Distressed Sovereign Debt: The Final Frontier of Active Management

Published on
January 16th, 2020
Duration
27 minutes

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7

Distressed Sovereign Debt: The Final Frontier of Active Management

The Expert View ·
Featuring Hans Humes

Published on: January 16th, 2020 • Duration: 27 minutes

Hans Humes, CEO of Greylock Capital, has participated in more sovereign debt restructurings than perhaps anyone else on the planet. He breaks down the current sovereign debt landscape with particular focus on Argentina's newest restructuring. Humes also examines distressed sovereign debt as an asset class, explaining why the political nature of crisis, ever-evolving legislation, and headline-driven markets will leave ample opportunity for the chosen few who swim in these deep waters. Filmed on January 10, 2020 in New York.

Comments

Transcript

  • CF
    Cristina F.
    26 January 2020 @ 15:24
    1 1
    Dissapointed by this: not sure if the questions were just too generic but came across as one those CIOs that trade on headlines- little substance
  • JK
    Jay K.
    24 January 2020 @ 00:01
    1 0
    Reminds me of dumpster diving.
  • ET
    Eduard T.
    23 January 2020 @ 04:47
    0 0
    Excellent - Thanks!
  • TF
    TOMASZ F.
    22 January 2020 @ 11:15
    1 0
    Good call on LEBAN 6 ⅜ 03/09/20 ( XS0493540297 ) after interview traded 79/81 news today {LE} LEBANON - [RTRS] - LEBANON PM HASSAN DIAB: NEW GOVERNMENT'S ECONOMIC, FINANCIAL APPROACH WILL BE "COMPLETELY DIFFERENT" THAN PAST GOVERNMENTS and bond looking better 84.000 / 85.500 84.00 / 85.50
  • FB
    Floyd B.
    20 January 2020 @ 22:00
    0 0
    Very interesting but you are at the deep end of the pool investing in distressed sovereign debt
  • FG
    Flavio G.
    16 January 2020 @ 10:29
    2 0
    Very interesting views on distressed sovereign debt though I can't agree with the statement "Argentina is in good hands". Was that a joke? A stroking hand to the guys running the shit-show there? Argentinian bonds are lately trading higher, like the 2038 USD somewhere around 20% yield. I wouldn't touch it at that premium. I'd demand more. What interests me more are Venezuelan bonds at the right price (given risk and illiquidity). Problem is, it seems that nobody is dealing with them. Any tips where to find a desk trading them?
    • CL
      Claudio L.
      16 January 2020 @ 23:03
      2 0
      Those are the famous hunger bonds since early last year those Sovereigns and PDVSA bonds are halted by US sanctions from trading.
    • FG
      Flavio G.
      17 January 2020 @ 08:46
      0 0
      Thanks Claudio. Maybe halted in the US but it seems there are some desks in Europe that still deal with them.
    • SC
      Sam C.
      19 January 2020 @ 12:11
      0 0
      Since the trade is so restricted, the state somewhat unstable, the collateral doubtfull, I would say you can't trust the price of the Venezuelan bonds.
  • RP
    Ryan P.
    19 January 2020 @ 09:30
    0 0
    How do you faith in emerging markets with a bullish dollar outlook?
  • AC
    Andrew C.
    19 January 2020 @ 06:11
    0 0
    A great talk. Some bonds are worth buying at the right price. What was missing was a discussion on time frames. I know the easy answer is “it depends“, but such a discussion would’ve rounded out the talk as brilliant Buying a bond 20cents on the dollar and holding for five years or 10 or …?
  • AC
    Andrew C.
    19 January 2020 @ 06:05
    0 0
    Part 1
    • AC
      Andrew C.
      19 January 2020 @ 06:05
      0 0
      Sorry seems there’s a bug...
  • TB
    Thomas B.
    18 January 2020 @ 06:50
    0 0
    Great interview. Does anyone know of any material to look at to learn more?
  • GF
    Gordon F.
    17 January 2020 @ 18:10
    3 0
    Referring to the IMF as a largely benevolent institution, resented by both sides, but just trying to do a good job, is a laugh (and a rather bitter one). Rather, I see them as the enforcement arm of the G7, as described in "Confessions of an Economic Hit Man".
  • JN
    James N.
    17 January 2020 @ 00:59
    0 0
    Great interview! I really appreciated the the insight into what is otherwise a completely opaque market. Are there any vehicles for retail investors to access fund managers like Greylock Capital?
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      17 January 2020 @ 17:55
      2 0
      Hi James, Although this is not an absolute answer, most of the opportunity here would be available only to accredited investors. Many of our subscribers are professional or accredited investors. We strive to provide a diverse array of content to help investors at all levels. As a non-accredited investor myself, I see this interview as a great lesson on the type of niche market expertise that is required to generate consistent returns uncorrelated to and potentially in excess of the returns of major equity indices.
  • Av
    Arthur v.
    16 January 2020 @ 18:33
    2 0
    Very good interview. Distressed sovereigns debt is not something for the average investor. If you know your markets there is even value in things that are distressed. You will need specialised firm for this.
  • SG
    Sven G.
    16 January 2020 @ 11:59
    5 1
    best interview for a while on RV... still like the robo questions more than most human interviewers as people like Hans can flow and make his point without interruption.

Chapters

  1. 00:01:57
    SURVEYING THE SOVEREIGN DEBT LANDSCAPE
  2. 00:05:27
    WHAT’S DIFFERENT ABOUT ARGENTINA THIS TIME?
  3. 00:08:12
    THE ROLE OF THE IMF
  4. 00:09:33
    IDENTIFYING OPPORTUNITIES
  5. 00:11:05
    RESTRUCTURING VS. SERVICING
  6. 00:12:45
    SECURITY SELECTION
  7. 00:14:52
    QUASI-SOVEREIGNS
  8. 00:16:00
    EXCITING CORNERS OF THE WORLD
  9. 00:19:02
    RETURN PROFILE: HOMERUNS VS. SINGLES
  10. 00:21:01
    THE FINAL FRONTIER OF ACTIVE MANAGEMENT
  11. 00:22:53
    CONTAGION RISK IN THE SOVEREIGN DEBT MARKET
  12. 00:23:21
    CONCLUSIONS