Comments
Transcript
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KPGood discussion. I think the trend won’t be city->suburb but big city to secondary city. The big game changers are work from home and taxes which will only go against cities like NY and CHI for a while. As a professional in my mid 30s growing up in the NY area anecdotally 30/50 of my friends, family, cousins in the 30s and 40s have all moved to places like Dallas, Houston, Austin, Nashville etc.
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DTOne more reason why people are moving out of big cities is that, the companies are moving out to smaller urban areas and cities. So, jobs are moving out too.
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SMI'm leaving the city FOREVER. If you like to pay higher taxes, riots, police giving tickets for nothing...you can stay in LA ;-) I don't think it's a temporary factor. My sister is doing the same (and we don't really talk to each other). Your graph on the U.S. Rural and urban population is 10 YEARS OLD!!! Nothing is linear in real life. You can't say that because the trend WAS up that it will stay up forever and never turn down (unless you're a Tesla shareholder!!)
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CSI like this guy but People can only pay their rent just fine with never ending government transfer payments. No one will feel bad for landlords. Even if money printer go brr, the taxes hikes on property owners who cannot hide their wealth in dark pools and the Cayman Islands will be brutal. I am glad I only own one property.
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ggI had a patient/client today 77years old, looking to sell up and buy a house with his daughter and son in law who is also selling up so togther they buy a larger home with an annex for the grandparents. Problem is, whenever they went to view one an offer had already been put in ( we are talking suburbs). His conclusion, they are not the only ones doing this as larger families battle it out for bigger homes in the suburbs. Anyway thought it was interesting :)
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PGGrateful to hear Mr. Halaris' thoughts and observations on real estate - someone who does this 24/7 Mass exodus from the urban cores and cities....I don't think so...."reset" of leasing rates and industry standards on lease terms & conditions, etc... more likely in my humble opinion. Unless you're very introverted or enjoy outdoor activities year-round, living in the suburbs and rural communities will get old real fast...
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JPEnjoyed this perspective. I work in SoCal commercial real estate and it really is a mixed bag of bulls and confused skeptics. Every other broker I talk to seems to have a different outlook. I can confirm the large apartment projects tenants have surprisingly all paid their rent so far. I Really didn’t expect that.
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dwNick thanks for the thoughtful views, as always your thoughts on markets are honest and giving a range of possibilities which I appreciate. I think that we will have a bit of a shakeout in city residential, and your comments on commercial are prescient, more pain to come.
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RMHousing starts as % of population. Have never looked at market through that lens. Around the 7 minute mark left in video.
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RMWas in a Regal space recently and asked the question about usage. Receptionist said people had started coming back in the last couple of weeks though it was not busy while I was there. Do believe usage is picking up, but does it get back to 100%, hard to say.
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JNvery little discussion about opportunity costs of staying in cities today v opportunities costs of not as compared to yesteryear. Bad analysis. Today, very little opportunity or convenience costs of moving out of suburbs.
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MKHappy to see this guest return. He uses a lot of things like “hard to say, this is the big question” etc instead “I know I know here’s my 100% foolproof forecast.” He speaks like someone who manages a book, not someone who manages a newsletter.
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cgNot sure why there are so many downvotes. This guy seems very balanced in his explanations and gives a strong case for both sides. Unlike the Mohtashhami guy who was like "nothing to see here, everything is 100% fine".
Chapters
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What is happening in real estate right now?
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What does current asset pricing signal about investor sentiment surrounding real estate?
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What is your view on the "death of cities" narrative?
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How are the demographic forces that were present before COVID-19 being impacted by the pandemic?
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From Megacities to Smaller Cities
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Co-Working and Short-Term Rentals
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Real Estate Risk Appetite
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What is happening with rent collections?
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What is happening in the CMBS market?
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What is happening in the housing market?
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Key Takeaways