Comments
Transcript
-
JDOllari has a smart & unique perspective but his accent is unintelligible. Just have an accurate transcript produced for future interviews and skip the recording.
-
AAI think all guests need to use proper mics
-
GLI appreciate the content of the interview and the subtitles are very helpful. In fact, the subtitles allow me to toggle the speed between 1.25x to 2x depending on my pace of understanding. That said, can we try a little harder to make the subtitles more accurate... For instance I believe that at 19:37, he was saying "they (referring to the asset managers) haven't reengaged at all after the chaos of March. One reason being that the CROSS-ASSET correlation is extreme, so basically you CAN'T HAVE uncorrelated strategy when your CROSS-ASSET correlation is so high" .... and NOT: "they haven't reengaged at all after the chaos of march. One reason being that the cost-to [?] correlation is extreme, so basically your calls are uncorrelated strategy when your cost to [?] correlation is so high" ... The latter (i.e. RV's transcription) makes no sense to me at all - which reduces the usability of the transcript for one that has no time to watch the video in its entirety. In fact, erroneous transcription dilutes the key points the speaker is trying to get across and is a major distraction. I trust RV will continue to work hard at this. Otherwise, keep it up RV! Thanks again for great content always.
-
JvAwesome! A pity that sound is so bad... also, subtitles very often just say the opposite of what he says, get a french native, s/he will get it right
-
KvThe subtitled attempt to clarify what he’s saying, while potentially useful, is so full of misunderstandings and ? as to render it distracting. For those used to hearing ppl with a thick French accent speak, what he’s saying is actually is quite discernible (I can certainly understand almost all of it). Ideally have a person who is a French speaker or at least familiar with thick French accents do the subtitles. Perhaps a French Canadian.
-
SSHe’s one of the very very best. Can someone get him a decent mic? Would be no need for subtitles then. Thanks Christophe and RV.
-
MDGreat chat and nice guest RV. Thanks. He brings some honesty and clarify to the markets at the moment - their "apparent" disconnect from macro is as he explains more rational than claimed. Thanks Christophe.
-
PUHe is very smart macro guy and investor. However, his accent really makes it difficult to understand what he is saying. Please allow him to speak in his native tone and get an english translator!!!!!
-
JHA brilliant mind. I'm looking forward to the next interview with C.O.
-
NPBrilliant guy. Need a better subtitle solution.
-
CBThank you for having Christophe on RV. I found the update informative and did not have that big of a problem with the accent. But will say I might have if the subtitles were not included. One suggestion on the subtitles and transcript is to have Christophe edit after (I assume) an RV person creates as think this would improve the accuracy. For example, I was puzzled by the comment on 8% allocation to gold when in fact per the comments below it was 0.8%. I say this as I am pretty sure he would have picked up this order of magnitude difference!
-
BAI particularly appreciated the following: 'Markets ARE NOT pricing a V shaped recovery and markets ARE connected to the economy'.; and 'The Nasdaq outperforming the Russell2000 is proof of this'. Helps me see things in a slightly different way.
-
TGRefreshing! Much better than Raoul Pal's constant rehash of his old thesis.
-
ECThis opened my eyes wider & i thank RV & Ollari for this outstanding piece. Now 1 thing I "heard" of importance that he did not say but was my interpretation was that IF the Fed failed, them matters would be handed over to the military. Which I kind of figured.
-
AICouple of things wrt. China: 1, The government somewhat committed to push into a CONTROLLED market rally - I assume to what Christophe says around 28min mark, to welcome retail investors into the market (plus relocate those tech giants into a pleasing environment). It started to overheat, so the government is trying to slow it down both in communications (even on TV) and selling into the market by large asset managers. 2, Copper and other select commodity rallies might not be algo/momentum driven. China imports in June have increased 50% in raw copper, it started earlier but accelerated by some supply shock. Imports of crude oil are up 34%, soy beans 76% YoY. Next up might be corn (due to flood in the Yangtze basin destroying crops/further flooding fears) - but it's capped by WTO and so far has been choppy.
-
MWAll Real Vision videos have subtitles available. You can find it in the bottom right hand corner of the video player by clicking the "CC" button next to the speed control.
-
JWReally bad audio
-
DSMax W. - Thanks for the confirmation on 0.8% gold holdings in family offices. Another place to check is Mr. Ollari's picks in metals. About the 14:36 mark, he corrects himself on what metals he likes for now. Two were overdone for the moment. It is a difficult passage but make a difference in the short run. Great interview. I will watch it again. Mr. Ollari’s insights are well worth the time and effort. DLS
-
SBI think Christophe is one of the smartest and most interesting of the RV contributors. Here is my 30 second summary of his take on things: There will be a pre and post COVID paradigm. Your capital allocation has to adapt to the new paradigm, which is that CB’s are ready to print, without limit. FED: Will be reluctant to go to NIRP. QE is their main tool. Can buy equities without limit. Fed won’t let markets return to March lows. FX Vol is low because of equilibrium between central banks. Inflation: In the short term, doesn’t see a reflationary push. China: Doesn’t believe the China reflation story – thinks it is retail speculation. Developments in Hong Kong are not positive for China plus Chinese bonds just exited their ten-year bullish trend – despite that, copper, Chinese bonds and equities skyrocketed. PM’s Gold is the Ultimate Asset for the New Paradigm. Has replaced fixed income as a safe haven. Bond trade is relatively crowded. Bullish on silver, platinum and palladium, Not picking up palladium and rhodium, however, as thinks the reflationary euphoria overdone. Global Equities: Missed Chinese market bounce but it might be over at any time, particularly if Chinese authorities act to dampen speculation. Global investors are underinvested in Europe, which is on a more constructive path than assumed. US: Russell is down 11%, in five weeks, reflecting the fact pricing the fact that the return to a new normal will be long. NASDAQ outperforming the Russell displays the pessimism of the market. We live in a world where algos turbocharge any momentum. What is technical and not macro driven? Thinks the core story is the Russell / small caps in the US. Looking forward: Macro is uncertain and the economy might be in pain for much longer.
-
DBI respect anyone who speaks English as a second language, especially in a complex subject. Rather than watch this video, I read the transcript. But even that was hard to discern all of Christophe's views.
-
TPI tried, RV I really did. But this guy's accent is thicker than a drunken Quebec fur trapper after a half-gallon of rum. Before you say I'm too harsh, you've had this guy on before -- and I was more restrained about my criticism. By having him on again, that tells me that - 1) You didn't listen to your customers who complained, and it wasn't just me, 2) You must be awfully familiar with this gentleman not to notice it yourself, OR 3) You knew, and didn't care. Here's the HA;DW for my fellow suffering subscribers (Heavy Accent;Didn't Watch): * Similar to the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis, Christophe believes we are entering a post-WuhanFlu era of financial markets that will operate under a new paradigm * This new era will be characterized by monetary policy tools like explicit forward guidance, Yield Curve Control or the Fed buying equities, and a market that treats this as normal * Christophe is not bearish on bonds but believes the risk/reward is not worth it, especially with negative real rates and other tailwinds for risk assets and gold * In general Christophe does not see recent price action from U.S. Equity markets as being disconnected from the real economy as the Russell 2000 is lagging the Nasdaq Please listen to your customers this time.
-
CBThank you for having Christophe on RV. I found the update informative and did not have that big of a problem with the accent. But will say I might have if the subtitles were not included. One suggestion on the subtitles and transcript is to have Christophe edit after (I assume) an RV person creates as think this would improve the accuracy. For example, I was puzzled by the comment on 8% allocation to gold when in fact per the comments below it was 0.8%. I say this as I am pretty sure he would have picked up this order of magnitude difference!
-
DSOne viewpoint of the money on the sidelines is the market is not investable for either price or risk. DLS
-
DSThank you for the subtitles and the transcript. I believe there is one important correction. Mr. Ollari expected the UBS family office gold allocation would be 5-10%. Instead, if I heard correctly, the UBS family office allocation of gold is 0.8%. The subtitles and transcript show 8%. Mr. Ollari felt the gold trade is not overcrowded so the 0.8% makes sense. Someone else should check me on this. Thanks. DLS
-
TSFixed Income is dead. I agree that gold has taken the position of bonds in the market at list for the next 5 years. Till then buy gold and value stocks-equities from Japan and Europe and growth from China. As for US, stay invested in consumer staples, utilities and renewable energies. I believe the technology stocks are a bubble and sooner or later they will burst. Good news. Value investing will be back. Bad news, we will have a small crash in USA and the world in November. Just my thoughts.
-
BSTotally agree on Europe. EUR/USD has bottomed.
-
MBChristophe is a brilliant thinker and a very sharp mind. His accent is his trademark and it forces some to listen more carefully, if need be, watch the video again. Focus on the content, it will help you to understand, make money and avoid losses.
-
JCJe comprend rien. Perhaps in French and subtitled would have been better.
-
ATA complete contrast to the Daniel LaCalle interview (July 9th) vis-a-vis Europe vs US longer term equity investing. Think I'll move overweight EM once I'm confident that the $ bear phase has really taken hold.
-
WMChristiophe always brings a great perspective to RVT. Interesting that he does not believe we will go back to the March lows like many others. True that audio is not great, but in that case just wait for the transcript and all is well.
-
MCI love Ollari. I'm half French so the accent is not a problem... but the slight echo on the audio just makes it very difficult and tiring to listen to: add to that the complexities of the arguments, and I'm getting less than 50% out of this interview which would otherwise have been great. What good quality mics do you recommend for clear audio on video.. and why doesn't RV impose the use of quality mics on all interviews? It's a small investment for a huge improvement in RV service quality, surely worthwhile?
-
CDVery true observation of permanent change in policy, justified by the war rhetoric (on drugs, on terror, now on covid). Nothing new to this audience but the Nixon move was also temporary, and as Ollari says QE was supposed to be temporary, etc. Of course, given time, everything is temporary. For our money, the uncomfortable truth is that from now on, it is even more important to be close to the issuing source, ie primary dealer (cf JPM results) or friend of gov. Less free markets, more 'wartime' administered economy.
-
PSThis might be a great video, but I could not understand it without a great deal of effort listening to each word. Needs subtitles, better audio. Either its worth having the guy on (which I suspect it was) or it is not.
-
SOI know it's been said. But a solution. Rode wireless go is very cheap and very easy to use. Plenty of tutorials on how to set one up on YouTube. Shame this one looked like it could have been a good one
-
MJAs others, he is positive on Europe and refers to BlackRock increasing its position there. Any ideas what retail investors can but to get Europe exposure? Any ETFs?
-
MTBad audio.
-
ISThis guy likes gold and equity and bonds and has no clear conviction: very consensual thinking!
-
MFOllari is a top contributor without a doubt, but it is very hard to understand the French accent when the audio quality is poor. Would love to get a transcript on this interview
-
TNVideos don't seem to be playing. Is there a technical problem with the site
-
JSRuined by the crappy audio quality
-
MBChrisophe is great! But please RV give your guest some instructions on how to get good audio and video. It is really not that difficult. My webcam is over 5 years old and shoots better vids and audio...
-
WDPlease have Christophe on more often. Amazing insights. Thanks !
Chapters
-
The Post-Covid Macro Paradigm
-
Rethinking the Old “Rules”
-
Gold: The Ultimate Asset for the New Paradigm
-
Why Gold and Not Bonds?
-
What are Possible Scenarios for Policy Normalization?
-
What Comes First, the Fed Buying Equities or NIRP?
-
Market Positioning: Still a Lot of Cash on the Sidelines
-
Making Sense of Cross Asset Vol
-
Do You Buy the Reflation Narrative?
-
Cross Asset Correlations: Is it All the Same Trade?
-
Comparing Reopenings and Regional Outlooks
-
Thoughts on European Fiscal Union and Long-term European Outlook
-
Are U.S. Multinationals Part of this View?
-
Summary and Takeaways