Praying for a Miracle: Coronavirus’ Black Swan Risk

Published on
March 6th, 2020
Duration
32 minutes


Praying for a Miracle: Coronavirus’ Black Swan Risk

The Expert View ·
Featuring Raoul Pal

Published on: March 6th, 2020 • Duration: 32 minutes

Will the coronavirus cause the everything bubble to pop, trigger a global economic depression, and be the impetus for major systemic changes? Raoul Pal of Global Macro Investor argues that the current coronavirus outbreak could be the "biggest economic event of our lifetimes." He reveals his analysis of the real risks presented by the coronavirus outbreak and the ensuing response for people, markets, and institutions. He compares the COVID-19 outbreak to the Spanish Flu from a century ago – pointing out the important similarities and differences. He connects his doom loop thesis to the Black Swan risk that coronavirus represents to the indexification of markets, the coming retirement crisis, and the everything bubble. Finally, he shares his thoughts on the impact a global event could have on gold and cryptocurrencies and shares his hope for a better future born of the COVID-19 chaos. Filmed on March 4, 2020 in New York.

Comments

Transcript

  • SK
    Samuel K.
    15 July 2020 @ 11:26
    Good to watch this again from a July perspective.
  • jl
    jarron l.
    6 April 2020 @ 07:01
    Absolutely love you Raoul, one of the most insightful people I've listened to speak
  • AB
    Adeel B.
    18 March 2020 @ 23:36
    12 days later.....its a lot worse WE R STUFFED!
  • SS
    Steven S.
    15 March 2020 @ 01:12
    quick update: many currently expect 20-60% of the US population infected using fairly well-established models. Mortality rates are estimated to be in the 1-3% range in the US. Expect to still see significant numbers of cases in the US in May. Most familiar with the US medical system anticipate hospitals to be overrun, compromising the treatment of ICU-bound COVID cases and others requiring treatment for unrelated conditions/events. This has been a clear failure of the US public healthcare infrastructure. China's draconian actions bought us time, but very little was accomplished. Even the switch of CDC funds previously allocated to influenza to SARS-CoV-2 took weeks due to regulatory red tape. I don't know if this will be the straw the breaks the camel's back with regard to the global economy, but that seems like a real possibility from my vantage point.
  • DB
    Darko B.
    12 March 2020 @ 05:50
    Raoul, you've taken the negativity to a whole new level here mate. Less than 3500 people are dead at time of my post. Italy alone lost almost 14k people in 2017 to the flu. This is despite the Wuhan flu sweeping through one of the most densely populated places on earth. Your call of up to 68m dead is bonkers. We have better medical and understanding of how to avoid getting sick. We have better communication so we can act in unison...ie all stay home for a couple of weeks. We will also have a vaccine fairly quickly, and the Spanish flu went for almost 3 years. Sounds like you need to take some magnesium citrate my friend, and chillout a bit. The mortality rate is a joke, at best, pushed by those idiots at the WHO. It's impossible to know the real infection rate because some people have a very mild onset. They don't go to the doctor, and many others just stay at home. What we're likely seeing is the serious onset infection rate, but hundreds of millions more could have it or passed it around with mild symptoms. This is a WAY overblown, just like pretty much everything else is these days.
    • AM
      Aaron M.
      13 March 2020 @ 12:28
      This 2017 was an entire year. COVID-19 has just started. Cases will peak in the USA in May/June. A primer on exponential growth: Month 1: 1000 cases Month 2: 80k cases Month 3: 64 million cases (Mid May)
  • AF
    Antonio F.
    13 March 2020 @ 11:23
    This video made sure I got out of my portfolio in time and spared me a lot of pain. What I am interested in knowing now is when to get back in the market. Today European markets are already rebounding from yesterday and perhaps US could do the same. Is today a good day to re-enter or do you think this will play out over a longer period of time and its best to wait?
  • KL
    Kerrie L.
    12 March 2020 @ 04:57
    What’s happening with bonds today?!1
  • CT
    Chris T.
    11 March 2020 @ 16:53
    think this video might age badly in terms of doom level... along with the media induced panic in the public Death rate will likely turn out to be well below 1%, symptoms for majority will be negligible and % of population who actually get it will be so low that in hindsight we will wonder why we "panicked". Trust in media will hit new all time low
  • RD
    Ray D.
    10 March 2020 @ 20:43
    would be great if you could add a share button so we can share this video.
  • BG
    Brian G.
    10 March 2020 @ 04:57
    Well that aged well quickly, wow…
  • ns
    nakul s.
    9 March 2020 @ 10:08
    thank you for your thoughts, uve just saved my portfolio. all will Gold be a gd hedge to park funds, why is gold also falling. will be great to have ur thoughts. your videos are excellent, pls keep them coming.
    • DC
      D C.
      10 March 2020 @ 04:18
      Gold is sold off for liquidation purposes as well. Look at '08 and early '09...same issue.
  • HS
    Hernádi S.
    9 March 2020 @ 09:18
    Considering that things started to move holyshit speed, is there a way for Raoul to give a brief weekly update?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      10 March 2020 @ 03:20
      Its in Real Vision Pro...
  • RG
    Robert G.
    8 March 2020 @ 20:20
    Raoul - the OPEC/Russia games with oil prices, just a coinicidence?
    • mw
      michael w.
      9 March 2020 @ 21:54
      None of this is a coincidence.
  • SS
    Steven S.
    8 March 2020 @ 22:16
    Just thought I'd chime in as I'm a medical school professor at a major research university. I'm not a 1918 Spanish influenza expert, but I think it's important to keep in mind that with the 1918 Spanish influenza, 1) a much higher proportion of the population was undernourished compared to today with increased susceptibility to more severe outcomes, 2) public health infrastructure was minimal compared to today, 3) secondary infections (i.e., bacterial infections which take advantage of damaged lung tissue) were likely much more prevalent and very poorly treated, and 4) death rates were markedly different across younger ages compared to COVID-19, presumably due to an increased propensity for cytokine storms with the 1918 influenza strain compared to COVID-19. I think it's important to keep all of these factors in mind when assessing the comparison and the future of this pandemic. Of course, Raoul is certainly correct in the mobility of the populace is dramatically higher now, which will/has been the major component in the increase the spread. I agree with virtually everything in Raoul's video. In my view, it's critically important for rapid Government and public/private healthcare responses. Keep in mind that COVID-19 is an RNA virus. RNA viruses have much higher mutation rates compared to DNA viruses. The timing is disastrous given the extreme asset/ consumer-corporate-sovereign debt bubble we're in. At minimum, this will be the ultimate stress test of the economic system. Don't panic, just be prudent and rational: a couple weeks of stored food, access to water, social distancing if possible (including working remotely), hand washing, full tank of gas, and recognition if you're in a high risk group. The spread is in aerosolized droplets and contact (presumably from mucosal fluid and perhaps fecal transmission). On the plus side, the US is finally ramping up on testing and has engaged with the private sector for manufacturing tests. There will be a flood of testing within two weeks. Similar to 2008, this will reveal weak companies, sectors, institutions, etc. in the economy that were previously unrecognized. Gold, long vol, bitcoin, consumer staples (after more weakness), healthcare (after more weakness), and at some point, I wonder if this will be a buying opportunity for Chinese equities. Although it'll change in a week or two, everything is fairly normal here in the rural Midwest. No run on food or toilet paper as of today ...and I live in a small town where half the residents work at a medical clinic/hospital. My greatest worry is that with the high mutation rate we'll see a COVID-19 strain with higher virulence and/or Ro. This is proportional to the number of individuals infected. This is unlikely, but the consequences could dwarf what we've seen. Hence, extremely rapid and effective responses are incredibly important to mitigate this possibility.
    • TE
      Timothy E.
      9 March 2020 @ 07:03
      Raohul stated that the current death rate is 3.4%. I was under the impression that that figure assumes a working health care system, and if the hospitals are overrun and/or run out of supplies, the death rate will shoot up. Do you think that's true or will the death rate stay around 3.4%?
    • SS
      Steven S.
      9 March 2020 @ 11:54
      Good question. The 3.4% is the mortality rate given that the patient was tested and the test was positive and the patient was likely treated under reasonably good conditions. Clearly, many people are indeed infected but haven’t been tested. So, the mortality rate given that you are infected within a functioning healthcare environment is probably considerably lower than 3.4%. The South Korean values will give us a better sense of the mortality rate if infected and care is within a functioning healthcare setting. If the healthcare system fails, then I would expect that to increase as something like 10-20% of infected cases require hospitalization. There are many complications from severe respiratory infections including secondary infections, cytokine storms, etc. So, more testing will drop the measured mortality rate, but a less effective healthcare system will raise the number.
    • SS
      Steven S.
      9 March 2020 @ 18:28
      Looks like revised mortality estimates are coming in from more population-based screening than just testing severe cases. They are in the 0.7% range. I believe this is still inflated over the best estimates for most strains of seasonal influenza, but substantially lower than the initial estimates (which missed the mild cases).
  • AF
    Andre F.
    6 March 2020 @ 07:29
    Interrupting the video to make this comment: Be careful with the reflexive temptation to compare this Coronavirus with the Spanish Flu of the post WWI era. Nutrition levels were far off during that era due to the mass production and mass consumption of nutrient poor canned food. With weaker immune systems from poorer nutrition we were sitting ducks for the Spanish Flu; is the same thing true today with respect to Coronavirus? We don't know, which is why I said be careful with making this tempting comparison.
    • DF
      Diamantino F.
      6 March 2020 @ 09:36
      Agree that it can’t be compared, if nutrition was a problem then now we have a global cross world which could be a massive problem,
    • DP
      Daniel P.
      6 March 2020 @ 10:07
      I think Raoul answered this in his comment that even with modern medicine the death rates we're seeing are looking potentially similar to Spanish Flu (i.e. the death rates we're measuring today by definition take into account improved nutrition/medicine etc - the only question is how accurate are our current measurements?)
    • WM
      Will M.
      6 March 2020 @ 21:58
      Also remember that most of the 1st world has good nutrition (but not all amongst the poor) but the developing world (most of Asia) and especially the true third world (most of Africa) still have poor and sometimes no nutrition. They will be crushed, governments will fall, loans will be defaulted upon.
    • LS
      Larry S.
      9 March 2020 @ 16:39
      It fascinates me that on CNBC they can declare that the U.S. rate of infection is beginning to fall. Interesting given that test kits are just now making it into distribution so most declared cases may be declared on the basis of clinical presentation without definitive I.D., and this is before even considering that anticdotal reports include the existence of at least two different strains. No labs done - no true Dx, just presumptive dx, also spread begins before symptoms develop possibly including fever. Therefore, no basis for the declaration. Plus except for supportive care no treatment, or vaccine probable for over 1 year. Avoidance is all we have currently. But we are getting a heavy dose of what I consider to be misleading and politically motivated Verbicaine, (feel better language.) I practiced medicine for over 30 years, and am not unfamiliar with epidemiology, (I just can’t spell it.)No I wasn’t there for the Spanish flu, but when I trained the periodic table of elements was fire, earth, air and water. Sorry Raoul, I typed this while you were speaking, I believe you covered this while I was entering it.
  • MK
    Michael K.
    7 March 2020 @ 15:41
    With all due respect, but Raoul‘s numbers (3.4% case fatality rate ) is terribly flawed, based on hearsay, lacks scientific evidence, is not well researched and not put into the right context. The problem roots in the fact that you always find the dead people. However, you will never find all the infected who show only mild symptoms (if any), which is the biggest group by far. Also, it‘s not possible to identify the mildly affected in hindsight. So all these case fatality rate calculations are - bogus. The true number will be substantially watered down and likely much closer to the „regular“ influenza number. This water down effect will only get stronger once you start to account for the (now developing) „herd immunity“ effect. Also, Raoul does not account for „overtaking causation“, a major factor: Every year 2.9m die in the USA, ten thousands of them because of pre-existing conditions and virus infections. This year and the years to come you will be able to associate a lot of these deaths to COVID19, but of what use is that? None. The even if there‘s a couple of thousand more deaths it‘s terrible, yes, but it will hardly put a dent in the statistic; because if these people wouldn‘t have died of COVID19, the would have simply died from another virus infection shortly thereafter anyways (overtaking causation). Take away: Raoul has to research virology, stochastics etc much better to avoid using obviously flawed numbers and to avoid operating with dangerous half-truths. He‘s smarter than that.
    • YB
      Yaj B.
      7 March 2020 @ 17:59
      Good contrary thought and some fact check! However, I think the idea behind the numbers is the Huge Panic which is has already brought and the sell off which we have seen in that one week. You are so right about connecting deaths to COVID19 at the end of the year. However, On the ground today with very little numbers coming out and very little testing done in US, people are not going out to eat, people are cancelling their Holidays, parties, Retail stores are out of santizers and many other essential supplies. Events are being cancelled across the world, schools Universities are getting shut, companies are asking employees to work from home. It's a financial shock and it's going to have a huge impact and in the short term there is not many solutions.
    • DS
      David S.
      7 March 2020 @ 22:19
      Your assertion that patients with mild symptoms is the biggest group by far is as flawed as Raoul's 3-4% fatality rate (or ANY stated fatality rate) as evidenced by your immediately subsequent (and very true) statement that "it‘s not possible to identify the mildly affected in hindsight" (OR EVER). I work in critical care medicine in San Francisco and have stayed very on top of all available data streaming out of the pipeline and one thing that I know for sure is how little anyone knows for sure. Wash your hands very well, don't touch your face... DCS
    • CW
      CC W.
      8 March 2020 @ 07:08
      I agree. I love reading Raoul's report. From the virus and health care impact perspective, I think it is overblown. But does not mean the supply chain and the economy isn't disrupted. It already has since China failed on managing this virus back in Wuhan a few months back. That has a big effect on manufactures inside and outside of China. I know there are factories in Taiwan and Vietnam can't ship goods on-time because they rely on parts from China.
    • WM
      Will M.
      8 March 2020 @ 21:37
      "Globally, about 3.4 percent of reported COVID-19 cases have died,” said WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus at a press briefing Tuesday" Unless you think WHO are not a quality source Michael?
    • MK
      Michael K.
      9 March 2020 @ 12:11
      No it is not Will for the reasons explained, that's exactly the point.
  • wj
    wiktor j.
    9 March 2020 @ 12:05
    Thanks for your thoughts. It seems you have the same thoughts as me.
  • PD
    Pere D.
    9 March 2020 @ 03:16
    Thanks for update Raoul. I’m currently in Hong Kong. I’m a 747 freighter captain. I’m 59 y/o. I’m coming to the end of my career. I was planning to retire in 2021, but I think I need to take a leave of absence when I get back to Wyoming. I do not want to get quarantined somewhere or worse.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      9 March 2020 @ 11:12
      wow. Stay safe.
  • MS
    Matt S.
    7 March 2020 @ 19:34
    So in other words, I couldn't have picked a worse time in history to become a US stock swing trader? FML.
    • SR
      Suds R.
      9 March 2020 @ 10:32
      geez i am feeling that i couldn't have picked a worse time in history to buy my subscription to Real Vision. Ignorance would have been so much better!!!
  • PG
    Pavel G.
    8 March 2020 @ 08:23
    The virus with mortality rate 20% in elder age group may actually affect pension crisis in a certain way. (Brutal, I know).
    • GB
      Glenis B.
      9 March 2020 @ 10:15
      That's for the over 80's. Not sure how the health care system works in US (I'm in NZ) but I thought passed a certain age they are covered by the government? If I'm correct - they'll cost a lot more in their last couple of weeks than the few years they have left so there may not be a net benefit. Regardless, you want people in the 50-70 age group dying off in droves because they'll be the biggest drain. Unfortunately - from your perspective - the mortality rate isn't really high enough. 70-79 years old - 8.0% 60-69 years old - 3.6% 50-59 years old - 1.3%
  • MP
    Mathieu P.
    8 March 2020 @ 13:01
    Hi, would be curious to read more about R and weather, where could you find the approximate R of 1 in Singapore. Thanks
    • TE
      Timothy E.
      9 March 2020 @ 07:09
      Singapore is a weird case, because they have air conditioned metro lines covering the entire (tiny) country, which everyone uses and hardly anyone has a car. Also the country itself is really just a business commerce hub where all the buildings are also air conditioned. There are also a ton of malls in Singapore, and mostly all that people do there is shop and eat, all in air conditioned spaces. So, the virus could only exist in A/C climatized environments and still end up infecting everybody. I wouldn't use it to extrapolate to a place like the USA, etc, where people drive cars everywhere, which, when parked, are left to heat up in the sun, and people don't use A/C as much.
  • SS
    Steven S.
    8 March 2020 @ 23:59
    Just also wanted to say that I thought this was a brilliant analysis of the situation. Again, showing the incredible value of RV.
  • RP
    Raoul P. | Founder
    8 March 2020 @ 12:39
    All - Don't focus on the death rate, focus on the fear...
    • yd
      yon d.
      8 March 2020 @ 19:55
      We need more honest, rational and thoughtful personal perspectives like this. This situation has the possibility to be horrific. Thanks Raoul for this up-close & personal interview with you.
    • WM
      Will M.
      8 March 2020 @ 21:43
      Yes yes yes
    • SS
      Steven S.
      8 March 2020 @ 23:42
      I think we should focus on both. From a finance prospective, the death rate might have a relatively small impact on it's own. Fear will be the predominant factor in a potential severe recession/depression. From a humanitarian prospective, COVID-19 deaths should also worry everyone. Suppose 20% of the world's population becomes infected and the mortality rate is 0.5%, that's over 7M deaths--a major global tragedy and loss in anyone's book. Although the extreme upper end, if 40% of the world's population becomes infected at a 2% mortality rate, that's 56M deaths directly attributable to the virus (in such a scenario, there would also be substantial indirect casualties, which combined with direct deaths would easily rival WW2 ...there are less than 10M cancer deaths worldwide annually). Let's hope it's nothing close to any of these numbers.
  • AP
    Arivarasan P.
    8 March 2020 @ 23:35
    Hi Raohul, Thanks for preparing us for this very situation that is playing out as we speak. Great forward thinking!!! I would love your thoughts on this. What if fed starts buying stocks as they discussed yesterday? Wouldn’t that stabilize the equity prices? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-06/rosengren-says-fed-should-be-able-to-buy-a-wider-range-of-assets
  • TQ
    Tech Q.
    8 March 2020 @ 23:34
    Oil markets have already crashed, thanks to the oil war....markets and futures are already brutal and it's only March 8th
  • JK
    John K.
    7 March 2020 @ 12:45
    I am in Malaysia where it is 33 C everyday. And it is spreading. I don’t think hot weather is panacea. This is very worrisome and if spread continues during summer time in northern hemisphere, global economy will completely shutdown.
    • ML
      Mike L.
      7 March 2020 @ 13:13
      The question is whether the rate is slower than colder regions? And if so, how much slower?
    • SS
      Steven S.
      8 March 2020 @ 22:30
      I haven't gone through the details, but there's a recent paper estimating that COVID-19 transmission is maximized at around 9C. Obviously, in areas that are -20C or -35C (like my town), you get natural self-quarantine. Higher temperatures probably curtail transmission to some extent as well given higher H2O content in the air, moist mucosal membranes, and, perhaps, higher instability of the viral particle.
  • MJ
    Mos J.
    8 March 2020 @ 21:38
    Why isn't anybody talking about the increasing share of recovered vs total cases? Now standing at over 55% at 60k, it was 50% a few days ago etc.. Coronavirus Cases: 109,783 view by country Deaths: 3,802 Recovered: 60,960
    • SS
      Steven S.
      8 March 2020 @ 22:19
      I think this is expected under any outbreak. Eventually, there will be a minimal number of new cases and only deaths and recovered individuals (hopefully, the recovered-to-deaths ratio is very large).
  • GF
    Gordon F.
    7 March 2020 @ 14:58
    Even if the virus were contained tomorrow, we have a large, complex, and elaborate system in which the goods of the world are made and shipped from one country to another, and it is broken. Large complex and elaborate systems are not easily fixed and this one certainly won't be put back just the way it was before. There are reportedly over 100,000 containers per day not being shipped from China. The supply chains those containers would maintain have basically run out. The last containers from before the crisis just arrived perhaps last week. I don't think the economy is going to return to normal anytime soon.
    • WM
      Will M.
      8 March 2020 @ 21:25
      I think many will rethink their China supply restriction very carefully and move at least some production out. Not good news for China. Will likely devalue the Yuan.
  • bc
    bo c.
    7 March 2020 @ 04:12
    wouldn't the central banks buy corporate debt to maintain financial stability?
    • CH
      Charles H.
      7 March 2020 @ 05:26
      They might. That would exchange financial stability for currency instability. Great if you’re owed corporate debt and bad for everyone else.
    • WM
      Will M.
      8 March 2020 @ 21:21
      Buying corporate debt (perhaps even short term notes) was the original intent of the FED when formed. Government later changed that to buying government debt to help with WW1 debt.
  • BE
    B E.
    7 March 2020 @ 03:01
    Here's the thing... I work in hospital supply chain, front lines. Virtually all isolation gowns, and other essential disposable PPE come from China...and they haven't been shipping. US Hospitals are about 30 days from having no disposable PPE whatsoever. They are just realizing this, and are in a full blown panic. Add to this fact that a large portion (60-70%) of surgical drapes/gowns also source from China, and you get the picture. Crisis situation is developing.
    • JM
      John M.
      7 March 2020 @ 05:15
      Its outrageous that such crucial products were outsourced & then outsourced to a single country (incl face masks).
    • DS
      David S.
      7 March 2020 @ 07:05
      I am afraid that it is normal behavior. No one looks at the issue until it becomes a problem. After all MAGA caps came from China first. DLS
    • JO
      Johnny O.
      8 March 2020 @ 19:10
      In addition to masks and gowns, many many drugs and drug ingredients come from China.
    • WM
      Will M.
      8 March 2020 @ 21:19
      I agree BE as I said below, its not the actual sad falsities worry me, its the inability for many to get treatment and for the health workers who will be incredibly stretched trying to help us that worries me.
  • DM
    DJ M.
    7 March 2020 @ 00:16
    Raoul, I have to politely disagree. I understand your fear about the numbers, but I believe that once we test more, we will see more infected, probably, but it does not mean the death rate will increase. I believe the death rate will be much lower-the larger denominator. There may be a crisis in the healthcare system, but I think - and let’s just hope - that it does not all go to hell. I do concur with your fears of a contraction in economic activity leading to a further sell-off of assets, but I’m not sure the effect would be so great as to lead to the doom loop, etc. in the short term. Longer term, we are definitely facing that day of reckoning.
    • NK
      Nick K.
      7 March 2020 @ 03:46
      I think, that the main premise is that the actual death rate won't really matter, the shift to fear now and the way it is reducing easy of trade/spending, in this way, is the trigger. The over-reaction from individuals and government institutions feed the loop of less spending or closing off of markets, for one reason or another. This will light the corporate credit event fuse, because equity funding will disappear after individual investors flee falling markets. What wasn't mentioned, which I believe will be a larger factor in this acute markets reaction, is the role Algo. trading or Index invested capital. Over the last 25 years we have never seen markets so automated or tuned to feed on momentum. it has help sustain the longest bull market, now it will accelerate the destruction.
    • CH
      Charles H.
      7 March 2020 @ 05:31
      It’s not just about the case fatality rate. It’s also a matter of 15% of cases requiring hospitalisation, which will overwhelm the healthcare system. If clinical staff are exhausted or ill and the hospital system begins to break down, the mortality rate will increase among those who might otherwise have survived.
    • WM
      Will M.
      8 March 2020 @ 21:16
      Charles made the real point. I am in my 60s but am not seriously worried about catching and dying. I am more worried about catching and being unable to be treated because there are no hospital beds and no oxygen and possibly a shortage of antibiotics to treat the pneumonia. There are much less than 500k hospital beds in the USA to take these patients (most beds are filled will others hence the lowish number), so a groundswell of elderly or compromised patients couple with health care workers sick will generate PANIC. That is the issue.
  • JP
    John P.
    6 March 2020 @ 22:02
    TLDR: WHO and much of the media is likely way wrong on the death rate but that's not what matters and panic will probably increase short term. The market is already overvalued and heading into recessions so even a less severe COVID could still send things spiraling. The key to understanding the death rate is that you can't look at the aggregate sample, you must look at the most *VALID* sample. Current data don't make sense at face. Why is the US death rate so high? How in the world does Iran have a lower death rate than Italy? The sample needs to have a large enough amount of deaths to not be random chance, but also have validity to testing the total cases. Methodologically, the two best samples are South Korea and the Diamond Princess. South Korea implemented the most robust testing and tested the most individuals, including those that were asymptomatic. There is evidence from the testing that the asymptomatic cases could be as much as 50%. South Korea death rate is currently 0.6%. Either they are about to explode in deaths, the virus strain there is different, the tests yield false positives, or the death rate is in fact near 0.6%. The Diamond Princess is a closed sample and one of the most rigorously tested samples. The death rate is 0.8% and the population on a cruise skews to older individuals. I don't trust the China data, but a lot of the other cities and countries have death rates near or under 1% and do have large samples. (But they aren't testing asymptomatic cases) How good was the testing in wuhan? I guarantee lots of people with minor symptoms went untested when the system was so strained they built a hospital. Same with Italy, the health system is so strained that they can't possibly calculate a good epidemiological sample when people need to be intubated. The US currently is hardly testing at all, but they are about to ramp up testing. The US deaths could be skewed because of an outbreak at a senior living facility. However, the important thing to consider here is what does it mean if the actual COVID death rate is 0.5 to 1%? It means that the total estimated cases in most countries should be 5-10x higher. That's a huge potential shock when the number of cases sore and the average person thinks the death rate is 3.4%.
    • DS
      David S.
      7 March 2020 @ 07:49
      As an existential question the death rate is important. In the plague in Florence, Italy in the early 14 C. 50-60% of the citizens died of the plague. Death was so quick that the phrase was "you can dine with your family at noon and with your ancestors at dinner." It was that fast. Great wealth was created as anyone who live through the plague, could inherit the family fortune. These fortunes founded the Renaissance. The Coronavirus is on a completely different scale. It is the panic that will govern the market returns. Raoul has given his appraisal of what might happen. He will give us more as events unfold. I wish all of you the best of health and investing. DLS
    • WM
      Will M.
      8 March 2020 @ 21:11
      I understand Death Rate and Case Fatality Rate are different numbers. The CFR is the deaths occurring from those who got the disease. So put simply if 100 get the disease and 10 die then the CFR = 10%. However if the population was 200 and only 100 get the disease and 5 die. The mortality or death rate in the population would be 200/5 *100 = 2.5%.
  • BE
    B E.
    8 March 2020 @ 15:48
    I think BTC gets liquidated in this scenario - what is it really?
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      8 March 2020 @ 20:49
      A decentralised censorship resistant capital transfer network.
  • RJ
    Ryan J.
    8 March 2020 @ 19:10
    What happens to the US dollar over the next 6 weeks?
  • DV
    Dionisia V.
    7 March 2020 @ 17:47
    this is the black swan of our lifetimes. Simply visualize this: not a single office space in any city in the world is safe. This has an impact of Trillions of USDs we are talking about. it goes deep to the funamentals of free markets and capitalism. Why on earth as an owner should i fly my airplanes when I am not making any money? Why open my restaurant if nobody shows up? Why pay for an ad of my hotel if nobody is coming anyway? Why keep my workers if i do not need them ? Self interest in these times makes markets fragile. It is not only about the death rate this virus has, it is the economic activity that halts. Doctors are humans too, so the system has a big incentive to underreport. Thus states will intervene big time and markets know that. And always keep in mind that governments want only one thing: reelection. To my mind ofcourse they will print money, change rules overnight, coordinate maybe even on some debt reliefs, but the crucial thing is that trust to be restored will take 9-12 months or maybe more. Even with all of the above I can not see a way out for airlines, hotels, restaurants, cruise ships and subsequently banks, holders of their debt in general, car makers etc. For those trying to trade it, always remember counterparty risk. thinking through it is one thing get it done and earning it requires a functioning system. Last, in the summer of 2008 a hedge fund manager told me don't be surprised if 3-4 investment banks go under. Here the ultimate risk in my mind is if democracies around the world can cope with problem or the 3-4 big, non free countries will get the chance to expand .
    • DS
      David S.
      7 March 2020 @ 19:11
      The economic effects of the Coronavirus are significant, but not catastrophic. It will reveal many other problems, but there will be an economy when it settles down. Compared to the daily life of a refugee this would be just another problem to deal with. The market was over valued by the trillions of dollars from QE. Markets correct. Any number of black swans could have caused this correction. An overwhelming number of humans do not benefit from market investments. Life will go on. Keep your immune system strong. Live your life. DLS
    • MS
      Matt S.
      7 March 2020 @ 19:52
      "Compared to the daily life of a refugee" - ?? lolololol.. chortle....
    • DS
      David S.
      8 March 2020 @ 03:36
      Hi Matt S. - The refugee comment was just to alert some people how lucky many of us are. They Coronavirus is certainly a Black Swan, but most RVTV subscribers are still eating, having a few drinks and warm at night. A balanced perspective is always difficult. DLS
    • DS
      David S.
      8 March 2020 @ 04:45
      Matt S. - P.S. I loved the comment. DLS
    • JM
      John M.
      8 March 2020 @ 06:34
      "... I can not see a way out for airlines, hotels, restaurants, cruise ships and subsequently banks, holders of their debt in general, car makers etc...." That's one HUGE bailout you are talking about. Is that even possible?
    • DV
      Dionisia V.
      8 March 2020 @ 17:55
      John M. Economy is so interconnected that from one point and on it won’t be easy to specify who and when gets bailed out. Governments can’t buy everything. And again if we compare this with what happened with 08 we are missing a) this is a worldwide phenomenon happening at once b) Balance sheets and rates of central banks are in the wrong side of the game. This time the psychological effect will be bigger as it get closer to everybody. I live in EU and trust me it is not Ok to see leaders avoiding handshake. Where does the narrative WHATEVER it takes go now? When they can’t even shake hands.. it gives the signal that trust is gone
    • DV
      Dionisia V.
      8 March 2020 @ 18:00
      By the way who is the lender of last resort now? And how is he going to pay? It’s debt once again. When trust capitulates everybody is turning into a talking head
  • js
    j s.
    8 March 2020 @ 16:39
    Death rate is getting much lower now with more testing.
  • RW
    Raymond W.
    8 March 2020 @ 16:37
    I believe this was recorded before the OPEC drama. I hope he's wrong about the rest of it, but certainly caution is warranted.
  • AA
    Aymman A.
    7 March 2020 @ 22:07
    Does Raul or anyone in the community have a thought why Gold Miners (GDX) are acting poorly while gold is rallying. Is it that strange things happen in markets like now and “don’t over analyze”. Or is GDX price telling us that markets expect gold mines to shut down or something like that. Would appreciate anyone’s educated opinion on this.
    • MK
      Michael K.
      8 March 2020 @ 00:24
      I recommend subscribing to Bill fleckenstein he knows this sector very well
    • DM
      David M.
      8 March 2020 @ 00:40
      That's a quite interesting observation! In my opinion, the reason why is because at the moment, the investors are not in control of the price of gold stocks, but the speculators. Nobody who has been loading up on gold stocks recently in preparation for the big pop, are selling their stocks through this noise. And I don't believe most of these mining companies will shut down either, as many have them have budgeted for 1300-1400$ gold, and will be bringing in lots of profits to return to investors when the gold price goes up! Of course some of the companies are better than others. For example though, last time the price of gold was at this level, the GDX was roughly 80% higher. In my opinion its a great opportunity to buy!
    • JC
      Joe C.
      8 March 2020 @ 07:02
      Gold is a currency. Gold miners are equities. Yes, they are co-integrated, but if equities are in free-fall you better believe gold miners are going to follow equities, not gold. They're a higher-beta bet that's only loosely linked to gold. My personal opinion is if you agree with Raoul that we're on the precipice of something truly awful, gold miners are NOT where you want to be. As Raoul tweeted not long ago: "Nothing works in an economic event like bonds. Nothing. Ever."
    • CW
      CC W.
      8 March 2020 @ 07:03
      I don't see how GDX or gold miners like NovaGold is doing poorly. It is trading nicely in a channel and holding its support.
    • BE
      B E.
      8 March 2020 @ 15:42
      Just buy Barrick, stay away from the juniors.
  • AR
    Abishek R.
    7 March 2020 @ 07:54
    Im a big Raoul fan. I however, will take the other side of this trade. My view is, first markets were first underpricing the virus risk, and when the first white person died in Italy, there was a massive reprice. I believe the markets are now pricing in a situation in the west that will be as bad as China. Where the US PMIs will also hit the 28 level like in China. I don't think that's the case. The most important chart for me is the daily infection rate of acceleration available at https://covid19info.live The moment the daily acceleration rate falls, the markets will begin to increase at the fastest rate we have witnessed. There is record amount of liquidity sloshing around the world right now. I would buy call options for 10000 on the Nasdaq100.
    • JL
      J L.
      7 March 2020 @ 09:24
      You make a great point and it would be an epic albeit difficult bottom to catch due to the high option premiums. Problem I see as stated by Raoul is that by the summer, the amount of deaths in the west is going to be so scary that psychology alone will be destroying consumption for long enough to cause a recession. Longer term you can think Machiavellically that perhaps the more retirees pass away the stronger we will come out of the seemingly endless deflationary trap.
    • JD
      John D.
      7 March 2020 @ 11:50
      The least sophisticated comment I've read on RV.
    • CL
      Cyril L.
      7 March 2020 @ 13:00
      The S&P 500 has gone down like 12% from all-time highs, where valuations were stretched. That's absolutely not pricing US PMIs at 28. I don't know how to price that scenario, I think no one does, but it certainly is not 2,972 on the S&P 500. In my humble view, the market is now pricing a slowdown. Even a mild recession scenario would probably justify a lower price.
    • CL
      Cyril L.
      7 March 2020 @ 13:20
      It is of course possible that governments start printing like crazy immediately because they are scared about even a mild recession. In that scenario, stocks could go up, but even then probably not in a straight line and with a ton of volatility. Also, in the current political environment, I don't think it can happen that fast. They can agree on spending, yes, but not on what to spend on. We'll get there but it will be a process, with more pain needed for everyone (or just a majority) to get behind it.
    • SH
      Stu H.
      7 March 2020 @ 13:36
      Maybe Raoul's 'miracle' is the virus mutates to a more benign form over the next few weeks and the rate of spread/severity slows. Either way uncertainty will remain and buying calls on equities right now is trying to catch a falling knife...Not for me but good luck.
    • AM
      Andrew M.
      7 March 2020 @ 15:27
      'the moment daily acceleration falls' so July then, when many virologists think that this will peak? but until then, consider: 1. market will need to price full extent of US cases in coming days as testing ramps. I think they could re-rate significantly lower once people realise US situation is as dire as Italy, France etc. it will then dawn on people that, despite the WHO's reluctance to use the term, this is a global pandemic. how do you price a pandemic? 2. the disconnect between stocks and bonds is very jarring. stocks are running on CB stimulus that is providing short-term relief but can't solve the corona crisis (they can't print vaccines or force people to shop / go out). bonds are usually right and look further ahead. here, 30-year is now pricing a full-on deflationary bust almost. real yields are crashing at their fastest pace ever as they begin to price both the supply and demand shock. you can bet against the bond market, I'd prefer not 3. we haven't even seen stress in credit, but it will come, and there are signs this is building: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/credit-risk-concerns-build-key-124036016.html then consider the sheer amount of shitty credit that's been issued as investors and pensions "reach for yield": HY is 4 trillion (before BBB downgrades) CLOs are 1 trillion EM corporate debt, much of it issued in $s, is 13% of global bond universe at 15 trillion which gets us to 4) emerging markets and $ liquidity Fed has alleviated pressure for now with 50bps cuts $ has crashed and Euro has rallied as euro carry trades unwind. But what happens when fed rates go to 0? Or their QE or $ swap lines aren't enough to keep global $ pressures at bay. Sooner or later, cross currency basis (EM corporates needing to roll debt) will spike, and eventually, many EM countries (including China) will likely have to devalue their fx imo Taking this together, it's not that implausible that we get a monetary reset of some sort. For central banks and govts, a "Black Swan" like this offers ideal cover for them to reset without attracting much blame - we haven't had a true pandemic for over 100 years, so they can pin the blame on this rather than their policies leading to the debasement of the global economy Who knows what the future will look like. But S&P 500 @ 3000 could be a very distant memory
    • AM
      Andrew M.
      7 March 2020 @ 15:30
      and ironically, stopping the spread of the virus will mean decimating the economy. even if Trump, Boris etc. seem reluctant to take such measures, they'll need to in a few weeks in order to stop their medical systems melting down (even if case fatality is 0.1-0.6%, 5-10% need hospital treatment). recession is fast becoming inevitable, but most investors still don't realise it yet .stocks absolutely dont https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-07/as-bad-as-rout-is-most-investors-see-recession-as-a-long-shot?srnd=markets-vp&sref=XnSzXnUf
    • MT
      Mike T.
      8 March 2020 @ 14:35
      Over time, buying options (as opposed to selling options) is always mathematically, statistically a sub-optimal way to participate in the market.
  • AH
    Andrew H.
    8 March 2020 @ 13:45
    "good luck up there" lol grim Freudian slip
  • MF
    Max F.
    7 March 2020 @ 02:01
    Corporate credit is the next space where this plays out. LQD Jan 15 '21 puts very cheap relative to Raoul's scenario --- IV roughly 10%. Big exposure to financials, energy. Hedge the moves in rates with TLT.
    • MF
      Max F.
      7 March 2020 @ 02:03
      https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239566/ishares-iboxx-investment-grade-corporate-bond-etf#/
    • SS
      Steve S.
      7 March 2020 @ 12:34
      @Max. I prefer Puts on HYG. Also, puts on General Electric everytime they bounce up.
    • MF
      Max F.
      7 March 2020 @ 16:17
      @ steve The issue with HYG is that puts are already incredibly expensive, the IV is really extreme, similar to equities. I have a few bear call spreads on it to take advantage of the higher IV, but I think the best risk/reward is in LQD.
    • ED
      Etienne D.
      8 March 2020 @ 13:28
      @max interesting. can you explain how you structured the TLT rate hedge?
  • JG
    Johan G.
    8 March 2020 @ 11:22
    Cruise ships out of Florida change 3000++ passengers every three days, and risk having the ship contained for 6-8 weeks with all cost running and no income. How long before they send the crew home and dock the fleet? 11 Million americans go on a cruise every year, many of them are in the high risk group. Cruise liners will have to reimburse prepaid cruise tickets as cancellations ramp up. Working capital issues??? How long before they can restart their business and people want to go on cruise again? The US economy is a service economy, and services is where the pain will be felt... Belt up!
  • LL
    Lukee L.
    7 March 2020 @ 22:49
    We need some population control anyways
    • RS
      Robert S.
      8 March 2020 @ 03:22
      No we don’t.
    • LL
      Lukee L.
      8 March 2020 @ 09:49
      Let me guess you've never been to China haha
  • SS
    Steve S.
    6 March 2020 @ 13:52
    Yes Bank in India has been seized by the Govt and withdrawal limits have been put of 600USD this month. As people truly panic, bank runs are inevitable. I have some people on the ground in China who have said this has already been happening. It's time to be prepared. The UK Govt only guarantees up to £85k per depositor if bank goes insolvent. Thank god for Bitcoin, out of the financial system.
    • HS
      Hugh S.
      8 March 2020 @ 08:41
      safety in sats
  • JC
    Joe C.
    8 March 2020 @ 07:08
    In my opinion the case count/death count are irrelevant (in the US) at this point. The powers that be have a vested interest in maintaining as low #s on both metrics as possible. They are tipping their hand at every turn. The next black swan event? The "oh shit" moment that will drive US equities off a cliff? It'll be when the first major US hospital closes due to COVID overrunning its staff. This is not a question of if. This is a question of when.
    • JC
      Joe C.
      8 March 2020 @ 07:22
      And to any who call this "overblown", I am saying this from Washington State, 10 miles from Evergreen Health in Kirkland, very likely to be that hospital. We are a crystal ball into the future for the rest of the country, and nobody is paying attention. Whatever you think this is, trust me, it's worse.
  • CW
    CC W.
    8 March 2020 @ 07:01
    I am not saying this isn't the black swan risk that the market is waiting for. But I do think the whole virus thing is overblown. We'll see how things play out the next few months from the health care perspective here in the US.
  • FM
    Friedrich M.
    8 March 2020 @ 01:37
    2 Days ago the National Health Institute of Italy (ISS) released some numbers at the time there were 3296 people tested positive and 148 fatalities . The average age of the people who died was 81 years old. 42% were between 80 and 89 years old, 32% were between 70 and 79 years old, 8% percent between 60 and 69 years old, 3% between 50 and 59 years old and 14 percent over 90 years old.
    • FM
      Friedrich M.
      8 March 2020 @ 01:46
      and 85 % had some pre-existing condition
  • SG
    Steve G.
    7 March 2020 @ 23:39
    results have been decent with HIV-antivirals and now Gilead is expected to release results in April, but maybe sooner, and their drug is likely to be more effective. true results remain open. Hopefully this is assessed in the risk. https://www.gilead.com/news-and-press/press-room/press-releases/2020/2/gilead-sciences-initiates-two-phase-3-studies-of-investigational-antiviral-remdesivir-for-the-treatment-of-covid-19
  • SU
    Shakeel U.
    6 March 2020 @ 16:12
    "I'm not happy with Real Vision new Subscription model. Because now, most of the info is out of reach for normal people". Vote if you agree (thumbs up) or disagree (thumbs down) with this statement. P.S. I've noticed Real Vision have deleted negative comments about the new Subscription model. I think this comment will get deleted.
    • GS
      George S.
      6 March 2020 @ 16:33
      Message me at george@realvision.com We are deleting a few of the comments and contacting members individually, because the comments have nothing to do with the content. The comment section is designed to discuss the piece of content associated with it.
    • MP
      Máté P.
      6 March 2020 @ 16:35
      I know I'll get a lot of downvotes for this, but RV is not charity, these guys are running a business. We'll not enjoy the service for long if their investors do not make money. On a platform about investing, I thought ppl would understand this...
    • YY
      Yunong Y.
      6 March 2020 @ 16:58
      agree
    • SU
      Shakeel U.
      6 March 2020 @ 17:16
      Mate P Real Vision ethos and mission is to democratize financial information, to level the playing field. If Real Vision now think making more money is more important, that's fine. It's just very unfortunate, it puts ordinary people at a greater disadvantage now.
    • TM
      Thomas M.
      6 March 2020 @ 18:16
      money is a reality! going to have to pay up not the happiest but i understand it
    • AW
      Abigail W.
      6 March 2020 @ 19:01
      It's all depends on what you do with what you've learned here. High quality requires high effort. As practitioner, I am happy to pay for it and it's great ROI for my tradings. For only educational purpose, there is plenty of free contents from RV on Youtube.
    • TR
      Thomas R.
      6 March 2020 @ 19:23
      Agreed
    • JP
      John P.
      6 March 2020 @ 19:34
      As some one who previously subscribed to RV TV and Think Tank/ Access, the price for both of these has actually gone down and the content has gone up. At one point, trade ideas was tested at a price that didn't work for me. RV within a month slashed the price and offered everything for half. Back when I first subscribed, TV was $365 and had 50% less content (and it was still just as valuable). At a time when college tuition at a state funded junior college costs over $365 per unit this type of content is about as cheap as it gets. My two cents, let RV do what they need to do as a business and keep mixing things up. RV has changed a lot over two years and will probably change again soon. Thinking that they make money off of us subscribers as a fledgling company right now is silly.
    • WM
      Will M.
      6 March 2020 @ 22:27
      RV needs to make a profit Shakeel, it is not a charity. The proof of the pudding is whether Raoul and the others make the right calls, or else it will lose some customers...
    • TZ
      Tibor Z.
      7 March 2020 @ 00:21
      Agreed ! Unfortunately. The best stuff is one level higher. It's not what I payed for. Wanted to have investment ideas and maybe fundamental analysis from interesting companies...
    • AF
      Andre F.
      7 March 2020 @ 08:08
      What is this talk about "normal people"? It sounds like sneaky victim talk, please stop it! Furthermore, anyone who decides to take investing and trading seriously is, in fact, not a normal person and that's a good thing.
    • IP
      IDA P.
      7 March 2020 @ 22:25
      super agree I was one of the first subscribers years ago I bought a 3 year subscription giving faith to the project, I feel punished
    • IP
      IDA P.
      7 March 2020 @ 22:28
      no I take that back I couldn't see anything last week and I got very angry about it, I see they resolved the problem now, thanks RV
  • TZ
    Tibor Z.
    7 March 2020 @ 02:16
    The most important question: Will gold and the gold miners fall like it happened in 2008 and than rally to all time highs? OR it will sloping upwards continuously with relatively smaller 100-150 dollar short therm dips! Could you make a video about the probabilities? There was a recent interview : Gold, Tears and Coronavirus. He is mentioning the topic but doesn't explaining it in details. Call him back for this specific reason and make another interview! Or make a discussion with a group of 5-6 like Brent Johnson for example. This is a once in a lifetime opportunity!!! Many Thanks!
    • AF
      Andre F.
      7 March 2020 @ 07:32
      You're over thinking this. If there's a depression EVERYTHING will sell off. I repeat E-V-E-R-Y-T-H-I-N-G.
    • MC
      Minum C.
      7 March 2020 @ 19:43
      When volatility goes vertical, correlation moves towards 1.
    • IP
      IDA P.
      7 March 2020 @ 22:19
      you don't need a video... if rates go to zero and inflation zero, gold will be ok, but if inflation goes negative with rates at zero (positive real rates), gold will go down. then there will be fiscal intervention or something big and gold will go up.
  • MK
    Mitchel K.
    7 March 2020 @ 21:58
    1 week max before the end? 30:40 🥺
  • DT
    Douglas T.
    7 March 2020 @ 21:45
    Glad to see someone being realistic about this pandemic. It is just too contagious and stealthy to stop. Quarantining helps until shortages force everyone back out. Since 80% of people are not seriously affected, we will have to go back to work and take our chances with higher levels of infection. You can't fight an epidemic by killing the economy. Of course, we'll wear masks and goggles, wash our hands 50 times a day, and the elderly will be isolated. But people will get sick and many will die. Pray for a Miracle, but prepare for the worst.
  • JS
    J S.
    7 March 2020 @ 21:26
    The year zero 'BR' (Before Raoul) .... if only we knew.
  • AR
    Alexander R.
    7 March 2020 @ 16:47
    There is one and only one thing that can stop the pandemic, vaccine that works !!!!!! Virus is very infectious, and most people spread it for days before anyone is even thinking they are sick. No matter what your hear from health officials /talking heads on TV, it will spread, just common sense. I am not clear if mortality is 1-3% , it can be much lower, as many mild cases are not tested and not reported. From economical impact, it probably does not matter as what important is how people think about the virus, and it is just a question of time till panic starts. PS: I spent last 30 years in medicine, I might be wrong but this is my best educated projection.
    • MS
      Matt S.
      7 March 2020 @ 19:58
      Global vaccines! Banning cash because it "spreads disease"! Distraction from massive global theft of public money! Bans on freedom of movement! It's almost as if... big governments have been handed a gift from the Gods in the form on the CV.
  • WA
    William A.
    7 March 2020 @ 17:37
    Thanks for this. Love your breakdowns. How does one position if the markets close? Does that put shorts at risk?
    • MS
      Matt S.
      7 March 2020 @ 19:53
      exactly my thoughts... my guess is yes very much so
  • MS
    Matt S.
    7 March 2020 @ 19:34
    Gold could be making a giant C&H pattern there....
  • PD
    Paul D.
    7 March 2020 @ 19:25
    Quick question on the Euro/USD chart, why does it predate the creation of the EUR currency?
    • NR
      Nelson R.
      7 March 2020 @ 19:32
      The road to the Euro was a long one, before the Euro there was the ECU (a basquet of currencies of EU member states). Mostly used as unit of accounting but with a free floating price for reference. So the data before the Euro implementation date is essentially ECU data.
  • NR
    Nelson R.
    7 March 2020 @ 18:56
    Did I just catch a whiff of millennial socialism in your speech when talking about U.S corporations Raoul? What would you like to substitute them with, French or Russian corporate governance? Chinese? Thats working really well eh. Inequality is secondary to overall wealth creation, and no other machine creates more wealth than the American capitalist machine. Recessions, pullbacks, crashes and bankruptcies are also part of the of the system. Perhaps owning our investment decisions and their consequences is what we should be advocating instead.
  • wr
    william r.
    7 March 2020 @ 04:55
    Raoul - enjoyed the video. Just a heads up: it pronounced “R-naught” ... not “R-zero”. Otherwise longtime subscriber here and love the platform.
    • DB
      Douglas B.
      7 March 2020 @ 17:38
      🙄
  • EK
    Edward K.
    7 March 2020 @ 17:11
    Anchoring around the Spanish Flu pandemic makes good "worst case" sense. That virus attacked primarily healthy individuals via their own immune systems and there was a follow on depression (not sure if world wide). This Corona version is more lethal for older cohorts of which there are vastly more and the rate of transmission is geometrically faster. So, all in all, certainly not an unfair parallel. Again, worst case but we have been warned.
  • DM
    Daniel M.
    7 March 2020 @ 15:57
    We can count on the incompetents running the US government to do all the wrong things. As expected, they have begun to do nothing right and this will continue until a full-blown crisis breaks out. The FED will get to zero faster than anyone expected but they will continue to fund the speculators while shafting the savers, but what else is new. This was a very good presentation but probably not grim enough as far as the USA is concerned.
  • SS
    Sam S.
    7 March 2020 @ 15:00
    Doesn't matter to anyone, until it matters to everyone!
  • NR
    Nathan R.
    7 March 2020 @ 12:43
    There is one other small thing: it seems everyone is taking China at its word that the virus is abating. Given the CCP’s history I personally am not buying that for an instant.
  • JM
    John M.
    6 March 2020 @ 18:13
    Raoul, thank you for sharing your views. Its a minor point but why are the Chinese burning currency (I have seen this news elsewhere as well)?? The virus can only survive for about 10 days. Why not put it in a box and let it sit for 10 days. If anyone is thinking of burning their money you are welcome to mail it to me!
    • WM
      Will M.
      6 March 2020 @ 19:07
      Precursor to electronic cash?
    • LS
      Lou S.
      7 March 2020 @ 09:41
      Yes, why can't you be sure that a billion people put their money in a box for ten days at the same time?!
  • LS
    Lou S.
    7 March 2020 @ 08:12
    Employees at Google, a big insurance and others are already in home office in Zurich until further notice
  • JA
    John A.
    6 March 2020 @ 13:10
    I recommend you release this onto your free channel. There are people who don't believe the reports who might believe you. This imo is too important to wait two weeks.
    • AF
      Andre F.
      7 March 2020 @ 08:12
      Stop it.
  • WB
    William B.
    7 March 2020 @ 01:44
    You might want to read the book "The Fourth Turning" by William Strauss and Neil Howe. The book was written in 1998, so there has been a delay. They argue that we are approaching the fourth turning, which is a time of destruction of institutions (like Winter), to be followed by a new first turning (like Spring). Kinda scary, but with eventual rebirth, like the Firebird.
    • DS
      David S.
      7 March 2020 @ 07:16
      I know many people believe in the market predictability of "The Fourth Turning." I am not one of them. If you believe, then follow the "the yellow brick road." I do not expect there to be anything but a little man behind the curtain a la "The Wizard of OZ." My view in RVTV family is in the minority. It is a good story built on generalizations that are weak. We will see if there is any real investment value. I have been wrong before. DLS
  • BS
    Bill S.
    7 March 2020 @ 07:02
    ohh k....so where do we hide and how do the capitalists capitalize on the tail risk.
  • mh
    muddshir h.
    7 March 2020 @ 06:35
    Raoul i have been listening to your interviews for over 1 year now and i learn so much . I cant thank you enough .stay save god bless
  • dw
    douglas w.
    6 March 2020 @ 23:05
    Not sure about other viewers but that interview scared the s%$t out of me, and I usually love all of Raoul's interviews. Right now I need some reassuring cuddly words, about holding some bullion and some cash and maybe buying some frozen pizzas for the long haul, is Grant available? You and the RV team, stay safe, get those industrial bottles of Purell for the office, and I hope this time around you're wrong.
    • bm
      brian m.
      7 March 2020 @ 05:46
      There is always the "under the blankets" approach, ..works for me.
  • DS
    David S.
    6 March 2020 @ 18:03
    I reduced my gold holdings to long-term levels. Gold will be a source of cash for margin calls, especially if market keeps going down. DLS
    • NI
      Nate I.
      6 March 2020 @ 19:03
      Historically that has been true, but a couple things. 1) the pet rock theme is now far more deeply ingrained in the minds of western investors. They might not have a lot of gold to sell. 2) Central banks have been buyers of late. We have no idea how deep the bid is right now with countries like Poland, Russia, Turkey, Hungary, etc buying. Those countries may slow their buying as their economic conditions worsen or they might just oil the printing press and keep on buying. A drop is possible, but I wouldn't count on it based solely on the margin call narrative.
    • DS
      David S.
      6 March 2020 @ 20:23
      Nate I. - The market is already showing that your are correct with a nice bounce after I sold some gold. Your points are well taken. I like to trade around my long-term position which is about 10%. If you continue to be correct, which I hope your are, I will be happy to increase my position. DLS
    • WM
      Will M.
      6 March 2020 @ 22:36
      David I enjoy almost all of your perspectives. I fully agree that gold and miners could take a hit due to liquidation so there may be value in waiting and buying the gold / miner dip. I am just full of FOMO after all these years if what Nate says occurs. I see so many non gold bugs now saying best to have good gold exposure. I guess for me long term levels are 5% and I am currently at 5% miners and actually close to 10% metal at current prices. So nervous... but I have nailed my flag to the mast......
    • DS
      David S.
      7 March 2020 @ 04:46
      Will M. - At 5-10% I look at it as an insurance policy, especially since I am mostly in cash at a time like this DLS
  • GF
    Gordon F.
    7 March 2020 @ 01:33
    I think the overall death rate is likely to be lower than currently estimated, once we find all those infected but not yet counted, but the death rate among senior citizens and especially those in their 70s and up is much higher - 10% or more. If they are in bad health it's even worse. I suspect that much of the panic over the coronavirus is coming from the top echelons of our government and industry. We have a president who is 73 and the two leading candidates in opposition to him are 77 and 78. It is virtually impossible that their security details could protect them from infection by this virus. Thus their only hope to avoid infection is to get everybody else to make sacrifices to keep them safe. This extends also to congressional leadership and a lot of lobbyists. And of course the same holds true for the Chinese Communist Party and politicians in the rest of the world. On a separate note, if we had a sudden 10% mortality rate among the senior citizens of the US what might that do for the future viability of Social Security and Medicare? I hate to raise this issue because I am 66 years old and I don't want to become part of that statistic, but I do think it's worth thinking about.
  • SJ
    Steve J.
    7 March 2020 @ 00:59
    How does one make money in the market during this if we don't know when/how/for how long they will freeze the market?
  • SS
    Steve S.
    6 March 2020 @ 13:33
    @Raoul. You recently advised subscribers to close their Eurodollar Dec20 positions. If the crisis plays out over the few weeks, should we get back into the ED Dec20 positions with more aggressive strikes? Perhaps 99.625 or 99.750. Thanks in advance
    • AB
      Arawata B.
      6 March 2020 @ 20:24
      Early to the party.......and early to leave. There are plenty of other opportunities lining up. Good luck out there.
    • AB
      Arawata B.
      7 March 2020 @ 00:09
      and remember to wash your hands...
  • BB
    B B.
    6 March 2020 @ 23:57
    I am reminded of the movie Brazil and, the inefficiency of Big Government Bureaucracy
  • BB
    Bob B.
    6 March 2020 @ 23:20
    What concerns me about death numbers - Wuhan and area in full lock down - what will they find after?
  • TR
    Thomas R.
    6 March 2020 @ 22:56
    You just scared the living hell out of me.. again! One question: When everybody stays at home because of the virus, won't this be super deflationary at first and therefore bad for gold?
  • NR
    Nathan R.
    6 March 2020 @ 22:25
    Raoul's outlook has both clarified and expanded my thinking. It has allowed me to make $3MM in the past six weeks alone. At $2700/yr someone please calc that ROI. Big. RV Pro is not only invaluable it is absolutely essential for those of us managing money.
    • WM
      Will M.
      6 March 2020 @ 22:39
      Nathan, I need to pay you to do my investment strategy..... Either you are crazy or rich.....
    • NR
      Nathan R.
      6 March 2020 @ 22:49
      For clients Will, not the PA. And, Raoul's insights deserve the credit...
  • TD
    Thomas D.
    6 March 2020 @ 21:32
    What is the death rate outside of China whose numbers we can’t trust?
    • WM
      Will M.
      6 March 2020 @ 22:37
      That would be Iran for sure.
  • ar
    andrew r.
    6 March 2020 @ 17:23
    Always appreciate Raoul's perspective. But on this, I'll take the other side. https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-rate-lower-than-we-think.html
    • DS
      David S.
      6 March 2020 @ 18:18
      Raoul's perspective is really on the markets. The rest is background to estimate market reaction. The biggest problems for me are that Coronavirus patients will overwhelm the hospital systems - increasing the spread - and real disruption of economic activity - recession. DLS
    • WM
      Will M.
      6 March 2020 @ 22:30
      Andrew, the facts may be irrelevant, the herd will dominate and if they decide in coming few weeks to stop their economic activity things will rapidly get worse. Also Raoul's point about baby boomers and retrenchment is absolutely key. Other go sites I pay for are warning a break of 2800 in S&P will likely lead to a big drop anyway, we are too close to that for me not to take certain measures....
  • KA
    Kelly A.
    6 March 2020 @ 16:09
    Awe inspiring tour de force of intellect. Thank you for showing the mechanisms for how quickly everything can fall apart. Having said that, I'm wondering why the Chinese infections are decreasing. Yes, it's China, so the numbers are not to be relied upon. So other RVers, please help me answer this: if C19 is so contagious, won't we see the number of infections in China spike HUGELY in the next couple weeks when everyone goes back to work there? That could be because heads of Communist Party decided the loss of life of older folks could actually be a good thing vs. loss of GDP of nobody working. It could also be because they over-reacted to C19 in the first place. Thoughts please! thank you.
    • WM
      Will M.
      6 March 2020 @ 22:23
      Chinese transmission is down because the economy has ground to a halt. Easy to take draconian steps where the police and army are only ones to have the guns.....
  • EC
    Emily C.
    6 March 2020 @ 13:30
    People are not realizing that the death rate for 60-70 is 3.5 percent, 70-80 is 8 percent, and 80 and up is 15 percent. And if the US doesn’t start closing schools, teachers, staff and grandparents are all at risk because children will be spreading it with milder cases. Everyone keeps thinking oh, I’m not old. What about your parents!!!
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      6 March 2020 @ 17:34
      Emily is correct. My Father is 81 years old, is a colostomite since last July, suffered a stroke in 2006 which left him with a permanent limp (was lucky - could have been much worse) and is almost certainly going to be f***ed if he catches this. Have already advised him to self-isolate, but he will not take the risk seriously.
    • WM
      Will M.
      6 March 2020 @ 22:11
      Well said Emily, some prat on RVT commented this wouldn't be too bad since it was primarily going to impact older folks and for younger folks it was similar to flu. My father is 90, stepfather 85 and wife father 85. Latter has multiple issues. For them, infection could be deadly. The real issue here is a fast spreading epidemic will overwhelm the health services and increase the death rate, even for young folks. Triage will be critical and if doctors and nurses come down with anytime other than a mild case it will make things worse. Prepare for the worst.....hope for the best.
  • SR
    Sean R.
    6 March 2020 @ 08:34
    Raul, In those scenarios, do you think equity in the gold and silver miners will sell off with everything else? Thank you
    • JM
      John M.
      6 March 2020 @ 11:18
      I know you asked Raoul, but the answer is likely yes to some degree... They are held with other equities in the same accounts, so vulnerable to be liquidated to meet redemptions, margin calls, and other liquidity needs alongside other equities, even moreso if they perform well initially.
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      6 March 2020 @ 17:36
      If last Friday and 2008 are anything to go by, then yes, they will likely sell off heavily.
    • WM
      Will M.
      6 March 2020 @ 22:04
      Sean, I own a big chuck of GDX, GDXJ and Silver miners. Probably about 7.5% of my portfolio. So I am worried about the visual effect of seeing those decline by 25-30%, however, my only solace is that eventually, once everyone sees the massive QE whatever to come, these will rebound sharply. In a SHTF scenario the physical safely stored, may be the only way to stay whole. Very worrying, especially if S&P 500 breaks 2800.
  • ML
    Mike L.
    6 March 2020 @ 21:41
    The big question is whether the spread of virus will slow in N. hemisphere during spring / summer. Expert #johnnicholls #coronavirus expert thinks so. This may be why infection rates in Australia and Singapore are not as high as those in N hemisphere. https://t.co/k2g1QG0txj
    • ML
      Mike L.
      6 March 2020 @ 21:41
      https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-wellness/coronavirus-expert-says-the-virus-will-burn-itself-out-in-about-6-months/679415
  • MO
    Matthew O.
    6 March 2020 @ 20:31
    Raoul, thanks for the video. To make it a little easier, can you please list all the charts featured in the video to be viewed as images so we dont need to find the section of the video and pause.
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      6 March 2020 @ 21:11
      All charts are imbedded in the PDF transcript
  • KL
    Kerrie L.
    6 March 2020 @ 19:35
    What if we sold TLT Monday for a pull back? If rates are going to zero there’s still an opportunity right? What membership level do you have to be to get the email that was sent with this video?
    • KL
      Kerrie L.
      6 March 2020 @ 19:36
      *wait
  • DW
    Daniel W.
    6 March 2020 @ 17:20
    Raoul, is there aby evidence for assuming a mortality rate of 6%? I am a MD at a university hospital in germany, not a virologist however, but we do currently calculate a mortality rate of 0.5%.
    • DW
      Daniel W.
      6 March 2020 @ 17:23
      Just to add this, I am aware of the 3.4% global number, but that includes countries with low quality healthcare.
    • DW
      Daniel W.
      6 March 2020 @ 17:38
      Sorry, you said 3.5%, not 6%. That is the official figure
    • NI
      Nate I.
      6 March 2020 @ 19:12
      China lies when the truth better serves their purpose and the "don't test, don't tell" policy in the US, now compounded by the insane CDC secrecy, has made this calculation very difficult, but all data I can find puts it safely above 0.5%. It's also extremely dangerous to view this through a static lens. As healthcare systems in the US and elsewhere become more and more overwhelmed, the mortality rate - whatever it might be - is going up. Possibly up a lot. The "lucky" ones will be either the first or the last to catch this virus when the healthcare system can handle it.
    • TS