Comments
Transcript
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CSwhy so many downvotes, i thought this was a short and sweet talk.
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MBSeems to be saying the total opposite of everyone else in relation to shorting the USD
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JWI thought this was very interesting.
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NRThe downvote ratio in this video is ridiculous, the insights delivered don't deserve such high number of downvotes. The devolution of the RV audience is accelerating.
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MFI thought it was a good interview. Yes, it was a view and selling a product, but I think that is fine. In fact, RV should have a section where products (research, quant, etc) are explained and offered. That is actually an added value to have exposure to additional products. Provided its indicated upfront, no harm no foul. I thought it was interesting and I think product sales are fine..just indicate that ex-ante (and even encourage it with a specific category that RV subscribers can click into).
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AKI do not understand the criticism here. I like the insight from Mahmood a lot. I also think a lot of people need to understand the difference between a guest wishing to show how their product works and paid content. Mahmood obviously is keen to show that hey have a great product/service, if he was not interested in this it would be outright wired. To assume that a seller oriented guests equals paid appearances by Real Vision is just kind of lackluster in intelligence.
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JHInteresting video, this shows value of using data in a well understood and structured way. Busy earning my stripes in statistics and data science, so when I see or hear 'r squared' in a finance setting I first think 'spurious regression' or 'p hacking.' This method seems to be quite effective at identifying regime shifts, which are known to notoriously destroy inferences quite quickly. Would be interesting to hear more about users of this kind of methodology and their findings so far.
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MWOne of our core principles here at Real Vision is to give viewers a peak behind the curtain. QI is something that your counterparty may have access too. This video is meant to make viewers think about whether they incorporate similar analysis into their own trade construction and to give a chance to see how professional macro investors and traders combine quantitative analysis with their macro outlook. My takeaway is that QI and tools like it are being used by hedge funds and asset allocators as an extra level of due diligence and as a risk management tool. This is just one example the level of rigor that is going into their portfolio and trade construction. I know I'm not testing all of my trades for their macro exposure, but it is nice to know that this is what I'm up against and what I can aspire to add to my process.
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MCInteresting peek under the hood. AUDJPY 97% model confidence. Very telling. Thanks Max and Mahmood.
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HHlol this video was great, lots of haters
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spthe guy asking the questions is incredibly annoying.
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JLWow I sure want to pay for Macro Insights now-
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JCDid we just watch the result of a custom video shot by RV for QI to help them get 100k organic views with no kitten in sight??
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AmWas this a paid promotion?
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BFThank you Sir!! Very Interesting insight! I'm definitely learning!!! GREAT JOB AGAIN MR NOORANI AND REAL VISION!!
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MBGuys, Please don’t regurgitate second hand news read from other people and then get it wrong through a lack of primary effort. RV is way better than that, you have built a fabulous reputation but this is how to destroy it in an instant, plus as concerned as you maybe about keeping your respective hair styles “tight” I would prefer some “tight financial analysis”. For your information the release from lock down and related optimism in Europe means so far for the most part that you can now go to the Park, or visit small shops one person at a time..... If either of you think that this represent a return to Economic growth with a mass return to work and a resumption of normal economic activity then try limiting that to a figure of perhaps a 15 – 20% improvement from the absolute worst position but so far NOTHING more.... Sorry you did nothing more than spread misinformation today and it needs to be pointed out... Lets have real information.. In depth analysis on the Credit Card defaults and how that plays out historically looking forward 6 12 months. How car payments and Auto loan defaults are going through the roof with the impact on new autos due to lost residuals, crash in used car values... Impacts on auto parts companies...... Apologies but todays briefing wasn’t a briefing it was a ramble.... and in many respects a shambles.... Sorry to be harsh but I really like what you do when its good because its great but that also highlights the contrast when its not.... Better tomorrow please.
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NGReally appreciate you guys putting the interview dates back in the descriptions! Love it and huge help!
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ILPlease bring back my time!!! Worst “expert” ever. Worst Expert View ever!
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DP"Central banks are not involved in direct FX intervention." The Fed has $60 billion dollar FX swap lines open to central banks all over the world. They've already issued over $400 billion worth. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SWPT
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PJWho's the guy with the camp voice at the end of the video?
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GLInteresting insight. The problem with these multi-factor models is that they do great in less volatile and trending markets when people don't really need to rely on them to know what is going on and how to place trades and/or make money. They tend not to do particularly well at all in volatile markets like these where 'regimes' and correlations are shifting all the time and tend to converge - giving nonsensical signals - just when investors are desperate for clarity from a quant tool such as this. I would even argue that in a world of greater CB intervention (i.e. more zombie markets), these type of factor models are going to become significantly less useful. And on the long EURUSD trade - not sure about that at all and would probably ignore all conventional modelling on that particular cross...
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AWSo far, ECB has monetized about a quarter of what the Fed has, and yet we've seen no big dislocation of the DXY. However, Europe is as screwed as the rest of the world. So dollar shortages have thus far compensated for the Fed doing more than the ECB. What happens when the ECB finally catches up? Have to make a choice based on believability and logic, and I think RP has it.
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TESo Mahmood, you are short GBP/EUR?
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RMHis approach is similar to Hedgeye. Could have used some more specific stocks and how affected by the macro factors.
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ddTHIS IS NOTHING BUT AN INFOMERCIAL, USELESS
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AmPlease bring back Daniel oliver of myrmican capital if possible. His insights brings me and many others tremendous value.
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SSHonestly - this was the worst interview I've seen on RV this year and possibly, ever.
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nsRight view , wrong trade , nuff said.
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AKRaoul says long USDEUR, this bloke says long EURUSD. So basically we're all F**ked lol
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tcdoes he have the answer to the question “will you have the right trade?”
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RAThis is advertising....not an expert view!
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BFare they saying that teh GBP will likely Fall against the Euro? i would think the opposite considering the Euro crisis unfolding?
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EOSounds a bit like a promo of the speaker's tool. :))) On that note, do they offer any free trial for RealVision users?
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DNKinda gets to the theme from MG saying that CERTAIN prices are not set via fundamentals, and more via "something else" (be it market structure, spot flows, hedging flows, systematic strategies etc). I guess running this tool gives you some sense of which prices in the market are driven by the "something else" - giving you a way to screen what is still fundamental driven vs what is increasingly not.
Chapters
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Bringing Math Back to Macro
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Regime Breakdown: Setting the Stage for Volatility
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Identifying the Current Regime
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What are The Biggest Themes Clients Are Asking You to Test For?
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Finding Pure Macro Trades
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The Current Regime in Europe
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Understanding Debt Monetization and Fiscal Expansion as Macro Factors
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With Bond Markets Distorted By Central Banks, Where Are the Best Macro Trades?
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Is Sterling vs. Euro Potentially the Better Trade?
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Summary and Takeaways