Long Shorts – Finding Asymmetric Upside

Published on
November 4th, 2019
Duration
25 minutes

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34

Long Shorts – Finding Asymmetric Upside

The Expert View ·
Featuring Harris Kupperman

Published on: November 4th, 2019 • Duration: 25 minutes

Harris Kupperman, founder and president of Praetorian Capital, presents his views on investing in a potentially recessionary environment and what he describes as a heavily saturated stock market. Kupperman doesn't pull any punches addressing the Silicon Valley venture capital space, calling the mantra of growth over profit, "Ponzi finance." He reveals his process for a "long/short" approach and details several of his recent plays — including beaten down shipping stocks, for-profit colleges, and uranium mines. He also explains why investors are passing on otherwise solid industrials and energy stocks - pointing out to the excessive stock growth of large tech companies, which he comically calls "ESG." Filmed October 9, 2019 in New York.

Comments

Transcript

  • JK
    James K.
    23 January 2020 @ 00:21
    0 0
    Two quick questions. Are you buying the STNG dip? And what happens to ASPS revenue if NRZ goes belly up? Trying to figure out how this plays out.
  • js
    john s.
    12 January 2020 @ 21:51
    0 0
    Rounded you off to 600 likes Kuppy
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    7 November 2019 @ 09:01
    0 0
    This was fantastic. big fan of Kuppy and his blog. He has the intonation of a Looney Tunes character. Can’t figure out which one. I love it.
  • JL
    James L.
    4 November 2019 @ 08:12
    1 22
    Wonderful video. Pls stop reading the headlines.
    • RH
      Robert H.
      4 November 2019 @ 11:57
      21 0
      Please keep reading the headlines. Many (most?) download the audio and listen while commuting, and the headlines add vital context.
    • AB
      Alain B.
      4 November 2019 @ 12:41
      9 4
      Please make the voice more human.
    • RC
      Ronald C.
      4 November 2019 @ 15:58
      1 5
      Hate the bot reading questions. Have the interviewee read their own questions
    • JS
      Johannes S.
      6 November 2019 @ 06:38
      1 0
      Definitely KEEP the voice reading the headlines. It’s crucial when listening as audio only!
    • SC
      Sejong C.
      7 November 2019 @ 08:46
      0 0
      Please read the headlines. Also, reading the summary at the end, rather than the music, will be a plus.
  • JC
    John C.
    6 November 2019 @ 20:00
    1 0
    Great interview. Everyone should read his blog posts including the recent one on the coming Miami RE implosion
  • DD
    Dmitry D.
    6 November 2019 @ 15:26
    3 0
    Wow, this is an awesome interview! Great thinking and insight + perfect delivery! Hope to see Kuppy back soon!
  • ET
    Eduard T.
    6 November 2019 @ 11:25
    3 0
    Great interview! Love your take on ESG - couldn't agree more!
  • SG
    Sven G.
    5 November 2019 @ 20:27
    5 0
    Kuppy is a new straight talking investor to put on my small list of people to pay attention to. Thanks for sharing your views :D
    • JS
      Johannes S.
      6 November 2019 @ 06:33
      2 0
      Who else is on your list? Need more names like this to follow!
  • DP
    D P.
    6 November 2019 @ 03:31
    1 0
    Clear thinker. Love his blog. Highly recommended.
  • JM
    J M.
    6 November 2019 @ 02:21
    2 0
    Really well done Kuppy- always enjoy watching/listening to your views! Hopefully can chat some shipping on RV soon- cheers!
  • GG
    Gary G.
    5 November 2019 @ 23:35
    1 0
    Keep it coming!!
  • JK
    John K.
    5 November 2019 @ 04:21
    2 0
    Love the way he picks things that are already beat down. Buying low is way more important than selling high.
    • HK
      Harris K. | Contributor
      5 November 2019 @ 23:05
      15 0
      The easiest/lowest risk money in investing is figuring out when something goes from hopelessly fuct to sorta shitty...
  • MC
    Michael C.
    5 November 2019 @ 10:29
    8 0
    Great to see Kuppy on RV. His blog is fantastic (https://adventuresincapitalism.com).. Lots of great ideas - they won't all work but lots to think about. And keeping it simple. So refreshing.
    • HK
      Harris K. | Contributor
      5 November 2019 @ 23:04
      1 0
      Thanks
  • MZ
    Matthew Z.
    5 November 2019 @ 15:34
    3 0
    Hey Kuppy - do you like the shipping industry enough to just add an index (SEA for example) to a diversified portfolio?
    • HK
      Harris K. | Contributor
      5 November 2019 @ 23:04
      6 0
      Stick to individual names. Lots of bad players in shipping
  • dm
    david m.
    5 November 2019 @ 18:39
    2 0
    I talked to an ESG analyst that works for S&P. He reluctantly admitted its marketing ploy.
  • RS
    Richard S.
    5 November 2019 @ 18:32
    2 0
    Excellent interview. Clear concise contrarian thinking.
  • JL
    James L.
    5 November 2019 @ 12:08
    4 0
    good call on ESG
  • DP
    Daniel P.
    5 November 2019 @ 09:12
    0 0
    Spelling error on the graphic at 3:35. Altisource - not Alitsource.
  • AD
    A D.
    5 November 2019 @ 02:55
    3 0
    What a smart guy and quick thinker (and talker). For the first time in my RV viewing history I could use a --2X button. Solution for a dummy like me- listen to this rapid-fire gem twice. Thanks, RV! Thanks, Kuppy!
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    4 November 2019 @ 14:53
    6 10
    Interesting and insightful in places, but completely wrong about one small yet important fact: a liberal arts education may be economically less sexy in the short term, but the lack of this kind of deeper, broad-based training in critical thinking and systems thinking is precisely why our world is so fucked up right now IMO (pardon my French). Cheers.
    • JD
      John D.
      5 November 2019 @ 02:49
      6 0
      I think you are missing Kuppy's point. He is more talking about vocational skills training in specific practical areas that, ST, makes you more employable - e.g. nursing and welding were Kuppy's examples.
  • JJ
    Jesse J.
    5 November 2019 @ 00:47
    0 0
    So this was eye opening to me. The methodolgy and thought that has been put into the work is great. It's exactly what I have been trying to put into order in my own mind but haven't yet gained the experience to understand fully how things balance. The simplicity of it all just kind of clicks though. Less competition = more demand. Less supply = more demand. Basic economics playing out on several fronts and levels at the same time. I still don't grasp the complexity of it fully the way a professional does but I greatly enjoyed the learning and insight.
  • SU
    Shakeel U.
    4 November 2019 @ 22:54
    0 0
    Excellent 😀
  • KA
    Kevin A.
    4 November 2019 @ 21:13
    2 0
    Lot of fun things to look at...thanks
  • AS
    Anthony S.
    4 November 2019 @ 20:29
    7 0
    Great stuff, calls it like it is and gives you plenty of ideas--thanks Kuppy!
  • TR
    Thomas R.
    4 November 2019 @ 19:55
    4 0
    Haha, Scorpio is one of my best performers! But I will certainly look into the other suggestions. I love it when stuff makes sense!
  • MM
    Michael M.
    4 November 2019 @ 15:55
    3 0
    Is this the same Harris Kupperman of Mongolia Growth Group?
    • ND
      Nadine D.
      4 November 2019 @ 16:50
      0 0
      Yes
    • MM
      Michael M.
      4 November 2019 @ 19:43
      1 0
      He didn't mention Mongolian Growth once, Wonder why?
  • WB
    Wesley B.
    4 November 2019 @ 16:58
    5 0
    Kuppy is great. His blog is a must read and every time he opens his mouth there is value add. In 25 minutes he gave you dozens of ways to make money.
  • FG
    Flavio G.
    4 November 2019 @ 12:47
    7 0
    I think you messed the chart by confusing COSCO with COSTCO
    • TN
      Tyler N. | Real Vision
      4 November 2019 @ 16:52
      1 0
      Thanks Flavio- New Chart is up now.
  • BB
    Bart B.
    4 November 2019 @ 16:04
    1 0
    Kuppy is great. I follow his blog. https://adventuresincapitalism.com/ Invite him back.
  • EF
    Erik F.
    4 November 2019 @ 15:31
    3 0
    One of the top interviews on Real Vision! KISS!
  • VP
    Vincent P.
    4 November 2019 @ 13:47
    4 0
    Excellent!
  • TS
    Taranvir S.
    4 November 2019 @ 13:28
    24 0
    Now this is what you call investing. Theme-based, evidence-packed, well-built theses. Need more of this on RV
  • ns
    niall s.
    4 November 2019 @ 12:43
    2 0
    More of Cubby plz.
  • Nv
    Nick v.
    4 November 2019 @ 12:32
    2 0
    Great interview Wrong Costco chart
  • CB
    Clifford B.
    4 November 2019 @ 12:10
    0 2
    Agree on keep it simple however disagree on the Softbank thesis. Yes they are exposed to we work and uber which are burning cash by the tonne etc but this is only through vision fund. they also own shares in alibaba, sprint, and others. That aside very few are bullish on the equity market as a whole and I tend to agree with his overall perspective.
  • TJ
    Terry J.
    4 November 2019 @ 12:00
    0 0
    Loved Cubby's KISS thesis! Refreshingly different insights! Top guy!
  • SN
    Scott N.
    4 November 2019 @ 11:13
    4 0
    Gotta love Kuppy! Short to the point. And incredible way of thinking.
  • DV
    Didier V.
    4 November 2019 @ 08:32
    0 0
    Nice!
  • SR
    Steve R.
    4 November 2019 @ 08:27
    5 0
    Keep it simple - couldn't agree more! In fact having followed many so-called smart investors for a great many years, its the ones who think in simple terms who have been the most successful. And I've noticed this in life more generally too. As a personal observation, I think there will be a gradual move towards simplicity over (largely) unnecessary complexity that adds little or no value.
  • EL
    Eric L.
    4 November 2019 @ 08:25
    1 0
    The content shared is good and insightful. Thanks.

Chapters

  1. 00:01:14
    How is the World Shifting?
  2. 00:01:46
    What is your long/short thesis?
  3. 00:02:21
    What are you seeing in the bond market?
  4. 00:03:01
    What are long/short trades - can you give a few examples?
  5. 00:05:16
    Talk about the prospects in the for-profit education industry
  6. 00:06:27
    What is your view on the discounting industry?
  7. 00:07:01
    What is your outlook on the shipping sector?
  8. 00:10:22
    What is IMO 2020?
  9. 00:12:23
    What is your perspective on SoftBank specifically - and venture capital more broadly?
  10. 00:13:57
    How do you play "Ponzi Finance?
  11. 00:16:03
    What are your thoughts on ESG?
  12. 00:18:50
    What is interesting about Greece’s recent growth?
  13. 00:20:56
    How likely is a major fiscal policy response from governments to a financial crisis?
  14. 00:22:16
    How are you playing the current macro environment?
  15. 00:23:07
    What's your conclusion?