, it will be taken that way, due to the dishonesty and close mindedness of others regarding the challenging of theories, predictions and models that have been utter failures. I am very confident, that unlike the "climate change" alarmists, who have no real skin in the game, I will put my money where my mouth is. And like Mr. Hackett, we will be rewarded. So, I would recommend --- follow the real money, those who put it in ideas and instances in which they have skin in the game. Best to all.

Hurray for Shawn and for RV. As numerous fellow subscribers have already stated, you won't see content like this in many other places and certainly not on mainstream TV or financial news channels. Fortunately I came across similar arguments to Shawn's based on accurate research and science fact from Dr. Mark Sircus (https://coldclimatechange.com) several years ago, and knew the global warming / climate change nonsense pedalled by politicians was a scam to tax us even more. Well done RV and thank you Shawn.

So every 40 years the avg winter temp is expected to start fluctuating and moving up or down.

thank you!

This approach appears to reflect the work of Theodor Landscheidt/Geoff Sharp (and others)/Henrik Svensmark.

I think I heard this same argument six years ago

He is always great. Love hearing what he has to say.

Love this. I have been drumming this into anyone who will listen for years, if anyone with a scientific background would understand this. Well done to RV, this is why RV is so valuable to it's subscribers. Priceless.

Whats this guys view on how Nasa explains climate change? https://climate.nasa.gov/causes/ evidence show that current global warming cannot be explained by changes in energy from the Sun: Since 1750, the average amount of energy coming from the Sun either remained constant or increased slightly. If the warming were caused by a more active Sun, then scientists would expect to see warmer temperatures in all layers of the atmosphere. Instead, they have observed a cooling in the upper atmosphere, and a warming at the surface and in the lower parts of the atmosphere. That's because greenhouse gases are trapping heat in the lower atmosphere. Climate models that include solar irradiance changes can’t reproduce the observed temperature trend over the past century or more without including a rise in greenhouse gases.

Please, for the love of God, RealVision….change the roll in/out music. 1.) The volume level is completely out of phase relative to the content. 2.) It is not conducive to learning. Rather, it is extremely abrasive and the furthest thing from sonorous. That said, great content, as always.

I remember one of the macro discussion tables at the Real Vision event in the Bowery last January proposed this very topic. At the time I had never heard of it in the context of its effects on climate, only its effects on communications (Ham radio enthusiast). Was that you Shawn? Its a fascinating thesis that every long term investor should consider, IMO. That said, I think as a global society we should also continue to try to be kinder to the environment. Having recently spent two weeks diving near Raja Ampat where a sat phone was the only way to call home, it was very disheartening to see piles of plastic water bottles, flip flops, fishing gear and other discards of modern civilization piled up on the windward side of every single tiny island in the area. Even the most fervent climate change denier has to admit that filling the oceans with garbage and environment with poisons probably won't be appreciated by the great grand children.

I'm 50 and for my lifes duration this argument about mans effect on climate, global warming, has been agonsingly ongoing. I do wonder why the global warming set dont take another tact - global pollution is an undeniable issue, and addressing this would likely address concerns for CO2 emissions also. Why the insistence on flogging a dead, or at the very least, a terminally intoxicated 'AGW' horse? Also, if the productivity of marginal latitudes is affected as per Shauns research, food-value moves back toward the centre of the globe, a boon of sorts for the EM regions.

Loved this. Thanks!

Nailed it RV ! Well laid out investment thesis with analytical substance. No hype or emotional tag line. Shawn presented a balanced and level headed argument with historical context to back up his claims. What I would expect from a professional with skin in the game and interest aligned with his clients. Well done and thank you.

Greenhouse gases are a much greater impact than the sun. This made little sense to me.

So let’s say this thesis turns out 100% accurate. Wouldn’t that mean that the most extreme weather events are still 20 years out?

Dragon portfolio looking pretty good here!

https://electroverse.net/greenlands-smb-gained-7-gigatons-yesterday/

On the verge of a global cooling cycle, Govs and CBs are tripping over themselves to allocate budgets and set policy to fight climate change. Could be one the greatest heists of all time. Great stuff, Shawn. Thanks RV.

Stunning video. Absolutely loved the content. Goes to show how less we (the mainstream) understand the cosmos and how we are affected by the heavens. Thanks Shawn. Thanks RV!

Awesome content, well done lads.

Well this sucks. Western. Canada gonna take it on the chin again.

On a grand scale people will say for the sake of your children and grandchildren care about CC, but no such scale when talking about the national debt. The difference between a spending program and a savings program, maybe?

Predicting medium and long-term weather patterns for the Earth is one of the most important issues of the day. I applaud Mr. Hackett for laying out his model, variables and predictions. Surely there is time to tell if the proposed climate changes will affect the cost of commodities mentioned. I do not see any reason to rush out and by coffee today. The weather of spaceship Earth is a difficult and complex system. Mr. Hackett has proposed his hypothesis and forecasts. Weather patterns can be analyzed to see the predictive quality of his thesis. Let us hope this will add to our understanding and predictability of our weather in the medium and long term. DLS

Great stuff. I've learned quite a bit from Mr. Hackett's contributions to RV!

Wow. Thank you for presenting your findings. I can imagine my PC college classmates starting a riot if they heard this. We have to consider all viewpoints skeptically and make as rational a decision as possible (both on agricultural commodity investing and this climate change debate). Hope you can come back on Real Vision and elaborate more on your research. Will definitely check out your research reports.

Absolutely fantastic video. I have for years always believed that the sun is the driver of our weather patterns. One of the best RV videos for me to date.

Absolutely brilliant, Shawn. Thank you for your in-depth analysis and willingness to share.

Dude was fascinating. Great piece. No matter where you stand. Thank you.

Interesting to correlate this one to a few financial ructions too: https://en.es-static.us/upl/2018/12/Sunspot-activity-observation-dec6-e1544118001987.jpeg

this guy is not getting on any other financial content platform... his views are a bit too off topic. Another reason why I love RV, they bring on so many interesting and diverse people who bring with them interesting & unique points of view. NICE WORK!

Natural Gas looks like a good buy regardless, even a forecast of cold weather can do wonders to the price in the winter and the contango looks relatively smooth.

Thank you for having the courage to present this video.

I am pretty sure we are not allowed to talk about this

Awesome! Would have liked to hear more.