Is the Big Cycle About to Turn?

Published on
February 20th, 2019
24 minutes

Is the Big Cycle About to Turn?

The Expert View ·
Featuring Ron William

Published on: February 20th, 2019 • Duration: 24 minutes

Ron William, founder of RWA, has been studying cycles and market behavior for over 20 years. He sees great value in using cycles to drive the investment decision, but he also acknowledges their limitations. Fundamentals, applied to a cycle framework, provide a key risk management tool to help navigate the oncoming turn in the big picture trends. Filmed on January 23, 2019 in London.


  • LC
    Lloyd C.
    6 March 2019 @ 09:18
    Can we get Martin Armstrong on again?
  • TM
    The-First-James M.
    20 February 2019 @ 13:27
    Would like to see more of this guy. Would I be correct to assume him to be a protege/ward of Robin Griffiths? It would have been great to get his analysis of Gold, because that's looking very interesting at the present time - Gold strength across multiple currencies.
    • HJ
      Harry J.
      21 February 2019 @ 18:10
      Not that he knows but I would like to hear his view on gold.
    • RW
      Ron W. | Contributor
      26 February 2019 @ 21:24
      Hi James (M), Thanks for your kind feedback. Yes, Robin Griffiths is a mentor and friend. We publish monthly think pieces; under the T3 brand (Trends, Timing & Tactics). Re. Gold, will follow up. Regards, + RW +
  • RH
    Rob H.
    22 February 2019 @ 21:02
    When someone talks about moving averages they need to specify the time frame they are using. I assume they are using the daily but you know what happens when you start making assumptions.
    • RW
      Ron W. | Contributor
      26 February 2019 @ 21:12
      Hi Rob, thanks for your question about my reference to using moving averages (MAs), to gauge trends and cycles. The timeframe is daily, hence why I alluded to the LT/STRATEGIC 200-day MA representing the annual benchmark. MT/TACTICAL 50-dMA, Quarterly. ST/ACTIVE 20-dMA, Monthly. Let me know if I can help with any further Q's. Regards, + RW +
  • RH
    Rob H.
    22 February 2019 @ 20:58
    Real Vision - note that this format does not work well with Audio only, The questions need to to have Audio as well.
    • DR
      David R.
      23 February 2019 @ 12:11
      That's been a shortcoming for seemingly all interviews for years, sigh.
  • CS
    Chris S.
    22 February 2019 @ 10:33
    Very good interview! That is exactly the type of information I was expecting from the John Taylor interview (which I found disappointing). Those more conceptual presentations are a welcome complement to the more market related talks. I find both very important and would prefer a little more of those process/conceptual pieces. They give me ideas to improve my process.
  • JL
    James L.
    21 February 2019 @ 23:25
    great video. more please
  • CB
    C B.
    20 February 2019 @ 17:50
    I was just sitting in a weekly meeting with a group of 8, peers, who are advisors. We all manage a book of approximately $200M, each. Our firm uses a model portfolio setup and an AUM model. This group of advisors has no opinion on the central banks, good, bad or indifferent They could not demonstrate any knowledge of what the central banks are doing now or have done historically. Of course, there is no incentive for them to perform this research because it is not part of the collateral that we use to sell management services. In fact, I would go as far as to say that they did not believe that central banks matter at all. Is the big cycle about to turn? Perhaps, and when it does, this group of peers (and the thousands of advisors like them) will have zero ability to explain the dynamics that lead us to the turn.
    • DC
      D C.
      20 February 2019 @ 22:03
      Thanks for the honesty CB. Imho, advisors are generally successful because they are great at asset gathering, not necessarily insightful about the market or investing process. As such, advisors can't go wrong selling their trusted corporate brand, and won't get fired as long as they tow the company model portfolio. (Herd wrong, I'm wrong ok, but Herd right, and I'm wrong, I get a lot of heat). Wonder when the lemming age will go the way of the do-do.
    • DR
      David R.
      20 February 2019 @ 23:19
      There's an entire trading discipline that believes Central Banks tend to follow, not lead, and there's a lot of evidence to back it up, as well as a lot of profits that have been earned by it.
    • DS
      David S.
      20 February 2019 @ 23:51
      David R. - I agree. I feel that CB are forced to follow in order to clean up everybody's mess. The day that CB don't or can't step in Katie bar the door. DLS
    • SB
      S. B.
      21 February 2019 @ 09:11
      David S. In my opinion, the Central Banks helped create the mess with their decades of market-distorting policies.
    • DS
      David S.
      21 February 2019 @ 09:58
      S.B. - Most knowledgeable people would agree with your statement. I know that I am a minority of one, Each time the CBs have taken a stand, they are cleaning up a mess that the market made. As a stop gap measure, they are important. QE1 was reasonable to settle down the markets. After that CBs went too far since the regulators, Wall Street and the politicians would not man up. The only reason that CBs were involved was to clean up the mess that the market and politicians made. In the future if the market and the politicians hold the market together the CB will happily stay in the ivory tower. DLS
    • HJ
      Harry J.
      21 February 2019 @ 18:06
      David s I’ve only been in the business for 45 years but as I recall most of the messes we deal with were caused by CB. You have it backwards!
    • DS
      David S.
      21 February 2019 @ 18:40
      Harry J. - I said I was a minority of one. After we went off the gold standard, there has been no restraint on government spending. How many times has Wall Street been bailed out even before the gold window was closed? It might have been better to let Wall Street implode with each crisis. The counterfactual was always opposed by Wall Street and the politicians. I am not trying to win an argument here, I just think there is plenty of blame to go around. DLS
  • AG
    Adam G.
    21 February 2019 @ 15:58
    Id like to see an example of the report posted on Think Tank
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    21 February 2019 @ 12:47
    This was truly excellent. Please have him on again. Less doom and gloom and more substantive discussions like this. Also, please have Mike Green on again soon.
  • MN
    Michael N.
    21 February 2019 @ 08:43
    Wonderful interview, would love a return visit and for him to discuss how he uses the various cycles to build an investment Thesis and when to grant the cycle extra time to play out like the yield market towards the end
  • DR
    David R.
    20 February 2019 @ 23:51
    Absolutely outstanding!!! This won't be for everyone, but for serious investors, traders and professionals interested in technical and cyclical factors, it was truly superb. Ranks among the top few pieces I've seen in RV and ThinkTank. More, please! Thanks.
  • DS
    David S.
    20 February 2019 @ 23:42
    Well done. I enjoyed the presentation. I especially like the fact that Mr. William brings accumulated market smarts and charts together to make sense of the market. He is then capable of using all kinds of market tools to implement a strategy. I think my only real option, as in 2018, is to stay mostly in short-term cash equivalents as I am not smart enough to properly hedge. I did enjoy buying Christmas Eve and shortly after but sold all since. Waiting for market downturns is no fun, but it may be my best bet. I guess I will spend more time walking on the beach and trying to improve my tennis. DLS.
  • AF
    Aidan F.
    20 February 2019 @ 22:53
    could do with listening to this guy before every trade.
  • SM
    S M.
    20 February 2019 @ 19:59
    Great interview, I enjoyed very much. Always facilitated to learn different types of business cycles and real market implementation of it. I wish he comes back and tell us more in depth.
  • V!
    Volatimothy !.
    20 February 2019 @ 15:14
    When it comes to US bonds I can’t get past a few things. 1. With the risk parity model Boomers are mostly in bonds. 2. Mandatory distributions have been going on a few years and will continue. 3. If employment turns, those who can’t find work could retire or do a hardship distribution. 4. By the end of this year every Boomer could receive 401k distributions without penalty, those 55 to 59 1/2 would have to leave employer where funds are held. 5. Personal tax cuts expire in 2025 and many could come out better before they do. 6. Medical issues could cause a lot of hardship distributions, given the state of health in the US. Some might say why would they retire early if they don’t have enough savings. If you haven’t saved enough in 30 to 40 years can you really make it up in 10. Will they continue to contribute if prices keep falling, especially those who are making catch up contributions. The longer it takes to go down makes me believe it will be more vicious. I don’t plan on shorting it but I definitely won’t be a buyer.
  • TJ
    Terry J.
    20 February 2019 @ 15:04
    Most interesting, and I agree with James M about seeing more of Ron. I love the diversity of analysis and views we get from RV. Invaluable!