Julian Brigden — Markets, Monetary Policy, and Society: A Major Inflection Point

Published on
September 28th, 2020
Duration
44 minutes


Julian Brigden — Markets, Monetary Policy, and Society: A Major Inflection Point

The Expert View ·
Featuring Julian Brigden

Published on: September 28th, 2020 • Duration: 44 minutes

We kicked off week one of "Has Everything Changed?" with Raoul's take on the question. Here to kick off an equally exciting week two is Julian Brigden, founder of MI2 Partners. As Real Vision Pro members already know, Julian and Raoul rarely agree on everything, and in this interview, you’ll get a completely different perspective. Brigden argues that the biggest effects from COVID are not course-altering changes, but rather the acceleration of the inevitable. He explains how markets and even society as a whole have been brought to a major inflection point and provides his view on the assets that will help investors come out on top when the dust finally settles. Filmed on September 23, 2020.

Comments

Transcript

  • Hv
    Hannah v.
    18 October 2020 @ 20:41
    I wish Julian could talk to us middling wealthers once fortnightly or once a month. I just love him and get so much out of his presentations. His style and content is accessible and frankly worth way more than the general volume of content. I’m not saying that RV content is lacking, but Julian is an unsung shining star. He’s awesome with narrative, and as a Canadian, I’m able to tailor his synopsis to my local markets and needs. I understand his main audience is the ultra-wealthy but could RV please carve out a monthly or bi-weekly slot for him? As RV subscribers, we don’t need more content... we need more Julian.
  • SG
    Sashi G.
    6 October 2020 @ 09:07
    Refreshing to see someone else looking towards broad commodity bullishness. I think this is where Julian and Raoul may disagree? Commodities will be THE surprise of 2021 that no one saw coming and then rationalize why it happened. Supply issues will be one reason that drives it.
  • MP
    Michael P.
    4 October 2020 @ 18:29
    Suggestion for improvement: leave the charts up longer so we can study them while he is talking. You flash them so quickly that one needs to take a screen shot in order to study him while he talks.
    • AG
      Amir G.
      5 October 2020 @ 15:44
      I would also like to see more explanation of the charts especially the USD supply chart. What do we see there and how is it computed. It looks dramatic so I think it warrants a little more discussion.
  • JP
    Jan P.
    5 October 2020 @ 10:22
    A bit of a logical leap here. How can we have inflation without growth in lending? Credit is now contracting. Looking out to next year's fiscal ignores the massive contraction dead ahead. This thesis implies that something needs to first happen to spur the economy, such as a big back-to-work scheme next year, but what of the deflationary effects of bankruptcies etc before that? Moreover, treasuries will apparently fall with inflation, which needs to occur with credit growth, which still may not happen for ages, but foreigners will sell treasuries during the same time because.... The EU's growth will be so good? There will be better optys elsewhere? Why? Hard to see.
  • LO
    Luke O.
    29 September 2020 @ 17:19
    Could you please get Brent Johnson and Julian on at the same time to talk all things USD. Julian puts forward an extremely compelling argument for USD bearishness and goes into high detail as to why. One of the cruxes of his arguments was that the Europeans won't do as much as the USA in terms of fiscal spending/currency devaluation. There is no more detail there: the Europeans just "won't". The arguments as to why the USD should fall is well understood based on what the USA will do. But there isn't nearly enough discussion as to what the Europeans will do, the UK considering negative rates or any other country in the world. What is everyone else going to do is what I want to know about.
    • WM
      Will M.
      2 October 2020 @ 00:22
      Good points Luke. I also follow Martin Armstrong (and others) who say the dollar will surprise to the upside largely based on what happens in Europe, so I am on tenterhooks waiting to see who is right here.
    • LO
      Luke O.
      5 October 2020 @ 05:46
      Thanks Will, haven't hear of Martin Armstrong, I will look up him up.
  • CP
    Chamil P.
    5 October 2020 @ 00:42
    I wonder how much of a role the weather plays in deaths from COVID. If cold weather leads to a higher death rate the US and Europe (including Sweden) may have a long way to go.
  • PO
    Paul O.
    4 October 2020 @ 00:51
    Thanks Julian. While i like the conversations you have with Raoul, it's great to watch you roll through your current thesis from beginning to end without interuption. I now have a better understanding of how you are interpreting the current macro world and how it all fits together. Please do more of these presentations.
  • ZM
    Zachary M.
    2 October 2020 @ 18:43
    The US takes in foreign currency to fund its debt?
  • AW
    Aaron W.
    2 October 2020 @ 05:17
    Excellent as usual
  • SB
    Shawn B.
    2 October 2020 @ 05:11
    If we would have isolated the elderly and advised family members to be around them safely, we would have been opened back up. But because Democrats in the US want Trump to lose, they will do anything to make him look bad. So instead of doing a methodical approach, they let their cities burn, locked down most states and have painted themselves into a corner which is going to cost tax payers way way more than it had to. I also blame Republicans on many issues as well. There is plenty of blame to go around. But our system doesn't work, unless both sides swallow their pride and purge their greed, Compromise is the grease that lubricates the Democracy wheels. it's a shame it went this way
  • NL
    Nikola L.
    2 October 2020 @ 01:18
    great.
  • MC
    Michael C.
    30 September 2020 @ 00:57
    Write this down..."herd immunity". Going thru the literature, there is not agreement that the Swedish experiment worked or is working. And with 50 states with 50 plans going into winter on top of flu, I don't have the confidence the US is coming down the backside. re:death rates...could be rates are declining but there is the underbelly of US society who fear hospitals or lack insurance/funds to go to a hospital and die there. Throw in younger patients who don't die but suffer the "long haul" impact of damage to various organs including the heart and lungs. I think we're in a Rumsfeld moment, we don't know what we don't know. I agree about inflation from this standpoint. There is no way in Hades the debt can be paid back by raising taxes/cutting spending. A debt jubilee would tick off the debt holders, foreign and domestic. The foreigners might want a piece of US territory in return...;). So I end up at the same place, inflate our way out. Unfortunately all that "spending" is not going to go toward a WPA or TVA type projects with multiplier effects. It's going to be a transfer of funds and everyone is going to want some of the govt teat. So instead putting the gun on the table to rob us, it'll be done with slight of hand and the inflation will be remarkably "under control". I disagree with the "value" stock throwaway, XLI. Whatever is produced will need to be paid for. Slower GDP with debt drag should further dampen demand. And monies will go to capital equipment (if needed) and not labor, social unrest? The end conclusion, precious metals and commodities will outperform, seems a good bet and esp since the investors who remember the 70's with Nixon's "we are all Keynesians now", Ford's Whip Inflation Now, and Carter's sweater/malaise speech, and finally Tall Paul Volcker are fewer and fewer.
    • MV
      Mark V.
      30 September 2020 @ 08:49
      Monoclonols will make a huge difference. $REGN announcement today.
    • JC
      John C.
      30 September 2020 @ 19:32
      Your leftist political bias is showing. Trust me, if and when Biden wins this virus will magically start going away as will the lockdowns. The Democrats have been very political in trying to make sure that the lockdowns continue so that the economy doesn't get back up on its feet again. This virus is the gift that keeps on giving - prior to Covid Trump was almost a shoe-in for re-election. Covid is Biden's running mate effectively. As for Sweden, the data is better and better and they basically are down to almost no coronavirus deaths now and way fewer hospital patients. Similar to where the US will eventually get. The death rate remains very low for people < 65 years of age. Even in a country like the US where obesity reigns. In a year or so we will look back and see how political this virus got and how insanely stupid it was to lockdown entire countries for months on end to try to stop a virus that is already very widespread throughout the populace.
    • WM
      Will M.
      2 October 2020 @ 00:26
      Sorry I just can't agree with the level of angst you display on covid. It is always going to remain a 1% average killer and the vast majority of these will be the elderly or those with co-morbitities. We have nothing to fear but fear itself......
  • PS
    Paul S.
    29 September 2020 @ 13:11
    Great insightful video thanks Julian. Covid is like getting in a car. There will always be a risk, managing the risk is the key. Many people go safely about their daily business, they drive sensibly, wear a seatbelt and manage the risk by taking sensible precautions. Covid is no different, we have learnt to live with vehicle risks, it's time to let people manage their own risks and make their own decisions and outcomes with Covid. With so many anti-maskers, the virus will never go away, time to just learn to live with it, as sad as that might appear to some.
    • JC
      John C.
      30 September 2020 @ 19:36
      The virus was way more widespread early on (China made sure of that with their denials & feckless response) and with increasing evidence of pre-existing T-cell immunity/resistance (from other coronavirus exposure) it's pretty clear that many places were already on their way to some form of herd immunity even in June-July. Even now the death rate for anyone below the age of 65 is very, very low. Not saying we don't need to take precautions and protect the elderly, we do, but we need to open up safely and responsibly as lockdowns are entirely destructive from here on out and will cause much more pain, suffering, deaths, job losses, suicides, social disorder etc. than this virus will.
    • WM
      Will M.
      2 October 2020 @ 00:19
      Thoroughly agree with both of you.
  • ji
    jayanth i.
    29 September 2020 @ 04:17
    Really refreshing to see someone using some common sense with ''COVID'' statistics, look at the death numbers and as thousands of doctors keep repeatedly stating, the statistics CLEARLY show that death figures aren't anything more than a bad influenza season. Turn off the TV's brainwashing propaganda and realise all the hype is designed to explain the coming economic RESET. buy gold, silver and bitcoin, hedge for every scenario and stay diversified.
    • TW
      Todd W.
      29 September 2020 @ 08:10
      I mean this just isn’t true. If you look at the YOY deaths for the United States and run the chart over covid deaths, you see that the actual death rate is about 20% higher than reported. It’s referred to the excess death rate and its public information. However I agree with him that the deaths are now reducing by percentage for some reason.
    • WM
      Will M.
      2 October 2020 @ 00:16
      Fear remains the biggest driver for covid 19. As a mid 60 year old guy and an avid news watcher for 45 years, I have rarely seen the level of fear and social correctness on public media. I am NOT saying the virus is not a problem, nor deadly, but we have yet to face the true economic consequences of widespread lockdown decisions.
  • ML
    Michael L.
    29 September 2020 @ 01:34
    As a RV Pro member, how do we get our questions in for the upcoming AMA?
    • WM
      Will M.
      2 October 2020 @ 00:12
      You should always receive an email soliciting questions....I have.
  • AA
    Aymman A.
    28 September 2020 @ 21:15
    I think Julian is right that COVID is no longer a real threat. Please don’t think I am proposing that COVID is not real or something ridiculous like that. I am a physician and there are many COVID patients in our hospital. I have taken care of some them. In early February I was going crazy telling my colleagues that a terrible pandemic is coming.... no one listened to me. They treated me like I was weird (which I am, .... but I am not stupid) Now something strange (good) is happening. Patients with COVID don’t seem to die. This is definitely anecdotal. BUT that is how all insights begin. I know many health care people (nurses etc.) who were not in good condition. When they got COVID I said to myself O God xxxx is going to die. But nothing happened and she came back to work after quarantine! This is DEFINITELY NOT disease that ravaged Italy and New York. No way! Something has changed! My theories: 1. The new variant of COVID D614G is just less deadly. The disease is just going away on its own. I think this is the cause. 2. Mask wearing is reducing the “viral load” on infection and that is giving a milder version of the disease. 3. Better care: The media says this but really? What? We have not come up with any real cure. Remdesivir is a sham. I do NOT see any game changing improvement in treatments. 4. Younger people are getting it: REQUEST: Can someone post an Age Adjusted Hospitalization / Mortality graph over time. I really want to see this graph. I can’t find one. 5. Herd immunity. 6. ???
    • RM
      Robert M.
      28 September 2020 @ 23:59
      Red Cross just released that they tested 1.2 million donations since June (pretty good sample size). 2% had antibodies. Believe we are a long way from herd immunity. And I hope you are correct on the virus becoming less deadly as it may be the best solution. Had a perfectly healthy friend pass away in 2 weeks in mid-August, so what ever the "X" factor is, for some this is still a deadly disease.
    • FD
      Frank D.
      29 September 2020 @ 10:43
      Robert Koch Institute has updates on Age groups.
    • MS
      Michael S.
      29 September 2020 @ 21:34
      In Wisconsin our hospitalizations, cases and deaths are accelerating. Highest level we have ever seen during the Covid-19 Pandemic. As Dr. Michael Osterholm says: This virus will not die down until there is no more wood to burn. (Herding or Vaccine) Sure death rate may be down, but when cases rise hospitalizations appear to rise. It is effecting human interaction and behavior. This effects our movement. The scale of the effect is up for grabs but it appears we will have the virus to contend with until an effective vaccine is widely available.
    • WM
      Will M.
      2 October 2020 @ 00:10
      Robert M, my true commiserations on the loss of your friend. What would have been useful is to let us know the age of your friend and the number of co-morbidities they had. The facts remain that this disease is PRIMARILY deadly to only the elderly and or those with the specified co-morbitities.
  • PJ
    Peter J.
    28 September 2020 @ 13:34
    Waited a long time for an update from Julián, but didn’t disappoint. Great presentation, hopefully won’t have to wait too long as a non pro member to hear from him again. 🤑
    • LM
      Laura M.
      28 September 2020 @ 16:25
      Julian is doing a live Q&A just for Pro members this week, Peter! Email about it coming soon...
    • km
      ken m.
      29 September 2020 @ 04:45
      Honestly - what you see here demonstrates why it is a very good reason to go Pro. I always take the view, re subscriptions etc. that I have to make more money than it costs, hopefully much more. Pro may seem expensive but it pays off so well that I plan to be a lifetime member.
    • WM
      Will M.
      2 October 2020 @ 00:00
      This is why I shelve out for the RV PRO subscription. I would also encourage more subscribers to play for the pro service and make the subscription cost back on your trade advice winnings therein. I made 20 times the cost of the pro service after tax and I took only 33% of the recommendations made, almost all of which made a profit.
  • CT
    Chris T.
    28 September 2020 @ 12:58
    good to see some common sense data talk around covid.. been calling for this for months instead we got the vaccine guy talking up need for vaccine. what Julian described on covid will be a massive turning point for markets once it becomes mainstream...
    • DL
      Dan L.
      28 September 2020 @ 14:32
      Virologists are looking at the same data and they are not seeing herd immunity. There are other explanations for lower fatality rates, such as exposure to lower doses of virus in outdoor settings and younger people self-isolating less than older folks. The fatality rate may continue to trend lower, but we do not yet know what impact the shift to indoor settings this winter will have, so be careful about drawing your conclusions prematurely.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      28 September 2020 @ 15:57
      Totally agree Dan. JB notes that hospitalizations are not rising yet. But we should remain hyper vigilant.
    • LK
      L K.
      28 September 2020 @ 16:05
      Another reason why the association between death rate and confirmed case rate is weak is that as testing has become more widespread, the confirmed case rate has approached the true case rate. Only time will tell whether this and other seasonal effects will dominate the improvements in mitigation and treatment. The argument about vulnerable people dying earlier in the outbreak also doesn't seem to pass the smell test, given the low proportion of the population who seem to have been exposed, even in badly affected countries. Also, given that age is the best predictor of mortality, it appears that there are plenty of vulnerable people, who haven't been infected, left in the developed world.
    • JA
      John A.
      28 September 2020 @ 19:58
      We never were going to know if the death rates are done going up till we got thru half of Q4 IMO. Many of the worst places in terms of spread were large cities that were much slower to reopen. Seeing how NYC handles the next two months for example should be very telling. Everyone has to remember that the death data lags and other than this year, we have little to compare to. It is encouraging, but when doing these comparisons we need to consider population density and social distancing policies and their awareness. I think if NYC (the highest population density in the US) gets out of November without a measured increase in death rates to go with whatever increase in infections we get from further reopening; then we can start calling us past the worst of this pandemic. My gut tells me we are already there, but I still want to see a couple of months of data with colder weather back in the picture.
    • DS
      David S.
      28 September 2020 @ 21:35
      The gates are closed on COVID when we lock down. The gates are open when we let up. Forget first, second, and third wave. The variance is due to opening and closing the COVID gates. This will keep up until the vaccine is available to most. The gates are completely open in Florida. We will see what happens. Cases will certainly go up. Hopefully, hospitalizations per case will go down with younger victims. Get your flu shot. It increases your chances of not fighting a regular flue and COVID at the same time. DLS
    • WM
      Will M.
      1 October 2020 @ 23:56
      There other sites and professionals saying that covid has had its death peak. I am not going to list them here as this is not the relevant platform, suffice to say the opposition to further lockdowns and economic destruction is building. Vaccine or no vaccine we must open the economy or face socialist regime dynamics.
  • RW
    Robert W.
    1 October 2020 @ 21:23
    Best of breed
  • TK
    Terje K.
    30 September 2020 @ 19:33
    Great video, but I think a key data point was missing regarding COVID: Testing. The number of actual cases would probably be WAY higher in the beginning if the US did the same amount of testing from day 1 as they do now, right? Guys, I'd like your thoughts on this: My theory is that we are doing some great work with social distancing, masks etc., and this is driving the mortality rate down by people getting infected gets infected with initially smaller doses of the virus. (Certainly not an expert, it just seems to make sense to me.) However, I think that the main driver of COVID deaths are the number of infections, and that we had WAY higher numbers in the "first wave" than the charts would suggest. We just don't see it in the data because of the lack of testing. In all countries, including my own (Norway). PS: Sweden is often used as an example of "letting the virus do what it does and wait for herd immunity". It's just not that simple. While we here in Norway was in more or less lockdown for a period, at times, Sweden has imposed equal and even more stringent measures than Norway, and still have about 20x the deaths with 2x the population. And herd immunity seems still to be a long way down the road.
  • JA
    Jordan A.
    29 September 2020 @ 00:31
    Well well well Peter Schiff was right all along.
    • DS
      David S.
      29 September 2020 @ 21:37
      If you say the same thing over and over, you may be correct sometimes. DLS
    • WG
      Wade G.
      30 September 2020 @ 12:13
      Worst single voice I ever listened to in my investment experience. Schiff was running around with his hair on fire b4 GFC talking about the imminent destruction of the dollar. I know for a fact he put his investors into all sorts of Australian and other foreign currency dividend paying and distribution paying companies, many of which went to zero. He's an ass hat who has never been honest about his profound mistakes. The fact that you'd call it now, that he's even right now, shows a lazy and caviler attitude. This video puts forth a thesis consistent w/ Schiff''s dollar bearish view. I'm pretty open to the thesis, but it hasn't even panned out yet. My advice is run from Schiff.
  • AS
    Alan S.
    29 September 2020 @ 05:35
    Love the video. Got 2 questions actually the first is a quibble - your promo text for it says Julian argues that "the biggest effects from Covid-19 are not course-altering changes, but rather the acceleration of the inevitable." In fact, Julian repeatedly talks of this being "an inflection point" - course-altering is exactly what an inflection point is! 2) Julian lays out the most optimistic scenario, in which a few months from now the world realises that Covid has killed off the most vulnerable in society and the survivors are covered by herd immunity, in which case Covid is behind us - yet his long-term forecast is that the dollar still dives, so he recommends getting into commodities and foreign stocks if this is the most optimistic scenario for Covid, what is he forecasting if Covid persists? I shudder to think!
    • WG
      Wade G.
      30 September 2020 @ 12:02
      On your first point, I believe the confusion relates to his standing view ahead of Covid. I think he was in agreement w/ Raoul that US economy was weakening and the trends he discusses were in place, which would lead to the policy responses, some of which we've already seen. Thus he was expecting the inflection point, and Covid expedited it, or sealed its fate. Remember Raoul made a fortune short euordollar futures... I think Julian was in agreement on that trade. Not an upgraded member but thats my take.
  • BH
    Bernard H.
    30 September 2020 @ 05:12
    Thanks Julian. Top drawer
  • KJ
    Kjell J.
    29 September 2020 @ 12:42
    @ 26:20 remaining in the video Julian says we recommended buying the S&P 500 at 2600. I have looked back at the spring Flash Updates and do not see that Trade recommendation anywhere. Can someone at RV please clarify this as this statement does not appear to be factual. Otherwise the Video was excellent and well worth watching as is provides a logical view of the next few quarters.
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      29 September 2020 @ 21:01
      Hello Kjell, I reached out to Julian and this was for his MI2 clients which is a much pricier institutional service. When he says "my clients" or "we recommended" this is what he means. “A weekly close above 2650, which would get us back above the bullish trendline from the 2009 lows and also, more importantly, the 200-week moving average, would suggest that scenario has legs” ie a move to at least 2900” (“MI2 Trader: Pending Trades” 6th April).
    • MO
      Mary O.
      29 September 2020 @ 21:18
      He also said he exited much of his silver position in August at $29, impressive feat given SLV top ticked at $27.39.....
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      29 September 2020 @ 23:31
      Most professionals quote and trade silver futures which peaked out over 29.
  • WS
    William S.
    29 September 2020 @ 23:27
    Watched 2x - so much info to catch...awesome presentation..
  • TM
    Tyler M.
    29 September 2020 @ 21:05
    Excellent. Thanks for doing this, Julian.
  • MM
    Melvyn M.
    29 September 2020 @ 19:11
    Hi Julian, thank you kindly for you insightful Marco thesis. I have have to say you have made numerous calls which have played out with uncanny precision. Since this piece was filmed, gold and silver made what appear to be important $1850 & $ 21.70 lows respectively, is it still your view silver will bottom at c.$20?
  • DS
    David S.
    28 September 2020 @ 20:57
    I am seriously happy that the death rate from COVID-19 is going down. I think it has a lot more to do with the younger population becoming a larger percentage of the infected population along with better treatments. Herd immunity is always a nice idea, but Stockholm is still less than 10%. I noticed that North and South Dakoda testing show above 25% positive rate for those tested. This is a huge percentage if accurate. This will test the hypothesis of 20% reaching herd immunity for COVID-19. (I prefer not to be part of a 20% herd.) The vaccine is still the best way to get herd immunity. My hope is on the vaccine being mostly available by April 2021 per Dr. Fauci. DLS
    • BR
      Brian R.
      28 September 2020 @ 21:48
      the point is, how does this affect financial outcomes? no one wants COVID, no one wants to spread it etc, but I don't want to lose money on fear. How do u think it will play out financially?
    • RM
      Robert M.
      29 September 2020 @ 00:11
      To answer Brian's question from my perspective in Nashville, you are going to see certain industries hit as we do today until a vaccine is available or the disease becomes less deadly. Personally believe we are a long way from herd immunity, particularly when you consider that many people lose immunity over several months. In Nashville, the entertainment business is getting hammered. From tourists to live performances, it will be hard to see these rebound until things become better. Some in music industry are already concerned about losing the summer of 2021 for performances. Believe airlines and cruise lines will struggle for some time though airlines will come back sooner. Hotels will continue to struggle with lack of demand, facilitated by a cutback in corporate travel. Per Yelp, looks like 20% of restaurants may go out of business, but believe people will start heading back out to eat sooner than later. Commercial construction will see a big downturn as architects are seeing a large decline in biz and they are a leading indicator. The biggest issue will be the over-indebted businesses and their ability to recapitalize or will we hit the insolvency period Raoul discusses. If we see a sharp increase in bankruptcies, it will then push the economic discussion from Covid to one of dealing with a true recession.
    • DS
      David S.
      29 September 2020 @ 17:41
      Brian R. - It is reasonable to believe that governments all over the world will print enormous amount of money to save citizens and prime economies. For now, I see government, corporate and personal debt increasing rapidly – nothing new. I see world savings declining rapidly to pay for current expenses. I cannot predict how these funds will flow through the investment world. For now, I am keeping my head down trying not to lose the money. I have some small positions in long-dated options to have some skin in the game. I wish I could predict the markets for both of us, but I cannot. Resiliency is the key word. DLS
  • LO
    Luke O.
    29 September 2020 @ 17:22
    How can there be inflation with so many more unemployed people? I don't mean in assets but in everyday consumables. People were often at their spending limits pre-covid and now they have to pay more for what they were consuming before. In many cases, there literally isn't the money to support rising prices. How is this wrong?
  • SS
    Stephen S.
    29 September 2020 @ 17:18
    Great stuff
  • EC
    Earl C.
    29 September 2020 @ 16:09
    FYI Carter the socialist was the 1st president to require unemployed workers to pay taxes on their unemployment compensation & also invoked Taft-Hartley https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1978/03/07/president-invokes-Taft-Hartley-act/27a103ed-6f58-41c6-bfac-48e65f1ee7aa/ . Guess he was left of the next Dem. president by a gnats wing width
    • LF
      Liam F.
      29 September 2020 @ 16:31
      If Biden's a Socialist, this would mean that the current crop of Republicans are Fascist.
  • JE
    J E.
    29 September 2020 @ 16:24
    mind-blowing. The generosity of this video is not lost on this Essential subscriber! Thank you
  • jk
    johan k.
    29 September 2020 @ 11:53
    Great. So BANG stocks (undervalued to FANG), Australian gold miners, Bitcoin, Chinese companies listed in Shanghai, Hongkong would be credible investment decisions....
  • Bc
    Bolsa c.
    29 September 2020 @ 11:43
    I don't think many people know what the long term debt cycle is. The only similar period in recent history is the 30's. Expecting parallelisms to the 60's is not accurate. Although consequences were similar (more public intervention), expecting high inflation and rising yields fast is not probable unless the Congress changes the FED's powers to spending powers. Comparing current Covid daily cases to spring's and thinking the herd immunity has been reached definitely is not knowing the number of PCR tests we do now. The number of cases in spring were A LOT MORE than statistics say. Trust me, I'm in Madrid. The forest was not burnt enough. I agree in the long term view. Even that a game changer at the end of 2021 will happen to weak the dollar. But that's a year from now. In that period of time, deflation trade can hurt a lot the current positioning of investors. The Corporate Debt is the real elephant in the room.
  • Nv
    Nick v.
    29 September 2020 @ 11:16
    Brilliant If the Covid view is correct, then you have record stimulus + naturally recovering economy. Bonds will be offered, like never before. If the consensus went down to the woods today, they would be in for a big surprise...
  • FD
    Frank D.
    29 September 2020 @ 10:40
    Julian, on Covid-19, you might want to check out the Christian Drosten Podcasts on NDR. It is in german, but a transcript is posted as well which you could translate.
  • GA
    Gerald A.
    28 September 2020 @ 20:36
    Raoul (the deflationist) vs Julian (the inflationist). i.e. governments can't control the unfolding (deflationist) vs. governments can influence the unfolding (QE for the people...instead of QE to bank reserves, QE monetization of fiscal UBI or equivalent...(inflationist). Two roads diverged in a yellow wood, on different gyres collapsing to the stillpoint of the turning world.
    • he
      hanni e.
      29 September 2020 @ 10:25
      Yeah, I am astonished by these diverging and even fundamentally opposed views, because they have a totally different conception of for example monetary policy and its effects. I personally think JB is on the wrong side here (like he was in a video from a few years ago, when he was predicting rising bond yields and a falling dollar, i think 3 years ago). I am amazed about how self-confidently he's talking about FED liquidity and about its actions losening financial conditions. While saying rising yields represent a tightening of those conditions. The last decades have actually shown that this is NOT the case. And specifically that QE is NOT providing liquidity and NOT losening financial conditions, but doing the exact opposite. There is tons of material out there (I am thinking Jeff Snider and this new guy Steve van Metre) who explain why falling bond yields are a sign of tightening and vice versa. But nice to see the plurality on this platform.
  • AM
    Alastair M.
    29 September 2020 @ 08:06
    Well reasoned and well balanced. The longer term cycle stuff very convincing
  • NB
    Nick B.
    29 September 2020 @ 06:37
    Julian is so clear in his articulation of the coming paradigm shift.
  • TS
    Thomas S.
    29 September 2020 @ 04:11
    Julian has made some great short term calls. Mostly it been the same, short dollar, relation,commodities, EM, when he gets excited. This result is banking on a lot of of government stimulus and the Fed probably doing illegal debt monetization. Might happen this way, but....
  • AI
    Andras I.
    29 September 2020 @ 03:46
    Strongest trend of 2020: the commodisation of RV content.
  • MD
    Matt D.
    29 September 2020 @ 02:44
    Thanks Julian. Brilliant. One thing I like is the fact that it is very objective. Often hard to do (for most). Out of curiosity, is the key that stops the model you use at the end of 2021-early 2022 relevant, or just the model. It is almost a discontinuity, which would more likely be an external event (to the model)? Or is it one of the factors you mentioning which keeps the reflexive strength in the dollar "failing". A lot to ponder. Cheers.
  • KJ
    Kjell J.
    29 September 2020 @ 00:56
    I have been a pro member all of 2020. Julian said they recommended the S&P 500 at 2600. Did I miss this in a flash update because I do not recall this trade/buy recco at all? Could someone please confirm. Thanks, KJ
  • JM
    Jennifer M.
    28 September 2020 @ 17:10
    45minutes to say 2Q2021 will have the easiest comps in modern history and 3Q2021 will have the hardest comps in modern history. I think I have spent too long on Hedgeye because all the rest while well thought out and expertly presented is just fluff which may or may not happen.
    • RM
      Robert M.
      29 September 2020 @ 00:26
      Jennifer, depends on the industry. Most like LOW, HD, and TREX will have tough comparisons to 2Q2020. Can also throw in the grocers like Kroger and consumer staple companies like General Mills, Clorox, and Kraft.
    • LF
      Liam F.
      29 September 2020 @ 00:46
      It's not just Hedgeye, it's also behavioral economics, decision making under uncertainty, and bounded rationality that have twisted my noggin. This is a very well informed thesis that may or may not prove to be: very true | somewhat true | somewhat untrue | very untrue. I'm not saying I have any clue mind you. I'm saying that I'm clueless as to what's going to happen next week let alone next year. But that being said, I do have my probability weighted scenarios.
  • MS
    Michael S.
    28 September 2020 @ 17:56
    Thank you Julian. Your commitment to your body of work in Macro economics, markets and data analysis is really appreciated. I continue to adjust my portfolio with your insights. With regard to Covid-19 which is a novel corona virus, I highly recommend you check out the weekly Covid-19 Podcast by Dr Michael Osterholm from the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. This can be found at www.Cidrap.umn.edu Dr. Osterholm will give you 35 years of experience in “interpreting” data that is currently available on the pandemic. He has been through all the major pandemics in the past 35 years. This is very necessary to get a full understanding of the path of Covid-19 and the implications to our human behavior and response. Very critical to have real experience in interpreting data, This is why listening to Dr. Osterholm is a must at this time.
    • RM
      Robert M.
      29 September 2020 @ 00:23
      Thanks for the recommendation. Appreciate when fellow members recommend good info sources.
  • JT
    Jayne T.
    28 September 2020 @ 23:25
    We have bridges, tunnels and roads failing. We have a failing energy infrastructure (think NYC blackout). We need to get these problems solved and doing so we will help the economy. Let’s go!
  • DL
    D L.
    28 September 2020 @ 22:15
    3rd time listening to this today.... Thanks Julian
  • DB
    David B.
    28 September 2020 @ 22:13
    Great, pragmatic point of view! Thanks Julian.
  • AA
    Aymman A.
    28 September 2020 @ 21:24
    COVID is going away. See post below. 👇 Growth will come back slowly. Unemployment will stay high. Supply chain frictions and trade wars will increase. Inflation will go through the roof! They will do yield curve control. Buy gold and Bitcoin!!! Only logical thing to do. That is what I take from Julian’s excellent presentation.
  • KT
    Ken T.
    28 September 2020 @ 20:52
    Excellent. As others have already said, clear concise and to the point. Thanks Julian.
  • AA
    Aymman A.
    28 September 2020 @ 16:09
    Great, great presentation but Julian any discussion on BTC? Your thesis tells me that Raul is right. The only asset worth investing now is BTC. Agree? Disagree? Any comments?
    • AD
      Antonio D.
      28 September 2020 @ 18:04
      Perhaps, Julian is not in the BTC as a SoV camp. However, I believe you already know the implied answer. If you believe in Gold as an inflation-hedge and alternative to fiat, then BTC plays the same role, in addition to having the improved qualities of divisibility, transportability. Up to you if you want to have both Gold/BTC or be like Raoul and be "irresponsibly long" (which may alternatively be viewed as "rationally long").
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      28 September 2020 @ 20:26
      I believe that Julian's view on BTC is that at some point in time if you HODL, you will be invited by the US Government to share a hole in the ground with a nice friendly gentleman named Bubba, who will call you Shirly... ;)
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    28 September 2020 @ 20:20
    Fantastic. Thank you, Julian. Brilliant stuff.
  • DO
    DIOGO O.
    28 September 2020 @ 12:44
    Excellent, Awesome.... Julian is incredible... OBS: I really would like to see Brent Jonhson reaction to this info...LOL
    • AR
      Alexander R.
      28 September 2020 @ 14:22
      Based on y understanding BJ does not disagree with the concept but rather timing and a pass we take. Deflation is gonna bring bankruptcy in highly indebted sociaty and as a result dollar shortage and Dollar strength. Which will create a positive feedback loop and strengthen the dollar. The BIG question is policy response, the FED would need to print in trillions to bail out the whole system. If they do dollar will collapse but that also will wipe out all the savings in USA and political unrest will bring all system down Now : 1) if Julian right the Fed will print just enough to weaken the dollar and not Sink the boat 2 BJ thinks that Fed track records and complexity of the system will prevent Fed from doing that Ether way : probably Gold and if you udventrious Bitcoin is the place to be US dollar will collapse, just the question of time and a pass it takes All predicted by Austrians : you ether let bubble collapse which to big to fail now Or there is completely currency collapse I personally do not think it is 2021 story
    • JK
      John K.
      28 September 2020 @ 19:10
      @alexandr R. I want to point out the fed can’t print actual money. They can print reserves which the bank then loans out but the bank has to be willing to lend. It’s why the banks have been building excess reserves since 08 because they don’t have the capital or aren’t willing to loan against their excess reserves.
    • JA
      John A.
      28 September 2020 @ 20:03
      I think really the question is will policy response willingly sacrifice the dollar. Much of what Julian discusses is going to require the politics to align with the response. If the wrong combination gets into office and we see the Tea Party show up again and start magically caring about the deficit, then I think Julian would be changing his base case. If they do what Julian says, then I 100% agree with him and will be following his research closely. I don't think we get an answer to that till the election sorts itself out though. But I totally see his base case as being the most probable.
  • SK
    Stephen K.
    28 September 2020 @ 20:02
    Wow Julian.....great job. Clear, concise and logical! Thank you.
  • CD
    Christopher D.
    28 September 2020 @ 19:55
    On the topic of "Has Everything Changed?" Who wrote this late March 2020? "When the social distancing and self-quarantining measures are eventually lifted, as we are already seeing in countries first to face this pandemic like China and South Korea, this unexpected seasonality will lift and we will be left with a world that very much looks like it did a month ago. " Hint: https://www.logicafunds.com/policy-in-a-world-of-pandemics Crazy innit?
  • MA
    Muhammad A.
    28 September 2020 @ 19:36
    Julian is exceptional. Thanks for this expert view.
  • JS
    Jon S.
    28 September 2020 @ 19:30
    What can really see that Julian‘s IQ is well over the highest averages. He is clearly a Genius - one can see how sharp and accurate he elaborates his thoughts and expressed his opinions flawlessly. He makes it simple what it is difficult. His intuition is so developed... A real Profi. Happy for those who can afford the RV Pro. It is worth the price of the portfolio amount justifies. Maybe one day...
  • DL
    Damian L.
    28 September 2020 @ 18:47
    Julian is my favorite. Fantastic content.
  • ND
    Nicole D.
    28 September 2020 @ 18:44
    Thank you Julian, it's always very clarifying to hear your outlook. Much respect to you on previous silver trade and hopefully future ones too! The chartists are saying the same thing in regard to USD, precious metals and commodities. Woo hoo!
  • JK
    John K.
    28 September 2020 @ 18:41
    Julian how do you factor in the feds qe being done through reserves and not dollar into your theory. so the fed paying reserves to banks and bank lending tightening how can inflation come?
  • GR
    Gabriel R.
    28 September 2020 @ 18:12
    Julian- first of all, thank you! I love it when you get us thinking and the way you piece together the way you see the world. It allows us to think about all the potential outcomes and the probabilities of what could occur. I'm curious what instruments people are using to express their view on overseas stocks going higher (EM), should the dollar go lower. I've heard both you and Raoul say that if the dollar goes lower, to buy EM. Buying broad markets? individual stocks? which locations? etc... Any insight you or others have would be appreciated, as we try to learn and prepare for all the potential outcomes of the future.
  • ES
    Edward S.
    28 September 2020 @ 15:26
    Wonderful analysis. Can you please post a PDF of the charts? Thank you.
    • JK
      James K.
      28 September 2020 @ 16:48
      Harry ....Thanks ...Ya was watching GDX that morning, saw it was just about to stop out Julian....I loaded the boat on GDX ....@ $37.35....knowing my stop loss, using Julians, was just a hair away...Never hit it...Thank Julian for me !
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      28 September 2020 @ 17:22
      All charts are included in the PDF transcript
  • AT
    Alun T.
    28 September 2020 @ 16:56
    Wow
  • DS
    David S.
    28 September 2020 @ 16:50
    Great presentation. Always love to hear from Mr. Brigden. The US banks agree that we are heading into an insolvency phase. It is obvious to them and us that they must reduce credit availability. This is not a clandestine move as suggested in video about the banks are going to crash the markets. It is just good business not to loan a great deal of money during an insolvency phase. The key to the market is the amount of money and leverage flowing into the market. I think there is still plenty of money in the prop desks, hedge funds, etc. for a while. We will see. DLS
  • DJ
    D J.
    28 September 2020 @ 16:26
    What do you think about dry bulk?
  • JK
    James K.
    28 September 2020 @ 15:49
    Julian... or anyone ....We were stopped out of Silver ... Correct ... ?
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      28 September 2020 @ 15:53
      Yes. We were stopped in Silver at 23. Rather miraculously survived in GDX by 10 ticks. And also AUD and EUR and DXY I think.
  • DJ
    D J.
    28 September 2020 @ 15:51
    It’s happening.
  • NR
    Nathan R.
    28 September 2020 @ 14:37
    Julian, The questions that stick in my mind are the debt levels relative to the 1960s/70s and the massive chronic un/underemployment. Cash flows increasingly go to debt service and wages are stagnant to down. Rates are low so savings increase/spending drops (a la Japan). With monetary neutered, fiscal flowing into a leaky bucket and transmission unwilling, I see no inflation without a mega debt jubilee. So, exorbitant privilege to hose the RoW combined with first mover advantage to expunge our debts and kill the USD to free up spending, lending and hiring. Where am I wrong?
    • JS
      Jake S.
      28 September 2020 @ 15:43
      I'm in the same boat.
  • MP
    Michel P.
    28 September 2020 @ 15:01
    I have learned a lot with this video. Really impressive how looking at the data, charts, history, correlations leads to a scenario, which then translates into trades and bets. Really mind opening
  • MR
    Michael R.
    28 September 2020 @ 14:58
    Great Job Julian. I assume you're in the Vail Valley from the early cases example, I'm over in Summit. Stay safe neighbor.
  • AT
    Aaron T.
    28 September 2020 @ 13:03
    Holy crap, I learned so much in that video. Thanks heaps!
  • MR
    Marco R.
    28 September 2020 @ 12:34
    Julian is our hero! Would be so great to hear Julian as an essential members once a month ☺️
  • DB
    Dan B.
    28 September 2020 @ 09:58
    Julian is a legend :)
  • PO
    Paul O.
    28 September 2020 @ 09:04
    Julian Brilliant again: extremely thought provoking and thorough. Many thanks. Are you still of the view that Q4 will have a negative CPI... you mentioned -0.75% last month? Cheers.
  • MC
    Mike C.
    28 September 2020 @ 08:36
    Public sector spending tends to target aggregate demand (consumption) which has a very low money multiplier effect on growth. So I am just wondering what your assumptions are regarding the effectiveness of the public sector to allocate capital and create real growth (and what role to do see commercial banks playing in this?). Do you expect banks to start lending again or will they continue to favour creating bank deposits for the federal government instead of the private sector (which would be growth and employment -ve)? You mention reflation but your asset allocation decisions imply stagflation not reflation. Just asking for some clarification. Thanks.