Infinity Phase 3: The Post-COVID Paradigm

Published on
July 14th, 2020
Duration
41 minutes


Infinity Phase 3: The Post-COVID Paradigm

The Expert View ·
Featuring Christophe Ollari

Published on: July 14th, 2020 • Duration: 41 minutes

We often categorize the epochs of finance as "post-XYZ" crisis as the changes that take place in market psychology, monetary policy, and politics upend our previously held truths, and experienced market participants have to learn the new rules of the game. Christophe Ollari, founder of Ollari Consulting, believes we are entering into a new post-COVID era, marked by different forms of monetary policy (ie., yield curve control or direct support of equity markets), suppressed bond market volatility, and an equity market that must act accordingly. Ollari also touches on the much-discussed "disconnect" between equities and the economy and argues that the lagging Russell 2000 index is a perfect example of why markets are neither disconnected from the facts nor pricing in a V-shaped recovery. Filmed on July 9, 2020.

Comments

Transcript

  • AA
    ALI A.
    21 July 2020 @ 07:32
    I think all guests need to use proper mics
  • GL
    Gene L.
    20 July 2020 @ 16:25
    I appreciate the content of the interview and the subtitles are very helpful. In fact, the subtitles allow me to toggle the speed between 1.25x to 2x depending on my pace of understanding. That said, can we try a little harder to make the subtitles more accurate... For instance I believe that at 19:37, he was saying "they (referring to the asset managers) haven't reengaged at all after the chaos of March. One reason being that the CROSS-ASSET correlation is extreme, so basically you CAN'T HAVE uncorrelated strategy when your CROSS-ASSET correlation is so high" .... and NOT: "they haven't reengaged at all after the chaos of march. One reason being that the cost-to [?] correlation is extreme, so basically your calls are uncorrelated strategy when your cost to [?] correlation is so high" ... The latter (i.e. RV's transcription) makes no sense to me at all - which reduces the usability of the transcript for one that has no time to watch the video in its entirety. In fact, erroneous transcription dilutes the key points the speaker is trying to get across and is a major distraction. I trust RV will continue to work hard at this. Otherwise, keep it up RV! Thanks again for great content always.
  • Jv
    Juri v.
    19 July 2020 @ 19:10
    Awesome! A pity that sound is so bad... also, subtitles very often just say the opposite of what he says, get a french native, s/he will get it right
  • Kv
    Kristian v.
    15 July 2020 @ 06:26
    The subtitled attempt to clarify what he’s saying, while potentially useful, is so full of misunderstandings and ? as to render it distracting. For those used to hearing ppl with a thick French accent speak, what he’s saying is actually is quite discernible (I can certainly understand almost all of it). Ideally have a person who is a French speaker or at least familiar with thick French accents do the subtitles. Perhaps a French Canadian.
    • LR
      Louise R.
      19 July 2020 @ 01:43
      Agreed - Brit here who lived in France & would be more than happy to check interview & transcript next time he’s a guest. I understood all that he said & some of the translation was inaccurate & therefore contextually didn’t make sense.
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    17 July 2020 @ 11:35
    He’s one of the very very best. Can someone get him a decent mic? Would be no need for subtitles then. Thanks Christophe and RV.
  • MD
    Matt D.
    16 July 2020 @ 00:47
    Great chat and nice guest RV. Thanks. He brings some honesty and clarify to the markets at the moment - their "apparent" disconnect from macro is as he explains more rational than claimed. Thanks Christophe.
  • PU
    Peter U.
    14 July 2020 @ 13:07
    He is very smart macro guy and investor. However, his accent really makes it difficult to understand what he is saying. Please allow him to speak in his native tone and get an english translator!!!!!
    • ly
      lena y.
      14 July 2020 @ 16:54
      I have been using the CC, but I find "clicking on the transcript besides the comment" work even better. Listen and read together.
    • DS
      David S.
      14 July 2020 @ 20:01
      Mr. Ollari's English pronunciation is much better than my French pronunciation. DLS
    • JH
      Jon H.
      15 July 2020 @ 20:02
      His accent is unproblematic. Bad sound, that sometimes disappears is the problem.
  • JH
    Jon H.
    15 July 2020 @ 19:57
    A brilliant mind. I'm looking forward to the next interview with C.O.
  • NP
    Nathaniel P.
    15 July 2020 @ 17:02
    Brilliant guy. Need a better subtitle solution.
  • CB
    Chris B.
    14 July 2020 @ 20:07
    Thank you for having Christophe on RV. I found the update informative and did not have that big of a problem with the accent. But will say I might have if the subtitles were not included. One suggestion on the subtitles and transcript is to have Christophe edit after (I assume) an RV person creates as think this would improve the accuracy. For example, I was puzzled by the comment on 8% allocation to gold when in fact per the comments below it was 0.8%. I say this as I am pretty sure he would have picked up this order of magnitude difference!
    • SB
      Stephen B.
      14 July 2020 @ 20:25
      Also, i am not sure how the transcribe was prepared but the word Christophe clearly used several times was "rotation" (between asset classes or regions) not "audition". There is a big difference in the meaning of these two words. LOL.
    • AP
      Ananth P.
      15 July 2020 @ 13:20
      "Loss" was actually "lows" ... quite a few words were altered, changing meaning and context.
  • BA
    Bruce A.
    15 July 2020 @ 09:15
    I particularly appreciated the following: 'Markets ARE NOT pricing a V shaped recovery and markets ARE connected to the economy'.; and 'The Nasdaq outperforming the Russell2000 is proof of this'. Helps me see things in a slightly different way.
  • TG
    Terry G.
    15 July 2020 @ 06:11
    Refreshing! Much better than Raoul Pal's constant rehash of his old thesis.
  • EC
    Earl C.
    15 July 2020 @ 05:29
    This opened my eyes wider & i thank RV & Ollari for this outstanding piece. Now 1 thing I "heard" of importance that he did not say but was my interpretation was that IF the Fed failed, them matters would be handed over to the military. Which I kind of figured.
  • AI
    Andras I.
    15 July 2020 @ 02:35
    Couple of things wrt. China: 1, The government somewhat committed to push into a CONTROLLED market rally - I assume to what Christophe says around 28min mark, to welcome retail investors into the market (plus relocate those tech giants into a pleasing environment). It started to overheat, so the government is trying to slow it down both in communications (even on TV) and selling into the market by large asset managers. 2, Copper and other select commodity rallies might not be algo/momentum driven. China imports in June have increased 50% in raw copper, it started earlier but accelerated by some supply shock. Imports of crude oil are up 34%, soy beans 76% YoY. Next up might be corn (due to flood in the Yangtze basin destroying crops/further flooding fears) - but it's capped by WTO and so far has been choppy.
    • AI
      Andras I.
      15 July 2020 @ 02:44
      And one more thing: CN will have a much cleaner path to a meaningful fiscal push as they're clearing out of the choppy COVID zone and ready to pull the trigger while it's unlikely that this year we'll get anything similar in the US (not during the summer then election circus...etc) Copper stacking seems to confirm this. So I don't agree with M. Ollari about "China is too late" - it's not too late, just don't focus on tech bubble. Time for some fundamental work in infrastructure.
  • MW
    Max W. | Real Vision
    14 July 2020 @ 12:44
    All Real Vision videos have subtitles available. You can find it in the bottom right hand corner of the video player by clicking the "CC" button next to the speed control.
    • WM
      Will M.
      14 July 2020 @ 13:13
      Ha, I have seen this info before but never used it. Its great! Thanks Max.
    • HH
      Hugh H.
      14 July 2020 @ 13:26
      Thanks Max. I have not noticed it so far.
    • AT
      Alun T.
      14 July 2020 @ 15:46
      I used the subtitles for this, but for me they were not great. There are multiple omissions and several translation errors which actually changed the meaning of what he was trying to say (haven't tried the transcript yet). I don't want to cast a downer on this interview however, as he is making some great valid and interesting points, but he is very difficult to understand. I agree with an above comment; let him speak in his native tongue with a proper subtitled translation by someone bilingual and not someone who is doing an average effort writing down his pidgin English. Otherwise, thanks, really enjoyed his contribution.
    • KB
      Keith B.
      14 July 2020 @ 17:04
      Much appreciated
    • AI
      Andras I.
      15 July 2020 @ 01:43
      Max: we complained and the transcript effort has definitely been improved. Please pass on a huge thanks to whoever is responsible! It's important for running research - videos are not searchable and hard to extract information. (Not that this interview had any difficulty to follow to be honest)
  • JW
    Junaid W.
    14 July 2020 @ 10:53
    Really bad audio
    • RA
      Ralph A.
      14 July 2020 @ 11:23
      I stopped listening because I couldn’t understand him
    • SB
      Stephen B.
      14 July 2020 @ 22:51
      I understood Christophe perfectly. You just have to listen. If you want your financial information to come with a crisp east coast or UK accent you are going to miss a lot of perspective. It's a big world out there and Christophe has a remarkable perspective. .
  • DS
    David S.
    14 July 2020 @ 22:39
    Max W. - Thanks for the confirmation on 0.8% gold holdings in family offices. Another place to check is Mr. Ollari's picks in metals. About the 14:36 mark, he corrects himself on what metals he likes for now. Two were overdone for the moment. It is a difficult passage but make a difference in the short run. Great interview. I will watch it again. Mr. Ollari’s insights are well worth the time and effort. DLS
  • SB
    Stephen B.
    14 July 2020 @ 20:50
    I think Christophe is one of the smartest and most interesting of the RV contributors. Here is my 30 second summary of his take on things: There will be a pre and post COVID paradigm. Your capital allocation has to adapt to the new paradigm, which is that CB’s are ready to print, without limit. FED: Will be reluctant to go to NIRP. QE is their main tool. Can buy equities without limit. Fed won’t let markets return to March lows. FX Vol is low because of equilibrium between central banks. Inflation: In the short term, doesn’t see a reflationary push. China: Doesn’t believe the China reflation story – thinks it is retail speculation. Developments in Hong Kong are not positive for China plus Chinese bonds just exited their ten-year bullish trend – despite that, copper, Chinese bonds and equities skyrocketed. PM’s Gold is the Ultimate Asset for the New Paradigm. Has replaced fixed income as a safe haven. Bond trade is relatively crowded. Bullish on silver, platinum and palladium,  Not picking up palladium and rhodium, however, as thinks the reflationary euphoria overdone. Global Equities: Missed Chinese market bounce but it might be over at any time, particularly if Chinese authorities act to dampen speculation. Global investors are underinvested in Europe, which is on a more constructive path than assumed. US: Russell is down 11%, in five weeks, reflecting the fact pricing the fact that the return to a new normal will be long. NASDAQ outperforming the Russell displays the pessimism of the market. We live in a world where algos turbocharge any momentum. What is technical and not macro driven?  Thinks the core story is the Russell / small caps in the US. Looking forward: Macro is uncertain and the economy might be in pain for much longer.
    • mB
      marc B.
      14 July 2020 @ 22:30
      Thank you for summary. He was hard to follow.
  • DB
    Donna B.
    14 July 2020 @ 22:17
    I respect anyone who speaks English as a second language, especially in a complex subject. Rather than watch this video, I read the transcript. But even that was hard to discern all of Christophe's views.
  • TP
    Timothy P.
    14 July 2020 @ 16:30
    I tried, RV I really did. But this guy's accent is thicker than a drunken Quebec fur trapper after a half-gallon of rum. Before you say I'm too harsh, you've had this guy on before -- and I was more restrained about my criticism. By having him on again, that tells me that - 1) You didn't listen to your customers who complained, and it wasn't just me, 2) You must be awfully familiar with this gentleman not to notice it yourself, OR 3) You knew, and didn't care. Here's the HA;DW for my fellow suffering subscribers (Heavy Accent;Didn't Watch): * Similar to the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis, Christophe believes we are entering a post-WuhanFlu era of financial markets that will operate under a new paradigm * This new era will be characterized by monetary policy tools like explicit forward guidance, Yield Curve Control or the Fed buying equities, and a market that treats this as normal * Christophe is not bearish on bonds but believes the risk/reward is not worth it, especially with negative real rates and other tailwinds for risk assets and gold * In general Christophe does not see recent price action from U.S. Equity markets as being disconnected from the real economy as the Russell 2000 is lagging the Nasdaq Please listen to your customers this time.
    • MK
      Michael K.
      14 July 2020 @ 18:59
      Disagree with your disrespectful response that I hope you would not be willing to make in person. But I am grateful for you transcribing what you perceive to be his key points.
    • MK
      Michael K.
      14 July 2020 @ 19:02
      Also it looks like RV now has subtitles in the video directly. Well done team thank you. I like when serious guests with meaty experience in derivs markets are on without pretense.
    • DS
      David S.
      14 July 2020 @ 19:57
      RVTV did listen to subscribers who put real stock in what Mr. Ollari brings to the table. I always enjoy Mr. Ollari's viewpoints and will listen each time he is back. DLS
    • TP
      Timothy P.
      14 July 2020 @ 20:59
      @Michael K - relax, comedic comparison is only used so maybe RV remembers this time. Last time I was much more restrained, and they went ahead and brought him back with no narrative enhancements anyway. Also, subtitles were not automatically enabled/burned when I watched it, and I was only able to make out perhaps 20% of the time what he was trying to say. I didn't pay a large subscription fee to be a translator. I paid to be here so I can have cogent and CLEAR communication about different topics in the financial markets.
  • CB
    Chris B.
    14 July 2020 @ 20:07
    Thank you for having Christophe on RV. I found the update informative and did not have that big of a problem with the accent. But will say I might have if the subtitles were not included. One suggestion on the subtitles and transcript is to have Christophe edit after (I assume) an RV person creates as think this would improve the accuracy. For example, I was puzzled by the comment on 8% allocation to gold when in fact per the comments below it was 0.8%. I say this as I am pretty sure he would have picked up this order of magnitude difference!
  • DS
    David S.
    14 July 2020 @ 20:04
    One viewpoint of the money on the sidelines is the market is not investable for either price or risk. DLS
  • DS
    David S.
    14 July 2020 @ 19:15
    Thank you for the subtitles and the transcript. I believe there is one important correction. Mr. Ollari expected the UBS family office gold allocation would be 5-10%. Instead, if I heard correctly, the UBS family office allocation of gold is 0.8%. The subtitles and transcript show 8%. Mr. Ollari felt the gold trade is not overcrowded so the 0.8% makes sense. Someone else should check me on this. Thanks. DLS
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      14 July 2020 @ 19:55
      You are correct about 0.8%. The number is reported here: https://www.ubs.com/global/en/wealth-management/uhnw/global-family-office-report/global-family-office-report-2019.html.
  • TS
    Theodoros S.
    14 July 2020 @ 19:05
    Fixed Income is dead. I agree that gold has taken the position of bonds in the market at list for the next 5 years. Till then buy gold and value stocks-equities from Japan and Europe and growth from China. As for US, stay invested in consumer staples, utilities and renewable energies. I believe the technology stocks are a bubble and sooner or later they will burst. Good news. Value investing will be back. Bad news, we will have a small crash in USA and the world in November. Just my thoughts.
  • BS
    Bevyn S.
    14 July 2020 @ 18:30
    Totally agree on Europe. EUR/USD has bottomed.
  • MB
    Markus B.
    14 July 2020 @ 17:05
    Christophe is a brilliant thinker and a very sharp mind. His accent is his trademark and it forces some to listen more carefully, if need be, watch the video again. Focus on the content, it will help you to understand, make money and avoid losses.
  • JC
    Juan C.
    14 July 2020 @ 16:37
    Je comprend rien. Perhaps in French and subtitled would have been better.
  • AT
    Alun T.
    14 July 2020 @ 15:56
    A complete contrast to the Daniel LaCalle interview (July 9th) vis-a-vis Europe vs US longer term equity investing. Think I'll move overweight EM once I'm confident that the $ bear phase has really taken hold.
  • WM
    Will M.
    14 July 2020 @ 13:08
    Christiophe always brings a great perspective to RVT. Interesting that he does not believe we will go back to the March lows like many others. True that audio is not great, but in that case just wait for the transcript and all is well.
    • WM
      Will M.
      14 July 2020 @ 13:20
      Oh for me his bullishness on the Euro was the big surprise here. It looks like there is a battle between Euro and Dollar approaching with big implications indeed.
  • MC
    Melvin C.
    14 July 2020 @ 10:45
    I love Ollari. I'm half French so the accent is not a problem... but the slight echo on the audio just makes it very difficult and tiring to listen to: add to that the complexities of the arguments, and I'm getting less than 50% out of this interview which would otherwise have been great. What good quality mics do you recommend for clear audio on video.. and why doesn't RV impose the use of quality mics on all interviews? It's a small investment for a huge improvement in RV service quality, surely worthwhile?
    • PU
      Peter U.
      14 July 2020 @ 13:09
      agree, it is a shame! He has so much to offer.
  • CD
    Christopher D.
    14 July 2020 @ 12:34
    Very true observation of permanent change in policy, justified by the war rhetoric (on drugs, on terror, now on covid). Nothing new to this audience but the Nixon move was also temporary, and as Ollari says QE was supposed to be temporary, etc. Of course, given time, everything is temporary. For our money, the uncomfortable truth is that from now on, it is even more important to be close to the issuing source, ie primary dealer (cf JPM results) or friend of gov. Less free markets, more 'wartime' administered economy.
  • PG
    Parminder G.
    14 July 2020 @ 12:20
    This might be a great video, but I could not understand it without a great deal of effort listening to each word. Needs subtitles, better audio. Either its worth having the guy on (which I suspect it was) or it is not.
  • SO
    Shaun O.
    14 July 2020 @ 11:42
    I know it's been said. But a solution. Rode wireless go is very cheap and very easy to use. Plenty of tutorials on how to set one up on YouTube. Shame this one looked like it could have been a good one
  • MJ
    Marius J.
    14 July 2020 @ 11:37
    As others, he is positive on Europe and refers to BlackRock increasing its position there. Any ideas what retail investors can but to get Europe exposure? Any ETFs?
  • MT
    Matthew T.
    14 July 2020 @ 11:35
    Bad audio.
  • IS
    Ionel S.
    14 July 2020 @ 09:19
    This guy likes gold and equity and bonds and has no clear conviction: very consensual thinking!
  • MF
    Michael F.
    14 July 2020 @ 09:02
    Ollari is a top contributor without a doubt, but it is very hard to understand the French accent when the audio quality is poor. Would love to get a transcript on this interview
  • TN
    Tim N.
    14 July 2020 @ 08:41
    Videos don't seem to be playing. Is there a technical problem with the site
  • JS
    John S.
    14 July 2020 @ 08:36
    Ruined by the crappy audio quality
  • MB
    Martin B.
    14 July 2020 @ 07:58
    Chrisophe is great! But please RV give your guest some instructions on how to get good audio and video. It is really not that difficult. My webcam is over 5 years old and shoots better vids and audio...
    • AG
      Adam G.
      14 July 2020 @ 08:31
      I can hardly comprehend him.
  • WD
    Walther D.
    14 July 2020 @ 06:16
    Please have Christophe on more often. Amazing insights. Thanks !