30:03

EssentialThe Expert View

Modeling the Next Recession

Featuring Tian Yang

Feb 03, 2020 • 30 minutes

Essential

The Expert View

Modeling the Next Recession

When will the next US recession begin and how might investors foresee its arrival? Tian Yang breaks down his model for detecting the signals.

384

44

Featuring Tian Yang

Feb 03, 2020 • 30 minutes

When will the next US recession begin — and how might investors foresee its arrival? Tian Yang, Head of Research at Variant Perception, breaks down his model for detecting the signals that a significant decline in economic activity is imminent. Yang explains how his framework differs from traditional, longer-term econometric forecasting models and walks through his process using historical data. Using the data series, Yang unpacks how unrevised leading economic indicators can telegraph regime "jumps" and the role of uncertainty caused by reflexivity or positive feedback loops. Filmed on January 22, 2020 in London. You can find the attached report from Variant Perception here- http://variantperception.com/realvision

Show More

Subject-matter experts offer in-depth analysis of global investment risk and opportunity. Expert View probes the top minds from relevant fields, offering critical insights into every corner of financial markets.

More Episodes

Subject-matter experts offer in-depth analysis of global investment risk and opportunity. Expert View probes the top minds from relevant fields, offering critical insights into every corner of financial markets.

More Episodes

COMMENTS

Sort By
  • Newest First
  • Oldest First
  • Top Rated
  • Most Discussed
  • Most Controversial

Access Essential Content

This content is reserved for the thousands of visionaries supporting the financial revolution. We'd love for you to join us. Interested?

See Our Plans

Already have an account? Log In