Global Recession: What’s Next?

Published on
May 11th, 2020
Duration
42 minutes

Trading Through Turbulence: Portfolio Management in Uncertain Times


Global Recession: What’s Next?

The Expert View ·
Featuring Raoul Pal

Published on: May 11th, 2020 • Duration: 42 minutes

“What’s going to happen next?” It’s the question on everyone’s mind, and no one person has the answer. That’s why we’ve put together two incredible weeks of content with varying perspectives from some of the biggest names in finance. Raoul Pal returns to kick off the campaign and update viewers on how his “unfolding” thesis has evolved over the past month. He argues that swift policy response has ended the liquidity phase and ushered in the hope phase faster than previous bear markets -- but the question still remains, “Will hope turn to normalcy or will it give way to insolvency and depression?” Raoul also explains why the bond market is screaming that U.S. rates will go negative and informs viewers on his personal asset allocation. Filmed on May 6, 2020.

Comments

Transcript

  • MP
    M P.
    25 May 2020 @ 18:01
    If Crypto's like Bitcoin become truely valuable why wouldn't any government issue their own crypto's? I would imagine that a Government Backed Crypto is more valuable than a non-government backed crypto. That is why i don't believe in crypto's like bitcoin. They can become zero overnight if the U.S. government came out with a crypto they backed that was their very own.
  • GS
    Gary S.
    25 May 2020 @ 03:18
    90% of positions Ive seen is either really hopefull or really bad as Raouls case. I'm more in the camp of a long shitty grind for 20/21. The other thing, I'm not American, but when I go through every economy right now, I cannot find any economy with more powerhouses than the US. When the pickings are slim, which economy is going to challenge the US? the EU? Japan? China? it aint Brazil, Argentina or India..
  • DM
    David M.
    24 May 2020 @ 18:37
    I saw the Pomp podcast and now think you're the smartest person in the room. I see the clarity and probability of the € falling further faster against the $ but whilst based in the UK I don't know how to take a position on it (save spreadbetting)? Also by your reckoning does deflation US mean inflation UK et al?
  • CH
    Craig H.
    18 May 2020 @ 11:48
    Raoul, Your analysis is spot on in that the financial system of the world was doomed well before the corona (CCP) virus emerged. The only question I have is that as a long time Real Vision viewer, your enthusiasm for crypto currencies is surprising. I remember your report from a year or to ago where you debunked crypto and said that you were not convinced. My opinion is that cryto is the largest ponzi scheme I have ever seen. When a dollar of crypto can be raised to be worth a thousand dollars because of the influx of sheep to the slaughter is mind boggling. My belief is that crypto has become the crime lords' best form of money laundering in history. Regards, Craig Harris
    • PG
      Parminder G.
      24 May 2020 @ 17:56
      I see your point, and agree with you in a way. But the major difference between BTC and fiat currencies e.g. USD is government backing. This is a double edged sword, in that whilst the US government back the USD (in that you can pay your taxes with it), they can also interfere big time and dilute its value. People have had enough and that is one reason I have recently dipped my toe into BTC; one reason was watching this video. The clarity of thought and expression of this video is scary.
  • PG
    Parminder G.
    24 May 2020 @ 15:52
    Apparently, I watched it too often and my "quota has been exceeded"!
  • CG
    Chris G.
    24 May 2020 @ 12:13
    Just finished watching for the third time. I discover something new every time.
  • CN
    Craig N.
    17 May 2020 @ 05:03
    How and where do people hold USD? given the possibility of bank insolvencies and bail in's. Would people consider a crypto stable coin as a viable option to hold USD? thank you in advance
    • FB
      Fabian B.
      24 May 2020 @ 09:43
      Personally I hold dollar mostly in USDC on blockfi as they are also paying 8.6% interest.
  • RJ
    R. J.
    14 May 2020 @ 01:25
    Thank you Raoul for touching on Australia. Also know as "Utopia".
    • NG
      Nick G.
      21 May 2020 @ 02:23
      I wish there was more depth and analysis on Australia with some of the highest household debt in the world and housing prices at astronomical levels. If commodity prices continue to slide as Raoul suggests, this will further burden the Australian economy, which relies heavily on mining. China, their largest trading partner, has imposed tariffs on Australian goods such as barley, with further posturing towards wine and dairy. While the virus has had relatively low health impacts to date, the economic conditions are troubling.
    • GS
      Gary S.
      24 May 2020 @ 06:00
      Fact is, at ground level, if you are an average joe, Australia is your best bet. Not saying it will be rainbows and unicorns, but you are much better off than anyone in Europe or USA
  • MB
    Mitchell B.
    23 May 2020 @ 18:50
    🤯👌
  • PW
    Peter W.
    13 May 2020 @ 10:55
    If I understood you correctly, Raoul, you say you're roughly 25% in gold, 25% in BTC, 25% in cash and 25% in special situations, mostly equities. You also expect US sovereign bond rates to go negative. So why no dollar bond holdings? I thought you'd be filling your boots for a quick capital gain.
    • DM
      David M.
      13 May 2020 @ 16:28
      He has 10s and 5s.
    • JL
      Julien L.
      23 May 2020 @ 08:45
      I wonder the same !
  • PE
    Paul E.
    22 May 2020 @ 17:57
    Wow! I'm glad I joined Real Vision...this analysis is real vision! Thanks.
  • RK
    Ryan K.
    16 May 2020 @ 07:13
    I’ve recently bought my first bitcoin thru Coinbase. Should I be using a different system? What did Raoul say... “Legend LNQ”?
    • JT
      Jose T.
      16 May 2020 @ 17:15
      Nano Ledger X
    • PS
      Paulo S.
      16 May 2020 @ 18:31
      Ledget Nano S, it's a hardware wallet and it's one of the safer ways to keep your crypto, bitcoin, for example.
    • JM
      Jacques M.
      17 May 2020 @ 10:31
      Ledger Nano X
    • AB
      Arif B.
      19 May 2020 @ 01:08
      Just an fyi, buy ledger nano s or x, from only the original website. Do not buy it from third party! Cheers 🍻
    • JR
      John R.
      19 May 2020 @ 07:54
      Ledger Nano X
  • jg
    john g.
    11 May 2020 @ 18:22
    The one thing I think Raoul did not cover is central banks buying stocks as Japan has done. This I think will happen in his likely scenario. What is the impact?
    • TY
      Tony Y.
      11 May 2020 @ 19:45
      Listen to Hugh Hendry talk. Deep OTM calls
    • jg
      john g.
      12 May 2020 @ 00:25
      Tony Y, selling deep OTM money calls yield next to zero profit (but do carry some risk), and since central banks buying stock buoys the market, this is a backward solution. Buying OTM calls means you need a severe move upward to profit. Central banks are trying to cushion fall, and this is likely wasted money.
    • KP
      Kaia P.
      17 May 2020 @ 09:44
      john g. and by a 'severe move upward' you mean something that would be supported by ... say a central bank? could buy bull spread if you think that's the direction where equity markets are heading.
  • WS
    Winslow S.
    11 May 2020 @ 17:32
    Regarding the thesis of MASSIVE USD appreciation (EUR ==> $0.8, JPY --> 250) my question is: why would the US allow that to happen? Currently, the administration seems to believe that a much stronger dollar from here is not in the US's best interests. They can easily devalue the dollar by printing more and buying FX. So why wouldn't they do this if USD starts to go on a rampage?
    • AA
      Anthony A.
      11 May 2020 @ 17:33
      My guess: the fed can print dollar, but they cannot 'give / lend' it away to the chinese and emerging market corporations
    • GC
      Gift C.
      12 May 2020 @ 03:45
      I'd bet they have to open more swap lines to riskier markets
    • KP
      Kaia P.
      17 May 2020 @ 09:40
      Think this may be the next event that Raoul has called as 'Dollar collapsing under its own weight'.
  • AB
    Aditya B.
    11 May 2020 @ 16:20
    Thanks for the update Raoul! One big factor to include in this is that ALL those who are unemployed are now making USD 1000/week from unemplyment checks. For all of them they this is more money than their regular job. We also know that most of the people tht have lost jobs have been the lowest paid workers. So in effect, people who were paid well continued to do job from home and those who could not work from home are making as much if not more money. So people are not cutting back on their starbucks coffee, nike shoes , etc. Almost everywhere you go in USA, there are lines to get in COSTO, SAMS club, Home depot, etc. I am trying to get a fence at home home and the company cant even come dto do evaluation for 1 week, because they are so busy! Similarly, for resturants, they are running out of parking spots because pople are lining up in cars for takeout. So, how will this lead to insolvency? That is the issue I seem to be struggling with. Additionally, I do not see any way that the unemployemnt benefits will be lowered or discontinued. No way in an election year.
    • WS
      Winslow S.
      11 May 2020 @ 17:38
      This is a really good point, and I'd love to hear Raoul's response
    • DS
      David S.
      11 May 2020 @ 18:11
      Two months ago I was killing it working as a travelling nurse practicing in a highly specialized cardiac elective procedural arena. I've been unemployed for going on two months now and can tell you with 100% certainty how not ALL unemployed workers are taking home $1,000/week! I went from making $4k/wk to an UE insurance benefit of $774/wk... My spending on clothes, eating out, travel, entertainment and much more has stopped. This weekend I walked around lower downtown Denver and this normally bustling overcrowded environment was a freaking ghost town. The lines to enter retail establishments are an indicator not of high consumer demand but of businesses enforcing social distancing by limiting entry. I bet people who dream of normalcy anytime soon will be profoundly disappointed.
    • AB
      Aditya B.
      11 May 2020 @ 19:24
      David, I totally get your situation. I am in Medicine as well. Many of us have taken a pay cut. But, that paycut is only significant enough that I will not be upgrading my car or flying business for next couple vacations. None of my colleagues are cutting back on essesntials. Hell, Peloton sales have surged. So I agree that Many high earners have taken some hit. And very few High earners have taken significant hit. Regarding stores, they are full. There is a line for checkout too.
    • SM
      Shantanu M.
      11 May 2020 @ 19:34
      AFAIK most states in US have a cap on how long unemployment benefits can be availed. If Donald Trump loses elections and Senate is still republican then hopes of any more stimulus will evaporate. Already Senate republicans are against providing more help to the common people.
    • KP
      Kaia P.
      17 May 2020 @ 09:06
      Savings rate in the US has gone up to 13% which is highest it has been in almost 40 decades (https://www.statista.com/statistics/246268/personal-savings-rate-in-the-united-states-by-month/). Also, outstanding credit balances have decreased by 30% (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/). This leaves me thinking that a large chunk of people are still a) paying back debt b) saving; which in turn means less revenues to business and less cash flow to pay back debts -> insolvency.
  • TB
    Tad B.
    16 May 2020 @ 23:08
    When ? Yen to 250 in what time frame Raoul ? 18 months or 6 years ? Not possible to answer obviously, but if you're set-up for it already as you say with cash/gold/bitcoin..... you must be expecting a big crack soon.
  • MB
    Mark B.
    12 May 2020 @ 08:31
    Excellent as always Raoul, but being in crypto since 2015 and made lots of profit in 2017(bought gold and realestate from it and traveled a lot, basically exited 90% in late 2017) and being an developer at core(since 1999) I can say BTC has an achillees heel. Its the blocksize. If usage goes up so will the fees and congestions. Yes there is Liquid(its not BTC, it's custodial at best) yes there's lightning(it has bad flaws, plus you need on chain tx's capacity as well, and it's again not BTC) so all the "solutions" are not solutions. Satoshi allowed the 1MB block limit as a temporary spam prevention at the early days, saying it needs to be raised when time comes. There have been large censoring actions against anyone who spoke up during the block size wars, I felt it on my skin as I voiced my concerns in the /r/bitcoin community. Blockstream controls most communication channels and has effectively strangled any voice of reason(to profit off of Liquid?). I'm not saying buy into this or that coin, just that do your due dilligence people: https://medium.com/@johnblocke/a-brief-and-incomplete-history-of-censorship-in-r-bitcoin-c85a290fe43 https://twitter.com/peterrizun (this guy explains nicely what's bad in Lightning and that BTC can scale with blocksize increase) Or google "satoshi 1mb limit" and you can see it was implemented not because it can't scale or something. With all that being said... I also own BTC(among others) hoping it will get fixed, but if absolutely everyone hops on BTC it's going to a screeching halt. I think in a way that some of the other altcoins could provide to be a kind of a "lightning" or "sidechain" to BTC if it persists to keep the limit. But equally it could be a deathtrap for your capital if you can't move it out when you need it. So not everything is peachy in BTC world. Again, I also hold BTC, but not 100%, and that simply from hopes that if SHTF again... we might get the block raised if everyone is aware of the reality that the limit is not good and has no reason to be there anymore, at least not in that "size". Would be great if we can see someone like Peter Rizun debate someone from BTC, so far nobody wants to debate him. Guess why?
    • DT
      David T.
      12 May 2020 @ 12:29
      BTC is not a currency and will not be for a long while. Its just speculation instrument and any news will effect it like a stock. No one would be able to use a currency that flies up and down every hour. Plus, there are scalability and other problems.
    • DB
      David B.
      12 May 2020 @ 14:04
      If you look at BTC as a store of value rather than a medium of exchange, the transaction issues aren't worrisome because volume would be a tiny fraction.
    • MB
      Mark B.
      12 May 2020 @ 18:06
      With 7 transactions per second that gives monthly slightly less than 20Mil transactions capacity. IOW, if 20Mil people use it just to store a part of their monthly paycheck (not withdraw, just store!) they would have to wait a full month until it gets on the blockchain... That's not even a store of value.
    • JA
      Jonathan A.
      12 May 2020 @ 19:10
      @Mark, thats what drives the price of Bitcoin higher. There are plenty of other cryptos for people to store smaller valuations if it takes too long to get onto the blockchain, especially as hyperinflationary scenarios plays out around the world, but if you want Bitcoin, just like if you wanted gold in the 1970s, you have to keep increasing the bid. Bitcoin over time becomes the anchor that other cryptos draw value against, similar to nations against a fixed anchor asset like gold.
    • AK
      Andrew K.
      13 May 2020 @ 01:52
      Appreciate you sharing your viewpoint / advice. I would love to hear your thoughts on if Litecoin could have much more upside. Last time, people jumped into Litecoin to have fast transactions. If mimblewimble works, I see major upside for this coin which gets about as much attention as a lost drunk in the middle of the sierra desert.
    • ES
      Eric S.
      13 May 2020 @ 02:17
      The current Bitcoin blocksize is actually good for Bitcoin. Let the market vote with its money. Please put your money in Bitcoin Cash if you believe larger blocksize is the key to the future of Bitcoin.
    • MB
      Mark B.
      13 May 2020 @ 09:16
      All I'm trying to say is that there was no real discoussion about BTC scaling, it was heavily censored hence the state it's in right now is not something the founder envisioned or what a sane developer would do. We may talk that it's economically good or bad, everyone has their own oppinion. I'm not saying buy into that or this coin. The point is that BTC is not what appears to be from the first glance. If you are aware of the pitfalls and willing to take a bet... go do it(I do, but less than before, now I'm not willing to bet as much as in 2015). I know, it's all madness of the crowds kind of a thing. But we know how these end up. My wish with this was to spread knowledge about the fact that 1MB is not sane and it was never envisioned by the one who invented BTC. It's like saying that the modem speed from 1990 is good for today as you can still get data through, and we'll optimise web pages and content and make better compression for 4K to fit into the 1990 modem speed. The reason is not to switch to a different coin, the reason is that if it again comes to talks to raise block sizes that more people are aware that this is a normal thing and something which improves it for everyone. Same as you want a 4K tv not a CRT(but CRT has deeper black some will cry!). Tech improves, fact. Making transactions expensive might sound short-term nice, but that excludes people from using it. And the more people use it the better it is for everyone. Velocity of money is good, right? Like said, I'm not trying to debate is there a better coin, just saying that BTC could have been more(and still can be), and the "technical" reasons that "1MB is enough", or more is "bad" are fallacies from the eye of a seasoned developer. And THAT was used in the scaling wars as "facts" to keep the 1MB. Rarely anyone was trying to keep the 1MB "because scarcity is good" or something like that, all the "facts" were around "technical issues" like "you want to run it on a raspberry pi" which don't hold water for someone who knows the technicals. But with a bit censoring it's easy to sway people if you suffocate the technical guys which are the minority. I'm just pissed that a few idiots destroyed what could actually have been a saving straw for many more. For us entitled people it's easy to pay 1, 5, 10, 50$ transaction fees. For someone in EM that's a whole day wage or more. Gold they can buy a fraction, it won't cost them much more, that is, they can sell smaller denominations for more as well later. They don't loose the additional "markup" on small quantities. And if all those guys poured into BTC... we would be way higher now.
    • MG
      Max G.
      16 May 2020 @ 19:14
      Smaller block size = higher security. BTC is optimizing for security not transaction volume. Security is what makes it a superior store of value.
  • MG
    Max G.
    16 May 2020 @ 18:54
    Give the long bond trade and how well it has performed, has an investment in US treasury bonds been better than the S&P 500 over some period? I’m not sure how to run that analysis myself.
  • DB
    David B.
    12 May 2020 @ 01:37
    Any guidance on how to get started setting up the bond option bet on the 5yr yield going to near negative that is suggested in passing here?
    • DB
      David B.
      12 May 2020 @ 02:07
      Assuming it’s a call option on the 5 yr...
    • KF
      Karen F.
      16 May 2020 @ 13:03
      I had the same sort of question, no answers. Is it a call option on the 5 yr future (ticker: ZF)?
  • WJ
    Wojciech J.
    13 May 2020 @ 21:23
    Why gold might go higher if you forecast deflation? Gold is not a hedge in deflationary times.
    • KA
      Kat A.
      16 May 2020 @ 07:28
      Did you miss the 'Insolvency Phase'? Gold is a hedge in deflationary times because it is nobody else's liability. Deflation increases debts, so there are bankruptcies. Deflation destroys the banking system, especially when the yield curve is flat negative a long way out. Gold hedges two things: inflation and counter-party risk. Deflation will bankrupt companies (lower demand, higher debt), consumers (lower wages, higher debt) and countries (esp. Eurozone). Ironically, gold only falls in Goldilocks conditions, when there is growth, positive real interest rates (because there are real investment opportunities) and no chance of insolvency in paper assets, be those stocks or non-sovereign bonds (yes, local govt bonds can default). There is proof that there are diminishing real investment opportunities from stock buybacks. Yes, it is corruption, but also an indicator of the actual state of the western economy, even as the infrastructure crumbles (red tape, eco rules, H&S blackmail, etc.).
  • SB
    Stewart B.
    15 May 2020 @ 17:43
    Raoul - you often mention the idea of a central bank + gov jubilee where the central bank buys the gov debt and forgives it (eg BoJ buying all JGBs then forgiving them). My question to you is what incentive would they have to do this? I don't think there is one. As it stands, the yield from QE assets is paid to the gov treasuries anyhow, so they are already effectively cancelled (and monetised too). Effectively you could even have a situation where Japan had 10000% debt to GDP and the BoJ held say 9900% QE assets to GDP. This would effectively look like 100% debt to GDP with a very large narrow money base. IMHO this is where we are already going.
  • BM
    Ben M.
    15 May 2020 @ 17:08
    Love the dog in the background... the real new normal.
  • SL
    Steven L.
    15 May 2020 @ 16:18
    Raoul intriguing & fantastic analysis... also you have a cool looking doggie! What other rule changes do you see beyond debt jubilees and massive massive USD printing that could dwarf other central bank money printing. Is it the IMF, world currency and SDR's to the rescue. Do we return to the gold standard? How are you expressing your Euro trade.
  • CC
    Chandler C.
    14 May 2020 @ 01:45
    @Raoul, I see the immense upside for bitcoin as a new asset class. Government actions to devalue their currencies makes me think that the probabilities of bitcoin breaking out increase. However, I have not heard of any discussion about government actions that could significantly diminish the upside of bitcoin. For example, is it feasible that all central banks and militaries could unite to outright ban bitcoin/crypto? Similar to how the US banned the ownership of gold, is it possible to do that but for crypto? I'm sure there could be other government actions out there that could diminish the value of bitcoin, but I just haven't heard of this possibility being discussed. Maybe it's because there's no possibility?
    • SM
      Scott M.
      15 May 2020 @ 14:33
      Governments can ban Bitcoin but have no power to prevent its transmission. The network can't be shut down. Whereas Roosevelt did ban the conversion of gold into paper money, which severely restricted its economic utility as a currency. We don't need paper money. We just need the internet and someone on the other end of a transaction who recognizes the value of Bitcoin.
  • CT
    Chad T.
    14 May 2020 @ 09:02
    So would someone wanna tell me what the heck I should do with $250,000 in stable value funds sitting in a 401k with fadelity?? This is where I have been for 10 years when Obama got elected and thought this would happen then and didnt. Poor timing I know, but what now?
    • JM
      Jan-Hendrik M.
      15 May 2020 @ 11:46
      Well, first of Raoul could be wrong and stocks could continue to rise. Imo this is not as unlikely as it's conveyed here. In either case, BTC and gold seem likely to rise in any outcome.
    • SM
      Scott M.
      15 May 2020 @ 14:27
      3Ayasoq2wkRjW8a1wdnDNGCifFK3pHs9ps
  • LW
    Lee W.
    14 May 2020 @ 22:21
    Raoul Pal, just fantastic. Thanks.
  • BP
    Benjamin P.
    14 May 2020 @ 14:07
    Bless you Raoul.
  • CC
    Christopher C.
    14 May 2020 @ 08:50
    Raoul, thanks so much for making this available for all subscribers. It is incredible value and highly appreciated!
  • KK
    K K.
    14 May 2020 @ 06:48
    How do you suggest holding USD. Are MMFs OK?
  • CD
    Christopher D.
    12 May 2020 @ 03:27
    Anyone know where I can find the adjusted for inflation Gold chart Raoul shows (besides Bloomberg)?
    • BJ
      Brett J.
      14 May 2020 @ 04:18
      Google gold price and inflation index and divide one into the other
  • NJ
    Nimitt J.
    14 May 2020 @ 03:03
    India and China central banks hold a lot of US$, wont they start to sell if they see their economies at risk? Also can this lead to de globalisation and countries going self sufficient .
  • DC
    Daniel C.
    14 May 2020 @ 02:27
    Watching this scares me....
  • RC
    Ramya C.
    13 May 2020 @ 23:47
    Thank you Raoul! as always impressive insights
  • JS
    Jon S.
    13 May 2020 @ 02:37
    I'm familiar with the Permanent Portfolio Fund...ie roughly ...25% cash, 25% gold, 25% equities, 25% bonds. Is there a fund that adds in Bitcoin to the mix?
    • AW
      Adam W.
      13 May 2020 @ 21:48
      buying and owning bitcoin makes the most sense as he suggested
  • DW
    Doug W.
    13 May 2020 @ 20:52
    can you buy call options on Bitcoin yet?
    • AW
      Adam W.
      13 May 2020 @ 21:47
      deribit offers options - but as he said, buying and owning is going to powerful
  • MH
    Michael H.
    13 May 2020 @ 21:27
    Fabulous! What can go wrong with your thesis? Clearly the Central Banks and the politicians know the risk and what's coming. What can they do to soften the blow or at least delay the inevitable? Thank you.
  • AT
    Ahmad T.
    13 May 2020 @ 21:23
    Thank you Raoul.. Very insightful. Right now, if i buy stocks, i only buy company with stable cash-flow generating power in current condition. For example internet provider company.
  • RL
    Ross L.
    13 May 2020 @ 18:41
    Raoul, your light bulb moment regarding the differing liquidity value of money printing was jaw dropping. That one point of clarity brought so much value to the problem of currency valuation. I can't wait to see what the good fellows over at PIIE come up with once they start putting an econometric weight to that missing piece of the puzzle. I hope your idea gets in front of someone there. Or perhaps never mention it again - at least until we (your subscribers) have cleaned up in the currency markets....
  • TS
    Theodoros S.
    11 May 2020 @ 20:55
    Why a strong dollar relative to all the other currencies is bad in that next phase for all the others except USA. Can someone explain the logic.
    • JB
      Jim B.
      11 May 2020 @ 21:37
      My understanding, not an expert: Strong dollars means all other countries including poor ones have to pay more for imports. The higher it goes the more painful it will be for these countries and because more people are seeking refuge/debt settlement they need dollars which will only increase the pain in a positive feedback loop. Strong dollar good for USA because they can’t basically print as much as they want and pass on the inflation to other countries desperate for dollars. And they will print because they don’t want a strong dollar as it’s harmful globally
    • LG
      Lisa G.
      13 May 2020 @ 18:33
      My understanding is there is $12T in foreign dollar-denominated debt. As the USD rises relative to the debtor nations' currencies, this makes those loans even more expensive.
  • JG
    John G.
    12 May 2020 @ 14:08
    Raoul stated he believes we are approaching the end of the hope phase of the bear market correction we are seeing. Besides a lot of gloom, which is accurate IMO, I would have liked to hear what could happen when the FED/Treasury (now one) print 10T to elevate asset prices as they like to do. Couldn't that extend the hope phase significantly?
    • SS
      Sami S.
      13 May 2020 @ 18:23
      Jubinflation
  • GK
    Gary K.
    13 May 2020 @ 17:16
    I try to stay away from hyperbole but this video was so full of useful and actionable information that I feel like it is the best video I have seen on Real Vision since the beginning of my membership years ago. The more of these the better.
  • KL
    Kai L.
    13 May 2020 @ 16:56
    What do you think about the CHF, as it is quite strong vs all currencies. Will the CHF hold its value also in a deflationary period or will it be dragged down by the EUR? (SNB still buys a lot of EUR to keep the CHF down)
  • SB
    Sergei B.
    13 May 2020 @ 12:14
    Fantastic video, Raoul! Thank you - I've learnt so much from Real Vision.
  • Ph
    Paul h.
    13 May 2020 @ 11:10
    RP. Your insights are great and suggestions will/need to be held in high regard. Paul Harvey
  • TC
    Tom C.
    13 May 2020 @ 08:34
    I think that for those considering precious metals stocks it will be important to consider where that company's assets are located - in what jurisdiction. I can fully see governments "nationalising/stealing" mines and assets, or setting "official gold price in their currency". Rule of law and ideology of the government will be very important in considering the risk exposure of particular companies (even the big boys like Barrick or Newmont).
  • TC
    Tom C.
    13 May 2020 @ 08:29
    What might be the best way to trade the negative bond yield scenario?
  • RJ
    Robert J.
    13 May 2020 @ 07:59
    Raoul, much appreciated. I, and I'd imagine others, would love to see a "Devil's Advocate" response piece to this episode presenting the most compelling counter-arguments to the high-conviction views stated. This would evidence unprecedented intellectual humility and allow us all to form further nuances of our frameworks/beliefs in this pivotal moment.
  • BW
    Bachesha W.
    13 May 2020 @ 04:45
    God bless you Raoul. Your insight will save so many people from this bloody recession. Thank you..
  • SS
    Sameer S.
    13 May 2020 @ 00:10
    Thanks Raoul- amazing as always. What are your thoughts on gold stocks (not etfs but the miners) if gold explodes BUT equities in general correct? Does the market take gold stocks with it or are they relatively safe to remain in while this plays out? (I’m 25% gold and silver stocks, 25% physical, 25% bitcoin, 25% CAD - about to move that into USD after watching this!)
    • LM
      Luke M.
      13 May 2020 @ 04:24
      I'm currently in a very similar allocation with my 25% AUD sitting in USD waiting for this potential solvency/deflationary event to occur and if it does I'll load up on some more tech and gold/uranium miners. I doubt the gold miners will be dragged down as much in the next leg down as the next leg would be more of a ''fundamental'' down where only the insolvent businesses and corporations will go bust.
  • BS
    Bill S.
    12 May 2020 @ 21:52
    Great summary - starting to give Hedgeye a run for it in the macro space.
    • GL
      Glen L.
      13 May 2020 @ 04:24
      Starting? I love Hedgeye, but hasn't Raoul and Realvision been doing it longer?
  • PG
    Paco G.
    12 May 2020 @ 03:20
    FNV,NEW,GOLD,AEM,KL are the group of equities i chose to express my position in Gold. Looking at those companies they have a total market cap of about $130B hell that is about the market cap of BTC! Once people catch on to the performance of this sector all those equity restrained portfolios will lift these stocks. As one of the earlier poster highlighted, the performance of Homestakes & Dome during the depression was dramatic. I see it rhyming with the past or possibly repeating it ....
    • DO
      Daniel O.
      13 May 2020 @ 04:23
      FNV, Gold and New have too much exposure to non North American jurisdictions. I agree with Marin Katusa on the importance of having miners with positive dollar swap line countries. In other words, these 3 miners you selected are riskier than you may think! Check out the Katusa research on the dollar swap lines.
  • KK
    KeQiu K.
    11 May 2020 @ 14:42
    GBTC allow accredited investors to invest in their BTC/ETH fund at NAV, but locked up for 6 months. Their OTC product for retail investors almost always trades at a premium to NAV during bull runs. Assuming long term bullish on BTC (holding period >1 year), isn't it best for accredited investors to invest at least a partial portion in GBTC at NAV to essentially harvest the premium over a 6 months period and later sell on the OTC market at a huge premium? Thanks for any feedback.
    • gh
      g h.
      13 May 2020 @ 03:59
      I didn’t know that, and it’s an excellent suggestion. The risk you run is that if/when a true BTC ETF launches, or any similar vehicle more liquid than GBTC, the premium will vanish, and a discount may appear instead. Allied to the small but real possibility of GBTC being robbed/hacked and failing. But you’re still long BTC, which is not a terrible place to be.
  • DB
    David B.
    12 May 2020 @ 13:56
    Raoul— Some of my holdings are in levered ETFs (not ETNs), including TMF (TLTx3) and UGLD (GLDx3). I know they may be at risk of failing during an insolvency. But I'm thinking there would be time to get out if the market starts falling and switch to unlevered versions. Or am I wrong?
    • JG
      John G.
      12 May 2020 @ 14:10
      You don't want to hold these very long. The costs are high. These are short term trading vehicles.
    • TY
      Tony Y.
      13 May 2020 @ 02:32
      Why not use a call option
  • AB
    Aditya B.
    12 May 2020 @ 17:02
    And now the politicians are advocating a payment of $2000/Mo for every american "Untill employemnt is at pre covid elevels" . Ha ha ha. Please consider that whatever we thought was impossible in the past , has been done. Fed buying junk, free money to all, direct lending to main street, and bail out of hedge funds. So we cant dismiss Universal Basic income. What stocks do well and what stocks go bust in this senario? That is something we need to be prepared for. Looks like AMZN going to be winner in that situation?
    • JO
      JOHN O.
      13 May 2020 @ 02:08
      Agree. $2,000/Mo isn't going to get people out supporting most businesses. They will go belly up as Raoul suggests. Online, sheltering and some basic necessity suppliers will survive. The rest will be in a world of hurt for some time to come.
  • JH
    John H.
    11 May 2020 @ 21:26
    Opening this request to the community. I am anxious to learn more about investing in bitcoin. However, am leery of all the pitfalls, some of which are detailed below. Would appreciate any advice on the best resources to learn the ABCs of the process. Thanks.
    • RK
      Ron K.
      11 May 2020 @ 22:06
      Buy a little bit on Gemini app. One you buy a little, you will want to learn more and the more you learn, the more you will buy. Seek out key people on Twitter and follow them and also there are great podcasts out there for you to discover. Before you know it, you will have your Bitcoin off the exchanges and in your own cold wallet and maybe you will be running your own Bitcoin node to support the Bitcoin network. Don’t waste your energy with the alternative coins. Bitcoin is the digital gold.
    • ZT
      Zach T.
      12 May 2020 @ 01:20
      Cash app is probably the easiest way to buy bitcoin, Coinbase is a pretty nice/simple exchange to start with after that if you want to expand.
    • JB
      James B.
      12 May 2020 @ 01:24
      I find Square's Cash App to be the easiest way to buy BTC. That's what I would recommend to a beginner.
    • SC
      Salem C.
      12 May 2020 @ 08:31
      Don't buy anything until you do your research. I am a long time Bitcoin investor and a believer in Bitcoin. The best resource about Bitcoin and crypto, in general, is a YouTube channel called DataDash by Nicholas Merten. He has tons of "how-to" videos and does daily updates on Bitcoin, crypto and their relations to broader markets. There are plenty of exchanges that allow you to buy Bitcoin with USD/EUR/GBP and a few other currencies. I use Bitstamp, but as mentioned below there are several good exchanges focused on American citizens like Coinbase, Gemini, Robinhood or Square.
    • JH
      John H.
      13 May 2020 @ 02:00
      Thank you all for your help. Much appreciated!
  • MS
    Michael S.
    13 May 2020 @ 01:28
    Raoul won’t bitcoin take a hit during the near term deflationary period?
  • nw
    nathan w.
    13 May 2020 @ 01:18
    South Africa my friend. Born in Durban. Don't sweat it, SO many people have made the "South America" mistake. God Bless. You guys do amazing work and it's lovely to hear others who speak about these issues and understand it like I do.
  • CB
    Clinton B.
    12 May 2020 @ 23:45
    👌🏽 as always
  • MR
    MARK R.
    12 May 2020 @ 23:14
    Legend !
  • SS
    Stephen S.
    12 May 2020 @ 22:10
    I’ve got probably 60% of my 401ks and IRAs in Treasuries at this point. Is this nuts? There aren’t always great options in these vehicles and it seemed like the best bet available?
  • PD
    Peter D.
    11 May 2020 @ 22:19
    Raoul : at 23:02 you peg 10 yr. rates at .6% and inflation at -3%. That suggests a 3.3% real rate (not 2.4%).
    • PD
      Peter D.
      11 May 2020 @ 22:19
      Sorry ... 3.6% real rates ....
    • PD
      Peter D.
      12 May 2020 @ 21:15
      It would be unseemly to let that nitpicking stand alone. This was a terrific presentation (the votes tell the story) as has been all your recent coverage .
  • MJ
    Michel J.
    12 May 2020 @ 21:13
    Hi Raoul, you mentioned a negative bias towards cable, any specific levels you anticipate GBP/USD to hit, like you do for the EUR/USD? Was keeping cash mostly in GBP after Brexit, hoping for a return to 1.5..never really got there... now at 1.24, is it closer to 1.1 or 1.4...this is the question..
  • JR
    John R.
    12 May 2020 @ 20:32
    Great discussion, I love my real vision subscription. Where do you safely keep cash?
  • EG
    Enrique G.
    12 May 2020 @ 20:18
    blown away by the information itself but also how it is delivered . thank you!
  • MF
    Maryam F.
    12 May 2020 @ 19:20
    Fantastic analysis, thanks Raoul. Regarding physical gold and no body having a claim on it, a president could technically sign an executive order to outlaw gold ownership. It’s happened before, unlikely but technically possible..
  • JG
    John G.
    12 May 2020 @ 18:03
    It’s videos like this that make the realvision subscription cost an absolute steal. Thank you Raoul, excited for the next few weeks’ content!
  • AC
    Andree C.
    12 May 2020 @ 17:45
    Has me thinking about the petrodollar and the volatility in gulf state currencies as the USD increases.
  • DS
    David S.
    11 May 2020 @ 21:10
    The Fed can buy Ford's debt to get Ford out of a solvency problem. Likewise, for other US corporations that have a lot of US jobs and lobbyists. DLS
    • RM
      Richard M.
      12 May 2020 @ 15:37
      David, just curious, but I thought when the FED buys fallen angel bonds they are buying them on the open market, i.e. from other bond holders not from Ford directly. So Ford won't be helped at all by this action, only the bag holder bond holder (the .01% again) gets relief. Thoughts? [always enjoy reading your comments on the board by the way!]
    • DS
      David S.
      12 May 2020 @ 16:44
      Very good point. I expect Ford and others to be bailed out by the government as essential. This puts Ford’s bonds in good hands to delay any forced bankruptcy proceedings until the government is ready and possibly any more downgrades. Only time will tell what the US government will end up buying. DLS
  • BT
    Ben T.
    11 May 2020 @ 09:43
    Hi Raoul, I understand the disadvantages of paper Gold vs. Physical but wondered what your views were on the recently launched Gold ETF by the Royal Mint (RMAU) ? Physically backed, allocated Gold held by the Royal Mint. An ETF that is redeemable on demand for cash or your physical gold with no Bank custodian risk. 22bps annual management fee. For those that are struggling to invest in the physical is this as safe an alternative as is available on the derivatives side? Many thanks
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      11 May 2020 @ 10:53
      Not really my expertise. I own physical. But for trading, sounds fine but out of my expertise as I said.
    • EO
      Elena O.
      11 May 2020 @ 13:22
      Royal Mint? UK? Or which market? I personally stay away from GLD and I bought physical last year in anticipation of this printing stage...just did not realise we r going into deflation first...
    • BT
      Ben T.
      11 May 2020 @ 15:23
      Listed in UK and Europe. To me the problem with Gold ETFs has always been counterparty risk (ETF issuer), custody risk (HSBC and JPM custody most physical Gold ETFs) and liquidity risk of not finding a buyer in times of market stress (market makers step away). I feel this as good as solves for those as you are buying and giving custody to Her Majesty's Royal Mint so no Banks involved. You have allocated bars in vault (so it's tangible Gold you own with no further claims on it) and you can turn up on demand to redeem the ETFs and take physical delivery at any point directly from the vault.
    • EO
      Elena O.
      11 May 2020 @ 16:30
      one issue - this assumes banks like HSBC or COMEX/LBMA are not using Royal Mint to loan themselves physical gold. I have read some reports from Bullion Star in Singapore that RM is leasing some bars to the banks. I think physical in your own vault or gold miners is still a better option.
    • BT
      Ben T.
      12 May 2020 @ 15:59
      Just to close the loop on this. The bars are allocated Gold and the bar numbers allocated are printed every day on the Royal Mint website. They are bankruptcy remote even if the Royal Mint were to default and there is no lending of this inventory. Feels about as safe as is out there for an ETF anyway.
  • RM
    Russell M.
    11 May 2020 @ 20:43
    Seems to me that if you need physical gold vs PHYS etf, you will have social anarchy and bigger problems.
    • JO
      Johnny O.
      12 May 2020 @ 15:50
      You think that can't happen? But before we get to a zombie apocalypse and we're hunkering in caves (that's not this crash; it's the next one), there are intermediate failures that could affect ETFs. There are already issues between the physical and paper pricing, and between locations. ETFs can change their rules. Markets can temporarily suspend trading. Brokers at which you hold positions can go phut in times of deep distress. New taxes and capital controls can be applied. Funds may suddenly be unable to move easily between you in one country and your brokerage in another. Nothing beats holding some in your hand.
  • EN
    Elizabeth N.
    12 May 2020 @ 06:07
    Can anyone chime in on how retail investors can invest in USD/EM currency trade pairs? The volume on futures contracts like BRL/USD and KRW/USD is tiny and both of my futures account brokers said they don’t allow trading. I set up a FX Account with Oanda, but the fees are pretty outrageous.
    • MC
      Marc C.
      12 May 2020 @ 07:01
      For those outside of US some cryptocurrency exchanges allow some access to FX trading. I.e.,https://blog.kraken.com/post/4200/eur-gbp-usd-and-more-fx-trading-is-going-live-on-kraken/
    • cr
      colm r.
      12 May 2020 @ 07:56
      I do all my FX trading on IG index. All of the financial spread trading firms offer good charting packages and tight spreads although they will be a little wider for EM FX pairs with higher margin requirements. You can decide what value you want to trade on a pip so you can manage risk and sizing quite effectively.
    • EN
      Elizabeth N.
      12 May 2020 @ 15:25
      Thank you both for the replies.
  • JB
    Josh B.
    12 May 2020 @ 15:11
    How reinforcing (degree of certainty of outcome) is the Core CPI crash today (biggest since records in 1961) to the overall concepts here?
  • VM
    Vix M.
    12 May 2020 @ 14:27
    In the UK, Rishi Sunak (the Chancellor) has just extended the furlough scheme until the end of October. There'd be a tsunami of redundancies at the end of June if they'd let it stop then. But shows how low they're thinking this will go on for. And it's only May.
  • JM
    James M.
    11 May 2020 @ 10:54
    In the event of an insolvency related SPX crash, why wouldn't gold & bitcoin also crash at the same time, as happened in March? Margin calls triggered by the crash will result in people having to liquidate their most liquid assets & that will include gold & bitcoin. Unless it is a slow grind down in stocks, I struggle to see a Short term scenario where the direction of the stock market, gold & bitcoin diverge.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      11 May 2020 @ 10:57
      Because they HAVE to discount more printing ahead and thus will look through it. Deflation = MOAR printing = higher gold, not lower. Common misperception, in my view.
    • JM
      James M.
      11 May 2020 @ 11:01
      I appreciate the reply Raoul. But wouldn't that suggest gold & bitcoin rebound quicker from a stock market crash rather than that they hold up during it. Margin calls don't discriminate, you need to liquidate assets to pay it, and that will be your most liquid assets.....
    • AK
      Ado K.
      11 May 2020 @ 12:00
      Margin calls may not discriminate but the buyers will. People will not buy a currency that is being printed like there is no tomorrow, they will buy Bitcoin. The margin calls will in my humble opinion seem irrelevant in comparison to the inflow of capital.
    • DP
      Duane P.
      11 May 2020 @ 20:03
      Like Raoul said, "Gold has no creditors." In a mass wave of insolvency, assets with no default probability are king.
    • WG
      Wade G.
      12 May 2020 @ 06:01
      JM, I have one suggestion (related to gold/miners; I don't really understand how bitcoin trades--seems more risk-on than risk-off to me). For many folks, real rates are key variable for gold: their direction perhaps more important than their level. Lots of proxies for real rates but I like the 10 Year TIPS market: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII10 Anyway, if u remind yourself what gold (/gc) and miners (gdx) did in 08, and then look at the real yields in the link, you'll see that the sector was constructive until real rates turned up in Mar 08, and then gold/miners sold off. They bottomed (well before the market, in Oct) when real rates turned back down. If u look at the very brief episode in March this year, the selloff in gold/miners perfectly corresponded to that spike in real rates. Its almost uncanny. Now if I were only smart enough to be able to foresee the spike in real rates, or predict their turn back down, I think I could get somewhere. My guess and hope is that Raoul's judgment above is basically right... it makes sense to me: perhaps in 08 there were doubts about policy (willingness; boldness), and such doubts have been removed now, and so investors will maintain a firm bid. (Btw, if u listen to them debate, Luke Groman suggests u must stay invested, while Brent Johnson seems to suggest u may get better prices in a pull back). Bottom line for me: I'm not sure precisely how real rates spiked so severely in March 2020, but I presume the Fed viewed it as unfortunate, and further, that they will do anything they need to do, to keep real rates from getting out of hand for any length of time. We're talking treasuries here; funding the government. I'm carrying nearly my full allocation of gold exposure now, assuming I won't get a fire sale and that the market won't shake me out of my position. If any body has any further ideas related to these issues, I'd love to read them.
    • JM
      James M.
      12 May 2020 @ 13:42
      Wade, I agree real rates matter and that is my concern. With deflation coming/here real rates are going to spike again (which is the reason Raoul believes bond rates will need to go negative - to counteract this spike). If that is the case gold/miners will drop on the spike (however briefly) before the Fed cranks the printer up again. This is the disconnect for me on what Raoul is saying, I agree with him that more printing will cause gold & miners to rise but it feels like the thesis jumps ahead to the end game and misses the step in the middle imho.
  • MC
    Mathieu C.
    12 May 2020 @ 13:29
    Hey Raoul, Thanks for sharing. I admire your strong self control... Keeping 25% on the side... maybe you're simply waiting for that double bottom.... Great content mate.
  • mi
    mitchell i.
    12 May 2020 @ 13:21
    thank you Raoul
  • JT
    John T.
    12 May 2020 @ 04:19
    Hi Raoul, do you think the S&P500 will ever retest the March lows?
    • DT
      David T.
      12 May 2020 @ 12:32
      U didn't listen?
  • GM
    Guillermo M.
    12 May 2020 @ 11:40
    Could an even more brutal liquidity expansion, combined with an ulterior debt jubilee, be the "solution" central banks and governments are seeking? Would it be posssible without the complete nationalization ot the economies?
    • GM
      Guillermo M.
      12 May 2020 @ 11:48
      Excuse me; what I wanted to say is that in that scenario, the price manipulation (even in the treasury bond market) could be very difficult to manage (if possible).
  • pt
    paul t.
    12 May 2020 @ 11:33
    The Don!
  • BT
    Brian T.
    11 May 2020 @ 09:59
    Dear Raoul- thanks again!! Your perspective is always insightful and well considered!! Just a few easy questions for you to help the less advanced members of the 'vision'. 1. Is GBTC a reasonable way to track bitcoin- or too expensive relatively speaking? 2. Would you consider UUP when yields flash negative? OR just wait it out in cash? 3. Where can someone learn more about deflation-how to invest in such an environment? - it seems that ALL asset values including gold and btc, real estate, (?equities) may all lose value in such a world. 4. Do you agree that the current 'powers' will do 'whatever it takes' at least until the election in November?- Like change the Federal Reserve ACT- to allow MMT and Fed purchases rather than just loans to keep things moving? ONCE again, I truly appreciate your perspective and understanding of the financial world !!! A Hui Hou, BT
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      11 May 2020 @ 10:56
      1. Yes but its a premium. Try Pantera's fund maybe? 2. I am long dollars vs lots of currencies already. 3. Read JK Galbraiths - The Great Crash of '29 and Lords of Finance and Richard Koo's Balance Sheet Recession. The last debt deflation was 1930 to 1933. 4. They have been doing whatever it takes for a decade now. They will get more extreme and thus gold and bitcoin will go up, as will the dollar. Equities? Who knows. I avoid them for now.
    • VD
      Vincent D.
      11 May 2020 @ 11:40
      Raoul Would appreciate your thoughts on GBTC also. Just looking to have a small l/t holding of bitcoin Vincent
    • DL
      Dan L.
      11 May 2020 @ 13:38
      GBTC is an indirect claim on BTC. As Raoul points out in the video, it is best to actually take possession in this climate. This is much easier to do for BTC than it is for gold. (There is a later comment thread here concerning this.)
    • AA
      Anthony A.
      11 May 2020 @ 17:42
      As a retail investor, I never understand why would I buy GBTC instead of buying BTC directly and storing it into a Hardware wallet. It's like buying GLD vs physical gold - except that BTC is very liquid in itself. Can anyone explain what makes GBTC superior despite the premium & counterparty risk?
    • WM
      Wolfgang M.
      12 May 2020 @ 11:29
      Holding BTC directly has nearly only upsides vs. GBTC. Only GBTC upside: you can easily buy & hold it without having to learn about how to store and use BTC. GBTC faces several problems though: Premium to NAV (currently around 30%!) could swing around wildly, influencing your returns on an already very volatile asset even more. And if a normal bitcoin ETF gets approved that easily can create & redeem shares (which GBTC can't, that's why it has such a big premium in the first place), that premium will disappear in an instant, leading to certain losses. Though there's currently no potential ETF on the horizont within the next months.
  • WM
    Will M.
    11 May 2020 @ 16:43
    Excellent follow up to previous narrative from Raoul. I like the consistent explanations and deepening of the thesis. More actual trade guidance to follow I hope. Great video and I am working toward approximating the recommendations on BTC this week (though going nowhere near 25% for BTC, I am close now to 25% gold metal / miners & 25% cash).
    • JH
      Jesse H.
      11 May 2020 @ 17:01
      Yeah - loved this. But wow - 25% BTC, Raoul has some serious “cojones” as they say in Latin America. A lot of guts. Guess he feels like he really understands the space, and he may be able to lose that much and be OK. My risk tolerance on BTC is much, much lower.
    • LK
      Lauri K.
      11 May 2020 @ 19:33
      Raoul probably bought at a lower level, let's say averaging around $4000, so the value in dollar terms has already doubled. Also, what are the true possibilities of Bitcoin going to zero? It has already survived three horrific bear markets and the macro environment has never looked brighter for it. I see it the same way, as a very cheap call option to a turmoil in FX markets. Nothing really makes better sense for Raoul's thesis and I think the biggest problem Bitcoin is facing right now is the availability for the institutions and pension portfolios.
    • GC
      Gift C.
      12 May 2020 @ 03:49
      This is of his liquid wealth. Someone else mentioned that he stated in another video his BTC holding was 2 to 3 % so he's 20 to 15% liquid. I believe he has a decent junk of real estate.
    • FL
      First L.
      12 May 2020 @ 11:04
      The thing is: if you're in the crypto sphere, you really can't see how BTC could ever lose any value over the long term. I don't think there's a convincing case for that to happen. I haven't heard of one
  • TF
    Thomas F.
    12 May 2020 @ 11:01
    RCA and other tech names lead the 1929 rally - did they also stay strong (like todays tech) during the big bear rally? When did they tip over?
    • TF
      Thomas F.
      12 May 2020 @ 11:03
      Sorry, meant during the bounce. It seems that they´ll go down last....
  • BN
    Benjamin N.
    11 May 2020 @ 16:45
    How would you position yourself for the restructuring of the Euro as .8 on the dollar? Would you do this now or once certain signals are more obvious? (Q open to anyone on the section) Thanks!
    • WS
      Winslow S.
      11 May 2020 @ 17:35
      I bought EUR $1 Dec 2020 puts. Happy with that timeline
    • EO
      Elena O.
      12 May 2020 @ 10:58
      checked out the put options for Dec and for some reason Saxo wants margin....hm...
  • OH
    Oscar H.
    12 May 2020 @ 04:59
    The Unfolding: 8th April, market has been rallying for a fortnight since march 23rd - "we are in the liquidation phase now" What's Next: 11th May: "The Liquidation phase ended in March" Easy to be right with a road map when you predict things moving in both directions (down then up then down) and then rewrite history as to which leg we are in.
    • JS
      Jon S.
      12 May 2020 @ 10:58
      Good golly man. Seriously, are you criticizing a roadmap about the future for exact timelines.
  • MH
    Michael H. | Contributor
    11 May 2020 @ 18:20
    I’m no longer in this camp, but brilliantly lucid and fantastically logical spin through markets. Makes me want to ponder again!
    • AB
      ANDRE B.
      11 May 2020 @ 18:21
      Which camp are you in now?
    • DF
      David F.
      11 May 2020 @ 22:30
      If only markets were logical.
    • sb
      steven b.
      12 May 2020 @ 10:26
      Hi Michael, could you comment on your thoughts?
  • ND
    Nitul D.
    12 May 2020 @ 09:58
    Raoul, how do we interpret the T-Note and T-Bond futures open interest and options put OI and call OI, because we can get some idea or view on that what the bond market is thinking 3 months, 6 months, 1 year from now. Second, another way of looking at the "solvency event" you argue about, is to look at credit spreads (both US, Europe, EM) and may be the default swap market (and derivatives of CDS market) to understand how participants are pricing in "solvency event", if any. Because I don't have Bloomberg/Reuters, i myself is unable to look out for sophisticated interpretation of these curves out there. The idea is to look out for leading indicators in market pricing (which i believe is technically superior than charts and narratives)
  • VG
    Viktor G.
    12 May 2020 @ 09:51
    Thanks very much Raoul and RV team! Very valuable. One thing I have noticed in the past and also in light when there are theories that BTC could be the next USD for the world, these two are competitors and hence I expect the BTC not to go up a lot while the USD is getting higher. Only when the USD tops BTC has the cards on the hand to fly higher.
  • CB
    Cliff B.
    12 May 2020 @ 09:44
    Thank you Raoul
  • BG
    Borja G.
    12 May 2020 @ 09:44
    Raoul, you really are an inspiration to me, thanks a lot for sharing your hard work. I have some questions about how to play this. 1. What 5y bond's price corresponds to a -2%? 2. Which expiration are you choosing for the options on the 5y bonds? 3. I trade options regularly on the stock market, but I don't follow the eurusd and 5y bond futures. Is it safe to play this scenarios with long term options, say 1-2 years to expiration? Or will the contango kill the trade if it happens too soon? 4. What underlying can I use to play the break in the usdcny with options? IB doesn't have options on usdcny if I'm not wrong
  • DJ
    Dalibor J.
    12 May 2020 @ 09:33
    Fantastic!
  • TM
    Turlan M.
    12 May 2020 @ 09:25
    Always a pleasure to listen to Raoul. Very smart guy and a nice person. Btw overlapping gold to trade weighted USD shows a cup and handle for gold as well (yet to breakout).
  • KF
    Karen F.
    11 May 2020 @ 15:27
    Can anyone tell me more about the (option) bond trade Raoul is talking about? Thnx.
    • gb
      garrett b.
      11 May 2020 @ 15:37
      Read A Peek into the Future on RV
    • KF
      Karen F.
      11 May 2020 @ 15:57
      Thanks.... unfortunately that's reserved for Pro-members ;-)
    • MO
      Matthew O.
      11 May 2020 @ 16:47
      Would be good if they could make the reports pay-per-use so you can source what information you need rather than committing to the full membership which maybe outside of most retail investors budgets.
    • IO
      Igor O.
      11 May 2020 @ 17:04
      It's Eurodollar calls.
    • KF
      Karen F.
      12 May 2020 @ 09:00
      No, not the GE calls. He was talking about the five-year bonds. Maybe he meant the options on the ZF futures (5 Year US Treasury Note)?
  • KF
    Karen F.
    11 May 2020 @ 12:51
    Interesting again Raoul. Question: how to own physical gold? Can't put gold on a ledger :-) You still remain dependent on vaults somewhere in the world, how do you know for sure that nobody has a claim on it?
    • KB
      Karl B.
      11 May 2020 @ 14:35
      You should be able to store at home, coins or bars if you want to go down that route
    • SM
      Steven M.
      11 May 2020 @ 15:23
      Goldmoney lets you buy on their site and store in their vault. There's also PAXG - ownership of your physical gold via an Ethereum ERC20 token (vault in Switzerland)
    • AA
      Anthony A.
      11 May 2020 @ 17:46
      I don't honestly see what makes https://www.paxos.com/paxgold/ better than GLD, as both introduces counterparty risk.
    • KF
      Karen F.
      12 May 2020 @ 08:51
      Thanks everyone for the suggestions!
  • RS
    Robert S.
    12 May 2020 @ 03:11
    I often hear advice of don't buy the paper goods/ETFs; buy the real stuff. A futures contract is physically settled, therefore more real than paper?
    • MT
      Mike T.
      12 May 2020 @ 08:47
      a futures contract is physically settled?? In theory yes, in practice never as Brokers will close out clients *long* /GC positions before expiry date if they believe there's a risk that might occur. No Broker wants their clients ending up with obligations to take delivery and a big truck turning up at the doorstep. Always remember it's those that are *short* /GC contract that are able to initiate delivery not the *longs*.
  • TN
    Tim N.
    12 May 2020 @ 02:20
    Policy makers and central banks want to avoid deflation possibly at any cost. Recently there was some sabre rattling from the USA with respect to Iran. I think the chances of conflict have increase and this could actually cause an oil shock and rising inflation (stagflation). Just saying that in these desperate times events can happen rapidly out of left field to change the dynamics. I am looking at investing in oil companies (which are now down from previous highs) as a hedge. What do others think of this trade?
    • cr
      colm r.
      12 May 2020 @ 08:34
      I am starting to allocate into UK oil majors and miners (BP, Shell (after div announcement), Glencore, BHP). Was 80% in cash from Oct 19, 20% gold from 2014. I agree totally with Raoul's $ thesis and further $ strength very likely over next 3-6 months. However at some point we are going to get a much weaker $, probably only after the FED take FF's negative which seems inevitable to get real $ rates down and steepen the yield curve. There is no other way out of this and the result of this huge debt deflation and resulting policy response has to be a much weaker $ eventually. If you are a longer term value investor you have to be looking at some exposure to commodity producers at these current levels. I differ from Raoul in that I believe zero or negative nominal rates will be relatively supportive for US equities over the next 1-2 years. CB's will keep nominal rates too low as $ starts to fall and velocity of money picks up from these ultra low levels and they won't be able to control the reflation. The absolute killer for pretty much all financial assets will ultimately be fiat weakness and eventually much higher nominal rates that will be necessary to defend them. So equities a good inflation hedge until higher rates kills them with cyclicals and physical producers outperforming in the reflationary stage before the whole system collapses on itself in one giant shitshow.
    • cr
      colm r.
      12 May 2020 @ 08:44
      would also add that if we do start to see a substantial $ weakening you should look at EM physical producers and general indices. I know Raoul v keen on India longer term..I would add Mexico and Brasil also.
  • OM
    OL M.
    12 May 2020 @ 08:24
    Hello Regarding USD outperformance trade relative to other DM currencies like EUR ang JPY were mentioned. Generally I agree with the concept. But have 1 risk question. USD services considerable part of international trade and financial transactions flow already. How it might perform in circumstance of global protectionism as dollar already has massive role. is it going to increase or opposite?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      12 May 2020 @ 08:33
      Initially, that exacerbates the dollar shortage...
  • JB
    Jeff B.
    11 May 2020 @ 22:37
    Raoul, not a question, and I realize this is out of your wheelhouse. But you've hinted at big picture effects beyond economics before. Probably not the right place, but I wonder what you worry about socially and politically? The economic pressures you see seemingly could devolve the fabric of society further. I wonder if this is anything you think about? I sure do. Fantastic video. Thank you.
    • SC
      Salem C.
      12 May 2020 @ 08:12
      Check out Neil Howe's book "The 4th Turning" or look him up on YouTube. RP is a big fan of Neil's work on the demographic and social cycle.
  • MS
    Michael S.
    12 May 2020 @ 07:55
    Absolutely priceless information, thank you so much for sharing your thoughts on this Raoul!!!
  • Ja
    Jillian a.
    11 May 2020 @ 22:10
    Technically speaking it looks as though the bond rates of both the 10YR and 5YR treasuries are extremely oversold and blew through their multi year channels, indicating bond prices overbought. On the daily basis the yields look to be a wedged pattern and putting in reversals upwards. TLT is looking bearish as well. I understand your macro outlook, however the technicals do not look to be following along. https://www.tradingview.com/x/6SfefdoK/
    • DB
      David B.
      12 May 2020 @ 02:20
      Fundamentals trump technicals.
    • AO
      Abraham O.
      12 May 2020 @ 07:29
      Your read of the technicals seem rather subjective (most technical analysis is), but also with a shorter timeframe. Look at the bigger timeframe... we're intermediate overbought sure, but we're in a MASSIVE multi-year uptrend in bonds (or downtrend if you're talking about the yield). If anything, wait until we're at oversold levels, watch how they react at the support levels - and then jump in. If you want to play the big time frames, you gotta be patient to catch 'em.
  • J
    JP .
    11 May 2020 @ 18:37