Comments
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LCCan we get Martin Armstrong on again?
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TMWould like to see more of this guy. Would I be correct to assume him to be a protege/ward of Robin Griffiths? It would have been great to get his analysis of Gold, because that's looking very interesting at the present time - Gold strength across multiple currencies.
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RHWhen someone talks about moving averages they need to specify the time frame they are using. I assume they are using the daily but you know what happens when you start making assumptions.
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RHReal Vision - note that this format does not work well with Audio only, The questions need to to have Audio as well.
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CSVery good interview! That is exactly the type of information I was expecting from the John Taylor interview (which I found disappointing). Those more conceptual presentations are a welcome complement to the more market related talks. I find both very important and would prefer a little more of those process/conceptual pieces. They give me ideas to improve my process.
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JLgreat video. more please
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CBI was just sitting in a weekly meeting with a group of 8, peers, who are advisors. We all manage a book of approximately $200M, each. Our firm uses a model portfolio setup and an AUM model. This group of advisors has no opinion on the central banks, good, bad or indifferent They could not demonstrate any knowledge of what the central banks are doing now or have done historically. Of course, there is no incentive for them to perform this research because it is not part of the collateral that we use to sell management services. In fact, I would go as far as to say that they did not believe that central banks matter at all. Is the big cycle about to turn? Perhaps, and when it does, this group of peers (and the thousands of advisors like them) will have zero ability to explain the dynamics that lead us to the turn.
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AGId like to see an example of the report posted on Think Tank
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JHThis was truly excellent. Please have him on again. Less doom and gloom and more substantive discussions like this. Also, please have Mike Green on again soon.
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MNWonderful interview, would love a return visit and for him to discuss how he uses the various cycles to build an investment Thesis and when to grant the cycle extra time to play out like the yield market towards the end
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DRAbsolutely outstanding!!! This won't be for everyone, but for serious investors, traders and professionals interested in technical and cyclical factors, it was truly superb. Ranks among the top few pieces I've seen in RV and ThinkTank. More, please! Thanks.
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DSWell done. I enjoyed the presentation. I especially like the fact that Mr. William brings accumulated market smarts and charts together to make sense of the market. He is then capable of using all kinds of market tools to implement a strategy. I think my only real option, as in 2018, is to stay mostly in short-term cash equivalents as I am not smart enough to properly hedge. I did enjoy buying Christmas Eve and shortly after but sold all since. Waiting for market downturns is no fun, but it may be my best bet. I guess I will spend more time walking on the beach and trying to improve my tennis. DLS.
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AFcould do with listening to this guy before every trade.
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SMGreat interview, I enjoyed very much. Always facilitated to learn different types of business cycles and real market implementation of it. I wish he comes back and tell us more in depth.
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V!When it comes to US bonds I can’t get past a few things. 1. With the risk parity model Boomers are mostly in bonds. 2. Mandatory distributions have been going on a few years and will continue. 3. If employment turns, those who can’t find work could retire or do a hardship distribution. 4. By the end of this year every Boomer could receive 401k distributions without penalty, those 55 to 59 1/2 would have to leave employer where funds are held. 5. Personal tax cuts expire in 2025 and many could come out better before they do. 6. Medical issues could cause a lot of hardship distributions, given the state of health in the US. Some might say why would they retire early if they don’t have enough savings. If you haven’t saved enough in 30 to 40 years can you really make it up in 10. Will they continue to contribute if prices keep falling, especially those who are making catch up contributions. The longer it takes to go down makes me believe it will be more vicious. I don’t plan on shorting it but I definitely won’t be a buyer.
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TJMost interesting, and I agree with James M about seeing more of Ron. I love the diversity of analysis and views we get from RV. Invaluable!
Chapters
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What are the Main Cycles?
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Have You Back Tested the Cycles?
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What are the Behavioral Inputs?
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What are the Limitations of this Approach?
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How Successful is this Methodology at Catching Turns?
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What is Your Big Picture View?
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What is Your View on Europe?
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What is the Outlook for U.S. Bonds?
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How Would You Manage a Long Equity Position from Here?