If this is the trend (which I agree), and this is going to be accelerated due to WFH, then I think the secondary cities that will benefit the most aren't going to be the ones like Dallas/Houston where there is massive sprawl, lots of concrete, lackluster culture and sucky weather, but cities that have more exposure to nature, culture, or nice weather. So cities like Austin, Nashville, Colorado Springs, etc. WFH means you can live in the city you like. No one lives in Houston because they like it.

The graph is based on Census data which is every 10 years. So there will not be any new data until this year...10 years later. I would contend though that the new data will show a resumption of that trend. However, I personally know people moving from NYC forever, however half of those people are simply moving to smaller cities in different regions of the USA.

I'd take the other side of your trade over the medium to longterm. Even pandemics don't change human nature. To paraphrase Samuel Johnson "when a man is tired of the city, he is tired of life"

The census definition of urban includes Urbanized Areas of over 50,000 and Urban Clusters of at least 2,500. The decades long urbanization trend will likely continue, BUT within that overall trend, there is clear movement from larger mega cities to smaller Urbanized Areas and even Urban Clusters. This trend was noted in the 2013 book America 3.0, and the Covid-19 pandemic, within the context of a networked society, is likely to accelerate this trend.

Living in suburbs gets old fast? Like everything else, it depends on your lifestyle. Living in smaller towns is awesome. I can't stand large city life. Gave it up years ago.

I’m not so sure. Suburbs, esp in North Texas, have great dining, a multitude of outdoor activities, pool, parks, clubs of all types. There’s also much lower crime, stable government, lower taxes, and lower overall cost of living. Very high quality of life and value for the money. And then there’s WFH. If Covid was a one month affair, life would have quickly bounced back. But it didn’t and workers had time to build new habits for productivity. Many would take a pay cut to skip the commute entirely. Unless forced to they will not return to office life anytime soon, or at least not 5 days a week. My clients with office space are actively looking to reduce office footprint (mostly in the cities) and negotiate lower rents, even if it means leaving the city. So people might choose to remain living in cities, but it won’t be for easy access to work necessarily. But let’s be optimistic for a moment... say cities take a 10% hit to tax receipts. The results would be near catastrophic. Cities are already seriously strapped on fixed costs such as under-funded pensions, bond interest payments, and other liabilities. The cuts to parks, maintenance, beautification projects, etc. would be a blight on the city. Add in “defund the police” and the results might get ugly. No, cities aren’t going to die but they will be VERY sick for awhile. To think that will not eventually manifest in significantly discounted prices would be just too hopeful, I think.

Liam F. - Yes, agreed. Hence my comment around if you're an introvert (i.e. a "homebody"), living in the suburbs or rural communities is feasible...