Anyone know where I can view the steepening of the contango on oil? Looking for something like vixcentral.com but for oil.

Does anyone in here have an opinion on the exit strategy for the tanker stocks? I am up 20-40% on most of them.. Just want to be realistic in profit taking. Thanks for any ideas on this

Since the index doesn't replicate the right thing here, I am just buying a basket myself. I'd go for ones that have a large % of their assets in VLCCs and ULCCs o/w a high % should be spot charters. I've identified FRO INSW EURN DHT as the best suited. FRO - new fleet av. 4 yrs, great management, highly levered and high premium to asset value, high EV per DWT. INSW - av. 8y old fleet, trading at discount, half the leverage of FRO, good management, "cheap" valuation based on negative EPS in the past, but I think this company is gonna take-off and is very well positioned. Debt restructured and significantly reduced EURN - similar to INSW with better opearing performance and EPS figures historically, imminent debt maturities though, trading somewhere inbetween FRO and INSW DHT - trading similiar to EURN, bit more debt, pure VLCC fleet similar age as EURN (8 years), stable historic earnings Nordic American only has Suez Max's. Mila is too diversified. LPG is mainly gas. Teekay too diversified. DSSI vessels are too small. The following are too small or too diversified: Tsakos, SFL, Kawasaki Kisen, China Cosco, Scorpio. OSG too risky.

Can someone play the devils advocate and explain what is the worst case scenario for this trade?

Answer: 8 stocks - EURO, TNK, FRO, NAT, DHT, INSW, STNG, DSSI April 6 well worth the read: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4336308-nordic-american-tankers-limited-first-half-of-2020-will-be-blowout

After much time and research, I'm a reluctant convert. Two solid observations: 1) Oil demand has plummeted at previously inconceivable levels; likely lower by 10-20 million bbd for at least 2-3 more months by everyone's accounts. Then, demand doesn't come back to 2019 levels for at LEAST 1 year 2) Joe public doesn't understand that SUPPLY cannot suddenly switch to match lower demand numbers. Too much inertia. Corps have hedged millions of barrels at $50+ and so will happily keep churning it out. Cash strapped corps will take $10/barrel rather than zero cash flow and breach debt covenants; sovereigns still need to pump to keep economies running and populace placated. Expect plenty of tweets and headlines that attempt to raise oil $. No doubt, MBS and Putin will quickly say they'll reduce supply. It'll work for a week or 2. But they can't do it hard, or fast, enough. Only: which stocks to put in your 'basket'?

This guy is extremely arrogant. Really enjoyed his perspective on covid re not being conducive to playing golf, flying private jet

Has your view on this trade changed after the announced production cuts from Russia and Saudia Arabia?

waiting for the market selloff to go into these.

Just wondering, did the solution for complaints that video take too much time to get release, is just removing the filmed date ? Could we know when this was filmed ?

Dry bulk rates have plummeted due to the Covid-19's impact on trade. If prolonged quarantine is not priced in, dry bulk rates would decrease further as demand is further contained. Unfortunately non-oil shipping was not covered in this video. Is this a threat to the investment thesis?

According to this article written 20th March, the oil price is not quite low enough to make this work yet: “We’ve heard numbers of $18 - $25m…to charter a VLCC for one year,” and then added: “That would equate to $9 per barrel to $12 per barrel on a 2m barrel VLCC…the current contango curve on Brent oil, is around $10 per barrale on a 12 month basis.” What this means is that the lines are only beginning to cross; floating storage is on the cusp of becoming economical. https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/tankers/oil-prices-vlccs-and-floating-storage

OSG FRO STNG TK TKG. Any one have a ranking of these ?

Phenomenal interview with incredible points and observations by both. I do wish I had a better grasp on the probabilities of deflation or inflation.

This is crazy.. eg SAGA Tankers has a estimated P/E at 0,14 and P/B at 0,64 atm....,

I don't think Vitol and Glencore will give away all the contango trade for two reasons: 1. they own their own fleet and 2 the way it works you pay a storage fee to hold crude in the vessel. Other cost he didnt talk about is the cost of holding the oil. You need Balance sheet, difference is that this time compared to 2008, apart from Macquarie no other bank will hold oil on the water. So financing is going to be a big deal here, Vitol and Glencore and not going to hold oil on the water just using their own equity - unless they can make over 20% which is their internal cost of fund (for equity usage).

BDRY is dry shipping. What basket is he talking about for oil? Or is he thinking that old dry shipping boats can somehow be repurposed quickly to store oil? Confused.

BDRY chart shown. It is an ETF with a portfolio of dry bulk freight futures. Its price has tanked (pun intended). How is this at all related to companies who lease their tankers for oil storage?

Teekay Tankers (TNK)

Love this guy's chutzpah. Very entertaining guest.

It is just funny to hear that: How will US shale oil producers be impacted?...Right??? We can print money in America--........and we end up just gaining market share. But that's a long process. They'll send my tankers to Pluto.

My selection of VLCC play stocks for now: DSSI, INSW, EURN Indirect: DHT If you have any better ideas to add on diversification, please add them :)

Truly excellent 17 minutes - thanks a lot

I wish he had talked about the price of oil from here, not just storage problems. But the inference would be oil should fall in price.

I wonder does anyone know if chemical tankers could be pressed into service to store oil when the fees go sky high? A quick google reveals that the differences between oil and chemical tankers are not too huge but I’m ignorant of the requirements really. They wouldn’t need to be actually transporting the oil so a country like Russia could ease regulatory requirements to get the job done. Aren’t they under pressure to avoid having to close their pipeline? Converting sounds a bit extreme but from what I can see it can be done and amazing things happen when there are hundreds of millions to be made, so I expect this could act as a longer term ceiling on the fees.

I like the way this guy talks and thinks.

loved it.

Great interview, but the guest is missing lots of items such as VLCC's being locked in prior to the rate surge, billing in ton-miles not in tons. https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/crude-tanker-stocks-plunge-as-rates-hit-record-highs/

I find this thesis amazingly compelling. Not sure that it is right, but highly interesting. I had previously moved some money into tankers, continued moving into more today.

Im enjoying all the recent oil views. More please!

If peak surplus is in 150 days time, and we're going to awash in 2 Billion barrels of oil, wouldn't selling Oct Crude at $32 be a better trade?

Why BDRY? Dry bulk isn't the same as oil... are there any oil tanker ETFs?

Harris is right about the tanker market. What I'm interested in now with tankers is how the High Sulphur Fuel costs are going to be impacted vs the Very Low Sulphur fuel for tankers going forward. Whether refineries will change production once the economies come back online collapsing spread or not. (Im long a few Tanker companies because I just cant get over the comps and return while everything is in a bear market)

Great interview, but the guest is missing lots of items such as VLCC's being locked in prior to the rate surge, billing in ton-miles not in tons. https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/crude-tanker-stocks-plunge-as-rates-hit-record-highs/

Kuppy always a great interview.

TKN

Oh yes and of course due to the slowdown, there should be surplus supply of empty chemical tankers.

More Kuppy! Always more Kuppy.

More from Harris please! Not only does the oil sector not get enough exclusive focus on RV (I know there is a lot to cover these days!), but he's good old fashioned entertaining and charismatic.

Great presentation, but you've used a chart of dry bulk shipping (13:40) which has no relation to the tanker market.