Am a BIG Declercq fan. Listen whenever she speaks about macro. What a waste of opportunity taking all of this time for her to opine on the virus.

https://www.macrovoices.com/podcasts-collection/macrovoices-podcasts and here is Juliette's just released MacroVoices podcast

If this is a recovery from a normal business cycle recession, then Ms. Declercq’ s standard recovery indicators are meaningful. If this is the end of a debt super cycle coupled with a pandemic recovery, Ms. Declercq's standard recovery indicators are not meaningful. DLS

Great interview I would however be blown away if the combination of a overweight position (BAML), in a record high US equity % of world equities (BAML GFMS), goes smoothly, during the most divisive US election in decades (Pew Research), in an environment of gamma (Nomura) If the Dollar is structurally weak (agreed) and inflation is a risk, then own Value > Growth and RoW > US equities

Ms. Declercq: ”Firstly, we're coming out, or not, of COVID.” Certainly, this is a simple binary. Where is the analysis if we do not come out of COVID Times? My analysis is anecdotal. We have no in-depth economic data on a pandemic's effects on a modern economy. We are on a sugar high from all the stimulus around the world and the grand leap in market liquidity from behind the veil. It is a simple truth that the countries like Taiwan, who handled the virus well can come back faster than countries in the West. Small businesses are the real backbone of the US economy. How many are closed, broke, out of business after repeated lock downs? How many of their employees are out of work and must live off fiscal policy. From the beginning Mr. Bennington spoke about small businesses in NYC boarded up and Mr. Pal warned about subsequent insolvencies. The young, the rich, mobile can flee. How long will it be before there are plays being performed on Broadway? When will the airlines that survive be able to pay taxes to the federal, state, and local governments? How does an airline survive while losing 90% passenger load for months – loss carry forwards may be forever? Can great companies like Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, etc. make up the tax revenue lost at the federal, state, and local level in the US? Can the highly inflated market save all the pension funds from lowering payouts or bankruptcy? When I speak to friends, I can see the worry in their faces. How much money will the US government need to print under either post-election administration? How can a country torn apart by knee-jerk populism on the left and right work together to forge a new economy – this is not just a US problem? Are we going to debate again the sun circling the earth or the earth circling the sun? Do we need an inquisition to help us through? How many more rolling lock downs will continue to devastate people’s lives? In COVID Times there are twin devastations to deal with – medical and economic. Policies need to deal with COVID equally on both fronts. Privileging one over the over results in failure of the other or both. There will be economies during and after COVID Times, but 2021 will not be back to normal. COVID Times are not done. The recovery from worldwide lock downs, especially in the West, will leave many more economic victims in its wake than any business-cycle recession. We need to define and agree on the issues – medical and economic; develop a plan and implement it together to get through COVID Times with any success. One plan cannot fit all but defining and agreeing on the binary issues – medial and economic - should be universal. We started behind the eight ball. This will not be easy. Good Luck. DLS

Super intelligent and ( however irrelevant) beautiful. Thank you RV

No mention of gold in asset outlooks? I assume she is positive on gold given her expectation of negative real rates?

low yields and multiple expansion... very insightful ...

Thanks Juliette, Appreciate your insights and especially hearing a European/French view on the virus. We (Australia - well some states) are going full-1984 which is shameful.

I follow many of the most respected fintweet macro commentators. I find JD’s narrative troubling because it seems to me to be uncompromising whereas I am used to more nuanced narratives. Fundamentally I struggle to reconcile her view with the covid ravaged world I see around me. Maybe this is just the Wall Street/Main Street chasm that is the new norm. Can the way out of this covid crisis be so simple? I would love to think so but it seems implausible from where we are today. Like I say, very troubling. Irrespective it’s great to hear a contrarian view from a very serious person. Thank you.

Juliette looks, sees and takes a position. She really is one of the best macro analysts around today. She's had a great track record the last few years including her switch in late Feb from Buy equities to hard negative (Sell) on what she saw as certainty that governments would go hard lock down after she made calls to top hospital officials in France. Refer to MacroVoices interview: https://www.macrovoices.com/podcasts-collection/macrovoices-all-stars-podcasts/804-all-stars-96-juliette-declercq-how-to-trade-the-covid19-crisis Then in the May MacroVoices interview she discusses the coordination of fiscal and monetary and the possible path to avoid deflation and insolvency, pushing real rates very negative and reflating cash flows and gdp. She called for a V shaped recovery in assets and new highs for equities even while economy followed a U shape recovery: as long as governments do enough fiscal support. https://www.macrovoices.com/podcasts-collection/macrovoices-all-stars-podcasts/848-all-stars-105-juliette-declercq

It is rare that I disagree with a forecast so much. This economy is a candle in the wind. It will come back but not this year. DLS

FYI : US has a shrinking real yield advantage over its peers of about +50 bp when you blend them toghether using the weight they have in DXY Index. Japanese 10 Year real yields are -28 bp, they are not positive at all! Bonus: 10 year real yields are rising in Germany as inflation printed negative in August... Sell the Dollar at your own risk!

Good analysis. The 2nd wave is the largest virtually every pandemic in history so there is some major speculation at play here though.

Juliette is one of my favorite macro strategists. So rational but incredible at weaving the data together to get to the heart of the real narrative. She often goes against the grain well in advance and is often proven right. She doesn’t do too many interviews and her service isn’t that affordable for small retail traders so always awesome to get some insights into her thoughts!

Please upload the dollar chart ... Thank you.

Wonderful presentation. Would it be possible for Juliette to post all her charts, especially the Covid 19 chart? Thank you.

Dollar chart?

Good one! Looking for the charts she mentioned a couple of times... when will they be added?

Juliette is always very data-driven, but I think the macro data obfuscates a lot of underlying realities. The monetary/fiscal stimulus + lockdowns ending are the primary reasons the macro indicators bounced back, but there are still a lot of pockets of insolvency where the fiscal couldn't reach. Questions that I'd like to have asked: - If fiscal ends and banks don't want to continue credit expansion what happens? - If fiscal continues forever what happens to currencies and market distortions (as we move towards state-planned economies)? - If real interest rates rise what happens? - If the millions who are now barely living off state unemployment checks notice the asset holders have gotten richer what happens? - What if moratoriums wear off for the millions without cash flows and landlords start evicting and debt collectors start knocking?

Fantastic Analyst! Juliette cheers!

Great presenation!