Risk in the Age of the Fed Put

Published on
March 18th, 2019
36 minutes

Risk in the Age of the Fed Put

The Expert View ·
Featuring Ken Grant

Published on: March 18th, 2019 • Duration: 36 minutes

Ken Grant, founder of General Risk Advisors, explores the current state of play in market risk, which he frames against a backdrop of unprecedented global central bank intervention. Grant discusses his outlook for U.S. equities, and unpacks the forces and distortions he sees influencing those markets. Filmed on March 12, 2019 in New York.


  • BM
    Beat M.
    19 March 2019 @ 11:33
    So, there is more and more money chasing fewer and fewer assets, but as soon as cb‘s skimming a little bit off, markets have a tantrum? it’s more like a rocket, it needs fuel to survive and the only two ways are up or crash down.
    • my
      markettaker y.
      24 March 2019 @ 23:55
  • lD
    lance D.
    21 March 2019 @ 15:22
    the best ending ever .. 'keep on ya toe's ya'll' love it !
  • GF
    Gordon F.
    19 March 2019 @ 22:35
    RV, You did an Expert View a while back in which you had the questions voiced in so they could be heard without need to view the screen. I appreciated it and told you so, along with several other RV subscribers. Then, you returned to the old format, where the questions are just flashed on the screen. PLEASE! Follow through on that improvement and have the questions voiced in so I can just LISTEN to these. Thanks.
    • BY
      Bowie Y.
      21 March 2019 @ 10:51
      I second that
  • RJ
    Russ J.
    18 March 2019 @ 16:02
    what a rediculous argument concerning wealth disparity. "go back to pharoah, go back to 1910, we are not at some historical extreme" he says. comparing those historical extermes to todays extreme does not make your point, which seems to be that you dont care if there a great disparity as long as the markets go up. and i do not believe i am miscontruing your intent. the disparity we are encountering is seen all over the world and will come back to bite this economy and the govts around the world the Fed has the bulls back until the fed does not, as in, 2001, 2007-08 eventually monetary policy cannot mask/save declining corp earnings. We peaked in corp earnings (not eps, think buybacks)in 3q18. but in real YOY change earnings have declined by nearly half. the fairytale of trade and fed put will end eventually, mayne soone maybe later
    • DS
      David S.
      18 March 2019 @ 23:15
      Given enough opportunities wealth does consolidate. As Milton Friedman said - it is not always to the same people. The wealthy today be the middle class or poor of tomorrow. This is seen more in the West where standards of living are declining. In the East the standard of living is rapidly improving for many millions. I agree that many investors do not care about anyone but their own wealth. I do not think that Mr. Grant is one of them. Do not kill the messenger. DLS
    • SA
      Stephen A.
      19 March 2019 @ 00:03
      In 2001 and 2008, the FED did have the bulls back but it didn't matter.
    • DS
      David S.
      19 March 2019 @ 20:22
      Stephen A. - M-2 money supply was rising from 2000 through 2010. Even increasing the money supply cannot stop a massive bull bubble. It is my opinion that Fed policies are becoming less and less effective in the real economy. They do affect P/E inflation in the market. This will pass too. MMT will not help either. I think we have been testing MMT since the 1980s, they just did not know the name yet. I do not know how the problem will be solved. It will just happen, and we will have to pick up the pieces. DLS
  • JP
    Janusz P.
    18 March 2019 @ 19:31
    The most constructive comment I can make in regards to this video is that it is total garbage and unbearable to watch. He is just rumbling throughout.
    • DS
      David S.
      18 March 2019 @ 22:55
      Mr. Grant's style is not focused, but he is smart. It is very difficult to give a blank screen monologue. I think a dialogue would be a better format for Mr. Grant. I use some of the same logic when I bought Christmas Eve and a couple of days after. I sold after half the market comeback. I was happy and not greedy. I think we will have more opportunities in 2019 as different shoes fall. Until then, I will have fun with a few pot stocks. DLS
    • JP
      Janusz P.
      19 March 2019 @ 09:56
      My harsh comment was not about the intelligence of the interviewee but the video itself. He was just rumbling throughout and therefore it was up to the editor to try and cut the material to try save it (get something useful out of it). I’m not sure it was possible to get anything useful out of this material, so I cant blame blame the editor. However I’m surprised this video has got posted anyways. In short, if the presentation comes out as a garbage it is better to scrap it than post it. Right in the middle of this video I started wondering WTF is that and only out of respect I watched to the end. I was really offended by the quality of this presentation. Again, nothing to do with the intelligence of the interviewee. Some material is just not meant to be posted, just like many movies don’t make it to the big screen... just my $0.02 worth
    • DS
      David S.
      19 March 2019 @ 20:09
      Greg O. - I agree with your suggestions. I do not have the time pressure that other people have, so I enjoyed the monologue. I enjoy the "stream of consciousness" method as well has a directed point of view. My approval may say something about me. DLS
  • VS
    Victor S. | Contributor
    19 March 2019 @ 19:32
    Problem is world economy and EU elections in May. USA put may not matter? Good thoughts thank you
  • SA
    Stephen A.
    19 March 2019 @ 00:01
    This is like the worst video ever. He constantly contradicts himself. Obviously he has a market maker brain and sees both sides of the issues very well but ... I feel like I went on a date and was left hanging. You know - make a call. You can't say - there is massive amounts of money sloshing around in the world and at the same time say - it's going to be very volatile. Which is it?
    • PC
      Peter C.
      19 March 2019 @ 00:55
      Ha, totally agree. What are we learning here? Nothing in my opinion.
    • KD
      Karl D.
      19 March 2019 @ 07:32
      Agreed. He contradicted himself on China saying they can handle pain better than the US (which is total bs) and then said there was internal pressure to make a deal. Very unsophisticated analysis.
    • DS
      David S.
      19 March 2019 @ 18:22
      Both can be true. Where I disagree is on President Xi and President Putin's power base. Both are the main driver in their countries. Don't bet against them. DLS
  • CL
    Chase L.
    19 March 2019 @ 12:51
    I rarely ever comment. Had to here as this was the most vanilla "CNBC" long form interview I've come across on RV over 3 years. Very articulate if you aren't a professional, will get you up to date. If you are, all takes are reactionary.
    • CL
      Chase L.
      19 March 2019 @ 12:55
      Fwiw the 'too much money chasing too few assets' is a pigeon holed US biased take - add up all potential int'l investments plus the ballooned size of the private market and you'll get a diff answer. Lazy take there, but not uncommon for my US-centric peers.
  • gg
    georgy g.
    19 March 2019 @ 11:59
    Missed his point? Is he trying to say “Who could have seen dec buy coming?”... well a number of people did for the right reasons. Agree zero insights here
  • NN
    Natibay N.
    19 March 2019 @ 09:15
    I think we'd get more out of him from a "Skin in the Game" format
  • JF
    Jeppe F.
    19 March 2019 @ 06:08
    Very poor content. Just a pointless rambling about what has already happened with no new insights.
  • TR
    Travis R.
    19 March 2019 @ 04:47
    RV, please interview G Edward Griffin. Thank you for your outstanding work.
  • TZ
    Tibor Z.
    19 March 2019 @ 01:39
    I can't believe that this distorted socials market is going to continue. But it will. I agree with him it's just feels bad to see that asset prices are might going to climb higher. Capitalism died at 2008.
    • TZ
      Tibor Z.
      19 March 2019 @ 01:40
      * Socialist market.
  • GR
    George R.
    19 March 2019 @ 01:00
    It's interesting to hear about the scarcity of investment vehicles for the investment communnity, however next time, please can Ken show us evidence for this? Charts, demograhics, shares outstanding etc would be things the RV audience want to see.
    • BO
      Bob O.
      19 March 2019 @ 01:24
      G'day George, you may want to start with 'The Myth of Capitalism' by Jonathan Tepper and Denis Hearn. Jonathan has been a guest on RV, you may want to take a look at that interview.
  • MM
    Mike M.
    18 March 2019 @ 21:26
    We have not had price discovery in ten years.....booyah.
    • WS
      William S.
      19 March 2019 @ 00:33
  • BO
    Bob O.
    19 March 2019 @ 00:24
    So, the host of this party is giving out as much free booze as you can drink, in fact if he spots your class getting low he'll top it up without even asking you. The party continues and the guests get a skin full, party! party! party! What a night. Tomorrow's hangover is going to be a killer.
  • TH
    Truman H.
    18 March 2019 @ 17:58
    “The central bank has your back.” Until it doesn’t? Does he really think the CB is more powerful than the markets? When the trend changes and we get QE4, negative interest rates and who knows what else, does the CB have your back on the purchasing value of the currency? Sounds like a way to lose a lot of money...
    • MG
      Miguel G.
      18 March 2019 @ 18:21
      I second your thoughts Truman. IMO the central bank having investors back may be the biggest group think idea out in markets today. Oh and its 2016 all over again and the reflation trade is back.
    • DS
      David S.
      18 March 2019 @ 23:06
      You are correct, except the stock market will still go up. I also agree with Miquel G. that this is the biggest group think, but it works less each time. Fewer tradable stocks, corporate buybacks and more QE. The real economy and corporations may falter, but the stock markets will not care until everyone runs to gold and cash. I hope I will be there. DLS
  • WG
    Wade G.
    18 March 2019 @ 21:06
    Recently I was pondering shorting the market, adding to a gold/miners position, or finding something else I could believe in. I found myself, for the first time in 2+ years, not wanting to shun duration, but actually feeling attracted to it. I opened a small position in long term treasuries (duration maybe 17ish). After listening to Mr. Grant, I feel better about it. Time will tell.
  • BP
    Byron P.
    18 March 2019 @ 10:19
    one of the best analysis on real vision imo.
    • HJ
      Harry J.
      18 March 2019 @ 21:06
      Byron have you been watching the last month?
  • AG
    Adam G.
    18 March 2019 @ 14:12
    Did anyone else find his comments a bit mysterious? It seems he alluded to future volatility without being conclusive.
    • WG
      Wade G.
      18 March 2019 @ 21:03
      For what its worth, my take away from one listening: yes, he expects volatility to show itself in the remainder of the year; he does not expect continuation of one way market we saw in Q1. Whether intended or not, I took away both of those points.
  • DS
    David S.
    18 March 2019 @ 20:33
    Raising rates and QT by the Fed have a strong negative effect on the financial markets and the economy. If rates and QT are stable, the financial markets and the economy can stabilize. If rates decline and QE is restarted it will have a short-term positive effect on the financial markets and very little effect on the real economy. The Fed has your back means financial markets, not the economy. Before QE, etc. the Fed could affect the real economy by lowering rates for profitable investments. With all the QE, investable funds are not the problem. Net, net the Fed cannot help the real economy by lower interest rates or QE. (Even low and negative rates are not helping in Europe.) The Fed should just sit on its hands. DLS
  • TD
    Thomas D.
    18 March 2019 @ 18:04
    I would like to hear more from Mr. Grant.
  • PU
    Peter U.
    18 March 2019 @ 15:43
    What color were Ken's socks?
    • PU
      Peter U.
      18 March 2019 @ 17:24
      where is your sense of humor
  • PP
    Patrick P.
    18 March 2019 @ 14:18
    Ken ... Without notes a very good presentation....I agree with your analysis. Well worth my time. Thank You !
  • RM
    Ryan M.
    18 March 2019 @ 10:28
    The mention of Karl Marx a few times and now i cant help myself. Please, everyone, educate yourselves and those around you. Right now, and for a long time, USA meets 4 of 10 of Karl Marx's own "10 Tenants of Capitalism" OBJECTIVELY. 100%, no argument needed. USA also SUBJECTIVELY meets another 2 of 10. Depending on the arguments used you may have your own opinion on the matter but they are met to some degree. So here we are, 6 for 10 of Karl Marx's own top 10 of communism and everyone is freaking out about if "capitalism" works or not and regardless of what you or others think, the truth is we haven't had capitalism in a long, long time.