Navigating 2020’s Monetary Disorder

Published on
January 1st, 2020
Duration
24 minutes


Navigating 2020’s Monetary Disorder

The Expert View ·
Featuring James Grant

Published on: January 1st, 2020 • Duration: 24 minutes

Jim Grant kicks off 2020 with a look forward to the coming year. Usually, Grant asks the questions, but today he provides his answers to questions around the 2020 presidential election and the force of gravity that extreme monetary policy has on financial markets. Grant addresses the problems facing Uber and WeWork, provides commentary on his disagreement with the Fed's understanding of money and markets, and explains whether the Fed will be able to normalize rates. Filmed on November 6, 2019 in New York.

Comments

Transcript

  • MF
    M F.
    14 January 2020 @ 14:04
    Simply put, a gem of a man.
  • DS
    David S.
    1 January 2020 @ 21:25
    I agree that Uber could not have been developed without cheap money. It is built on two ideas: the internet of things for the company and incremental income for the drivers. When and if interest normalize Uber can still be successful. The stock price will adjust, but that's life. Uber's bigger threat is everyone else getting into its business. DLS
    • JC
      John C.
      8 January 2020 @ 03:56
      Uber was built on cheap money from mostly foreign capital (Saudis and Chinese) that had to go somewhere and found a home in a VC unicorn. Not really any 'moat' for the business, has unlimited competition (Lyft, Bolt, taxis etc. etc) and once their funding dries up it will be yet another unicorn disaster.
    • JC
      John C.
      8 January 2020 @ 03:58
      Also to add to my comment below, as usual the public government are a real roadblock as you're seeing in places like Chicago where they just added a $3 ride fee to Uber/Lyft out of nowwhere, or other cities globally where these services are outright banned.
  • JB
    Jason B.
    2 January 2020 @ 09:23
    Jim Grant did not mention how the taxi businesses in many local cities and metro areas in the US were government protected monopolies prior to disruption from Uber, Lyft, etc.
    • MS
      Michael S.
      3 January 2020 @ 02:45
      And yet, there were no taxi billionaires.
    • JC
      John C.
      8 January 2020 @ 03:54
      Uber is essentially a Silicon Valley scam that is unprofitable (to say the least) and was founded on cheap (dirty) money from Saudi and China (mainly via Softbank). They contract out employees and do not provide benefits, and in other parts of the world hire illegals to do the driving. Recent safety issues have not been kind to Uber and their driver vetting is suspect. One has to ask oneself is Uber providing a differentiated business with a real moat and profitable business model, or just burning through cheap cash raised in a now very suspect industry (VC) that has been allowed to thrive due to low interest rates and the lack of other investible ideas?
  • JC
    John C.
    8 January 2020 @ 03:33
    "We live in a time of fictitious wealth" Nailed it. Jim is always a great interview.
  • MF
    Michael F.
    5 January 2020 @ 22:40
    Jim Grant's interviews are amazing. Wonderful insight. He is also a great interviewer of other people in the financial space. Keep them coming.
  • MF
    Michael F.
    5 January 2020 @ 22:40
    Jim Grant's interviews are amazing. Wonderful insight. He is also a great interviewer of other people in the financial space. Keep them coming.
  • WB
    William B.
    2 January 2020 @ 19:31
    I am just smart enough to realize how smart Jim Grant is. He has a historical perspective that is very rare. Putting the current situation into historical perspective makes one realize that conditions weren't always like today, and they might change. Please, RealVision, let Jim Grant be free to express his views. Don't just limit Jim to interviewing other people.
    • NI
      Nate I.
      5 January 2020 @ 03:41
      100%
  • RG
    Roman G.
    3 January 2020 @ 22:19
    I'd love to see a Jim Grant/Peter Schiff conversation.
    • PP
      Patrick P.
      4 January 2020 @ 14:33
      Grant/Schiff agree on far more than they disagree.....
    • NI
      Nate I.
      5 January 2020 @ 03:40
      They would be in agreement, but Jim is far more humble (aka wise) on timing.
  • NI
    Nate I.
    5 January 2020 @ 03:30
    Jim Grant is terrific. He offers a wealth of knowledge. The Lord Liverpool quote is perfect for the 2020 state of affairs. Keep it coming Jim. My $0.02. Buy gold. “The tendency of an inconvertible paper money is to create fictitious wealth, bubbles, which by their bursting, produce inconvenience.” -Lord Liverpool May 26, 1818
  • DB
    Dylan B.
    4 January 2020 @ 18:55
    I absolutely love this interview with Jim Grant. One of the greatest minds in finance.
  • AH
    Andreas H.
    2 January 2020 @ 18:08
    I like the video, bc it educates me. But: As a trader it does not help me. There are a lot of traders / investors bashing the fed and they keep out of the market (or worse short it) bc they think its all rigged. Of cause its rigged! There is not one market that is not (HF Traders that have co-location of their servers is also rigged, prop shops that have acess to blind pools, alternative data etc. etc.) Short the stock market or not beeing in the market bc. I do not like the fed? Are we politicans or are we traders / investors that try to find the tailwinds and headwinds or put a rigged market into our profit! We all know the fed has put a bid under the market since at least Jan. 2019 and an even much bigger bid with "no QE". And even an atomic bid since they said they do not care about inflation anymore (they will let if overshoot). They are monster dovish! I trade the rigged market in my favor (e.g. beeing agressively long since 2011!). Yes, inflation will come, well then I trade Gold stocks, looking forward to it! Analyse it yes, understand if there is a bid of the fed in the market. But if you found out, then go to action and trade it and make money!
    • PP
      P P.
      3 January 2020 @ 22:10
      Agreed. Like you I am tired of people blaming fed. Our job is to play with cards that we are dealt with. I am sure a crash will come but expecting that every year and blaming fed is becoming tiring.
    • PP
      Patrick P.
      4 January 2020 @ 15:10
      Andreas... The GDX beat the SPY last year...and I believe it will happen again in 2020. This is all about financial lunacy. There is no political will for financial sanity... Gravity will win IMO.
  • TJ
    Terrence J.
    3 January 2020 @ 23:51
    Jim Grant as the new Fed head, let’s bring common sense and sanity back into the market place, real price discovery instead for just dumping trillions $ down a black hole never to be seen again.
  • HO
    H2 O.
    3 January 2020 @ 21:35
    Whiles I am a beggar, I will rail and say there is no sin but to be rich; and being rich, my virtue then shall be to say there is no vice but beggary.
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    3 January 2020 @ 19:54
    Superb. Jim’s eloquence is rare. His irrepressible wit, very entertaining. I loved this. Please give Jim more chances to expound his views vs. just interviewing. He is indeed a national treasure.
  • JW
    J W.
    2 January 2020 @ 08:41
    "very short sighted to load up on these bonds that yield less than the rate of inflation" - if I interpret this correctly it's a somewhat contrarian view to Sri-Kumar and others who are advising to go (stay) long 10 Yr and 20 Yr Bonds (although nobody said 'load up' :-). I guess diversify remains an essential part of the game in this unpredictable environment; Crypto, Metals, Stocks, US T Bonds, Real Estate & Cash.
    • MH
      Martin H.
      3 January 2020 @ 00:25
      I will take the path you didn't mention.
  • DS
    Dan S.
    2 January 2020 @ 22:26
    I would love to have a drink with Jim and discuss the madness.
  • TW
    Thorne W.
    2 January 2020 @ 21:36
    Jim Grant is a national treasure, like the parks. Both speak the truth.
  • JV
    James V.
    2 January 2020 @ 18:14
    Jim Grant is a national treasure. Great way to start the New Year. Thank you, Real Vision.
  • CC
    Casey C.
    2 January 2020 @ 15:11
    One of a kind. What an asset to all of us. Love Jim's candor and style. If only those at the Fed would find it within themselves to listen to Jim and understand his real world, common sense view of things, we and, most importantly, our kids and kids kids would all be much better off.
  • TC
    Thomas C.
    2 January 2020 @ 15:03
    In general I would like to hear way more RV guests asked about their PERSONAL portfolio's. Especially the analysts and newsletter writer guests. How do they have all their wealth allocated right now? Maybe put a pie chart up at the end of every video like the bullet pointed summaries.
  • je
    james e.
    1 January 2020 @ 20:03
    What I would pay to know Jim's portfolio. Can we get a glimpse of where he is invested? His command of the english language and history is brilliant. Simply great to hear from Jim in any context.
    • MK
      Michael K.
      2 January 2020 @ 14:31
      He does publish arguably the most successful and revered newsletter, grants interest rate observer, he doesn’t quite lay out a portfolio but there’s trade ideas every issue. The quote is “thinking required” so it’s not going to be timing signals.
  • HK
    H K.
    2 January 2020 @ 10:19
    Love it how Jim Grant articulates his views
  • TN
    Tim N.
    2 January 2020 @ 08:15
    "Prices discovered, are better than prices imposed" Such a great one liner. Simple, elegant and profound. Thank you RV and Jim Grant :):)
  • GE
    Glenn E.
    1 January 2020 @ 22:56
    good interview. Thanks real vission
  • NL
    Nikola L.
    1 January 2020 @ 22:52
    the segment if FED can normalize rates got me thinking about Oz - lol if RBA hikes twice 1/2 of the country will go broke. Second highest private debt in the world.
  • DS
    David S.
    1 January 2020 @ 21:31
    It is important to note that the Fed's and other central banks easy money policies are the direct result of Wall Street's melt down in 2008. The original QE should have been followed by infrastructure build by the government - money into the economy. Eventually the easy money era will be over when CBs cannot stop the a market meltdown as markets normalize. For this I am in the gold camp with Mr. Grant. DLS
  • JH
    Joseph H.
    1 January 2020 @ 19:42
    As good as it gets. If the data on DQYDJ.com is accurate we just wrapped up a two-decade stretch in which SPY returned 5.62% per year with divi's reinvested, gross of fees and taxes. The inside joke is that low interest rates have produced dismal returns, sky high deficits, lofty multiples, and a whole lot of inconvenience. With more to come.
  • TD
    Thomas D.
    1 January 2020 @ 18:32
    Every time I listen to Mr. Grant I want more.
  • RV
    Real V.
    1 January 2020 @ 17:07
    Love this guy. Thank you mr. Grant.
  • WM
    Will M.
    1 January 2020 @ 16:35
    Great segment from Jim. The quasi quote was almost spot on: Lord Liverpool, in his House of Lords speech of May 26, 1818 regarding the return to the gold standard said: “The tendency of an inconvertible paper money is to create fictitious wealth, bubbles, which by their bursting, produce inconvenience.” What a wonderful observation from long ago. There is truly nothing new under the sun. We Work has already generated "inconvenience", Uber will shortly follow and soon after Tesla. If the Fed can't continue to keep interest rates down, they will indeed rise, the European Sovereign debt market will collapse in panic as traders desperately try to exit from negative rate "assets" and money will flee Europe for....... the dollar, albeit until the system implodes......"inconveniently".
  • MB
    Michael B.
    1 January 2020 @ 12:06
    A good perspective to get people thinking in this new year Thanks Jim for sharing