Comments
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SHExcellent presentation and discussion, really worth coming back after reflecting on the content. Diego walks you through his thesis with a straightforward and clear style, taking the complex constructs and articulating them clearly.
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DSRestated. The anti-bubble strategy can certainly work. The other possibility is just to deflate the bubble. S&P P/E of 22 down to 15. The decline in the S&P can be even greater than the delta in the P/E ratio if corporation earnings are reduced by the high US dollar and the escalating trade war. DLS
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DSI revisited this interview today. It would be excellent to have Mr. Parrilla do a follow up now that the VIX is around 22 and much more expensive. Gold has not done as well as we would expect either. The central banks are realizing that each new QE has less and less effect on the economy. With floating rates and off the gold standard I think that stocks and bonds both dropping sharply is the only an-bubble that works.
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RKIf the evidences are presented that would have been helpful.
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DYDiego, thank so for the interview! Can I ask this: - if I understand correctly one possible trade idea is to short high yield bonds? Is it still okay to do and what is the vehicle for a smaller retail sophisticated person to do? - speaking of Gold do you prefer Physical or ETF or gold miners. Just a quick general answer would be greatly appreciated. Thanks
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GFExcellent interview. Just one complaint, for which I feel like a broken record. RV PLEASE voice over the questions. I prefer to listen to these interviews, as the video is just a talking head, but only flashing the questions on the screen makes that difficult. If we could hear the questions, the flow of the presentation would be greatly enhanced!
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WSI see Diego responded below, so I will hope he reads this and responds...Diego: When you mention insurance, what product or what exactly are you using as insurance? Are you able to share this? Thanks.
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WMVery coherent simplified explanations. Thanks Diego for a quality and straightforward explanation supporting the "its all one big trade" perspective. Just bought the book.
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ZWLast I checked Romeo and Juliet is play not a movie... :) Great interview.
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KvOne of the most logical and air tight pieces of analysis I’ve seen on RV. Fantastic!
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CDOne of the best interviews I have seen here on RV. Just great logic, reasoning and conclusions. Get Diego back!
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ASthanks! gone to buy some VIX calls
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WBFantastic. Period.
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JLexcellent presentation with keen observations about volatility and a nice reminder at the end of what the likely future is for markets.
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myAnyone got an idea what his exact strategy sounds like? He's buying cheap gld calls? Spx call spreads? Not clear just what he's up to.
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MGFantastic! Thank you Diego!
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PGInteresting angle to describe current state.
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HSFantastic. Thank you Diego.
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tWBubbling brilliance.
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MRQuite liked this video. Good job
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BFthe single best description of the macro economic/financial environment that i have seen.
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JBWhat a brilliant way to describe a complex issue and to summarize what appears to me to be a great book. What I’d love to learn is how - as a retail investor - I can invest in volatility and other insurance products?
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JSWOW !!! I want that book.
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TSAs a fellow alumnus of the Colorado School of MInes, I know the rigor behind your thinking and analysis. Looking forward to reading your book on anti bubbles! Also listening to your colleague, Daniel Lacalle on Macro Vision.
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ABMy scrambled thoughts put into a well structured presentation. Well done
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PCGreat overview of our big picture & practical too
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NIThanks Diego. I enjoyed your presentation. Do you worry about counter party risk? Especially if the markets had a 1987 type event. I think about insurance companies and how often mommies and daddies (in the form of re-insurance and taxpayers) are forced to run to the rescue and bailout the insurer when the cat 5 hurricane actually hits. Could the put writers cover them vis-a-vis a major market dislocation? Kinda thinking a good old fashioned long-short book is maybe a better way despite the availability of cheap insurance (that I worry might not be able to pay when it's needed most).
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PDSimple, eloquent, ..... superb!!
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FCGood presentation. His framework is very similar to Mark Spitznagel (Universa). BTW, Mark should definitely be a guest on RVTV
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CADoes anyone know what watch Diego is wearing in this interview?
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RAHave enjoyed every Diego RV presentation! Great synopsis of where we are (I bet even his Mother understands). Japan, of course, seems to be the Canary and the one to watch—Japan does have some well known shock absorbers in that they are an insular Country with significant cultural, linguistic and behavioral homogenous attributes. Better hope the Robotics arrive in time to feed and clean them due to their demographic deficit though. Some Gold, some Volatility tail risk insurance and a heavier weighting of cash seems to be the “participation fee” for staying @ the Party.
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SPProbably one of RV's best overall presentations on the current global financial systems' woes. His analogies used to explain in simply terms, the very complex interactions between investors, monetary authorities and markets are superb. Diego is just one of a growing number of top money managers warning us that major social and monetary system change is not far off. At least we are receiving plenty of warning via RV. The sub is worth every cent!!
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TJDiego has an extraordinarily charming style of presenting his case and even more importantly some very persuasive arguments on bubbles and anti bubbles. With Wall Street stocks looking decidedly wobbly once more, a very timely video to help focus what Mr. Market may do next.
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JFVery clear. Too bad this knowledge isn't even more wide spread!
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CLHola Diego. The climbing comparison is fantastic. Are there any non-sophisticated instruments to use as that "market insurance" you state which would be accessible to a non-expert individual investor? I have no clue about derivatives but I am myself investing in uranium related equities and would be very much interested in hedging those specific positions in that manner given the intrinsic volatility this sort of asset usually has. I'm guessing for this asset insurance would not be so cheap but might be worth looking into. P.S: la manera de explicar toda la dinámica (opinión que comparto) es cojonuda. Enhorabuena!
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DBWow - really awesome presentation. Loved the concepts and investment thesis. Thank you, RV!
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rrThanks Diego, excellent analysis of the big picture provided through the system(s) thought processes of an engineer. The examples and imagery add great color and make the discussion quite enjoyable.
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JHI loved this analysis — absolutely fantastic. Please have Diego on again soon. His ideas and approaches really merit a deeper dive, I believe.
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DSExcellent use of thoughtful metaphors and examples to explain the current situation vis-a-vis Mr. Soros' groundbreaking book. The point of view is solid and helps us to keep thinking about what kind of bubble are we in now. I loved the use of "anti-bubble" for symmetry. Good luck on your book and investing. DLS
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MSCongrats on the interview. Diego, timing is everything in life for the precise point of reversion of a trend, nevertheless there is no time for insurance! I couldn't agree more with the idea of market complacency and "belief bubble". Insurances should be on portfolios and true diversification...
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PDThis guy (whom I have never heard of before) is a great communicator. He explains the bear dilemma - how to invest in a world of bubbles - perfectly. His "anti-bubble" thesis is a bit gimmicky ...but it's effective. I'd be interested to know how his book is doing and how his funds are performing. In any case, the video is worth watching twice.
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PHSuch a great overview of the largest bubble in modern financial history.
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JSVery well articulated ...really enjoyed this interview
Chapters
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What's The Central Bank Put?
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What's "Fiscal Credit"?
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How Would You Characterize the Search for Yield?
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Is This Time Different?
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What About the Equity Markets?
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What Role do Liquidity and Leverage Play?
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Where do you see the Greatest Risk?
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Where are the Anti-Bubbles in this Market?
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Do you Have a Timeframe on a Potential Unwind?
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How do You See the Big Picture?