Juliette Declercq’s Biggest Macro Trends

Published on
September 16th, 2020
Duration
34 minutes


Juliette Declercq’s Biggest Macro Trends

The Expert View ·
Featuring Juliette Declercq

Published on: September 16th, 2020 • Duration: 34 minutes

Juliette Declercq, founder of JDI Research, believes that September is shaping up to be the biggest month of the year for macro. Using her basket of tested macro indicators, Declercq helps viewers make sense of the current macro environment and argues that reflation and the recovery are still very much underway. She also breaks down the potential for a more benign second wave of COVID, her current outlook for both fiscal and monetary stimulus, and a few trades and assets that she likes in the current environment. Filmed on September 11, 2020.

Comments

Transcript

  • FW
    Francis W.
    17 September 2020 @ 16:28
    Am a BIG Declercq fan. Listen whenever she speaks about macro. What a waste of opportunity taking all of this time for her to opine on the virus.
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      18 September 2020 @ 19:51
      It took up a proportional amount of time in her report. Her thesis is contingent on a less lethal second wave and no returns to lockdown over the winter.
  • BA
    Bruce A.
    18 September 2020 @ 01:03
    https://www.macrovoices.com/podcasts-collection/macrovoices-podcasts and here is Juliette's just released MacroVoices podcast
    • BA
      Bruce A.
      18 September 2020 @ 01:05
      https://www.macrovoices.com/889-macrovoices-237-juliette-declercq-u-s-election-outlook-u-s-dollar-real-yields-and-more here is the direct link
  • DS
    David S.
    17 September 2020 @ 19:38
    If this is a recovery from a normal business cycle recession, then Ms. Declercq’ s standard recovery indicators are meaningful. If this is the end of a debt super cycle coupled with a pandemic recovery, Ms. Declercq's standard recovery indicators are not meaningful. DLS
  • Nv
    Nick v.
    17 September 2020 @ 09:54
    Great interview I would however be blown away if the combination of a overweight position (BAML), in a record high US equity % of world equities (BAML GFMS), goes smoothly, during the most divisive US election in decades (Pew Research), in an environment of gamma (Nomura) If the Dollar is structurally weak (agreed) and inflation is a risk, then own Value > Growth and RoW > US equities
  • DS
    David S.
    16 September 2020 @ 18:58
    Ms. Declercq: ”Firstly, we're coming out, or not, of COVID.” Certainly, this is a simple binary. Where is the analysis if we do not come out of COVID Times? My analysis is anecdotal. We have no in-depth economic data on a pandemic's effects on a modern economy. We are on a sugar high from all the stimulus around the world and the grand leap in market liquidity from behind the veil. It is a simple truth that the countries like Taiwan, who handled the virus well can come back faster than countries in the West. Small businesses are the real backbone of the US economy. How many are closed, broke, out of business after repeated lock downs? How many of their employees are out of work and must live off fiscal policy. From the beginning Mr. Bennington spoke about small businesses in NYC boarded up and Mr. Pal warned about subsequent insolvencies. The young, the rich, mobile can flee. How long will it be before there are plays being performed on Broadway? When will the airlines that survive be able to pay taxes to the federal, state, and local governments? How does an airline survive while losing 90% passenger load for months – loss carry forwards may be forever? Can great companies like Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, etc. make up the tax revenue lost at the federal, state, and local level in the US? Can the highly inflated market save all the pension funds from lowering payouts or bankruptcy? When I speak to friends, I can see the worry in their faces. How much money will the US government need to print under either post-election administration? How can a country torn apart by knee-jerk populism on the left and right work together to forge a new economy – this is not just a US problem? Are we going to debate again the sun circling the earth or the earth circling the sun? Do we need an inquisition to help us through? How many more rolling lock downs will continue to devastate people’s lives? In COVID Times there are twin devastations to deal with – medical and economic. Policies need to deal with COVID equally on both fronts. Privileging one over the over results in failure of the other or both. There will be economies during and after COVID Times, but 2021 will not be back to normal. COVID Times are not done. The recovery from worldwide lock downs, especially in the West, will leave many more economic victims in its wake than any business-cycle recession. We need to define and agree on the issues – medical and economic; develop a plan and implement it together to get through COVID Times with any success. One plan cannot fit all but defining and agreeing on the binary issues – medial and economic - should be universal. We started behind the eight ball. This will not be easy. Good Luck. DLS
    • PP
      Patrick P.
      17 September 2020 @ 02:01
      David ... Please try using paragraphs when you write. A paragraph is a series of sentences that are organized and coherent, and are all related to a single topic. Almost every piece of writing you do that is longer than a few sentences should be organized into paragraphs. ... Paragraphs can contain many different kinds of information.
    • DS
      David S.
      17 September 2020 @ 06:46
      Patrick P. - I will try. My mind reflects better in a stream of consciousness. In literary criticism, stream of consciousness is a narrative mode or method that attempts "to depict the multitudinous thoughts and feelings which pass through the mind" of a narrator. In this manner I seem to get closer to the anxiety I feel about COVID Times. It is even worse now that I am 74 and deep into Proust. Although I would like to inform, my major reason for writing is to come to grips with my thoughts and feelings in a world that feels in chaos to me. Given my condition, I will try to reorganize my thoughts in a more linear fashion before commenting. I do appreciate your efforts in helping me to address this audience and not just self refection. DLS
  • gg
    gurdeep g.
    16 September 2020 @ 21:02
    Super intelligent and ( however irrelevant) beautiful. Thank you RV
    • gg
      gurdeep g.
      17 September 2020 @ 06:26
      Gotta love the Joe Rogan crowd
  • JM
    John M.
    17 September 2020 @ 05:17
    No mention of gold in asset outlooks? I assume she is positive on gold given her expectation of negative real rates?
  • SS
    Stefano S.
    17 September 2020 @ 05:10
    low yields and multiple expansion... very insightful ...
  • MD
    Matt D.
    17 September 2020 @ 03:49
    Thanks Juliette, Appreciate your insights and especially hearing a European/French view on the virus. We (Australia - well some states) are going full-1984 which is shameful.
  • JC
    Julian C.
    16 September 2020 @ 21:58
    I follow many of the most respected fintweet macro commentators. I find JD’s narrative troubling because it seems to me to be uncompromising whereas I am used to more nuanced narratives. Fundamentally I struggle to reconcile her view with the covid ravaged world I see around me. Maybe this is just the Wall Street/Main Street chasm that is the new norm. Can the way out of this covid crisis be so simple? I would love to think so but it seems implausible from where we are today. Like I say, very troubling. Irrespective it’s great to hear a contrarian view from a very serious person. Thank you.
    • RM
      Robert M.
      17 September 2020 @ 01:56
      I am not sure how any economist can make a projection for 2021 based on ISM numbers right now. We know the 2nd and 3rd quarter economic numbers are both negative and positive to the extremes and one would think the 4th quarter will be more balanced for analysis. Forbearance is still in effect on both rents and loans and will impact numbers in 2021. And then in today's daily briefing, the discussion on the closing of small businesses does conflict with a prediction of a strong rebound on the economy.
  • BA
    Bruce A.
    17 September 2020 @ 00:31
    Juliette looks, sees and takes a position. She really is one of the best macro analysts around today. She's had a great track record the last few years including her switch in late Feb from Buy equities to hard negative (Sell) on what she saw as certainty that governments would go hard lock down after she made calls to top hospital officials in France. Refer to MacroVoices interview: https://www.macrovoices.com/podcasts-collection/macrovoices-all-stars-podcasts/804-all-stars-96-juliette-declercq-how-to-trade-the-covid19-crisis Then in the May MacroVoices interview she discusses the coordination of fiscal and monetary and the possible path to avoid deflation and insolvency, pushing real rates very negative and reflating cash flows and gdp. She called for a V shaped recovery in assets and new highs for equities even while economy followed a U shape recovery: as long as governments do enough fiscal support. https://www.macrovoices.com/podcasts-collection/macrovoices-all-stars-podcasts/848-all-stars-105-juliette-declercq
  • DS
    David S.
    16 September 2020 @ 07:55
    It is rare that I disagree with a forecast so much. This economy is a candle in the wind. It will come back but not this year. DLS
    • PB
      Patrick B.
      16 September 2020 @ 11:05
      Thanks for putting your initials each time mate
    • JA
      John A.
      16 September 2020 @ 14:01
      She could be proven right, but i tend to agree with you. The data points they are looking at are being taken at face value when we don't know exactly how manufacturing was disrupted. Between fiscal stimulus driving consumer spending as a one off and manufacturing inventories out of wack because of an inability to forecast future demand, i am not sure we can trust the numbers we are seeing. The risk of external factors being a disruptor here really need to be taken into account. I feel the bean counter types that just look at their momentum data are ignoring all of the fires around them and just assume it will all work out neatly. And history tends to show that in order for politicians to fix something, they need to first let it break enough for the people to accept the heavy handed solution. The solution doesn't tend to come before the crisis has finished playing out and people are screaming for it. We shall see. But until the need for fiscal and monetary manipulation has passed, I am not sure we can continue to look at ISM and PMI numbers in isolation.
    • DW
      Daniel W.
      16 September 2020 @ 14:26
      I totally agree, but I have to admit that whenever her and my view were contradictory, she ended up being right. I am short EUR vs USD here.
    • JA
      John A.
      16 September 2020 @ 22:15
      Was long UUP for a while, had to get out of that position. Got too painful. I've toyed with getting back in, but right now we seem to be locked in this range. I have a straddle currently as a volatility play since I think vol will wind up being expressed in the currencies with all of this manipulation going on.
  • IS
    Ionel S.
    16 September 2020 @ 22:08
    FYI : US has a shrinking real yield advantage over its peers of about +50 bp when you blend them toghether using the weight they have in DXY Index. Japanese 10 Year real yields are -28 bp, they are not positive at all! Bonus: 10 year real yields are rising in Germany as inflation printed negative in August... Sell the Dollar at your own risk!
  • lf
    liam f.
    16 September 2020 @ 20:46
    Good analysis. The 2nd wave is the largest virtually every pandemic in history so there is some major speculation at play here though.
  • TL
    Timothy L.
    16 September 2020 @ 09:12
    Juliette is one of my favorite macro strategists. So rational but incredible at weaving the data together to get to the heart of the real narrative. She often goes against the grain well in advance and is often proven right. She doesn’t do too many interviews and her service isn’t that affordable for small retail traders so always awesome to get some insights into her thoughts!
    • CJ
      Christopher J.
      16 September 2020 @ 14:01
      Totally agree. Been following her for one year and she seems to get it right. Big fan of her macro framework and wish we could see more often than once a quarter!
    • DS
      David S.
      16 September 2020 @ 19:43
      I agree she does a great job on economic macro. I feel she is misreading pandemic macro. DLS
  • RY
    Roy Y.
    16 September 2020 @ 14:21
    Please upload the dollar chart ... Thank you.
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      16 September 2020 @ 14:48
      I have her entire report and there is no dollar chart to accompany her view. I would also add that many of our contributors like Juliette make their living selling research and do not always give away the entire selection of the charts in their reports, especially if it was published recently. I think this is perfectly reasonable and fair to both Real Vision subscribers and their paid customers who are often paying thousands to tens of thousands of dollars for the same insight you are getting a piece of here for a fraction of the price.
    • DS
      David S.
      16 September 2020 @ 19:40
      I think she said she would submit her dollar chart to RVTV. You could check with her. DLS
  • ES
    Edward S.
    16 September 2020 @ 15:37
    Wonderful presentation. Would it be possible for Juliette to post all her charts, especially the Covid 19 chart? Thank you.
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      16 September 2020 @ 16:03
      All charts which will be available to Real Vision subscribers are included in the video and in the transcript.
  • OT
    Omar T.
    16 September 2020 @ 12:33
    Dollar chart?
  • AT
    Adelina T.
    16 September 2020 @ 11:05
    Good one! Looking for the charts she mentioned a couple of times... when will they be added?
    • mg
      michael g.
      16 September 2020 @ 12:19
      They are on the video.
  • GH
    Garrett H.
    16 September 2020 @ 11:49
    Juliette is always very data-driven, but I think the macro data obfuscates a lot of underlying realities. The monetary/fiscal stimulus + lockdowns ending are the primary reasons the macro indicators bounced back, but there are still a lot of pockets of insolvency where the fiscal couldn't reach. Questions that I'd like to have asked: - If fiscal ends and banks don't want to continue credit expansion what happens? - If fiscal continues forever what happens to currencies and market distortions (as we move towards state-planned economies)? - If real interest rates rise what happens? - If the millions who are now barely living off state unemployment checks notice the asset holders have gotten richer what happens? - What if moratoriums wear off for the millions without cash flows and landlords start evicting and debt collectors start knocking?
  • DO
    DIOGO O.
    16 September 2020 @ 11:43
    Fantastic Analyst! Juliette cheers!
  • TC
    Taige C.
    16 September 2020 @ 09:01
    Great presenation!